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q2-q4 2018 financial projections

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by luvb2b, May 23, 2018.

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  1. Reality

    Reality Member

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    #321 Reality, Jun 18, 2018
    I agree, the idea that the auditors can be independent when the company they are auditing is their customer is pretty much a joke. I also think a company that is competent in auditing techniques (which isn't tough) can shape a GL so that it passes audit even if it's highly unreliable. Controls testing with SOX is still a joke, but it is headed in the right direction. I also think that 'off balance sheet' items are nearly impossible to audit and are an enormous risk in almost every company.


    I have a lot of opinions on this subject because i think it is a huge problem, especially when you get into capitalization and non gaap measurements. Most of this view has very little to do with Tesla though.
     
  2. tentonine

    tentonine Member

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    #322 tentonine, Jun 18, 2018
    • Informative x 1
  3. neroden

    neroden Happy Model S Owner

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    #323 neroden, Jun 18, 2018
    No, he doesn't. He lies outright; I've caught him doing this repeatedly. When he gets caught making an outright provable lie, he tried to get the person who caught him banned from commenting on his articles. It's happened to three or four of us here.
     
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  4. luvb2b

    luvb2b Member

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    #324 luvb2b, Jun 18, 2018
    after listening to several podcasts i decided he must be a lobbyist or paid shrill of some sort. he certainly doesn't seem to know anything about money management.

    ms appears to me an educated sounding pied piper who rounds up a herd of unsuspecting mice to line the pockets of me and others with gold. that's probably the only reason I could be grateful to him.

     
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  5. runner361

    runner361 Member

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    #325 runner361, Jun 18, 2018
    Can you please share links to those podcasts? I was only able to find this one with a quick search Grant’s Podcast | Finance Expert Jim Grant on Investment, Stock Markets, Real Estate & Federal Reserve by CLNS Media Network on Apple Podcasts Are there others?
     
  6. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    #326 schonelucht, Jun 19, 2018
    What's your feeling about current workload for delivery centers? For example there is this testimonial from a former delivery specialist. And there are plenty of complaints to be found on the forums about clear failings in customer service which can only be reasonably explained by an overloaded staff. On the other hand my experience from dealing with a sales/service center that's working a less busy area, it's just the other way around. 4 sales people sitting at the desk looking like a dear caught in the headlights when you approach them for a question. To me it looks like a serious imbalance in workforce allocation that's entirely due to the dealer-less business model. I am not sure Tesla has a good handle on things there. And responding by firing 9% of staff seems like the sledgehammer approach that's not necesarilly going to lead to a finetuned optimized-for-costs sales organisation.

    Much the same can be said about their service department. It's a hit and miss for sure. Some people get great service to the point of Rolls-Royce levels, others have their cars in for repairs for months on end with bodyshop and Tesla blaming each other. Despite repeated claims that Tesla is going to do better and some attempts (executive escalation, the special parts teams, more certified bodyshops together with more stringent rules, ...) none seem to really work. And the executives that were in headline roles to solve this are all on leave or left the company, only to either not be replaced or by unfamiliar names. Again to me this is due to the business model : rapid and continuous innovation creates service costs because there are many iterations of some parts, an explosion of combinations and basically no two cars are the same (nightmare of any service tech really) Here Tesla has now chosen to also inhouse more (body shops) but again this risks the issue that we're seeing with imbalance in work allocation between different locations that they have in other parts of their organisation.

    So opex obviously shouldn't scale with revenue, but on the other hand some of the reasons we've been hearing about why it has so far may also continue to be true in the medium term (short term they'll deal with it by across the board measures, long term by having an overwhelming amount of revenue)

    I also have continued concerns about the manufacturing side of things to the point that I am thinking of cashing in on a significant portion of the large gains that I am now sitting on. Basically, the risk was always there but the reward of skipping out of the risk is just very tempting. Human psychology is very strange, I never worried as much about the money side of my Tesla position as today, even not when I was significantly down.
     
