Let's just hope you aren't talking about the stock price...
I don't have a prediction. I was making a joke, ala $180 stock price. No one knows where the stock will be Monday, Tuesday, or two years from now.
It is going to be 320 according to someone familiar with the matter.
Nothing like a late Friday announcement on this. At least he got the timing right this time.
Statement from the board: http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/statement-independent-members-teslas-board-directors-brad-buss
Looks like old Elon laid off the social media so hard he waited until the dead of night on a Friday to make a company altering announcement.
I'm sure the investors who bought in at "funding secured" won't be [angry at all.] (https://www.hbsslaw.com/cases/tsla/pressrelease/tesla-inc-nasdaq-tsla-tsla-investor-alert-hagens-berman-sobol-shapiro-llp-files-tesla-securities-tweet-class-action-notifies-investors-of-october-9th-lead-plaintiff-deadline)
And surely that lawsuit won't be headed up by Hagens Berman Sobol Shapiro LLP.
The same HBSS that [successfully sued] (https://www.hbsslaw.com/success-record/landmark-cases):
Bernie Madoff
Enron
Big Tobacco for the cancer coverup
Big Pharma for price fixing
Exxon for the oil spill
Volkswagen for emissions tampering
And so on
But hey, funding secured amirightguys. 😎
I'm sure the investors who bought in at "funding secured" won't be [angry at all.]
Eh, I'm not. I forgot to close my buy order and bought at 365. I had to liquidate a lot to dilute the shit out of it at 300, and my stop loss triggered it at break even'ish at 318.
Anybody mad put too much in at once.
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and off of Ambien. and off of LSD. and off of marijuana....
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At least he got the timing right this time.
You mean burying the announcement late on Friday night when the decision was made on Thursday?
Yes, because if he had announced this on Thursday night the stock would have dropped Friday and then they would have had to wait until Monday to post information about the Semi/roadster V2/Model Y to make the stock go back up.
By delaying it until Friday night, the stock won’t fluctuate and everyone will forget by Monday morning. This was a well thought out move.
Everyone gets the reasoning why it was released Friday night. That's not the gripe
You’d better hope
Nah, I have no skin in this game. I’m here for the drama because it makes me feel better about my boring life. I’ve just been watching this telenovela since the early 2010s and I know how the stock works now.
I drank a couple shots, spun in circles, and landed on the beanbag chair. That means it’s going to soar come Monday morning.
It’s as accurate as any other analyst prediction.
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I’m incredibly excited to continue leading Tesla as a public company.
But the rest of the note was so genuine. 😅
But really, I’m glad that Elon seems to be listening to those surrounding him, as opposed to insisting on his own way.
Now he just needs to work on tweeting after listening.
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It's not listening if you're just being told "there's no fucking way". It's crashing back to reality.
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This was a more measured, thought out decision than the infamous tweet. I hope Tesla can put this whole ordeal behind them now and focus on closing out Q3 successfully.
Like it or not, this is a massive and unnecessary failure and a horrible look for Elon and Tesla. It was the last thing the company needed.
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But...but all the people who said Tesla wouldn't end up going private were just shorts spreading FUD and trying to save their asses! /s
As a Long TSLA holder I'm incredibly frustrated by this whole saga. After a great quarter the stock recovered nicely to mid-300s from high 200s, then this tweet came out and introduced nothing but uncertainty and doubt to an already volatile stock. Ironically Elon himself was the cause of the biggest FUD in recent TSLA history.
Stock prices or even legal liability aside, this damages Elon's credibility to a degree that every forward statements he put out will be met with the "something something secured" meme from this point on, as if the "3 months maybe 6 months definitely" meme wasn't enough already.
So the actual FUD spreading shorts were vindicated, and Elon and others's credibility to combat FUD in the future just got irreparably damaged.
Now Elon has no choice other than make TSLA's fundamentals prove itself, because people can only choke on so much Koolaid before turning sour on him.
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This entire thing was dumb. Stock price would be higher now if he never said anything at all
Maybe. Maybe not. It’s a very volatile stock even during a boring week.
