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  1. Pinned Tweet
    Aug 3

    NEW: “The Urgency of : The Impending Regime Offensive & the Delicate Balancing Act in ’s Northwest” My latest, in-depth look at , for :

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  2. After the U.S clarified that it’s staying in NE , the // began to distance itself from local deals with . Now, fighting has broken out in their shared city of - 13 regime soldiers killed; more wounded. ’s crisis shifting, again.

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  3. Retweeted
    Sep 7

    Over a month ago, I wrote a wide-ranging guide to the situation in & the likely consequences of a major escalation in hostilities there. The fate of northwest is complex & multi-layered, but *hugely* consequential. Please read:

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  4. Beginning in '13, provided military support to 12 groups in SW - assault rifles, machine guns, mortar systems, vehicles & $75/month salaries. That stopped following an agreement to allow - to retake the area - :

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  5. ’s MoD appears to have forgotten to mention all the hospitals, schools, aid convoys & rescue workers it successfully destroyed during its operations in . Not to mention all the civilians... sorry, “terrorists”, it successfully killed.

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  6. Big airstrikes in southern & northern today, in a markedly aggressive statement amid talks in to negotiate the fate of northwestern . Seems // have already made up their minds: an offensive of some level will definitely happen

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  7. Sep 7

    Thrilled to publish the 10th in the 's CT paper series - a superb analysis by : - "Out of the Desert: 's Strategy for a Long War" An absolute must read - check it out!

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  8. Sep 7

    You'll be greatly missed Niklas - it was a pleasure working with you over the years, in , and beyond. Best of luck in your new post!

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  9. Sep 7

    Crucial day today, as , & are set to meet in to discuss the fate of [among other things]. I’m told is to pitch a mass opposition demobilization; a devolution of governance to civilian authorities; and a CT campaign against spoilers.

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  10. Sep 6

    Amid heightening U.S. rhetoric around , , , etc., ’s military has threatened to attack al-Tanf (home to U.S. & UK forces) twice in the past week. Meanwhile, some say we should work with -- fools.

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  11. Sep 6

    "I am very sure that we have very, very good grounds to be making these warnings… There's lots of evidence that chemical weapons are being prepared” by around . - U.S Envoy Jim Jeffrey, after returning from , &

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  12. Sep 6

    Mohammed al-Katerji sanctioned, along with Fadi Nasr, Yasir Abbas & x6 other entities, for involvement in facilitating "transactions with the murderous regime & support to .” Good. About time.

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  13. Sep 6

    Encouraging to see the recently re-developed/enhanced U.S policy on being revealed by Amb. Jim Jeffrey - a interdependent package, including: - Indefinite military presence - Diplomatic surge - Pressure on - Test - Targeted sanctions

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  14. Sep 6

    Wow. ’s claim of UK evidence being "off the charts” in "inconsistencies” appears to be based on theories espoused by conspiracist Twitter accounts… … who failed to realize that Airport has more than 1 non-return gate (duh!).

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  15. Sep 6

    has offered only denials… a familiar script, from , to , to the Donbass & the killing of … the list goes on and on. And the song is always the same: Russia is somehow never behind these incidents, but no one’s buying it.”

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  16. Sep 6
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  17. Sep 6

    At , says 2,600-3,500 foreign fighters have travelled to fight in from 41 countries since 2011. Though smaller in scale to , that’s the 4th largest jihadi flow in modern history.

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  18. Sep 6

    Heavy -n airstrikes reported over the past hour targeting opposition areas around Kafr Zita in northern & al-Tamana’a in southern .

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  19. Sep 6

    Here’s ’s “land bridge” in action. -backed Shia militias entering al-Bukamal in eastern , after crossing over from Al-Qaim in western .

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  20. Sep 6

    Sources: has ‘cleared' the National Liberation Front () in & SE to begin using stocks of 122mm Grad rockets & MRL launchers, which were provided several months ago & have been stored/held for use. Setting the ground for tomorrow’s summit in .

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