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  1. Pinned Tweet
    Aug 3

    NEW: “The Urgency of : The Impending Regime Offensive & the Delicate Balancing Act in ’s Northwest” My latest, in-depth look at , for :

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  2. So in short: When you hear & other officials express a determination to fight terrorists in , this -- ’s severe internal differences -- is the dynamic they’re seeking to exploit. Watch this closely in the coming week or so - something’s got to give.

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  3. : Until now, that stretched agenda has protected from possible internal & external threats, but the more heightened the threat, the less sustainable this “pragmatism” becomes. The implication? Something’s got to give - ’s internal durability faces a serious threat.

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  4. For the past 12 months, leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani has sought to tie together an increasingly untenable religio-political agenda: - Remaining dedicated to Salafi-Jihadism, but strictly within a national context & while engaged in talking to foreign nation-state govts.

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  5. Despite some *localized* calls by commanders to leave protests alone across on Friday, lead figures in ’s Shura Council were infuriated when those same protests featured flags. Abu al-Fateh al-Farghaly even issued a fatwa banning them, as “secular":

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  6. Within itself, sustaining ties with is becoming an increasingly untenable position to take/defend - trust in is dissolving fast. Beyond , Al-Qaeda loyalist circles are piling on the pressure, accusing & of working with apostates (Turks).

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  7. The recent stop/start threat of imminent escalation in , paired with ’s active diplomacy w. , the U.S & non-HTS armed groups have compounded pressure within hugely. Big questions being asked these days & major internal divisions over its existing stance.

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  8. : knows it can’t risk fighting as a whole, given the resulting chaos that'd ensue. It also knows all of is unlikely to agree to a dissolution or subjugation under the . What seeks is a break-up of - something becoming more likely over time.

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  9. Big day in determining the fate of , as & meet today in , . In all likelihood, will reiterate ’s determination to counter terrorists in ’s northwest, thereby buying more time & upping the ante on internally.

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  10. Sep 15

    This MP's racism knows no lengths. The man he refers to is , a fellow Syrian. He was not at an Al-Qaeda demonstration, but at the one in Marat al-Numan, which attracted 10,000s of flag wielding protesters. The town has long been vehemently anti-extremist.

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  11. Sep 14

    Amid controversy in the Netherlands’ over the nature of umbrella group al-Jabhat al-Shamiya, its former Special Envoy, insists on the record he never met with the group. I know for a fact that’s not true - I was in the same room, on multiple occasions.

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  12. Retweeted
    Sep 14

    On Petrov's passport file, there two extremely peculiar details. One is a stamp that says "Do not provide information." The other one, in lieu of actual information for his passport file, is "There's a letter. S.S." (short for top secret, in Russian).

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  13. Retweeted
    Sep 14

    Keen-eyed journalists at noticed something we didn't in our Skripal report: the number indicated on Petrov's passport file next to "Don't release information" is the Russian Ministry of Defense. Specifically, where the GRU is headquartered.

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  14. Retweeted
    Sep 14

    100% correct. Syria is nothing like Libya. Syria's war has killed 100 times as many as Libya's, and driven away maybe 500x more refugees.

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  15. Sep 14

    Syrian-American activist Rania Kisar, speaking (in English) direct from Maraat al-Numan in - at the heart of protests today: - “We will not negotiate, we will not forgive, and we will not reconcile with the criminal, Bashar al-."

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  16. Sep 14

    Niet Buitenlandse Zaken maar het OM blunderde inzake al-Jabha al-Shaamiya - - "Te suggereren dat al-Jabha al-Shaamiya hetzelfde is als AQ of IS is volslagen belachelijk. Wie tot die conclusie kwam, lijkt helaas niets te weten over de groep”

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  17. Retweeted
    Sep 12

    57% of propaganda produced between June 18 & August 31 focuses on local governance & grievances. At this critical juncture of 's trajectory, it is vehemently trying to regain local support. Read this piece by & I for :

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  18. Sep 14

    Very good report by UK’s : - The price of inaction (or “non-intervention) in has been “unacceptably high” = “Opportunities for the regime & other actors… to commit atrocity crimes, including the continued use of chemical weapons"

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  19. Sep 14

    Bear in mind UN-linked estimates have suggested 700,000-800,000 would be displaced. 's estimate is 1,000,000. fieldwork *on the ground* suggests at least double that. A truly catastrophic scenario.

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  20. Sep 14

    Jesus. **1.98-2.3 million** people could be displaced if conflict escalates in - as per new fieldwork. - 674,670-767,970 IDPs doubly displaced - 1,311,700-1,530,090 residents displaced

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  21. Retweeted
    Sep 13

    JUNE 1, 2018. "US Officials Just Mislabeled a Syrian Terror Group as al Qaeda. Worse, They’re Missing a Far Bigger Threat" via

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