Election 2018

Forecasting the race for the House

Updated Aug. 18, 2018, at 9:55 AM

3 in 4

Chance Democrats win control (75.4%)

1 in 4

Chance Republicans keep control (24.6%)

AverageMedianCurrentbreakdownCurrentbreakdownBreakdownof seats byparty↑Higherprobability267 D168 R247 D188 R227 D208 R227 R208 D247 R188 D
80% chanceDemocrats gain 14to 58 seats80% chanceDemocrats gain 14to 58 seats10% chance Democratsgain fewer than 14 seats10% chance Democratsgain fewer than 14 seats10% chance Democratsgain more than 58 seats10% chance Democratsgain more than 58 seats+58+35 D seatsAvg. gain+14

# Our forecast for every district

The chance of each candidate winning, with all 435 House districts shown at the same size

Solid D
≥95% D
Likely D
≥75% D
Lean D
≥60% D
Toss-up
<60% both
Lean R
≥60% R
Likely R
≥75% R
Solid R
≥95% R
Party flip
>50% nonincumbent party
= one district
Dem.
Solid
Likely
Lean
Rep.
≥95%
≥75%
≥60%
Toss-up
<60%
Party flip
>50% nonincumbent party
= one district
District totals by category
189
12
14
14
19
52
135
Majority

# How the forecast has changed

We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 6

Chance of controlling the House

1 in 101 in 41 in 23 in 49 in 1075.4%75.4%24.6%24.6%NOV. 6ELECTION DAYAug. 18, 2018

Seats controlled by each party

277-158247-188EVEN247-188277-158FORECAST LAUNCH230-205230-205

Popular vote margin

Aug.Sept.Oct.Nov.R+15R+10R+50D+5D+10D+15D+15D+7.6D+7.6

KEY

AVERAGE

80% CHANCE OF FALLING IN RANGE

# How the House has swung historically

Our forecasted seat breakdown in the House for 2018 and the change in the breakdown for every House election since 1924

0100200      300 seats0100200300192619301934193819421946195019541958196219661970197419781982198619901994199820022006201020142018◄ More Democrats | More Republicans ►AverageAverage

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …

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