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  1. Pinned Tweet
    Aug 3

    NEW: “The Urgency of : The Impending Regime Offensive & the Delicate Balancing Act in ’s Northwest” My latest, in-depth look at , for :

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  2. Retweeted

    The irony in this claim is extraordinary. The true danger to civilian aircraft is posed by ’s failure to provide “friend-foe” tech to AD/SAM sales. ’s missiles have been flying blind all this time, which is truly shocking.

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  3. . posts a video of its staff walking through , seemingly amid looting of water tankers/boiler systems.

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  4. Retweeted

    Well Russia, if you dont export IFF with your anti-aircraft systems, you can expect to score an Own Goal.

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  5. ** Seymour Hersh - "Why, if a civil war starts, is he [] the cause?” ** : “You see, this is the problem with you, you do come across as a sympathizer…” ** Hersh: “Are you kidding?” (That exchange speaks volumes…)

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  6. National Security Advisor , makes a significant policy statement at : - U.S. troops are not leaving "as long as -ian troops are outside Iranian borders' (Pic via )

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  7. is 3.3% of , not 12%. (6,097 km2 of 185,180 km2 nationwide) , whose data is based on on-the-ground fieldwork across , claim the IDP + resident population of & its periphery is 3.5 million. ()

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  8. : Finally, has *not* yet made an official decision on the DMZ. - Negotiations are ongoing, (1) within itself; (2) between & NLF mediators; and (3) between ’s political office & . I’d guess we’ll hear something in the next 48hrs or so.

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  9. : Meanwhile, the most hardline AQ jihadi factions - including Huras al-Din & Ansar al-Din - have expressed their rejection of the - DMZ agreement for . [Huras al-Din leaves a possible loophole though, calling on sharia jurists to consult on the issue]

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  10. The -backed opposition umbrella, the appears to agree in theory on the DMZ - while insisting it will not cede weaponry or territory as part of any process (which is not a rejection). A tentative yes + strong support for [as it’s sole protector].

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  11. To me, this looks like messaging more than a truly dramatic change in reality/dynamics: - S-300s already deployed in . - (& US) uses encrypted radar/GPS; less vulnerable to counter-measures - has been “jamming” for 2+ yrs. - fires most from Med.

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  12. Sep 21

    This is a good piece, but I’m not sure we can come to this definitive conclusion… at least not yet. A lot of things are being done behind the scenes to avoid a full rejection. may also have some ability to “work” the DMZ lines to make localized arrangements work.

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  13. Retweeted
    Sep 21

    : Here, says the best way to protect ’s 2 million civilians (try 3m) is for a surrender. Did he miss Jamil Hassan’s statement about 3 million Syrians wanted on terrorism (i.e. death) charges? Or the mass arrest campaigns in “reconciled” areas? Seems so…

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  14. Retweeted
    Sep 20

    Absolutely extraordinary. ’s air defense systems have no way to determine “friend” from “foe.” doesn’t export that tech. Within a complex & unpredictable environment, that raises the risk to civilian aircraft significantly.

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  15. Retweeted
    Sep 21

    Dahhan wrote here about the 'advantages' of systematically starving opposition held areas in Syria.

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  16. Retweeted
    Sep 21
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  17. Retweeted
    Sep 20

    Interesting statement by fighter, framing Ahrar al-Sham as a hostile force: - "Unfortunately, their main concern is to destroy the groups that support jihad, like Jabhat al-Nusra. They meet the regime and Jabhat al-Nusra with the same hostility.”

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  18. Retweeted
    Sep 21

    My goodness: here's a prime example of policy advocacy on based either on ignorance, or [hopefully not] malign intent. This is *riddled* with inaccuracy & misinformation. says the West should force an opposition surrender in :

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  19. Sep 21

    . interviews x2 fighters in - & "Abu Yusuf" - both of whom say they've no option but to stay & fight to the death. [Behind scenes, lots of stories about the issue not being quite as black/white for many Western fighters there].

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  20. Sep 21

    It’s just shocking that nobody wants to step up & deal with this issue. We’ll all regret it eventually. - ’s says it cannot hold 500 foreign fighters & 500 family members forever. Some have already been released/exchanged.

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