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Long term, this should have no impact on stock price.
Ha! But seriously while I know $TSLA is excessively drive by hype and shorts over a long enough term the actual underlying success of the business should drown out these, what 60$ fluctuations about going private or not.
So assuming the massive class action lawsuits go nowhere and the SEC takes no action?
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yes. don't believe the anti-FUD on here. Elon blatently lied, it moved the stock.
whether or not the SEC / BOD takes action on that bullshit remains to be seen.
The real answer is none of us know and if you think you do, you are just lying to prove a point
"The real answer is none of us know for sure that Mr. Jenkin's wasn't just borrowing that car without permission, and was totally going to return it full of money. We can't know for sure, therefore it's not a crime."
Totally, that makes sense.
Lol the real answer just got fucking proven.
They literally had no damn funding secured.
That's the definition of a bullshit statement.
Last I checked, most CEOs twitting bullshit, stock moving statements get in serious trouble for being so blantantly full of shit.
There's no positive spin. Not even a neutral spin. There's only one answer.
we all know elon lied now.
we all don't know what the repercussions will be.
As strange as it sounds I actually am starting to believe Azelia Bank's assertion that he did it while high on something and making a stupid joke about weed for the 420. But obviously admitting that would be even more of a shitshow than this has already been, so it seems like he ended up just dumping Grimes for having told Banks about that.
At this point it's really just about how much the SEC is going to end up actually punishing him and how the short seller lawsuits work out. I actually doubt the SEC is going to end up doing anything too severe so he'll probably be fine from that standpoint but the lawsuits will probably end up being a gigantic waste of time.
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No. He said he was thinking about it. Just because he had the funding secured, that doesn’t require him to follow through.
What about the line saying the only thing it was contingent on was a shareholder vote?
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If he talks to the institutional investors, who hold the majority of the shares, and determine that they don't support this then there's no point in holding a vote.
It would actually be terrible for him as chairman of the board to proceed if he expected it to fail and it was his wish.
But he didn't have the funding secured. That's kind of important to be clear about when you are the CEO of a multi billion dollar public company.
Look, Musk flies fast and loose. Fine. But he flew too close to the sun this time.
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Either way, the SEC is still (rightfully) pursuing him for this.
They’d have to prove his intent was to manipulate the stock. That’s a very high bar.
Elon’s going to tell the SEC he had a meeting with the Saudi fund manager, the fund manager told him the money is ready to go, and Elon posted because he had a good faith belief that he had secured the needed funding. They don’t have any case on him here.
Part of me thinks that a two sentence summary from a Redditor who likely doesn't have the full story isn't going to be a reliable source for determining the outcome of this case. It's likely not anywhere near as clear cut as you're making it out to be. You don't know what you don't know.
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If anyone disagrees with me, I’d like to know why you think I’m wrong. I could be.
I don't think you get to rule yourself correct. I don't think you're wrong. What I do think is that you don't have the necessary insider info from either Elon's side or the SEC's side to declare the case so clearly cut, or the financial credentials to reinforce your viewpoint. Again, the unknown unknowns bite people on this subreddit all the time. Everything is simple unless you have the big picture.
This is fair. I’m definitely biased (that’s why I’m in this sub) and definitely not a securities attorney. We’ll see what happens.
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Because then any CEO could have a meeting with a fund manager and say they have funding secured for a buyout out any price without even ensuring the buyer has enough money for the purchase. Opens up a world of possibilities for fraud.
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Because the SEC can ask for evidence of this, they won't just take his word for it: "Elon’s going to tell the SEC he had a meeting with the Saudi fund manager, the fund manager told him the money is ready to go"
They'll talk to the Saudi fund managers, they'll subpoena internal memos, Elon's emails and other communications with the Saudi fund manager, travel logs, mobile phone metadata, etc etc. If the story doesn't match up then Elon is in trouble.
They’d have to prove his intent was to manipulate the stock.
Would they? Or would they just need to show that he exhibited a reckless disregard for the truth?
