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  1. Pinned Tweet
    Apr 9

    NEW - My latest on escalating dynamics between & in : - "The days of ‘rolling back’ in are gone. Containment & deterrence may be all that's left. And the situation is too dangerous for to kick down the road.”

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  2. The 's Train & Equip program was destined to fail before it even started - it's restrictions & refusal to work with on-ground realities guaranteed relations only with corrupt, opportunists - like Abu Zayd. Sadly, the White House knew this - *from the start.*

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  3. UK Shadow Foreign Minister, : - has a greater “depth and breadth of support than is recognised in the West - The UK should support 's efforts in & - 's vetos in the UN are nothing unusual

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  4. Very good by ’s : - Not only is ’s war far from over, but the regime’s victories over rebel forces have sparked a series of “wars after the war” that could undermine recent gains & create opportunities for the US"

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  6. كريم! Ramadan Kareem!

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  8. is softening its stance towards ’s regime; recent U.S. & strikes proved largely unpopular. - for

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  9. 's air defenses were caught on video getting beaten badly by 's forces in — here are 's excuses” -

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  10. .@UmarFarooq_reports on ’s efforts to manage a fledging “National Army,” backed by in northern . - "We will work to advance the goals of the revolution & we're ready to fight anyone in the way, including , [], or the [] regime.”

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  11. Having established all 12 posts, ’s challenge gets greater: 1. Shape & control the nature/structure of NW ’s mainstream armed opposition 2. Deal with the conundrum (coerce its dissolution/reintegration?) 3. Face down hostile AQ loyalists (read: Huras al-Din)

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  12. The 12th & final post was near Jisr al-Shughour -- the most sensitive TSK position given regime’s clear desire to [eventually] neutralize opposition control there & thus reduce threats to the loyalist coastal heartlands.

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  13. *Important* After 7 months, has completed its ring of 12 military observation posts spanning western , & northern . With ’s backing, seeks to deter any -backed regime ground offensive in northwest & mass refugee flow.

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  14. May 15

    I understand the U.S is interested in possible ground ops penetrating from east-west into ’s Al-Bukamal region, to confront on two fronts -- the leading from the other axis. -administered region held by south of Euphrates would not be touched.

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  15. May 15

    More airstrikes targeted positions across the border in eastern yesterday. These actions are coordinated - on separate interconnected &/or independent levels - with the U.S., , , & [indirectly] w. .

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  16. Retweeted
    May 14

    Lots of mixed reports about the opposition’s next internal move in NW . Negotiations are ongoing about a sizable, -backed merger - potentially into an expanded "National Army." Obstacle/challenge is , which may possibly dissolve itself as per ’s demand.

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  17. May 14

    Fantastic paper by my colleague Bilal Saab - excellent detail: - "Beyond the Proxy Powder Keg: The Specter of War Between &

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  18. May 14

    Interesting. ’s April strik on ’s T4 Airbase targeted a newly arrived "3rd Khordad” air-defense system; a copy of ’s S-300. - You could say that’s a very big, thick red line for the to try to cross.

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  19. May 14

    Interesting interview by w. a Harakat fighter in NW . Brief short: - ’s ok, so long as they don’t establish political control - is paranoid about competition - x3 priority enemies: , , - Allegiance to in Afghan.

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  20. May 14

    As I noted previously, has also indicated to & that core Al-Qaeda formations in are an unacceptable long-term reality - namely Tanzim Huras al-Din. Jolani has pitched a deal: containment of Huras al-Din for guaranteed HTS survival in its current form.

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  21. May 14

    Another node here is the possibility that Jaish al-Islam - newly arrived from - may soon join the -backed National Army. Their inclusion would prove a major obstacle to successful dissolution & integration. The two are far from being on friendly terms.

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