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  1. Pinned Tweet
    Aug 3

    NEW: “The Urgency of : The Impending Regime Offensive & the Delicate Balancing Act in ’s Northwest” My latest, in-depth look at , for :

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  2. And now, has gone & translated the *whole* bio -- Aymenn says the U.S. invasion of in 2003 was the key trigger. - “The notion that was the real key figure behind the evolution of [] rather than is highly tenuous”

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  3. . has also commented within this debate, claiming that the new bio suggests that had only "limited [&] early interactions" with Anbari & that the timeline within doesn't align with the claim that 's nature was bred by .

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  4. .'s theory (above - based on a newly revealed biography) that 's & his turn to ultra-sectarianism in was heavily influenced by Abu Ali al-Anbari has opened a big debate. - says the bio does not bear that claim out:

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  5. "There’s a hierarchy for booty... TVs are for officers, the fridges & washing machines are for the middle ranks & the wood & wiring pulled out of people’s abandoned homes is for the lower ranks. It’s disgusting" - on "The Looting of "

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  6. Retweeted
    Dec 13

    Worth mentioning that 's granular research on Syria's Republican Guard is entirely based on open source information — Facebook profiles and pages, to be more specifically. Looking forward to reading it.

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  7. Retweeted
    Dec 14

    New: A secret letter recently obtained through an inside source sheds light on ISIS’s efforts to persuade an al-Qaeda affiliate to jump ship, abandon its allegiance to Ayman al-Zawahri, and join Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s ranks

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  8. "The localization of jihad" - My [brief] 2018 in Review thoughts on what the last 12 months has meant for the evolution of the jihadist threat, for the :

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  9. "A Decisive Year in " - My [brief] 2018 in Review thoughts on what the last 12 months meant for , for the .

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  10. Looking back at this & it seems increasingly likely to me that the arrival of 100 Peshmerga into territories in NE *is* one piece of a process of U.S.- negotiations, aimed at preventing a 3rd Turkish intervention. A NE Pesh role has been a long demand.

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  11. After being asked about tensions with vis-a-vis the in the northeast, Amb. Jeffrey says the deployment overnight of 100 Peshmerga to NE was “done with our understanding and as one of several arrangements” being undertaken. Implies new deals underway?

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  12. When asked what the future looks like for the US relationship w the / in , Amb. Jeffrey stresses that the relationship is objective/driven (counter-) and thus “tactical.” The “eventual goal” is to allow the SDF to become part of the fabric of ’s society.

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  13. To a question from on rising tensions with , Amb. Jeffrey says “I believe the situation has calmed a bit,” and “we’re very focused on securing ’s concerns and completing the fight against ... I understand ’s concerns...”

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  14. Amb. Jeffrey says the formation of a Constitutional Committee would have an immediate effect of “politicizing & diplomatizing the conflict in .” It’ll help sustain existing ceasefires &/or stability, but would also open 2254 texts for a “comprehensive national ceasefire.”

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  15. Amb. Jeffrey says “we’re very close to a potential breakthrough or breakdown” on the UN-led attempt to negotiate the formation of a Constitutional Committee. “We believe there is a chance we’ll see a breakthrough.” (Rumors today that a tentative deal has been reached)

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  16. Amb. Jeffrey adds that despite this Great Power conflict status, is in a period of rare, relative stability - unlike anything seen in 7+ years. That, he says, is what the admin views as “a brief window of opportunity” to revitalize a political process.

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  17. In speech at , US Envoy Amb. Jeffrey says the crisis has evolved into “a Great Power conflict.” x5 great powers have military presence in , each pursuing legitimate national security interests. He says the admin views thru this lens.

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  18. Retweeted
    Dec 14
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  19. Very important landscape by - providing a valuable insight into post-conflict southern . - "‘Like a big prison’: Months into reconciliation, invisible borders still divide Syria’s southwest"

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  20. This is an interesting threat - it's been a close U.S.-/ relationship that has blocked / bombings in urban areas of (acc. to multiple U.S. officials). A resumption of such attacks would indicate a decline un U.S. leverage vis-a-vis vis-a-vis .

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  21. This car bomb attack was promptly claimed by the "Wrath of Olive" operations room - a resistance unit launched by the after the loss of . At least 50% of the casualties - 8 killed & 15+ wounded - hailed from .

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