Can Okar

P.S. Atilla's wife and kids must be delighted - pending a potential prosecution appeal, he should be home by 2019. Regardless of the case, I hope this closes a dark chapter in their lives.

But as so often with this very unusual case, it is time again to wait. There is no official timetable for OFAC decisions so we will just hear one day what has (or has not) transpired. Back to the rumour mill!

Put simply, if OFAC were to take the same line of reasoning as Judge Berman, Halkbank could be in for a world of pain. He designated Atilla as a "reluctant cog" in a broader criminal enterprise where those higher up had more culpability.

What does the lenient sentence for Hakan Atilla tell us about the broader Halkbank case and likely fine? Not much, as the judiciary doesn't decide fines in sanctions cases. But it does tell us that the judge thinks others were far more culpable. Will OFAC agree, one wonders?

Wow. Hakan Atilla gets a very light sentence of 32 months with credit for time served. So he will be home in Turkey very soon.

Guys, this is going to come in at 66 months or so with time served reducing that. With good behaviour, he'll be out in about in three years. That is my guess and don't forget, would be pending appeal.

Hakan Atilla will not be getting the long sentence of over 15 years the prosecution asked for. "Appropriately lenient" could mean anything but it won't be the longest possible.https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/996758461550559233 …

OK, fasten your seatbelts. Follow @KlasfeldReports for impending news on the sentencing of Hakan Atilla. Remember, though, this is not the news about any prospective Halkbank fine - that is for another day and will come from OFAC, not out of this case.

I mean seriously, a significant percentage of this problem is due to the TCMB always locking the barn doors about 2 weeks after the horses have bolted. They do this every time and it means that interest rates, TRY and inflation are all higher than they need to be.

But this time words won't be enough and nor will faffing about with liquidity. Last week, a mere meeting took USD/TRY from 4.37 to 4.23. When nothing materialised, yesterday and today happened. Last week a 200 bps hike would have been enough. Now it won't. TIMING!!!

Turkish Central Bank: "We are closely monitoring unhealthy price developments on the financial markets. We will take the necessary steps, particularly taking into account potential impacts on the inflationary outlook." Lira pares losses as interest rate hike looms.

A short history of USD/TRY jokes: 3.14 = Pi Day 3.50 = “üç buçuk atmak” 4.00 = Rabia 4.44 = triple Rabia At this rate: 5.00 = “High five” 6.00 = Fenerbahçe fans make fun of Galatasaray 8.00 = Everyone makes fun of Beşiktaş 10.00 = “Let’s just get rid of a zero”

It’s those kinds of irrational responses that remind us that markets not only lack perfect information but are also sometimes misled by completely false assumptions.

When Atilla was found guilty (but no fine materialised because, well, it couldn’t) markets responded weirdly and Halkbank shares went up. It might be that part of Turkey’s woes yesterday were based on an expectation of something happening today that will only happen later.

It is, of course, conceivable that OFAC could also announce today but I haven’t seen any evidence of that. But Turks and markets should know that the court has no jurisdiction to assess guilt of Halkbank as institution and its link to sanctions busting. That is OFAC’s domain.

Almost everyone in Turkey believes today is the day any Halkbank fine gets announced. Whilst they are inextricably linked, today is sentencing for its (already found guilty) former Deputy GM, not the day the US Treasury (OFAC) designates financial or other penalties.

Less than six months after this tweet, GBP/TRY has shot past 6.02. Clearly the London visit is not going that well. God help any Turkish students in the UK right now - tough times.https://twitter.com/canokar/status/932592227225923584 …

Don’t open an Embassy in Jerusalem? Most Israelis didn’t even want that and everyone with a brain knew this would happen. The Middle East is not a fucking game.https://twitter.com/jschanzer/status/996055095652634624 …