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  7. Reality

    Reality Member

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    #327 Reality, Jun 19, 2018
    What is everyone's take on the whole sabateur thing? I mean it can't be bullish right? Because it is either


    1) True, which means it was a whistleblower or something that damaged operations.

    2) False and is just a pre set reason why production #s are going to be bad



    Any other theories?
     
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  8. Reality

    Reality Member

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    #328 Reality, Jun 19, 2018
    What is this strange yellow-blueish color that my account is right now? Its never this color
     
  9. mongo

    mongo Active Member

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    #329 mongo, Jun 19, 2018
    You have a CYMB display? That is weird, some form of color e-ink?
     
  10. luvb2b

    luvb2b Member

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    #330 luvb2b, Jun 19, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 19, 2018
    you could probably find them on twitter, i refuse to link to his garbage.

    i think the delivery workload / scheduling will probably look like a huge mess. at 5k/weekly in the united states alone, they will be increasing delivery volumes by nearly an order of magnitude per week. so it's going to be messy, no one could reasonably scale that much well on such a manual process.

    a lot of the reason opex has scaled with revenue is due to addition of business lines. if you try to back out solarcity (and maybe even tesla energy) you should find meaningful operating leverage when production ramps up. that was the 2 charts post a while back in this thread.

    i believe it is true. i believe it did damage or delay operations. and i believe it was a corporate or state actor (spy) vs. a short desperate to help their position as some have theorized.

    that's me hurling all over your screen. i'm sure my stomach will settle down whenever we cross 400.
     
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  11. neroden

    neroden Happy Model S Owner

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    #331 neroden, Jun 19, 2018
    To me it seems like an imbalance in workforce allocation which is due to lack of competent management at the top level in that area (and same in the service department). I don't think "franchised dealerships" would help with the problem. I think having a top exec for service (and/or for delivery) who was capable of reallocating resources geographically, and did so competently, would help. They've *never* had one. I don't think anything substitutes for competent management.
     
  12. neroden

    neroden Happy Model S Owner

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    #332 neroden, Jun 19, 2018
    As for the saboteur thing... I think it's (a) true, and (b) bullish. They caught the saboteur. Ramping up the production lines sure will go faster without a saboteur.
     
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  13. wnorris

    wnorris Member

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    #333 wnorris, Jun 20, 2018
    I am hopeful that details will come out regarding the individual, their motives, and who the third parties were that received the stolen data. This information along with potential punishment coming to light would be a good deterrent for others.
     
  14. Reality

    Reality Member

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    #334 Reality, Jun 20, 2018
    lol, wow, bullish

    that is quite a take
     
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  15. bdy0627

    bdy0627 Active Member

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    #335 bdy0627, Jun 20, 2018
    To break it down, it's like this. Saboteur = bad, bearish. Sabotage = bad, bearish. Catching the saboteur = very good, bullish.
     
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  16. mongo

    mongo Active Member

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    #336 mongo, Jun 20, 2018
    "Sabotage" very good, especially when played at Roadster 2020 reveal.
     
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  17. Reality

    Reality Member

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    #337 Reality, Jun 20, 2018
    @luvb2b is your model in the first post the most recent one? Seems like your 23k might be a tad high but a really great forecast given the time you made it.

    Does the BI article make you questions your Q3 FCST at all?
     
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  18. luvb2b

    luvb2b Member

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    #338 luvb2b, Jun 20, 2018
    the most recent update was posted on page 11.

    which bl article? didn't see it, please link.

    did you see the lawsuit against the saboteur? debunks a lot of the nonsense that had been floating around.
    Tesla sues alleged saboteur engineer who also apparently leaked false reports to media

     
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  19. luvb2b

    luvb2b Member

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    #339 luvb2b, Today at 7:10 AM
    i had to raise my estimates a bit this morning. there are several reasons/changes.
    1. deliveries for q2 have adjusted modestly higher for s/x and model 3. this is because i now believe that the irs is counting vehicles towards the tax credit based on the date they are officially titled with the state. there are reports of tesla scheduling friday evening and saturday deliveries, which would mean july is the soonest a title could get registered with the state. however the friday and saturday deliveries will count towards the total for q2. not sure how many they could do this way but i assume it's 2k model 3 and 500 s/x.