It’s the SEC - historically they’ve done poorly against cases that aren’t rock solid.
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You don’t have to prove intent to manipulate the price. All you need is intent to mislead or make a false statement, and a price movement as a result of that. If he didn’t have funding secured, it’s not a hard case to prove.
Google 10b-5 securities fraud for a bunch of explanations on what constitutes a violation.
Except that Saudi, contrary to what most believe here, never had the capital to buy them out.
The Saudi fund has more than enough cash to do the job. The question is how "secure" the promise they made to Elon was.
Between Elon’s tweet and today, Saudis cancelled the Aramco IPO. That took $2T out of the Saudi game.
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You are absolutely correct. The SEC must prove intent to manipulate. In a normal case this would be hard. However, due to the large publicity that this case brings, I bet there will be numerous prosecutors who would love to make a name for themselves. Either way, the SEC likely won't be a large issue.
The larger issue is the private lawsuits from the ambulance chasing firms. They specialise in just these sort of lawsuits with decades of experience and they do not require the same burden of proof to make a civil case. The main firm claims to have about a 50% success rate, although I'd imagine many of those are settlements and not wins in court. No company wants to be distracted by a long running lawsuit.
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"That said, my belief that there is more than enough funding to take Tesla private was reinforced during this process."
Right. His belief. He's not saying that it exists, he's saying that he believes it exists. These are legally two different things.
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Exactly right. The statement confirms he had more than enough funding in place
It does not. It says he THINKS there is enough funding. Of course there's enough funding if every rich person in the world gives all their money to Elon.
But it's not "secured" until they actually promise to give him the money and sign a legally binding contract. And they have not. Musk said so himself.
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It'll be interesting to see how this impacts the stock price in the next couple days. Not that most people care about that but i think it's really fascinating.
I feel like it already rectified and stabilized at around 320 under the assumption private wasn't happening.
Was the jump to ~380 because the announced they wanted to go private? I didn't realize most people knew it wasn't going to happen. This news is the first I'm hearing that they had intentions other then going private. I think you're right though. Maybe we'll see it go up a bit now that the future is more certain.
Musk said that it was basically a done deal, save for shareholder vote, so it shot up under the expectation that $420 was likely happening. Once that started to fall apart, it dropped back.
The tweet about going private pushed the stock from about $360 to about $380 before it started falling.
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No buy out will mean no quick jump to 420. This will effect the short term out 400 plus options the most. All the go private speculators will bail out Monday.
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There is also no proven path for most retail investors to own shares if we were private
as myself and many others said repeatedly on this subreddit to the garbage spewed by tesla and many others.
now that musk himself is also saying it are you guys finally willing to admit you were wrong on this point
Yes, a lot of folks here shouted down their better angels saying it was possible because of SpaceX and Fidelity despite SEC laws saying it 100% was not possible.
Saw way too many comments about this despite no evidence it was possible.
There are no "SEC laws saying it 100% was not possible." My Fidelity mutual funds that anyone can buy own dozens of private companies ($100 million+ each investment) in companies like uber, airbnb, juul, spacex, etc. What Elon is likely referring to is more likely the SIZE of the investment. If Fidelity Contrafund, for example, has ~2% invested in public Tesla, they may have a limit on their private investments size.
The truth/rules are not as clear cut as you indicate.
Uh no.
It has nothing to do with private companies and everything to do with the 2,000 shareholder rule.
Your original comment and mine were both related to institutional ownership (and possibly employee share ownership since you referred to the spacex agreement which is 100% for employees and former employees.)
I do not disagree that allowing all current public stock owners would have been problematic - but there are/were lots of people on here claiming institutional owners would have had no ability to retain shares. That is factually incorrect in some cases (many active US mutual funds.)
There is also no proven path for most retail investors to own shares if we were private
This was the original comment that I was replying to. Obviously I'm referring to retail investor ownership.
Gotcha - was confused by your reply referring to non retail investor subjects.
