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hxhassan's profile
Hassan Hassan
Hassan Hassan
Hassan Hassan
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@hxhassan

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Hassan HassanVerified account

@hxhassan

Senior Fellow @TimepDC, Columnist & NYT Bestselling Author http://goo.gl/gkRJ0u . "a highly-talented color-changing lizard" (ISIS Telegram). hhassan@timep.org

District of Columbia, USA
timep.org/people/timep-s…
Joined March 2009

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    1. Hassan Hassan‏Verified account @hxhassan Sep 17

      Where is the Syrian conflict heading next? For months & months I’ve thought long & hard about this question. Will Assad be more successful than widely thought in securing the country? Are we really approaching the end game? What to make of what happened over the past year? 1/3

      6 replies 35 retweets 60 likes
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    2. Hassan Hassan‏Verified account @hxhassan Sep 17

      Went through relevant literature: insurgencies tend to fail, but 40-55% of resolved conflicts return to violence. More important, how have the regime & allies "won" the war so far? What does this way of winning say about the fragility/durability of these victories? 2/3

      2 replies 16 retweets 29 likes
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    3. Hassan Hassan‏Verified account @hxhassan Sep 17

      I settled on one thesis I'm super confident will apply to Syria & play out in the future. Based on 2 recent historical precedents close to home that offer eerie similarities to *how* Russia won the war for Assad & what the future scenario is. Stay tuned for an article to explain

      7 replies 13 retweets 65 likes
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      Hassan Hassan‏Verified account @hxhassan 18h18 hours ago

      New in @TheAtlantic on *how* jihadis will inherit Syria rebellion. Pls read in full, but basically: • Syria ‘18 is #Iraq ‘08 • #Syria’s supposedly crushed 1970s-1980s uprising reincarnated after 2011 (ex-rebels returned to form/inform new militancy) https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/09/isis-is-poised-to-make-a-comeback-in-syria/569986/ …pic.twitter.com/uNMew2rGOP

      5:06 AM - 18 Sep 2018
      • 57 Retweets
      • 89 Likes
      • Nick Shredder Jennifer Cafarella Sascha Ruppert Lori Rose Abdullah Ruslan Trad Ola Salem Syrian Freedom Révolution Française
      11 replies 57 retweets 89 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Hassan Hassan‏Verified account @hxhassan 14h14 hours ago

          It’s less of an Iraq-Syria comparison, more on the *process* of how the US won the war then & how Russia has won the war now, and what that has left behind. Then how jihadis pick up the pieces of a supposedly dead insurgency, benefiting from the demise of like-minded competitors.

          2 replies 1 retweet 8 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Hassan Hassan‏Verified account @hxhassan 14h14 hours ago

          Also, this is not another “Isis will be back” piece. In fact, maybe to the contrary. Nusra might be ISI in this case, that’ll exploit this better, but: The potential for ISIS lies not in areas it previously held but where it’d long been locked out of (west Syria). As explained.

          1 reply 4 retweets 13 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Hassan Hassan‏Verified account @hxhassan 14h14 hours ago

          Hassan Hassan Retweeted Craig Whiteside

          Read this classic by @CraigAWhiteside for a deep-dive on this critical era in Iraq (and ponder how it might play out in Syria). Advance warning, folks:https://twitter.com/craigawhiteside/status/1038033834737127425?s=21 …

          Hassan Hassan added,

          Craig Whiteside @CraigAWhiteside
          You've read about the Awakening (Sahwa) from the American perspective, and maybe slightly from the tribal perspective. Read about it from the Islamic State of Iraq/ISIS/IS perspective for the first time. I'll bet it changes your mind about a few things. …
          0 replies 2 retweets 9 likes
          Show this thread
        5. End of conversation
        1. Ace‏ @shakumaku79 11h11 hours ago
          Replying to @hxhassan @TheAtlantic

          Hassan...great article and insights. The only permanent solution in my opinion is the complete elimination of Assadism and Islamism. Those two forces need to be eradicated militarily and replaced by a political body that is reflective of Syrian society ..with legit oversight.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. Les Evenchick‏ @evenchick 16h16 hours ago
          Replying to @hxhassan @TheAtlantic

          2. It is a serious error to associate ISIS with Al Queda. Al Q. disowned ISIS soon after its creation in Syria for its brutality to locals.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. Les Evenchick‏ @evenchick 15h15 hours ago
          Replying to @hxhassan @TheAtlantic

          3. Al Queda has only a tiny group supporting it in Syria. HTS, which includes former adherents to Al Nusra is completely independent from Al Queda. You do not mention HTS but it is the dominant opposition force in Idlib.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Daniel Neep‏ @neepd 5h5 hours ago
          Replying to @hxhassan @TheAtlantic

          I’m don’t understand the reasoning behind the suggestion that Syria 2011-now is somehow the child of the 1979-82 uprising - which was largely a guerrilla campaign until Hama, not a popular uprising. How is today a re-emergence of 82, rather a new movement??pic.twitter.com/CNYPPaSFJM

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        1. The Wider View‏ @The_WIDER_View 12h12 hours ago
          Replying to @hxhassan @TheAtlantic

          This became reality years ago.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Les Evenchick‏ @evenchick 15h15 hours ago
          Replying to @hxhassan @TheAtlantic

          5. If Idlib is taken over by Assad, opposition will shift to guerilla war.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Les Evenchick‏ @evenchick 15h15 hours ago
          Replying to @hxhassan @TheAtlantic

          4. The dedignation of HTS as terrorist by the US, Russia, Assad, and Turkey is a big lie. It is nationalist and islamist but not terrorist.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Les Evenchick‏ @evenchick 16h16 hours ago
          Replying to @hxhassan @TheAtlantic

          1. Read your article and I cant decide if you are poorly informed or just an opportunist adapting to US foreign policy interests.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Alisdair HamiltonW‏ @AHWilkes 18h18 hours ago
          Replying to @hxhassan @TheAtlantic

          That peace talks have somewhere to go right now is wishful thinking from people that hesitated to act when it was a realistic option and now feel guilty about it. Hate Trump as I do, the outcome in Syria was locked-in before he ascended the Presidency.

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