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  1. Pinned Tweet
    Aug 3

    NEW: “The Urgency of : The Impending Regime Offensive & the Delicate Balancing Act in ’s Northwest” My latest, in-depth look at , for :

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  2. "There are so many British fighters in that snacks from the — including Jaffa Cakes, Maltesers, Smarties & Rolos at four for £1 — are sold in at least 3 shops.” Read: - "British jihadists must flee or fight as Idlib offensive looms”

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  3. Retweeted

    What implications will the strikes on have for and relations? Register now for our event on Thursday, featuring , , , , and .

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  4. Retweeted
    Sep 7

    Thrilled to publish the 10th in the 's CT paper series - a superb analysis by : - "Out of the Desert: 's Strategy for a Long War" An absolute must read - check it out!

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  5. A more cohesive NSC & a re-energized/empowered State Dept, plus a DOD & IC determined to sustain the C- mission, make for a more holistic internal policy debate. The challenge is designing a package of leverage areas to make U.S a credible player. The black swan is .

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  6. Another angle here is the U.S., which has ramped up its rhetoric over the prospect of escalation in . I get the sense that this isn’t to protect per se, as much as it is to pull away from & , killing prospects for a -designed “settlement"

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  7. The -backed “ National Army” based in northern has reportedly made plans to intervene in . “We’ll not stand on as onlookers… We have plans to turn the tables… We have great coordination with the [in ]”

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  8. There’s been some interesting media work on the lately, but in ’s context, labeling them a Uighur group is missing a beat. Over the past 2yrs, they’ve internationalized significantly; one reason for ’s heightening concerns, as the group takes on a broader brand.

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  9. : Jaish al-Izzeh has remained a determinedly independent movement, focused geographically along N. /S. front, controlling key portion of M5 highway. That places them in control of valuable trade routes & makes them a key vulnerability for weakening southern lines.

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  10. : intelligence has fostered close relations with the - using them as a key node of control vis-a-vis on one side, and AQ loyalists on the other. By singling out , / hope to suck & back into AQ fold - completing the “demarbling."

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  11. When assessing & ’s ongoing air & artillery campaign, note the most heavily bombed areas are controlled by (1) Jaish al-Izzeh & (2) the TIP. Both zones are being attacked for differing complex reasons, to do with each group’s unique internal & external dynamics.

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  12. : Lots of media coverage on NW repeats the “HTS-dominated ” line. The reality is a little more complex than that - see this new map by has also never been less popular, so undercurrents vulnerable to external exploitation are very real.

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  13. Amid escalating air campaign, continues to deploy additional forces & equipment into , and along the border with . Main battle tanks, APCs, heavy artillery & MRLs newly arrived into the theater. 500+ special commandos positioned across the border.

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  14. & ’s "counter-terrorism” air campaign in is starting to escalate. Yesterday, one strike killed a particularly potent threat to regional & international security - a young baby girl, called Umaya.

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  15. Sep 9

    has turned into a microcosm… where all the forces that gave rise to & were birthed by ’s traumatic uprising are struggling in a catastrophic battle whose price, as usual, will be paid for by innocent civilians.” Powerful, by :

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  16. Sep 8

    Heartwarming story of refugees warmly welcomed & living happily in rural England - specifically in the village of Hampton Bishop, Herefordshire - just minutes away from where I grew up. By :

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  17. Sep 8

    has been monitored using land routes from to transfer strategic weapons systems to , some of which have been targeted in low profile airstrikes, minimally (if at all) covered by media. now experimenting w. new air routes, post-Iran Air sanctions.

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  18. Sep 8

    has invested significantly in the - border area between al-Qaim & al-Bukamal; militarily & religio-culturally. While air routes are certainly of more value, they’re more constrained now due to sanctions & *has* been using the land border for weapons & men.

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  19. Sep 8

    Somewhat disconnected logic being put out by skeptics, who insist that (1) ’s “land bridge” is a complete myth, but that (2) US troops in al-Tanf risk substantial costs when [the ] will eventually take the fight to us. Statements largely mutually contradictory.

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  20. Sep 8

    BREAKING - regime sources say the northwestern offensive has begun. Very heavy air & artillery strikes hit northern & southern this morning - at least 50 strikes reported, including barrel bombs. No ground movement yet.

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  21. Sep 8

    After the U.S clarified that it’s staying in NE , the // began to distance itself from local deals with . Now, fighting has broken out in their shared city of - 13 regime soldiers killed; more wounded. ’s crisis shifting, again.

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