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It was really weird to watch, honestly. Some people just wanted it to be possible so badly that they couldn’t see reality. The laws and regs were written to explicitly prohibit what Elon was saying he wanted to do—have a company owned by thousands of unaccredited investors without having to satisfy the requirements of a public company.
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This will only add fuel to the FUD fires and give ammo to the short sellers, the complete opposite of what he wanted to accomplish by taking it private. Glad he is at least listening to those around him now.
Cheap shares for us maybe. Right up until 3Q blows everyone's mind.
production and deliveries have slowed.
elon basically anti-confirmed q3 will be profitable in this PR.
i wouldn't hold my breath for q3 er.
Interesting third point, how he found that there was even more funding available than before...
My idea to go private was totally awesome and I could have easily gotten all the money but I decided not to because being public was even more awesome.
My idea to go private was so totally awesome that even though we weren't going to do it all the way back on Thursday, I decided not to tell anyone until 11:30 PM EST on a Friday night when I hoped no one was looking.
Because an announcement in the dead of night on a Friday is how you get the real super awesome points funding secured btw. 😎😎😎
A Tesla is autonomously driving in summon mode right now from the east coast filled with dollars, will be here in three months, maybe...
How is this so hard to believe? There's trillions of dollars out there in sovereign wealth funds and much of it comes from oil rich countries like Saudi Arabia and Norway who are looking to secure their futures in a world with low oil demand.
Totally. All those investors will now buy the stock at a massive discount Monday. Why invest at 420 when you can at 320? With all that demand Musk discovered, should be around 420 by the end of next week at the latest.
This news of the demand is likely why it was released Friday at 11pm Eastern, so investors can have happy dreams of such investment delights waiting for them.
Who knew someone so smart could be so dumb. I guess we all make mistakes.
I like how the entire company had to pretend for a few weeks that there was actually an option of going private. Or that it was even on the table. They were hiring PR firms for "going private" as late as last week and hired Goldman just this week.
Will the SEC buy it and will that save Elon?
r/teslamotors 2 weeks ago: "Going private is a good idea!"
r/teslamotors now: "Staying public is a good idea!"
I still understand why they wanted to go private, I just expected Elon to have done more homework on the idea before floating it on twitter.
“Floating it?” It would be one thing if he had only floated it. Instead he basically said that the deal was already secured and only needed a shareholder vote.
Not floating the idea on twitter, but also giving it a price tag and assuring the world that it was merely contingent on a shareholder vote.
He didn't want to go private. He was mad bro at the shorts and wanted to blow them up.
Now they get to sue his ass. He'd be personally liable too. Pretty dumb.
Certainly won't save them from shareholder lawsuits whatever they do.
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So the whole thing was just
a ruse to scare the shortssecurities fraud?
This whole thing with going private was an unnecessary distraction, when, from the looks at it, all started with a tweet.
But but now the evul shorts will destroy the company! /s. Elon made a dumb off the cuff remark without consulting anyone and created a bunch of hoopla for nothing. Back to business as usual. Now time to make the Grimes /Banks headache go away.
"New player 'SEC' has joined the game!"
Back to business yes, but there's dark clouds looming over that could easily turn into a bad thunderstorm.
Imagine investing in a company that literally declared they're going private and lies about funding being secured, followed by them reversing that decision in what appears to be potential blatant stock manipulation.
funding secured btw 😎😎😎
literally declared they're going private
Repeating that over and over isn't going to make it true.
The tweet:
"Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured."
It contains
An exact price point
A claim that Tesla has somehow locked down funding for this venture
The word "considering"
Arguing the word "considering" will keep Musk out of SEC trouble is like saying a middle-school boy plagiarizing his essay will be able to stay out of trouble by changing the word "into" to "in to."
A certain future equals a stabile stock. We are now certain of the privatization question. Stock won't do much in my opinion.
I admit it might be priced in already, but if there's one thing markets hate it's instability. This screams instability.
