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  1. Pinned Tweet
    Aug 3

    NEW: “The Urgency of : The Impending Regime Offensive & the Delicate Balancing Act in ’s Northwest” My latest, in-depth look at , for :

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  2. Excellent, important report by - laying out lessons learned from stabilization programming in -- key takeaway for policymakers: - High-level strategy *and* actions must be paired with the nature & goals of stabilization work.

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  3. “He's from a newer generation of diplomats ready to employ innovative ways, a more inclusive approach & to work with all those involved, including non-state actors” - on the UN’s new Special Envoy, :

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  4. An intriguing move trying to undercut the , but MaT doesn’t have the manpower to do this efficiently/effectively. Would be interested to know if they’d reached out to the Shay’tat though, who’ve amassed several thousand fighters near .

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  5. Retweeted

    Very good by : "Iran appears now to be shifting the emphasis of its military enhancement from Syria to Lebanon."

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  6. Retweeted

    In our for this week, the 's examines how 's efforts to consolidate its position in by enhancing 's presence, raises the risks of confrontation with :

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  7. The /’s offensive on the Hajin pocket -- ostensibly a small town & a patch of desert to the border -- began 7.5 weeks ago & has advanced little. 700 “special forces” reinforcements (from northern & ) just arrived, after heavy weekend losses.

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  8. The / has suspended its “final” counter- offensive, in , eastern - blaming 's shelling of & . Notably, the suspension also comes after the #YPG#SDF had struggled to advance against - taking heavy losses, repeatedly.

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  9. Retweeted

    vs. in the Levant: What’s Next?” - My latest for , looks at the possibility that has shifted, to consolidating in & enhancing in … raising the risk of escalation and/or war with .

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  10. Continued strikes on / in risk a conflict spiral, but mechanisms are in place to help prevent that. No such mechanisms exist in , where a single strike could easily spiral into a “catastrophic” war. That’s now more likely… my latest, here:

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  11. intel used an crime boss linked to to negotiate a NORINCO arms deal, to send weapons to & then to . The deal, arranged in & revealed ’s role in money laundering & drug trafficking.

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  12. As we count down the days before the 1st ‘joint’ US- patrol in/around , is turning up the heat on the /. Areas around were shelled overnight. = The / responded w. an ATGM strike on a TSK vehicle this morning:

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  13. Retweeted
    Oct 30

    The entire structure of the - mapped entirely through their own Facebook posts. My latest for - Core leadership - Group and sub-group affiliations - Areas of recruitment - Estimated sizes

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  14. Oct 30

    After a day of clashes, & the have agreed to abide by a ceasefire in western (began at 10pm local). Faylaq al-Sham & local clerics mediated the truce - but their issues have yet to be resolved.

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  15. Oct 30

    Good to hear has been appointed as the new UN Special Envoy for , replacing outgoing envoy Staffan de Mistura (via ). A big responsibility & as De Mistura laid out to the UNSC last week, huge challenges to keep 2254 alive amid spoiling.

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  16. Retweeted
    Oct 29

    Briefing: Following four-party Istanbul summit, Syrian political process remains at a standstill -

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  17. Oct 30

    Report suggests has captured Kafra Hamra, after clashes with member, Ahrar al-Sham: () also present in the area.

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  18. Oct 30

    A claim here that 400-500 -backed fighters based in have been sent to western to reinforce () frontlines against , amid intensifying infighting. Any move would depend on ’s permission. It’d be a major development, if confirmed.

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  19. Oct 30

    reports capturing Tel al-Sheikh Khadr from , outside - amid a day of inter-factional fighting. If this goes on much longer, Ahrar al-Sham is likely to be sucked in, making this substantially more difficult to stop/reverse.

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  20. Oct 30

    The fighting between & in west is spreading - clashes reported in Jamiat al-Zahrah, Anadan, Darat Izzeh, Kafr Naha & outside Kafra Hamra. Artillery shelling & heavy machine gun fire reported & multiple casualties. This is now going beyond localized fighting.

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