Global Earthquake Forecast
The seismic indicator is an experimental service and is not expected to run with 100% accuracy. The magnitude range indicates a worst-case scenario. See below for forecast details.
M8.0 - M9.9
Impending earthquakes have been sending us warning signals — and people are starting to listen
Researchers in Taiwan monitored 144 earthquakes between 1997 and 1999, and they found that for those registering 6.0 and higher the electron content of the ionosphere changed significantly one to six days before the earthquakes. Read full article.
There appears to be a correlation between larger earthquakes - typically over 6 magnitude - and amplified electromagnetic waves in the Solar System.
This video explains in a simple way where these electromagnetic waves come from, when they are being amplified and how it also affects Earth's crust.
The Solar System Geomtry Index (SSGI) is used as an indicator for possible larger seismic activity on Earth. Read the whole story and see examples of large earthquakes in recent history here.
A new model of the SSGI chart is introduced with version 5.0 of Solpage. Where some earthquakes in the past did not show critical planetary geometry, the new model is aimed at filling these gaps.
So far, the new model looks promising. It will be fine-tuned where necessary to achieve 85 to 90 percent accuracy with forecasting larger earthquakes.
Watch the demonstration video.
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updated 24 August 2018, 21:18 UTC
Just like 2017, this year also had a gap of about 175 days between M7+ quakes, but how larger events resumed in August is totally different and much more extreme.
On July 16 I uploaded a warning that significant changes will occur from July/August to Christmas.
updated 6 December 2018, 10:45 UTC
Exceptional critical planetary geometry may trigger large seismic activity from the 7th to the 10th of December, possibly peaking 7.8 to 8.8 magnitude.
A smaller peak on the 11th may also indicate larger seismic activity from the 11th to the 13th, possibly peaking high 6 to 7 magnitude.
Estimates based on the planetary data indicate that the 9th-10th of December are the most likely days for a great earthquake.
See also the latest video updates.
updated 22 October 2018, 13:53 UTC
Three strong tremors occurred just off the coast of Vancouver Island in the morning of 22 October. The largest measured 6.8 magnitude at 06:16 UTC.
Although larger seismic activity occurs occasionally, on the Juan de Fuca plate, three consecutive tremors are a clear indication that stress is building non-stop along the North american West coast, including California where the last large earthquake occurred 29 years ago.
Of major concern is the Cascadia subduction zone where some forty earthquakes over 8 magnitude occurred in the past ten thousand years, which averages out to a big one every 240 years. The last time a mega-thrust earthquake ruptured the fault line off the coast of Oregon and Washington state was almost 319 years ago, on 27 January 1700, when Earth aligned with Mercury and Jupiter while Mercury also aligned with the Sun and Venus.
A warning video was uploaded yesterday that the last week of October is critical.
updated 19 August 2018, 14:19 UTC
An earthquake with magnitude 8.2 struck deep below the Fiji Region on the 19th at 0:19 UTC. It is the first large earthquake since 25 February and the first magnitude 8 since 8 September 2017.
Although an earthquake warning was given for 16 to 18 August, the magnitude of this seismic event was larger than anticipated.
updated 9 August 2018, 6:18 UTC
A strong earthquake with magnitude 6.9 struck the Lomok Region, Indonesia on 5 August, 2018. It is the first larger earthquake since May 4, when Hawaii was also struck by a magnitude 6.9 earthquake. A quake watch was in effect from 4 to 6 August due to critical planetary geometry.
updated 18 June 2018, 12:37 UTC
TOKYO -- A strong earthquake knocked over walls and set off scattered fires Monday morning around metropolitan Osaka in western Japan. At least three people were killed and more than 300 were injured. A warning was given for Japan, 6 days in advance. Read article
updated 16 June 2018, 22:09 UTC
The Sakurajima volcano in Kagoshima prefecture, southwestern Japan, saw an explosive eruption Saturday morning and no injury has been reported. Read article
updated 16 June 2018, 21:33 UTC
The volcano La Cumbre on Fernandina Island entered a new eruption process, said the Directorate of the Galapagos National Park (PNG) on Saturday.
