EHSANI2

2-On #Saudi : No question that Riyadh/Damascus rapprochement is difficult to foresee. Note that this shift is being led #UAE and not Saudi. Riyadh is expected to follow and yes, reluctantly. Damascus is just as easy about this given Saudi’s early support of the Opp. BUT ==>

3-When discussing Riyadh/Damascus, it’s critical to think about Qatari/Saudi schism. If forced to choose, who should Damascus side with? Answer: #Saudi . Why? #Qatar is ardent supporter of the Moslem Brotherhood (enemy of both Damascus & Riyadh). Doha is also still supporting Opp

4- #UAE: #Dubai in particular is interested in regional Economic stability & religious moderation. It is the key initial player in this process & was instrumental in bringing Abu Dhabi into the fold before paving the way to conclude this successful initiative few days ago

5-Thus far, Saudi was not a direct participant in this initiative. This is expected to change in due course as Abu Dhabi takes the role of prodding its strong ally to see the strategic value in embracing this process. This will take as much time as #UAE needs. Odds are favorable

6-#Iran has been an ally of #Syria for nearly 4 decades. It was the only country that came to the defense of Damascus for over 4 years into the war. The same goes for #Hizbollah . It is inconceivable that Syria will ever betray its two allies. Will it be rather tricky? Yes, BUT..

7-For past 7y, Damascus was accused of losing its sovereignty to Tehran. Almost daily, #Syria experts wrote countless opinion pieces on how #Iran controlled Syria & how Assad was a puppet of Tehran. This deal is an opportunity to prove Syria’s ability to make its own decisions

8-Syria will have to explain to its allies this deal is a sound strategic decision that will enhance stability. It will find partners who are willing to join fight against MB ideology. Above logic ought to satisfy Iranian concerns. Syria can go back to pre 2011 & keep its allies

9-How would #Russia handle its relationship w #Turkey post this deal? #Syria is not occupying Turkey but the reverse. Syria did not open its borders for 7 years and made it a highway for jihadis but the reverse. With or without this deal, Damascus will not rest till Turkey leaves

10-Being a strong ally of #Syria , #Russia has entered what seems like a long engagement with Turkey to help bring a peaceful resolution to #Idlib . Damascus called this phase "temporary". The ball is in court of both Turkey & Russia to deliver, hopefully by year end

11-This deal is tacit admission that the region needs stable #Syria . Gulf capitals know by now that only by helping bring this stability can they expect less Iranian involvement in Damascus. Common goal now is to defeat MB ideology and help Syria stand on its feet again