Aaron Stein

@aaronstein1

Senior Resident Fellow ; Author, Turkey's New Foreign Policy: . Contributing editor at War on the Rocks. Views are all my own

DC - Istanbul - Bursa
turkeywonk.wordpress.com
Joined June 2009
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  1. 1 hour ago

    Scorching hot take here.

    PKK and Daesh were controlled by U.S. military officers while fighting Turkey
    3 replies 3 retweets 11 likes
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  2. 17 hours ago

    Yes. All of this. Every word.

    Hey guys? Just FYI any threat to "sanction" SWIFT is entirely empty. U.S. secondary sanctions are usually effective because the U.S. market is more important to the target than continuing to service Iranian business AND cutting off a particular company doesnt pose systemic risk
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  3. Retweeted
    20 hours ago

    Jacob Wohl’s fake investigations firm took $1200 from a woman, then disappeared.

    144 replies 611 retweets 1,354 likes
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  4. 24 hours ago

    Insightful essay

    Re-posting because America is living this 24/7 now:
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  5. Nov 2

    Pastor Brunson didn’t make the list

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  6. Nov 2

    There was no deal. On round 2 it was an ultimatum. But this was a logical confidence building measure.

    And here comes the US part of the deal: sanctions have been lifted on the two ministers - Soylu and Gul - punished during the pastor's detention. But yes, the release was of course just a decision by 's "independent judiciary".
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  7. Nov 1

    Turks answering to Americans along the outskirts of Manbij wasn’t a tantalizing opening gambit. But it is where we ended up.

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  8. Nov 1

    One of the many reasons for the slow pace of the Roadmap implementation is this: "A designated and bilaterally agreed upon ground force commander will lead the joint patrols.”

    2 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
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  9. Nov 1

    The question I have is why the USG cares about Hajin.

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  10. Oct 31

    The minor discrepancies in the TR narrative on Jamal K strike me as having to do with protecting sources & methods, & Not necessarily indicative of deal-making. Sharing audio (reportedly) w/ Haspel is sign of professionalism, knowing theyre talking to a pro, & it’ll be briefed up

    1 reply 11 retweets 28 likes
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  11. Oct 31

    Would rather have access to the entirety of the fuel cycle for 25 years.

    .: The Trump administration will cont. to reveal regime’s illicit revenue streams, malign activities, crooked self-dealing & savage oppression. The Iranian people deserve to know grotesque level of self-interest that fuels regime’s actions.
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  12. Oct 31

    Which should inform US thinking about the efficacy of intervention in general and the viability of partnered operations as a model. If we really stop and ask ourselves about IS narrowly, but also Turkey more broadly, the question should be about the efficacy of intervention

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  13. Oct 31

    IS’s biggest strategic folly was taking urban territory, where they clustered and were susceptible to overwhelming force. But if we do a post-mortem here, the issue will be capability in failed states to control rural terrain (some as during the “surge”).

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  14. Oct 31

    ISIS is territorially defeated. Hajin is nice. But by any metric, IS as territorial entity is dead. Its resurgence as a rural insurgency is certain to be the an ongoing issue — and could lead to return. This is important, given the challenges of rural insurgency in general.

    4 replies 12 retweets 30 likes
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  15. Retweeted
    Oct 30

    Yesterday, "the Good ISIS" released a new report on Iran’s nuclear program, using evidence from the Israeli-seized “Atomic Archive” in Tehran to cast doubt on Iran’s intentions: But the major points are not new and reinforce the case for JCPOA. 1/9

    5 replies 42 retweets 78 likes
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  16. Oct 31

    The roadmap is conditions based. An easy way to define a condition is "no violence along the entirety of the FLOT." Until this condition met, moving to joint patrols, and then vetting should be frozen. Shelling and ATGM launches surely count as violence. As does SALW skirmishes

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  17. Oct 31

    USG has to be firm (if it intends to stay in Syria, which is something I disagree with). A policy of concessions just incentivizes Turkish action. What we are seeing is a repeat of the Manbij roadmap. Although, this time the intent is to pressure the Kobane Landing Zone. <end>

    6 replies 6 retweets 18 likes
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  18. Oct 31

    Managing Turkey requires taking Erdogan seriously and not looking for alternative meanings. Yes, there is some political benefit for his base. But the YPG issue is considered, by many, to be an existential issue for national security. So it transcends politics

    2 replies 17 retweets 20 likes
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  19. Oct 31

    I often hear that “Turkey can be managed” with a mix of talks and concessions (roadmap and delegations). This just doesn’t fit: See Operation Sun (2008), Operation Euphrates Shield, Operation Olive Branch, Manbij Roadmap.

    2 replies 8 retweets 19 likes
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  20. Oct 31

    Using the option of military intervention to support a preferred policy outcome has been a staple of Turkish foreign policy since mid-to-late 1990s. USG should take the threat of escalation in Kobane very seriously.

    10 replies 31 retweets 47 likes
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