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  1. Pinned Tweet
    Aug 3

    NEW: “The Urgency of : The Impending Regime Offensive & the Delicate Balancing Act in ’s Northwest” My latest, in-depth look at , for :

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  2. in needs confronting, no doubt. I’ve advocated for that for years. But it requires a far more intelligent effort, exploiting complex dynamics/actors and utilizing granular intelligence. Dumb, black/white blanket strategies will exacerbate the threat, not defeat it.

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  3. As someone who’s specifically studied AQ in since 2011, I can say with total confidence that there aren’t even 20,000 AQ members in all of , let alone in city. Official AQ numbers would be 3,000-4,000. "AQ-linked" members nationwide? Perhaps 16,000-18,000.

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  4. . just told the House Armed Services Committee that there are "20,000-30,000 Al-Qaeda terrorists in control of the city of .” And that the U.S. currently acts as “the protector of Al-Qaeda." Errr, nope. On all accounts.

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  5. NW tensions rising, cont’d: 7. Just an hour ago, an commander was assassinated as his vehicle was ambushed driving approx. 20km south of Darat Izza. Watch this space.

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  6. NW tensions rising, cont’d: 4. Now, appears to have been forced to withdraw from Darat Izza altogether. 5. Some reports say leader ordered the withdrawal, to avoid inviting broader anti- hostilities. 6. jets now flying along border.

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  7. Tensions rising in NW today: 1. Zinki () detained several members in Darat Izza on suspicion of involvement in a recent bomb attack. 2. went on high alert & captured several local members. 3. deployed reinforcements to the town amid threats.

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  8. Colonel Anatoliy Chepiga - reveals the identity of one of the attackers… a highly decorated officer, operating under the alias "Ruslan Boshirov.” Kudos & co. - extraordinary work.

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  9. : also rightly says the - talks resulted from uncertainty over the US stance in & to the /. But - devil’s advocate - wouldn’t US formal political cover to “Rojava” => an all-out conflict with , which DC is unlikely to engage in?

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  10. : Moreover, rightly acknowledges the /’s roots in the , which she also identifies as a designated terrorist organization in the U.S A tactical military relationship to combat is just about justifiable, but giving cover to a DTO political entity?

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  11. Good piece, with some logical analysis, but some flaws too: - While acknowledging the /’s aggressive stranglehold over NE politics, says that’ll loosen only once the U.S. gives political legitimacy to the ’s project. Really? Can we be so sure?

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  13. Important indeed. Though the headline is misleading - Jabhat Ghuraba al-Sham (which existed until early-2014) never received any "Western" assistance.

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  14. Retweeted
    Sep 25

    I’m not sure I can find anything in this that is new - this half-in/half-out policy was in place from Day 1. That some think its an exclusive, revealing a dramatic new reality just goes to how little depth was involved in assessing U.S. strategy in , from to .

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  15. Sep 25

    How illustrative of the state of ’s Party: - Jewish MP requires a UK police escort… to attend today’s 2018 Labour Party conference.

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  16. Sep 25

    Some good news - 29 personnel & 70 family members have been granted asylum in the UK. - said: "The actions of the White Helmets demonstrate true modern day heroism. We welcome the first White Helmets to be resettled in the UK."

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  17. Retweeted
    Sep 25

    Make sure to watch the discussion on our livestream, starting now

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  18. Sep 25

    UN Envoy De Mistura’s office employs 92 people - with his “mediation” operation costing $1.4 million a month. - "It’s a waste of jet fuel & diplomatic credibility,” says

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  19. Retweeted
    Sep 25

    Assad the great vanquisher of ISIS is one of the more comical claims his apologists have made. He’s ISIS’s travel agent.

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  20. Sep 25

    Att'n : - “Open-source intelligence [is] a powerful & respected tool capable of uncovering secrets hidden in plain view…vast majority of this info comes from civil society & regular citizens" Important factual corrective by :

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  21. Sep 25

    In the category of least surprising news of the day, here’s something from , vis-a-vis in & ’s attempts to message extra deterrence:

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