Ed Conway

@EdConwaySky

Economics Editor of , columnist at . I like writing books and listening to obscure dance music

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Joined July 2007
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  1. 7 minutes ago

    The most ironic thing abt Turkey's current crisis is that so many of the root causes (not all but many) can be traced back to aftermath of the 2016 coup. Pres Erdogan may have survived that coup but it's by no means guaranteed that he will survive all the aftershocks...

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  2. 10 minutes ago

    More broadly, we're probably likely to see more of these crisis in emerging economies as the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates, making life for all dollar-exposed economies much more difficult. That was at least part of Turkey's problem... 11/

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  3. 12 minutes ago

    What abt knock-on consequences? Some EU banks exposed. Esp BBVA & Unicredit. Couple of useful tables on this attached. BUT NB much of their lending is in lira so contagion risk not quite as bad as in Greek crisis 10/ Yes I know I said it was a "short thread". I was wrong. Sorry

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  4. 17 minutes ago

    How does this end? Prob Erdogan will have to endorse higher int rates & lower govt spending or there's a good chance the crisis intensifies, which may mean an IMF bailout. There's talk of capital controls but they're rarely more than a sticking plaster solution in these crises 9/

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  5. 32 minutes ago

    Then the final straw last wk: Donald Trump intervening with sanctions on Turkish steel/aluminium. Why? Again it comes back to the coup and in this case Erdogan's decision to detain that American pastor. It was that US intervention which caused the VERY sudden fall in the lira 8/

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  6. 39 minutes ago

    Not long ago investors (& politicians) couldn't get enough of Turkey. It was an econ success story. Since the coup it's become nearly impossible to make that case. A scary boom. A president bullying the central bank. A less open media environment... 7/

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  7. 42 minutes ago

    The Turkish central bank should have raised interest rates ages ago to bring the boom to an end. But (continuing the populist/authoritarian theme) Erdogan has said explicitly that it should not. Striking example of that in this Bloomberg i/v from May 6/

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  8. 47 minutes ago

    He jailed more political opponents (inc an American pastor he sees as partly culpable for the coup), he started to splurge a lot of public money to create an economic boom. And boy did he succeed. Turkey is now at the very point when boom turns to bust... 5/

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  9. 51 minutes ago

    Turkey has rubbed along OK despite some mildly scary economic traits for a while, so why a crisis now? In part the story goes back to the attempted coup of July 2016. Following that, Pres Erdogan doubled down on what some call populist/authoritarian policies 4/

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  10. 54 minutes ago

    Turkey is one of the most exposed countries in the world to fluctuations in the dollar as it has enormous amts of dollar debt. That means any fall in the lira has major knock-on consequences. Useful chart on that here from the IIF: 3/

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  11. 56 minutes ago

    In some senses, Turkey was always a candidate for a crisis like this. It had some (if not all) of the ingredients. The biggest current acc deficit in the developed world. And the highest inflation rate... 2/

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  12. 58 minutes ago

    Short thread on what's going on in Turkey, and whether it matters for the rest of us. The country looks like it's in the early stages of a currency crisis. Stock market is (in $ terms at least) down to the lowest level in nearly a decade 1/

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  13. 7 hours ago

    This seems like a pretty basic error. Slightly alarming, given it’s one of the key statistics in the Chequers plan for Brexit…

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  14. 7 hours ago

    Being born in a very deprived area can cut almost a decade off your life expectancy (vs those born in well-off areas).

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  15. 8 hours ago

    Important nuance. UK population is ageing. But it's not ageing as fast as in many other countries. Upshot is UK is actually expected to fall down the EU rankings of aged population over the coming decades

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  16. 8 hours ago

    Global mortality rates are falling. But in the UK they have risen since 2010. Not a lot, but rising nonetheless

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  17. 8 hours ago

    Older people make up a higher proportion of the populations of rural and especially coastal areas. By 2066 the age map of the UK will look even more stark: London and a few other cities as small islands of youth in a sea of more elderly areas

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  18. 8 hours ago

    Half of all girls born in 2066 can expect to live to 100 or older(!) Right now it's 28.3%. Comparable figure for boys will be 44.2% by 2066

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  19. 8 hours ago

    Good release here on how the ageing population will change the face of the UK. Short thread with a few of the more interesting points

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  20. Aug 12

    Postscript on my column from Fri on short termism & Elon Musk. If you’re curious abt the evidence on whether apparently short term investors can really create long term value, the real expert on this is . This blog of his is a good place to start:

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