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  1. Pinned Tweet

    Iran attacks Israel from Syria. Mark my words: some within the Syrian regime will soon start secretly cheering Israeli attacks Iranian targets in Syria. Sounds too radical or heretic? It is not.

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  2. Interesting tidbit in this tour with PM Abadi: when he took over, army officials told him they don't fight ISIS at night. He asked why. They responded it's how it's always been, no night vision etc. He fixed it. puts things on ISIS operation in perspective

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  3. Excellent news, if true. The US-backed SDF expels ISIS from Baghuz, near the city of Albu Kamal.

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  6. To understand what that statement means in practical terms, and who he's messaging to, check out my article from January: "Fragile, crumbling alliances have compromised Iraq's prime minister ahead of May's election"

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  7. 2 hours ago

    According to unconfirmed reports this guy—a.k.a. the shoe-thrower—has won a seat at the parliament. (The headline had since been corrected to 'parliament' not 'president’)

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  8. Importantly, Abadi says he's ready to partner with other forces to form "the strongest possible government for Iraq" which will 1) include no corrupt officials 2) not be linked to foreign countries 3) not be based on the (ethnic/sectarian) quota system.

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  9. PM Abadi calls on individuals and political forces to respect the election results, and to use established legal norms to challenge violations or irregularities

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  10. I thought Firebrand is his first name. F. M. Sadr.

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  11. Wherever you stand on the (least sectarian, in terms of public discourse) Iraq election, one thing is indisputable: much of the outcome is fascinating & surprising, and political stagnation isn't inevitable. Unfortunately for many, the one who shook up things is Sadr, not Abadi.

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  12. 15 hours ago

    5. An example of just one complicating factor...this from two years ago:

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  13. The results as I see them on various Iraqi outlets, per : ​Sa'iroon (Sadr) = 54 Fateh (PMFs) = 47 Victory (Abadi) = 42 SOL (Maliki) = 25 Wataniya (Allawi) = 21 Hikma (Ammar al-Hakim) = 19 Qarar al-Iraqi (Nujaifi) = 19​ Any corrections welcome.

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  14. A shameful turn of events justified on the basis of the deeply flawed argument (presented also by many in Iraq & the media) that Abadi's "strongman nationalist" credentials will win Arab Iraqis over - an insult to the Iraqi people.

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  15. While we wait for the final details, worth noting the rapprochement between Sadr and Saudi Arabia way ahead of the election was a good move, and will probably make a big difference. MBS was supposed to visit Baghdad under PM Abadi but hasn’t happened yet:

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  16. Ah but the excuse at the time was that it was all to help Abadi. Funny how that turned out.

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  17. For months, every single Iraq analyst or US official (I’m aware of their views) took Abadi’s victory for granted. The question has always been about how the Magnificent Five blocs would look like before forming a government.

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  18. You can’t grasp how embarrassing this is for the US policymakers without remembering the Kirkuk showdown and the Abadi-PMFs episode.

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  19. Also, remember Kirkuk? Support for PM Abadi against Erbil at the time was largely because officials and pundits wanted to pick a side, as they saw in Abadi the change they hoped for. America’s natural allies are all weakened, at once. And, yes, the US has itself to blame.

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  20. The perfect time to recall this episode, the time when Abadi disappointed everyone by aligning with pro-Iran PMFs only to he abandoned by them, prompting Sadr (who also ran on cross-sectarian rhetoric) to attack him as the embodiment of sectarian politics:

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