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AbuJamajem's profile
Sam Heller
Sam Heller
Sam Heller
@AbuJamajem

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Sam Heller

@AbuJamajem

Senior Analyst, Non-State Armed Groups, @CrisisGroup. Looking at jihadism, one eye still on Syria. Jamajem means 🏴‍☠️. Contact: https://about.me/sam.heller 

Beirut, Lebanon
crisisgroup.org/who-we-are/peo…
Joined September 2011

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    Sam Heller‏ @AbuJamajem Nov 7

    Sam Heller Retweeted Charles Lister

    For countries aiming to check Iran’s influence, there’s more than one approach to Syria: • Write off Damascus as hopelessly Iran-owned and oppose it, or • Co-invest in Damascus to diversify its base of support and reduce its reliance on Iran, strengthening an independent Syria.https://twitter.com/charles_lister/status/1060201457553686528 …

    Sam Heller added,

    Charles ListerVerified account @Charles_Lister
    There are more & more indications of a #UAE rapprochement w. #Assad, possibly paving the way for #Saudi to follow suit.…
    10:28 AM - 7 Nov 2018
    • 44 Retweets
    • 68 Likes
    • Al jaro Niamh McBurney Jacob Santiago Pittamiglio Tarron Nati portnoy Diba Nigar Goksel Within Syria
    17 replies 44 retweets 68 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Sam Heller‏ @AbuJamajem Nov 7

        A more adversarial approach has left Arab backers of the opposition with little useful influence in Syria, an Arab country that is geographically central and politically crucial to the region, and whose fate is now being negotiated by Turks, Persians and Russians – non-Arabs.

        1 reply 3 retweets 17 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Sam Heller‏ @AbuJamajem Nov 7

        Some of them are convinced they made a mistake in Iraq after 2003, allowing another pillar of the Arab order to be pulled into Iran’s orbit – a self-defeating error they’re uninterested in repeating.

        2 replies 3 retweets 12 likes
        Show this thread
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Charles Lister‏Verified account @Charles_Lister Nov 7
        Replying to @AbuJamajem

        Gosh, thanks I'd never thought of that.

        2 replies 1 retweet 24 likes
      3. Nicholas A Heras‏ @NicholasAHeras Nov 7
        Replying to @Charles_Lister @AbuJamajem

        1-Hi gents. Interesting back and forth. I think you're right to focus on Abu Dhabi here. It's investing in US Zone in N/E Syria too, and is engaged in SW as well. Everywhere except Turkey zone it seems. Abu Dhabi has been getting back in Syria business. @joshua_landis @hxhassan

        3 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
      4. Nicholas A Heras‏ @NicholasAHeras Nov 7
        Replying to @NicholasAHeras @Charles_Lister and

        2-Seems like this is Abu Dhabi trying for leverage throughout Syria to squeeze Turkey/Qatar/Iran, and could mean Abu Dhabi sees a growth opportunity to spread influence and tweak Turkey/Qatar/Iran in strategic Syria. But I don't see it yet as a "win," yet, for Assad.

        1 reply 2 retweets 4 likes
      5. Hassan Hassan‏Verified account @hxhassan Nov 8
        Replying to @NicholasAHeras @Charles_Lister and

        Good points. Agreement or disagreement aside, this approach makes perfect sense for Abu Dhabi, which unlike others has been largely consistent on reversal of what it views as wrong policies taken in the past re Syria. Or even then. 1/2

        1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
      6. Hassan Hassan‏Verified account @hxhassan Nov 8
        Replying to @hxhassan @NicholasAHeras and

        I personally think that if a power's objective in Syria is merely to weaken Iran there, then actively strengthening (not just not-weakening) Damascus would be the only logical conclusion. It's a strange concept to me. Half-measures, the current policy, only make matters worse 2/2

        1 reply 2 retweets 6 likes
      7. Hassan Hassan‏Verified account @hxhassan Nov 8
        Replying to @hxhassan @NicholasAHeras and

        (The concept of framing the goal as weakening Iran, while not challenging Assad but also not strengthening him). In this sense, the UAE approach (actively normalising ties with Assad with the determination to weaken his enemies & his allies' grip over SYR) is better than the US's

        1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
      8. Charles Lister‏Verified account @Charles_Lister Nov 8
        Replying to @hxhassan @NicholasAHeras

        All good points @hxhassan, there’s undoubtedly a UAE-unique logic here.. but it also assumes #Assad would prefer to re-engage his enemies than sustain relationships with his never-bending allies, #Iran chief among them. I’m far from convinced #Assad will do such a 180.

        1 reply 2 retweets 5 likes
      9. Hassan Hassan‏Verified account @hxhassan Nov 8
        Replying to @Charles_Lister @NicholasAHeras

        Yes, the formula was tested before 2011. So it should begin by revisiting that period and see why it failed, or whether the new reality makes it less or more likely.

        1 reply 1 retweet 0 likes
      10. 6 more replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Oz Katerji‏ @OzKaterji Nov 8
        Replying to @AbuJamajem

        At literally every single point of this war, your opinion has been that the West has to accept and work with a dictator running death camps that uses nerve agents to murder children. You actually get paid to continually spout this offensive in humane garbage.

        1 reply 1 retweet 28 likes
      3. Oz Katerji‏ @OzKaterji Nov 8
        Replying to @OzKaterji @AbuJamajem

        I’m sorry I really don’t understand how you are continually cited by people when your solution to Idlib was the forced displacement of millions of Syrians into Turkey. You literally went around the country asking why people weren’t getting prepped for ethnic cleansing.

        1 reply 1 retweet 11 likes
      4. 1 more reply
      1. #AidToRukban‏ @WASBAPPIN Nov 8
        Replying to @AbuJamajem

        File under "I don't support Assad, but"

        0 replies 2 retweets 14 likes
        Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
        Undo
      1. New conversation
      2. Joshua Landis‏Verified account @joshua_landis Nov 8
        Replying to @AbuJamajem

        Joshua Landis Retweeted EHSANI2

        Here is the original post about this by @EHSANI22 - @AbuJamajem Worth reading.https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1060193577861595136 …

        Joshua Landis added,

        EHSANI2 @EHSANI22
        SIGNIFICANT: #SYRIA #UAE #SAUDI ARE ON CUSP OF FORMING A NEW REGIONAL ALLIANCE TO DEFEAT THE…
        Show this thread
        1 reply 3 retweets 11 likes
      3. 1 more reply
      1. New conversation
      2. jaro‏ @LaconicJaro Nov 7
        Replying to @AbuJamajem @WithinSyriaBlog

        How can someone be this stupid. He’s not even stupid, he knows what he’s doing.

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. Within Syria‏ @WithinSyriaBlog Nov 7
        Replying to @LaconicJaro @AbuJamajem

        he is not stupid, he understand whats going on very well

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Lars Hauch‏ @LarsHauch Nov 7
        Replying to @AbuJamajem

        The result of "co-investing in Damascus", whatever that means, might be a larger number of partners that the Syrian government can play off against each other, but that doesn't mean that Syria will become less dependent in any way.

        1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
      3. Michael Thompson‏ @_antiphasis Nov 8
        Replying to @LarsHauch @AbuJamajem

        Yes, it very obviously does mean (supposing anything comes of it) that Damascus will be less dependent on Putin or Rouhani or anyone else in particular. If it had happened a year ago Syria would still have hope of retaining the northwest.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation

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