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I settled on one thesis I'm super confident will apply to Syria & play out in the future. Based on 2 recent historical precedents close to home that offer eerie similarities to *how* Russia won the war for Assad & what the future scenario is. Stay tuned for an article to explain
New in @TheAtlantic on *how* jihadis will inherit Syria rebellion. Pls read in full, but basically:
• Syria ‘18 is #Iraq ‘08
• #Syria’s supposedly crushed 1970s-1980s uprising reincarnated after 2011 (ex-rebels returned to form/inform new militancy)
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/09/isis-is-poised-to-make-a-comeback-in-syria/569986/ …pic.twitter.com/uNMew2rGOP
It’s less of an Iraq-Syria comparison, more on the *process* of how the US won the war then & how Russia has won the war now, and what that has left behind. Then how jihadis pick up the pieces of a supposedly dead insurgency, benefiting from the demise of like-minded competitors.
Also, this is not another “Isis will be back” piece. In fact, maybe to the contrary. Nusra might be ISI in this case, that’ll exploit this better, but: The potential for ISIS lies not in areas it previously held but where it’d long been locked out of (west Syria). As explained.
Read this classic by @CraigAWhiteside for a deep-dive on this critical era in Iraq (and ponder how it might play out in Syria). Advance warning, folks:https://twitter.com/craigawhiteside/status/1038033834737127425?s=21 …
Hassan...great article and insights. The only permanent solution in my opinion is the complete elimination of Assadism and Islamism. Those two forces need to be eradicated militarily and replaced by a political body that is reflective of Syrian society ..with legit oversight.
2. It is a serious error to associate ISIS with Al Queda. Al Q. disowned ISIS soon after its creation in Syria for its brutality to locals.
3. Al Queda has only a tiny group supporting it in Syria. HTS, which includes former adherents to Al Nusra is completely independent from Al Queda. You do not mention HTS but it is the dominant opposition force in Idlib.
I’m don’t understand the reasoning behind the suggestion that Syria 2011-now is somehow the child of the 1979-82 uprising - which was largely a guerrilla campaign until Hama, not a popular uprising. How is today a re-emergence of 82, rather a new movement??pic.twitter.com/CNYPPaSFJM
This became reality years ago.
5. If Idlib is taken over by Assad, opposition will shift to guerilla war.
4. The dedignation of HTS as terrorist by the US, Russia, Assad, and Turkey is a big lie. It is nationalist and islamist but not terrorist.
1. Read your article and I cant decide if you are poorly informed or just an opportunist adapting to US foreign policy interests.
That peace talks have somewhere to go right now is wishful thinking from people that hesitated to act when it was a realistic option and now feel guilty about it. Hate Trump as I do, the outcome in Syria was locked-in before he ascended the Presidency.
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