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  1. Pinned Tweet
    Aug 3

    NEW: “The Urgency of : The Impending Regime Offensive & the Delicate Balancing Act in ’s Northwest” My latest, in-depth look at , for :

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  2. Envoy De Mistura is staying on for an extra month - to try [again] to create a 3-tier constitutional committee. Odds are against him - has *completely* rejected *any* foreign role in constitutional issues.

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  3. Clearly, the U.S. cannot & isn't going to break it relationship w. the /, but it cannot continue to sustain the status quo either. indicates a rare piece of progress, it's still far outweighed by many negative obstacles/challenges.

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  4. My new Monday Brief looks at Amb. Jeffrey's comments last week on the being a affiliate. - "Ultimately, the new US strategy cannot sustain itself so long as remains at best a competitor & at worst an adversary."

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  5. Interesting: interviewed a -n Kataib fighter, trained in & who fought across the country & into (in al-Qaim). He's paid from a bank, with some salary coming from ... " is responsible for all."

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  6. AQ's "Rouse the Believers" ops room - responsible for killing "18+" pro- fighters late last week, issued a detailed claim for that attack & another statement reaffirming their determination to "break the occupier's conspiracies & deals" in , , & .

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  7. More violence hit NW over the weekend, w. multiple pro- artillery barrages hitting areas in N. /S. ; SE Idlib & W. . The pro- "Rouse the Believers" ops room also conducted 3+ attacks & the -backed fired two Grad volleys on 2 targets.

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  8. Rumors spread on social media over the weekend that a team of "" officials & possibly soldiers had passed through -controlled areas of Deir ez Zour to meet with local tribal figures to discuss & anti- issues. Intriguing.

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  9. : Speaking of bubbling discontent in 's south, this piece by does a good job at detailing regime arrests of civilians & former fighters, despite -brokered "reconciliation" agreements.

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  10. Although this is a very small movement [at least for now], the emergence of "popular resistance" talk in is significant. It's been 4 months since the fall of southern to // -- discontent has been rumbling under the surface for some time.

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  11. was struck by armed conflict through the weekend, as the -backed " National Army" fought the Shuhada al-Sharqiya group - widely accused of criminality. 36hrs later, the group (~300 fighters + families) has surrendered & agreed to evacuate... to .

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  12. Nov 17

    was brutally murdered in what appears to have been, by all accounts, a premeditated act. That’s all that should matter, and the only thing that should be on people’s minds. Distracting with allegations of personal misbehaviors is just that: a distraction.

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  13. Nov 16

    : Watch the video for yourself - look at strikes at 1:00, 1:07 and 1:10. Interested in people's thoughts. We know these munitions exist, but not for UAVs, which would presumably be responsible for strikes in NW .

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  14. Nov 16

    : The U.S. military just released an interesting video showing precision-guided munition testing. Look at these ones... Though the munitions are likely larger, the result is exactly the same - punch a hole direct through the target, but no high-order explosion.

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  15. Nov 16

    Remember the mysterious strike that killed Al-Qaeda global deputy Abu al-Khayr al-Masri in , in Feb 2017? It appeared to use an inert kinetic penetrator (without explosives). Pinpoint accuracy, but no sign of any explosion...

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  16. Nov 16

    : The pro- attack in followed a clash between -backed & pro- units in western on 15 Nov, which reportedly killed several. also just claimed killing 3 pro-regime personnel in a sniper attack near Khan Touman, southern .

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  17. Nov 16

    IMPORTANT - "Rouse the Believers" ops room (AQ loyalists) killed 18+ pro- fighters in 's Jabal al-Akrad, early this AM - acknowledged by pro-regime sources. The same AQ ops room killed 2 more troops in sniper attacks in Maan, north . More escalation.

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  18. Retweeted

    Amb Jeffrey: We think that you cannot have an enduring defeat of ISIS until you have fundamental change in the Syrian regime & fundamental change in ’s role in , which contributed greatly to the rise of ISIS in the first place in 2013, 2014.

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  19. Nov 16

    Yesterday morning, fighters manning a checkpoint near the M5 highway stopped & interfered with a military convoy - ordering it to use other transit points in the future. (via ) Watch to see if this happens again; a key indicator for 's future.

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  20. Retweeted
    Nov 15

    AQ-loyalist group Tanzim Huras al-Din has taken 7 fighters prisoner in , . Amid localized rising tensions there, HaD has established several new checkpoints, stopping every passing person for questioning. [image via )

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  21. Nov 15

    This is indeed interesting, but it's not the first time has operated M60s. ISIS had an M60 in the in mid-2016 & another briefly in al-Bab, , after capturing it damaged from .

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