The eruption of this volcano, almost 1,500 meters high, was confirmed this afternoon by the Geophysical Institute (IG) , the organization that earlier reported that the volcano presented seismic agitation, only nine months since its last process. Read article
updated 14 June 2018, 7:19 UTC
Colombian authorities are reporting significantly increased seismic activity under Galeras volcano, one of Colombia's most frequently active volcanos. Increased seismicity was first recorded on May 29 and June 2, 2018. The last eruption of this volcano took place in 2014 (VEI 2). Read article
updated 25 May 2018, 11:32 UTC
A strong earthquake with magnitude 6.9 occurred on the main island of Hawaii on 4 May 2018 at 22:32 UTC, following an intense seismic increase that started on 1 May. The strong tremor was followed by increased volcanic activity with fears of an imminent major eruption.
Hours before the quake struck a warning was issued that a mid 6 magnitude earthquake could strike later on the 4th or on the 5th due to the Moon's alignment with Saturn at 19:29 UTC.
The largest earthquake on record in Hawaii occurred in the same area on 29 November 1975 and had an estimated moment magnitude of 7.4. Since 1938 six earthquakes have occurred in Hawaii with magnitude 6.5 and higher. The previous one had an estimated moment magnitude of 6.7 and occurred on 15 October 2006 on the other side of the main island.
updated 26 January 2018, 7:13 UTC
An earthquake with magnitude 7.5 struck New Guinea, P.N.G. on 25 February, at 17:44 UTC. This large seismic activity was anticipated because of multiple planetary alignments converging on the same day. An earthquake warning was first given on January 11. A final warning video was uploaded on February 23.
updated 26 February 2018, 7:00 UTC
A magnitude 7.2 earthquake occurred in Oaxaca, Mexico on February 16 at 23:39 UTC. It was the third large earthquake since September to rattle Mexico.
A quake watch was in effect from the 17th to the 20th due to Earth's alignment with the Sun and Mercury. This was given five days in advance. More details are in the earthquake analysis video.
updated 23 January 2018, 21:16 UTC
A large earthquake with magnitude 7.9 shook the Gulf of Alaska on 23 January 2018 at 9:31 UTC. A possible 8+ magnitude earthquake was anticipated in an upcoming critical time-frame, but the large tremor occurred earlier than expected. A detailed analysis of the West and North Pacific was given in a video on 19 January.
Electromagnetic amplifications connected to the large earthquake are explained in a video that was published later on the 23rd.
updated 16 January 2018, 8:50 UTC
A major magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck near the coast of Southern Peru on January 14 at 9:18 UTC.
A quake watch was issued on January 11, that a high 6 magnitude earthquake could occur between the 13th and 15th.
The night before the major earthquake struck, the forecast on the website was revised to include a possible low magnitude 7 earthquake. For more information watch the earthquake review video.
updated 11 January 2018, 7:55 UTC
A major magnitude 7.6 earthquake struck on the Caribbean plate North of Honduras on January 10 at 2:51 UTC. A tsunami warning was issued by the USGS.
A first warning was issued on December 31, that maybe a 7 magnitude earthquake would occur between the 7th and 10th.
Another quake watch was issued on January 5 because of the critical planetary geometry from the 7th to the 9th. The forecast specifically mentioned that around the 9th would be most critical with the possibility of a mid to high 6 or even a 7 magnitude earthquake.
A detailed analysis of the planetary geometry and electromagnetic amplifications is covered in a youtube video.
updated 13 November 2017, 6:15 UTC
A major magnitude 7.2 earthquake struck the Iran/Iraq border region on November 12 at 18:18 UTC. There's been quite some fatalities and also a lot of damage, but fortunately no major city was hit.
Only hours later, at 22:24, a magnitude 5.9 occurred off the coast of Honshu, Japan.
Early on the 13th, at 2:28 UTC (local time 20:28) a powerful magnitude 6.7 earthquake occurred in Costa Rica.
This string of larger earthquakes was forecast four days in advance due to critical planetary geometry, as shown by the SSGI chart.
See also the forecast video.
updated 7 November 2017, 6:15 UTC
A magnitude 6.8 earthquake occurred on 4 November at Tonga. A seismic increase was anticipated from the 3rd to the 6th because of a large peak on the SSGI chart on the 3rd and 4th.
