Abdullah Aydogan

@abdaydgn

PhD in Political Science. Interested in Data Science, Statistics, R. Tweets in TR/EN

Texas, USA
bakerinstitute.org/experts/abdull…
Joined June 2012
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  1. Pinned Tweet
    Jun 25

    It was a busy period for me. During this election campaign, I published four articles (together with their AR and TR translations). All can be found here: I also gave two interviews: (English) (Spanish)

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  2. 3 hours ago

    Graphs for AKP+MHP vote change (across districts) from 2015. FYI, see the above thread.

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  3. 12 hours ago

    AKP+MHP'nin 2015 Haziran'a kıyasla artış yaptığı yerler neredeyse sadece doğudaki ilçeler, düşüş yaşadığı ilçeler de genellikle batı ilçeleri. Neden??? Eğer bir hata filan yoksa, doğudaki eski AKP'lilere ilaveten başka seçmenler de MHP'ye vermiş olmalı. ???

    AKP+MHP outperformed 2015 vote shares almost exclusively in the East. Why and how? The dots are the districts where AKP+MHP…
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  4. 20 hours ago

    2018 data from yenisafak website via . Many thanks Talha. 2015(June) data from Turkstat.

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  5. 20 hours ago

    Top-10 districts: AKP+MHP decreased most. osmaniye_toprakkale -18.27 manisa_koprubasi -18.40 mersin_silifke -18.45 mersin_aydincik -18.56 antalya_gazipasa -18.75 manisa_sarigol -18.92 mersin_anamur -19.70 kirikkale_keskin -21.96 mersin_bozyazi -23.14 trabzon_besikduzu -28.52

    2 replies 6 retweets 4 likes
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  6. 20 hours ago

    AKP+MHP vote share decreased primarily in Mediterranean districts, when we compare 2018 data with the 2015 June data.

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  7. 20 hours ago

    Top-10 AKP+MHP increase from 2015June: siirt_sirvan 28.50% van_gurpinar 26.06% erzurum_koprukoy 25.27% agri_eleskirt 24.49% siirt_pervari 24.03% agri_hamur 23.65% van_bahcesaray 22.53% bingol_adakli 22.29% erzurum_karayazi 21.01% kars_kagizman 19.38%

    3 replies 12 retweets 8 likes
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  8. 20 hours ago

    AKP+MHP outperformed 2015 vote shares almost exclusively in the East. Why and how? The dots are the districts where AKP+MHP share increased. Same graphs with different labels.

    10 replies 13 retweets 35 likes
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  9. Retweeted
    Jun 25

    Initial observations on the new Tunisian mayors: 1. Ennahdha and Nidaa may not have coordinated in all municipalities - in Thala, Nidaa endorsed the (winning) Independent mayor, while Ennahdha endorsed the (losing) Afek Tounes candidate.

    Update : takes (Monastir), Sbikha (Kairouan), Amiret El Hojjaj (Monastir), Oueslatia (Kairouan) Independents take : Thala (Kasserine) takes : Maakoula (Beja), Meltine (Bizerte), Raouad…
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  10. Jun 25

    If I can I will write one more piece aiming to explain the MHP's unprecedented vote support in the east. Did AKP outsourced electoral fraud or is it simply because of voter behavior dynamics? Working on it. Also I have at least one post-election interview.

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  11. Jun 25

    After 2 months of campaigning, the Turkish snap election period is over. Erdogan got re-elected yesterday in a very unfair competition. Now he has even more powers. I think the opposition leaders did a great job, except handling the situation while the votes were being counted.

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  12. Retweeted
    Jun 24

    2018 Turkish Presidential election AA results in CSV (and the scraper Python code)

    5 replies 20 retweets 79 likes
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  13. Jun 24

    I respectfully disagreed then, and I still respectfully disagree. 1.Why did not those rightists vote for Aksener or Karamollaoglu, today. 2. Where is the most likely unified candidate A.Gul? Did he support/vote for Karamollaoglu who worked really hard for Gul's candidacy?

    Two months ago, I told here that Ince had no chance against Erdogan, for as a “secular/left” figure, he could not win the majority “rightwing” votes. (And I got slammed for it.)…
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  14. Retweeted
    Jun 24

    Millions will never believe this result because there is only one news agency left in Turkey. The AKP bought up or shut down all the rest. The AKP has no excuse because they created this monopoly and will have to suffer the consequences of how that affects their legitimacy.

    7 replies 44 retweets 86 likes
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  15. Retweeted
    Jun 24
    Replying to

    Lütfen RT Manipülasyonlar için karşılaştırılması gereken veri kümeleri: 1. Son 2-3 ayda Türkiye geneli ölenlerin listesi ile oy kullananların imza listeleri. 2. Sandık sandık toplam meclis ve toplam başkanlık oyları. Uyuşmazlık olan sandıklardaki MHP oyları kontrol edilmeli.

    1 reply 8 retweets 12 likes
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  16. Jun 24

    Aynen bence de. Maybe Outsourcing electoral fraud.

    Replying to @abdaydgn @adilsecimnet
    Sanki bu sefer MHP uzerinden planlar yapildi. Hem daha az dikkat ceker hem de islerine gelir bu sonuc.
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  17. Retweeted
    Jun 24

    Zafere yürüyoruz. AA’ya asla aldanmayın! Urfa’dan selamlar.

    754 replies 11,732 retweets 41,535 likes
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  18. Jun 24

    Sandık sandık sonuçları ilk kim yayınlayacak? Rakamlar incelenmeli karşılaştırılmalı. Bilhassa MHP sonuçları!!! Hiç bir anket yuzde 12 tahmin etmedi MHP yi. Çok şaşırtıcı.

    Seçim sonuçlarını verileriyle takip edin! Bu seçim daha bitmedi!
    1 reply 2 likes
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  19. Jun 24

    CHP'nin oyları düşmüş ve AKP de mecliste çoğunluğu yakalayacak gibi görünüyorken, HDP'lilerin kutlama yapması................? Neticede CHP'li bir çok seçmen mecliste HDP'ye vereceğini söyledi.

    0:11
    HDP Supporters in Diyarbakir celebrate party’s going over %10 national threshold and winning 65 seats as of now when % 78.5 of the votes counted
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  20. Jun 24

    This is truly beyond expectations. Those ballot boxes where irregularities were detected should definitely be double checked in terms of MHP votes compared to other boxes. Why did not half of the MHP voters did not express their vote choice in polls? Did they afraid?

    MHP at 11.5--about what they got in the last election *before* the party splintered in half--is stunning.
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