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  1. Pinned Tweet
    Apr 9

    NEW - My latest on escalating dynamics between & in : - "The days of ‘rolling back’ in are gone. Containment & deterrence may be all that's left. And the situation is too dangerous for to kick down the road.”

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  2. Ibrahim Rahmon left with the majority of the fighters under his command in ’s Jabal al-Zawiyeh region. Before his defection, he’d attempted to co-opt even more HTS personnel directly under his command, to coerce to distance the group from .

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  3. This is *big* Major military figure Ibrahim Rahmon ("Abu Obeida Kansafra”) has defected & joined Tanzim Huras al-Din (i.e. Al-Qaeda). He rejected ’s ongoing dialogue with - relating to possible dissolution, , de-escalation & TSK presence in .

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  4. Good detail on how 30-40 U.S. troops & local units repelled 500+ pro- forces outside on Feb 7. - 200-300 pro-regime killed. - 1 SDF fighter wounded. By

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  5. A agency is partnered up with a "computer" group founded by Bassel al- - it's still intimately close to regime figures & it helped found the infamous "Syrian Electronic Army. Good to know UN bodies in remain politically neutral, as always.

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  6. Interested in & the challenges ahead following its military ‘defeat'? - Sign up for 's summer school in Florence, . I’ll be speaking, along with: Loulouwa al-Rachid Oussama Chourbaji & more.

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  7. - "In the , Talks, BS Walks… ’s opportunistic approach to diplomacy won’t stop a cataclysmic war & might make it more likely. Meanwhile looks belligerent—and clueless.” - So reports :

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  8. Politically, has flipped - preferring an future than uncertainty. also wants trade re-opened, through Nassib crossing. BUT, Jordan fears a greater / role & 200K refugee flow in S. ; hence attempting to play middleman/mediator.

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  9. Tension rising fast in southern amid reports of new pro- troop movements for an “imminent” offensive aimed at Nassib Crossing (w. ) & opposition-held areas of Deraa city. I’m told the U.S. is involved in quiet talks (involving & ) to avoid this.

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  10. After latest talks, the de-escalation of /NW has advanced into its next stage - (x10 - red) & (x7 - green) to create new observation posts, ringing around ’s x12. = A substantial step forward, but one that’ll raise the stakes for all.

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  11. I’ve had multiple diplomats refute these reports to me, claiming all -linked suspects receive lengthy, fair trials - and these affairs are merely “the sentencing.” … And yet reports what others have similarly said. Can they all be wrong? Doubtful.

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  13. Retweeted
    May 23
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  14. May 23

    An important revelation for sure - but the facility has been testing missiles since well into admin days, and its activities aren’t/weren’t a violation of the .

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  15. May 21

    - 1,750,000+ people in are in need of urgent/constant humanitarian assistance = 67% of the province’s entire population. - c.10,000 people in are jihadi militants = 0.04% of the population. == just severed all U.S. aid efforts.

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  16. May 21

    Patriarch Kirill has made a concerted effort to exert primacy over the Greek Orthodox Primate in . Through aid, outreach & external affairs dialogue (often facilitated by MFA in ), ’s Church has become a key node of inter-governmental & civilian contact.

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  17. Retweeted
    May 21

    Interested in , , Al-Qaeda & other armed groups? Guess what? is offering the 2nd ed. of w. a “flash” 50% off. International shipping. - The called it “indispensable."

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  18. May 21

    ’s speech is stunningly out of step with reality. A long wish list, with a massive means/ends gap -- sound familiar? How will we “crush” the 's armed proxies by pulling out of the & surrendering to , … and … Iran?

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  19. May 21

    One key point stressed by is ’s central role re. “activist Salafist” support for ’s early Salafi insurgency. Ahrar al-Sham was largely founded by Kuwait’s Umma Party, plus others like Mohammad al-Abduli from the UAE.

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  20. May 21

    A fantastic read by by - it corrects many popular misunderstandings: - Brothers in Alms: Financiers & ’s Insurgency

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