It is the second large SSGI peak in a week indicating a possible seismic increase. The previous peak was from 28 to 29 October, and it was followed also by a magnitude 6.8 earthquake, on 31 October. It is very typical for critical planetary geometry to be followed by increased seismic activity with a delay up to two-and-a-half days.
See also the forecast video.
updated 31 October 2017, 7:26 UTC
A magnitude 6.8 earthquake occurred on 31 October Southeast of Loyalty Islands. A seismic increase was anticipated from the 28th to the 30th because of a peak on the SSGI chart on the 28th and 29th.
This is another major forecast success based on critical planetary geometry without planetary alignments. These cases are pretty rare. The first time that this happened since the introduction of SSGI was on 18 August when a large peak was followed by a magnitude 6.7 earthquake in the Ascension Islands Region.
See also the forecast video.
updated 17 October 2017, 10:57 UTC
Oaxaca, Mexico is having tons of 4+ quakes since September. It wasn't directly hit by the big quakes, but on September 8, starting with a 5.5 no less than 452 4+ quakes have struck there out of 651 since January. That's about 70% that struck in just over 5 weeks...
updated 20 September 2017, 07:25 UTC
A powerful earthquake struck the state of Puebla, Mexico on September 19. The damaging tremor had an estimated moment magnitude of 7.1 at a depth of 50 kilometers. It was widely felt, also in Mexico City. Mexico was already hit by a magnitude 8.1 earthquake earlier this month. See also the forecast evaluation video.
updated 8 September 2017, 10:36 UTC
A major earthquake struck offshore Chiapas, Mexico early on September 8. The tremor had an estimated moment magnitude of 8.1. This seismic increase was expected and warnings were issued seven days in advance. See also the explanation video.
updated 18 August 2017, 12:05 UTC
See also the video update.
A magnitude 6.7 earthquake occurred on 18 August at the Ascension Islands. This larger seismic activity was expected for the 16th-17th because of an amplification showing on the SSGI chart on the 15th and 16th.
This is a major forecast success because there were no planetary alignments in the solar system since 5 August.
The SSGI chart was developed in the last week of July and the first two weeks of August. Its algorithm is based on observations and analyses of large earthquakes and planetary configurations in the last three years.
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M 6.7
5 December 2018, 6:43 UTC
Southeast of Loyalty Islands
M 7.6
5 December 2018, 4:18 UTC
Southeast of Loyalty Islands
M 8.2
19 August 2018, 00:19 UTC
Fiji Region
A very critical planetary configuration on 21 December 2018 may trigger a large earthquake between December 21 and 25, 2018. Current estimation is high 7 to 8 magnitude.
This is a very timely warning (July 16) because many people around the world are already planning their Christmas holidays.
In addition, some significant changes are expected from August to December, primarily due to the absence of larger earthquakes in May, June and July.
Watch the video.
From February 2017 to June 2018, only 11 magnitude 7+ earthquakes occurred according to the EMSC. While statistically this is much lower than the average of 20 days, how well did we forecast them? Download the pdf file in order to find out if we reached our goal of 80%!
Two magnitude 5.7 earthquakes occurred at the North Pole on 28 October 2017 at 16:14 and 16:16 UTC according to the NEIC. The tremors, pretty rare in this area, were then followed by a magnitude 6.0 earthquake on the same day at 19:11 UTC. This seismic increase coincided with critical planetary geometry according to the SSGI.
A major earthquake with magnitude 7.7 occurred in the Komandorskiye Ostrova Region on 17 July 2017. The powerful tremor occurred at 23:34 following a magnitude 6.2 in the same location earlier on the day. It is the first magnitude 7+ earthquake in 175 days. The previous one - a magnitude 7.9 - occurred on 22 January. On the 16th a forecast video was uploaded stating that a 6+ and possibly a 7+ magnitude earthquake was expected between the 16th and 18th of July.
A moderate to strong earthquake with magnitude 5.8 occurred in Montana on 6 July 2017 at 6:30 UTC. It is the first magnitude 5.6+ earthquake in the region since 1983. It follows a seismic increase that was observed in Yellowstone in June. Some notable signs of building pressure in the Northwestern part of the USA were observed on 26 and 27 June.
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