    2. higher deliveries in q2 means fewer holdovers to q3 and thus lower inventory. this improves cash burn in q2.

    3. deliveries for model 3 in q3 and q4 have been updated higher. there are multiple reports indicating that model 3 production is now in excess of 4k per week. several vague sources have confirmed 5k weekly. an analyst note today where they counted trucks leaving the factory estimated 4300-4900 model 3's per week.

    here's the old version. q2-q4 2018 financial projections

    full update below


    …luv q4-18eluv q3-18eluv q2-18eMar-18
    s deliveries15,00015,00012,00011,738
    x deliveries13,00012,00010,50010,077
    s+x deliveries28,00027,00023,00021,815
    3 deliveries65,00054,00025,0008,182
    lease s/x % veh0.110.110.110.11
    avg price s+x106.00106.00106.00105.76
    avg price model 358.0060.0056.0056.00
    revenue
    auto sales ex 32,641,5202,547,1802,169,8202,053,375
    auto sales mod 33,770,0003,240,0001,400,000458,192
    auto leasing187,499181,557175,888173,436
    1 time autopilot0000
    zev credits100,000100,000050,314
    total auto6,699,0196,068,7373,745,7082,735,317
    energy storage180,000180,000164,500185,022
    solarcity220,000275,000275,000225,000
    grohmann0000
    services/other300,000300,000275,000263,412
    total revenue7,399,0196,823,7374,460,2083,408,751
    cost of revenue
    auto sales ex 31,973,4751,903,0691,623,2561,540,031
    auto sales mod 33,072,5502,689,2001,400,000551,366
    auto leasing120,000116,197112,568104,496
    total auto5,166,0244,708,4653,135,8242,195,893
    energy storage180,000189,000180,950217,863
    solarcity154,000192,500192,500157,500
    grohmann10,99910,99911,00011,000
    services & other375,000384,000365,750369,969
    total cost of rev5,886,0235,484,9643,886,0242,952,225
    gross profit1,512,9961,338,773574,184456,526
    auto gaap ex 3 gm28.5%28.6%26.0%27.8%
    auto-zev ex 3 gm26.0%26.0%26.0%26.1%
    model 3 gm18.5%17.0%0.0%-20.3%
    auto-zev incl 3 gm21.7%21.1%16.3%18.2%
    storage gm0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-17.7%
    scty gm30.0%30.0%30.0%30.0%
    grohmann gm-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
    services gm-25.0%-28.0%-33.0%-40.5%
    opex
    tesla r&d315,000309,060340,000322,096
    tesla sg&a510,000499,950550,000551,404
    1 time costs0085,0000
    solarcity r&d42,00040,90545,00045,000
    solarcity sg&a132,000127,260140,000135,000
    total opex999,000977,1751,160,0001,053,500
    op income513,996361,598-585,816-596,974
    interest inc6,0006,0006,0005,214
    interest exp-107,000-107,000-107,000-102,546
    scty interest-53,000-53,000-53,000-47,000
    other income exp-12,000-12,000-12,000-37,716
    1time scty gain0000
    pretax income347,996195,598-751,816-779,022
    income tax19,99919,99920,0005,605
    net income327,997175,599-771,816-784,627
    non-cont int.-50,001-50,001-50,000-75,076
    net inc to common377,998225,600-721,816-709,551
    basic shares172,000170,900170,000169,146
    diluted shares183,000181,900170,000169,146
    diluted gaap eps2.071.24-4.25-4.19
    gaap net income377,998225,600-721,816-709,551
    + stock based comp133,000133,000165,000141,639
    + one time scty0000
    non-gaap net income510,998358,600-556,816-567,912
    non-gaap diluted eps2.791.97-3.28-3.36
    balance sheet
    current assets
    cash & eq.2,045,8671,444,7281,915,7162,665,673
    restricted cash150,000130,000100,000120,194
    accts rcvbl1,216,2771,121,710821,167652,848
    inventory4,644,3144,808,7363,534,6852,565,826
    prepaids+other312,293305,001366,089379,379
