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  1. Pinned Tweet
    Aug 3

    NEW: “The Urgency of : The Impending Regime Offensive & the Delicate Balancing Act in ’s Northwest” My latest, in-depth look at , for :

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  2. BIG statement from U.S. Special Envoy for Hostage Affairs: - "I want to make it very clear that the United States government believes that is alive."

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  3. Retweeted
    15 hours ago

    Briefing: Attacks and reprisals lead to rapid escalation in northwest Syria -

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  4. -ese journalist recently released from captivity in NW suggests he may have been held by Al-Qaeda - specifically by Tanzim Huras al-Din & the Turkistan Islamic Party. One of his fellow prisoners was a member of Jabhat al-Nusra (i.e. ).

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  5. In a 4-month campaign, fired 21,000 munitions on - or ~175 per day. says the U.S. was responsible for 95% of all strikes. The says +80% of the city was destroyed or heavily damaged.

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  6. The has admitted 104 civilian deaths from air & artillery strikes in . US-backed civilian rescue teams on the ground say it's actually "thousands" (2,600 & counting.) + They need another year to clear the city of corpses under the rubble.

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  7. Interesting by , who suggests incoming UN Envoy should "freeze UN sponsorship" of the currently "fake" political process until "relevant actors" prove "their commitment to moving it forward."

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  8. On the subject of there being x2 jihadist models, defined by clarified lines & in a state of competition, note my paper from Nov 2017, here: I'd also add that today's framing of this discussion in binary terms is wrong - we're now in a 3-model world.

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  9. Retweeted
    Nov 7

    Check out my new article published by assessing the dire state of 's economy & disproportionate distribution of wealth, as the war winds down loyalists will continue to dissent if the current state of the economy continues. (Thread)

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  10. As the resumes it's offensive on around , crisis diplomacy is far from over, between: - U.S - /// - Arab Tribes - has has to turn its attention back to the micro-level. This is interesting, too:

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  11. Those two major incidents on 8-9 Nov have been followed by 10+ significant violations: (1) by pro-regime forces; (2) by and (3) by the Al-Qaeda-linked "Rouse the Believers" operations room, in: - Northern - Southeast - Eastern How long can this last?

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  12. : In a report by & , of Malhama Tactical says that 4 senior officers and "7 -ns" (soldiers or PMCs?) were killed in that attack, which'd be a major escalation, virtually guaranteeing a reply.

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  13. : That pro-regime attack catalyzed a retaliatory "special" operation by & "Malhama Tactical" (a jihadi military contractor outfit) late on 9th Nov - which infiltrated 1km to attack a "Reconciliation Center" in northern , reportedly killing 18 Syrians & 7 Russians.

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  14. The situation in northwest took a significant escalation over the last few days, beginning with: Late on 8th Nov, pro-regime forces launched an assault across de-escalation lines on an FSA Jaish al-Izzeh HQ in northern - killing 23 & wounding 15+ = a major incident.

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  15. Retweeted
    Nov 11

    To a wider audience, this should be seen as a largely symbolic move, given the extent of opposition & ridicule this has received from the mainstream opposition & surrounding civilian populous. Within however, this only adds to the existing quandary as to identity & future.

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  16. Nov 11

    : As 's northwest de-escalation continues [while slowly eroding], 's internal divides are becoming clearer -- one side doubling-down on a pragmatic posture to achieve survival // another seeking to advance gradual escalation to re-emphasize/rescue jihadi credibility.

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  17. Nov 8

    The doctored video of 's posted by is a direct copy of a manipulated video posted by... Infowars. Well there you go. Thanks .

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  18. Nov 8

    More bad news from re. the “defeated” . - was just hit by the first car bomb attack since the city’s capture in July 2017. 7+ killed & 20+ wounded.

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  19. Nov 8

    In a follow-up, asks Ken Pollack, “so how do you end the war in ?” While adding that negotiated settlements are possible, Pollack says they don’t work w/o military intervention. He says the US should back to take , to catalyze meaningful talks.

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  20. Nov 8

    Ken Pollack tells that the US could probably end ’s conventional military intervention in ... BUT, that won’t end the civil war there. ’s missile threat to is very real, and it’s not going away. Getting to stop bombing isn’t a solution.

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