Michael A. HorowitzVerified account

SOHR claims Trump's decision to withdraw came as a shock for SDF commanders, effectively contradicting the situation on the ground as fuel and military equipment arrived to several SDF bases #Syria

Israel's ability to secure its interests in #Syria (should Trump go through with the withdrawal) would rely almost entirely on #Russia - a stunning reversal when considering the region's history

First reaction from #Israel: Israeli UN Ambassador says his country respects the US decision to withdraw. Israel has concerns about the Iranian presence in #Syria, will work with the US and Russia. (via @noa_landau)

New York Times quotes a source within the Administration as saying that an official confirmation of the US withdrawal from #Syria could be released as early as today. Pentagon officials are still trying to talk the president out of the decision

The US policy in #Syria sounds like Ariana Grande's last hit "Thank U, Next"

Beginning of a confirmationhttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1075397797929775105 …

What changed? Someone asked Trumphttps://twitter.com/abuaardvark/status/1075395912493608965 …

Regarless, this means any negotiations would be done under threat, which mean the SDF will have a clear incentive to give in to the regime #Syria

However, the timing of the US withdrawal will be critical: A swift withdrawal will invite not only a Turkish but also, potentially a pro-regime offensive to recapture key (oil-rich) areas. #Syria

I would expect that following this report the SDF will intensify negotiations with the regime (while having lost a lot of its leverage - Assad will have the upper hand) #Syria

The Reuters report does appear more realistic, as by doing so Washington would signal the beginning of a withdrawal phase that would still give the SDF enough time to fall back on its feet (though even so, the SDF may be squeezed between Turkey and the regime) #Syria

If the WSJ report is correct, this would send a lot of negative signals, including by showing (once again) that Washington is an unreliable ally, and that it can be bullied into changing course. #Syria

Two different versions here: WSJ says the US is "preparing" for a full and immediate withdrawal from northeastern #Syria, while Reuters says Washington is "considering" a withdrawal

Over the past years Israel has used the Ukrainian issue as a potential leverage, but always remained cautious not to actually side with Kiev on anything actually meaningful

Also wonder how this relates to #Israel's recent decision to back a UN resolution condemning the Russian occupation of Crimea and growing Russian military presence in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov