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  1. Pinned Tweet
    Aug 3

    NEW: “The Urgency of : The Impending Regime Offensive & the Delicate Balancing Act in ’s Northwest” My latest, in-depth look at , for :

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  2. Reports: ~250 / fighters have left province headed west, to join pro- forces for a planned ground assault into western countryside (en route to ). They’re allegedly amassing in ’s al-Rashideen & al-Layramoun.

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  3. Unnamed officials told the regime helped to facilitate ’s July 25 attack on , which killed 273 people. Militants were released, road routes opened & hours beforehand, SAA checkpoints removed & phone lines cut

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  4. Retweeted
    24 hours ago

    Analyst take on the situation in and Hama indicates an offensive by the -n regime is imminent

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  5. National Liberation Front () fighters have launched several barrages of 122mm Grad rockets at regime positions in & northern tonight -- in response to escalating air attack across the northwest.

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  6. Retweeted
    Aug 8

    The Urgency of Idlib: The Impending Regime Offensive and the Delicate Balance in Syria’s Northwest, by .

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  7. Retweeted
    Aug 7

    Compared to Turkey's favored opposition groups, HTS has done more to prepare for an eruption of hostilities

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  8. Aug 10

    Updated map, showing: - Today's & airstrikes (red stars) - ’s x12 military positions inside the northwestern region (black pentagons). Credit to for the original map - the above additions are mine.

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  9. Aug 10

    One particular bombing, on Urum al-Kubra in western , has killed 20+ civilians, including multiple children. Many more bodies remain under the rubble. It’s started.

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  10. Aug 10

    BIG development. -n aircraft have joined in an aerial assault on peripheral areas of NW . RuAF Su-24s have been spotted bombing Urum al-Kubra, Khan al-Assal & the 46th Regiment in western ’s countryside. - A *deeply* sensitive area for .

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  11. Aug 10

    : And for a more in-depth analysis of NW and its complex internal dynamics, as well as the consequences of hostilities there, see my recent work for , here: - “The Urgency of

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  12. Aug 10

    As hostilities now look virtually inevitable in NW , watch my 3-min explainer video for , here: - “ & the Looming Battle for

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  13. Retweeted
    Aug 9

    Syria and the looming battle for Idlib | Video briefing by

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  14. Aug 10

    Things notably escalating in NW , as (1) regime bombing has expanded to include helicopter-dropped barrel bombs & areas close to ’s military posts are hit. Targets: - Khan Sheikhoun - Al-Tah - al-Tamaneh - Latamineh - Morek - Tel Aas - Kafr Zita - Sukayk - Bidamah

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  15. Retweeted
    Aug 9

    : When pro-regime people tell you that the regime is both secular & moderate, bear in mind the state-appointed Grand Mufti Hassoun (R) has called for suicide bombings in & signed the death warrants of 1,000s to be incinerated in a mass crematorium in .

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  16. Retweeted
    Aug 9

    : When pro-regime people tell you accusations of mass regime murder in are fiction, bear in mind the regime announced **today** that *100,000* people died of “unknown causes” in the last 18 months. i.e. in detention. -That’s 185 a day!!

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  17. Retweeted
    Aug 9

    : When pro-regime commentators tell you that refugees will be safe to return “home” under 's control, bear in mind the story of many people like Mohammed Bouaydati. He was evacuated from in April & returned in July. He was promptly detained & tortured to death.

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  18. Retweeted
    Aug 9

    : When pro- regime commentators tell you that ’s opposition are all extremists - bear in mind that pro-regime forces have killed **vastly** more people than any other actor, inc. . Some estimates say **89.7%** of civilians were killed by pro- actions:

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  19. Retweeted
    Aug 9

    Leaflets dropped by the regime over (see left) promise: - Your cooperation with the Syrian Arab Army will preserve your families’ lives. - Let us work together to rebuild & bring back stability. Oh, the irony.

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  20. Aug 10

    Very good by ’s : - The West must “re-assert” itself & protect civilians in NW & as a backstop, safe-routes should be opened for civilians to flee into . - UNSC must demand full access to S ; for aid, monitoring etc.

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  21. Aug 10

    : If/when any major military campaign gets underway, expect the regime (+ & -backed militias) to focus on these 2 fronts: 1) West (Jisr al-Shughour) 2) N. / (Latamineh, Khan Sheikhoun, Kafrazita) -> a gradual push ‘inland’ & north.

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