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  1. Pinned Tweet
    Aug 3

    NEW: “The Urgency of : The Impending Regime Offensive & the Delicate Balancing Act in ’s Northwest” My latest, in-depth look at , for :

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  2. is indeed AQ's greatest safe-haven since 9/11. I and others have written about it for yrs. But we’re not looking at the AQ of 2001 - the challenges posed in countering this threat are qualitatively different. Military means alone will only fuel AQ's survival, not defeat.

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  3. As we consider ’s next move in , take a look at my recent article with - looking in-depth at ’s self-presentation… Raw data shows propaganda material has been deeply locally-focused -- to prepare for today’s challenges:

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  4. Retweeted

    When the US & EU finally noticed the disinfo wave coming from Russia, my first advice was that they would be shocked by the scope and scale. Putin had invested billions for years.

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  5. How low can one go? Seriously… In fear of a chemical attack, people in have taken desperately to making homemade gas masks using plastic bags & cups (right). While sat comfortably in the U.S., one “journalist” has chosen to ridicule them (left). Sickening.

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  6. Retweeted

    Special Representative for Engagement, Ambassador James Jeffrey, delivers a statement at the Security Council meeting.

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  7. Retweeted
    18 hours ago

    Downing of Russian plane highlights Syrian regime's incompetence & dangerous new realities; DMZ deal could prevent feared humanitarian disaster in Idlib, but big obstacles ahead responds to latest news out of Syria

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  8. Given those realities mentioned in , the proposed “demilitarized zone” *does* indeed look to be [best case] a permanent ceasefire and [worst case] a further step towards opposition & jihadi surrender and/or defeat. Extremely hard to see this working cleanly, if at all.

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  9. From a strictly military/insurgent perspective, a buffer zone brings critical weaknesses too: - Deployability of is almost totally negated, given distance of 'no-mans land’ to traverse - Stand-off attacks severely curtailed; even advanced 122mm Grads barely in range.

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  10. ’s main point of objection is: - Withdrawing from the buffer zone = a slippery slope, opening up the core region to a slow/methodical regime advance with de facto international backing. As has shown, points to the Agreement as a warning here.

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  11. In 24hrs, there's been a unanimously negative response from to the - “demilitarized zone” agreement for . Long-time irreconcilables *and* the “pragmatist” wing are 100% against withdrawing from any territory. That’s in public; private discussion is key.

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  12. Retweeted
    21 hours ago

    Our coverage of the latest in Idlib, with and Saleh Hawa from Kafl Nabl and Haritan, and from Washington

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  13. Retweeted
    Sep 17

    The corpses of 80 “reconciled” former rebels from were delivered to their families last week by authorities, who said they’d died in a “mine explosion” Same story used for 40 others in . This is what surrendering in looks like.

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  14. Retweeted
    Sep 17

    WOW. - In the aftermath of 's April 2017 chemical attack on , created 1,000s of automated accounts on that churned out active disinformation. - 16-20% of *all* counter-narrative tweets worldwide were directed by .

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  15. Retweeted
    Sep 16
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  16. Retweeted
    Sep 17

    Assad regime is detaining and murdering "reconciled" former rebels.

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  17. Worth also bearing in mind the complex dynamic between & : - The “glue” is the - relationship, but the IDF/IAF - RuAF dynamic is a fragile one, based on deconfliction, not friendship. This challenges both that dynamic & the - one.

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  18. Downing of ’s IL-20 in was a result of regime/SAA incompetence. - Failed to distinguish friend/foe - SAA SAMs took so long to activate, (1) jets were already gone & (2) ’s IL-20 had arrived Humiliating for ; hence climbdown.

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  19. Overnight, we got yet another example of how - in this case, it’s MoD & state media - spout disinformation & conspiracy to distract from the truth. No, did not down a RuAF plane. No, did not fire missiles at . For context:

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  20. Sep 17

    Tonight’s developments vis-a-vis & Russia are a pretty big deal. It would seem may have acted without giving prior warning = big challenge to their prior arrangement. Or, did know, but got attacked by their errant ally in = humiliating.

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  21. Sep 17

    Mabrouk - your invincible air defenses shot down an aircraft! ... a IL-20 reconnaissance plane was shot down over tonight - amid airstrikes in .

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