    total current assets8,368,7527,810,1756,737,6576,383,920
    op lease vehicles2,527,4932,447,8662,368,8982,315,124
    solar energy sys6,345,8876,349,3816,352,9106,346,374
    pp&e12,420,08311,695,51611,061,43810,519,226
    intangible assets361,502361,502361,502346,428
    goodwill60,23760,23760,23761,284
    mypower rcvbls428,754435,754442,754449,754
    restricted cash440,000440,000440,000433,841
    other assets273,123273,123273,123415,478
    total assets31,225,83129,873,55428,098,51827,271,429
    current liabiliites
    accts payable4,966,8364,868,8453,598,5652,603,498
    accrued liabs+other1,998,0001,905,4911,913,5001,898,431
    deferred revenue606,598587,488544,846536,465
    resale value guar600,000600,000600,000629,112
    cust deposits965,000965,000965,000984,823
    curr debt+leases1,500,0001,500,0001,800,0001,915,530
    curr solar bonds100,000100,000100,00082,500
    total current liabs10,736,43410,526,8249,521,9118,650,359
    lt debt+leases9,000,0009,200,0009,000,0008,761,070
    solar bonds100100100100
    rel party conv debt2,5192,5192,5192,556
    deferred revenue884,622856,753829,114818,250
    resale value guar650,000670,000700,000756,800
    other lt liabilities2,747,2502,638,3732,633,7502,561,886
    comm stk warrants0000
    capital lease oblg0000
    total liabilities24,020,92623,894,56922,687,39421,551,021
    commits/contings
    rdmbl ncis in subs402,943402,943402,943405,835
    conv senior notes0002
    nci in subsidiaries900,000900,000900,000863,876
    common equity5,901,9624,676,0424,108,1814,450,695
    cash flow statement
    cash flows from ops
    net loss327,997175,599-771,816-784,627
    dep/amortization484,383456,125442,458416,233
    stock-based comp133,000133,000165,000141,639
    am of debt discount35,00035,00035,00039,345
    inv write-down48,08735,34725,65818,546
    loss on disposals45,00045,00045,00052,237
    forex loss (gain)25,00025,00025,00047,661
    loss on acq scty0000
    non-cash int/other000-3,984
    chgs in op as/lb
    accts rcbl-94,567-300,543-168,319-169,142
    inv / op leases84,795-1,353,019-1,022,632-419,277
    prepaids/other ca000-50,001
    mypower rcvbls + other-15,000-15,000-15,000-57,583
    accts pybl/accr liabs140,5001,212,272960,136317,983
    deferred revenue75,00065,00050,00045,795
    customer deposits00-19,82367,359
    other lt liabs000-60,560
    net cash from ops1,289,195513,780-249,339-398,376
    cash flows from inv
    pp&e purchases-900,000-800,000-700,000-655,662
    purchase solar sys-60,000-60,000-70,000-72,975
    net cash from inv-960,000-860,000-770,000-728,637
    cash flows from fin
    stock issued0000
    debt issued100,000100,000100,0001,775,481
    debt repayments0-400,0000-1,389,388
    rel pty solar repaids000-17,500
    coll lease borrowing100,000100,000100,000-87,092
    stock option excrs75,00075,00075,00094,018
    capital lease paids-30,000-30,000-30,000-18,787
    stock+debt issue cost-12,000-12,000-12,000-2,913
    investment by nci in subs75,00075,00075,00073,704
    dist to nci in subs-50,000-50,000-50,000-52,942
    buyouts of nci in subs000-2,921
    net cash from fin258,000-142,000258,000371,660
    forex effect13,94417,23211,38210,102
    net change in cash601,139-470,988-749,957-745,251
    cash & eq start1,444,7281,915,7162,665,6733,367,914
    cash & eq end2,045,8671,444,7281,915,7162,665,673
     
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  20. Reality

    Reality Member

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    #340 Reality, Today at 7:11 AM
    Yes! Love this thread
     
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