Can Okar

The worst thing about all this is that lots of racists are going to be performatively making terrible jerk chicken.

It is hard enough to argue that Turkey’s democracy is democratic so it’s quite the statement to claim it is “inherently” so. One wonders when everyone will finally realise that elections are only a very small part of what makes democracies democratic.https://twitter.com/sonercagaptay/status/1031194469310373890 …

Aaah so this is why Netflix has been shit for the last couple of days. Results of the test? No. Fuck no.https://twitter.com/verge/status/1030544909231640579 …

I particularly love his and the IIF’s orthodox thinking about exports. I wonder if they’ve spoken to a single exporter, many of whom are presently shitting bricks and thinking of escape routes?

This guy is a classic on-paper economist. He should visit Istanbul and test for himself whether the statistics he’s being fed have any relation to reality. This judgement isn’t just about this tweet - read his feed. It’s like a parallel universe.https://twitter.com/robinbrooksiif/status/1030826793501184000 …

If I were them, I wouldn’t even write this stuff but anyway, if I were them, I REALLY WOULD NOT ALLOW THIS TO BE TRANSLATED AND PUBLISHED FOR ALL TO SEE.

Same applies to retail holders of FX (or in Turkish govt parlance: the Ayşe teyzes). I find it morally dubious to advise citizens to move all assets to lira when you have no plan to uphold lira value. Turkish prices are heavily linked to FX so it strikes me as hazardous advice.

But on a more serious note, this performative selling of FX has almost no impact on the exchange rate but does pose a risk for both public finances and corporate balance sheets. It is good to have diversified assets so let’s not shoot ourselves in the face as well as the foot.

Am I the only one who is disappointed when I hear Turkish corporates and Ministries are converting all their dollars to lira in response to the leader’s call? They all claimed they did it at least 18 months ago last time he asked - I can almost smell the bitter hue of betrayal.

The credit ratings don’t matter as much as they used to for Turkey so no moves on S&P news. For one, Turkey is already junk-rated & slightly junkier doesn’t count for much. More importantly, investors have already placed best minds on the Turkey beat so S&P adds no new insight.

As the Turkish lira loses 8% in the blink of an eye, it's not necessarily the direction of travel but the sheer fragility of the currency that is frightening. Limited liquidity can work in both directions and is clearly only a plaster on a gaping wound.

Let’s just hope he never gets into a fight with Hungary or, God forbid, Uruguay.https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1030235363258851328 …

This reinforces a number of things that we know about Trump and Turkey: 1) Trump escalates first, asks later and has no strategy 2) Trump is a terrible diplomat 3) Christianity front and center shows this is an election issue 4) Turkey’s economic woes are separate to the spat

Thankfully, the markets have started ignoring Trump’s Turkey tweets. His first sent markets roiling, second made a dent, last tweet had next to no impact. Twitter bullying over a diplomatic spat should never have been an economic driver, particularly at such a vulnerable time.

Anyone trying to decipher Trump’s overnight ramblings about “cutting back on Turkey” might want to consider that he has a terrible and immature sense of humour. He probably thought he was making a pun on something his doctor told him to do regarding the food. I’m sadly serious.

Beşiktaş just pulled that out of the fire. Against a team I'd only ever heard of because of Championship Manager, it took Negredo to come on, get booked, score and then get sent off for celebrating... A true legend!

A final note: I have just spent some days in Turkey and you would not believe how strongly AKP loyalists and opponents alike are buying into the "economic warfare" discourse. I always knew Trump was a complete idiot but with his Turkey play he has really screwed it all up.