I think he means well but at times he's too public. Best now to stop looking at the price and wait for Q3 earnings
Oh I totally expect it to dip again, 275 something maybe? And then I think we'll end up back where we are now until Q3.
https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/23/investing/saudi-aramco-ipo-oil/index.html
Even the Saudis have cancelled their Aramco IPO. This is what happens when the Fed starts to dry up the money supply...
The Aramco IPO has been going on and off for years.
https://www.businessinsider.com/why-saudi-arabia-aramco-delayed-ipo-2017-9
Could someone sum up the whole reason why this is so embarrassing? Is it not okay to think about going private and to then change his mind?
This is so very embarrassing because Mr musk declared this a done deal, when it was clearly not. All the reasons he is listing now were available to him had he talked with a competent adviser before tweeting this out in the middle of a trading day causing massive upheaval in the stock price. To sum up, not what a CEO should do.
I'm glad they are going to stat public. I know a private company would have less noise, but I think long term, as tesla cotinues to execute, this will showcase themselves to the world.
I'm going to punt a kitten if I read one more 'secured' post.
Mods, can something please be done about this?
One guy alone has posted probably a dozen "XYZ secured" memes in this thread. It's noisy and takes away from real discussion.
It's at times like this I appreciate SpaceX's very serious approach to inane/joke comments.
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Lol. I thought Elon would drag this out for a few more weeks at least. There is no tangible benefit of taking the company private. Best to focus on other priorities.
Hooray! That mid day dip the other day triggered my stop loss, so I'm all go for a fire sale next week!
The board still has interest in the price going up .
This is good news, and I will buy the shit out of any stock dip. There is a crapload of distraction from shorts making capital cases out of mole hills and that sucks. There is a serious incentive for being evil, and no shortage of human labor for it, and that sucks. However, the public market valuation was reasonable to me. It is higher than similar companies because it does allocate value for future promise. It has been stagnant for a year because their execution was catastrophic. Turn it around like they look to be doing and the reward is coming.
I would prefer Tesla equity raise and create a larger cash cushion.
I get that you disagree with critics of Tesla and that you think that they are exaggerating bad news, but don't you think it's a bit much to call that evil?
I think that many of the bulls/Tesla supporters in this thread are too willing to downplay some of the risks that face Tesla in the next 24 months, but I would never call them evil for doing so.
it is an incentive for evil because fear and chaos are easier. The actual act of shorting is not evil, nor is describing your prediction that happens to expect failure, but these are not all of the behaviors involved. It would be easier for instance to arrange strategic battery fires and do significant harm. The opposite of that, demonstrating safety against fires, is more difficult. The purported symmetry between longs and shorts is not true.
This, exactly this. Well said, sir.
This is the best thing that came from the tweet. I actually laughed out loud when I saw that one.
I'm going to predict it closes higher on Monday. Who is with me? Bueller? Mueller?
We can all breathe a sigh of relief because going private was a mixed bag at best. All those that held TSLA stock on margin would have had to sell because I doubt any retail brokerage would have allowed investors to margin stock in a private company.
Onward to the short squeeze of the century!!!
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Upvotes for every "___ secured" comment... secured
And you made me break my streak. Thank you!
... secured.
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No, the SEC only does civil suits. But they can refer the DOJ to prosecute. Doubt they will here, but not guarantees
They should have dragged this along until they actively found a COO so they could have announced that they're staying public and Elon found a COO so he wasn't working 120 hour weeks.
I wonder how much of this, if at all, was related to Saudi Aramco postponing or cancelling their IPO.
Also not really looking forward to looking at my TSLA shares on Monday...
Nothing much likely to happen to the stock. We are now certain it will remain public so volatility should be quashed.
Hope you're right, but my guess is similar to /u/dc21111 :
No buy out will mean no quick jump to 420. This will effect the short term out 400 plus options the most. All the go private speculators will bail out Monday.
It's probably just short-term noise though, so not terribly worried.
Well, on one hand, a Private Tesla might have been nice to see. On the other hand? This will probably be better for Tesla in the short/mid terms. I’m happy that the drama will have stopped, for a while at least.
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Agree. Consensus finding worked. Now we can move on to the short squeeze of the century.
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