Election 2018

Forecasting the race for the House

Updated Aug. 23, 2018, at 3:52 PM

5 in 7

Chance Democrats win control (72.3%)

2 in 7

Chance Republicans keep control (27.7%)

AverageMedianCurrentbreakdownCurrentbreakdownMajorityMajorityBreakdownof seats byparty↑Higherprobability267 D168 R247 D188 R227 D208 R227 R208 D247 R188 D
80% chanceDemocrats gain 13to 55 seats80% chanceDemocrats gain 13to 55 seats10% chance Democratsgain fewer than 13 seats10% chance Democratsgain fewer than 13 seats10% chance Democratsgain more than 55 seats10% chance Democratsgain more than 55 seats+55+33 D seatsAvg. gain+13+33 D seats

# Our forecast for every district

The chance of each candidate winning, with all 435 House districts shown at the same size

Solid D
≥95% D
Likely D
≥75% D
Lean D
≥60% D
Toss-up
<60% both
Lean R
≥60% R
Likely R
≥75% R
Solid R
≥95% R
Party flip
>50% nonincumbent party
= one district
Dem.
Solid
Likely
Lean
Rep.
≥95%
≥75%
≥60%
Toss-up
<60%
Party flip
>50% nonincumbent party
= one district
District totals by category
190
9
15
14
18
52
137
Majority

# How the forecast has changed

We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 6

Chance of controlling the House

1 in 101 in 41 in 23 in 49 in 1072.3%72.3%27.7%27.7%NOV. 6ELECTION DAYAug. 23, 2018

Seats controlled by each party

277-158247-188EVEN247-188277-158FORECAST LAUNCH228-207228-207

Popular vote margin

Aug.Sept.Oct.Nov.R+15R+10R+50D+5D+10D+15D+15D+7.5D+7.5

KEY

AVERAGE

80% CHANCE OF FALLING IN RANGE

# How the popular vote for the House translates into seats

How various breakdowns in the national popular vote correspond to the most likely distributions of House seats by party, according to our forecast

Higher probability arrow pointing to the right
Democrats are favored to win a majority of seats if they win the popular vote by at least 5.3 points
R+10R+5EVEND+5D+10D+15D+20D+25280-155260-175240-195MAJORITY240-195260-175280-155300-135320-115Popular vote marginParty breakdownDemocrats win both thepopular vote and the HouseDemocrats win both thepopular vote and the HouseDemocrats win the popularvote, but Republicans win theHouseDemocrats win the popularvote, but Republicans win theHouseGOP wins bothGOP wins both

# How the House has swung historically

Our forecasted seat breakdown in the House for 2018 and the change in the breakdown for every House election since 1924

0100200      300 seats0100200300192619301934193819421946195019541958196219661970197419781982198619901994199820022006201020142018◄ More Democrats | More Republicans ►AverageAverage

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …

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