Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيم

On the surface, Hezbollah is always magnanimous and reasonable, as long as it can run its projects and policies unhindered in parallel to a hollowing state.https://twitter.com/firasmaksad/status/993509019083005952 …

Ultimately, everything Hezbollah does is in the service of protecting and expanding its armed status and its capacity to unilaterally use force without any Lebanese constraint.https://twitter.com/firasmaksad/status/993501850929332225 …

1- not too difficult 2- more complex and fun for political analysts 3- It is Hezbollah and it all comes down to Hezbollah's preferences. 1 & 2 are secondary to 3 when the s*** hits the fan...

There are 3 levels of analysis of Lebanese politics: - the formal dispensation of power (how many MPs etc) - political expediency (what alliances work for whom when) - the real balance of power (i.e. who calls the shots on the issue of war and peace)

I wrote two threads analyzing the Lebanese elections. One scene-setter yesterday: https://twitter.com/emile_hokayem/status/993135212363173891 … One post-election analysis today (while waiting the final official results so expect some minor changes in seat distribution): https://twitter.com/emile_hokayem/status/993373254428626944 … Enjoy!

9/ Shouldn’t have written ‘Tayyar losses’. Better way to think about it is ‘Tayyar underperformance’. This might lead to more public friction btw Tayyar figures who are already in competition (Bassil vs Roukoz mainly but not only).

8/ The Tayyar losses are not a big problem for Hezbollah because it does not mind a weaker Aoun/Bassil and the losses are compensated by wins by non-Tayyar pro-Hezb Christians.

7/ another aspect to note is the significant increase in LF seats. This is a sign of Christian coolness/discontent with Aoun/Tayyar, and positions Geagea as a credible contender for the presidency (yes, every Maronite’s dream) vs Bassil.

6/ Better to think of it in terms of Hariri losing than his rivals winning. It came down to Sunni voter mobilization and they stayed home.

5/ back to Hariri: the electoral law served him poorly and accepting this law was seen as one of his concessions to Aoun/Hezb post-Aoun 2016 election. He lost almost by half in Beirut, Tripoli and Saïda. This is massive.

4/ Some ugliness already: Hezbollah supporters were joyful in Beirut last night chanting ‘Beirut has become Shia’ and planting Hezbollah flag on the statue of Rafic Hariri, the late PM assassinated in 2015, likely by Hezb operatives.

3/ for all the talk about intra-Shia dissent, Hezbollah is in control. It will benefit from dealing with weaker Aoun and weaker Hariri. It will come across as reasonable and magnanimous by letting them run the official show while doing what it really wants to.

2/ The other relative loser is Aoun. With the powers of the presidency and the state, he failed to consolidate Christian support for the ‘3ahd’. Tayyar results quite underwhelming.

1/ First post-election observation in Lebanon: Hariri is the biggest loser. His traditional constituency, dejected by his weakness and angered by his compromises w/ Aoun, chose to stay home instead of voting (esp in Beirut).

I had expected the Lebanese elections to be a boring affair. The low turnout is now the big story, and this is exciting! Concern across the political elite (which is good), but the apathy also reflects troubling trends.

This chart shows you why Lebanese citizens are not excited about today's elections. The law is a mess, the alliances are a mess and confusing, the politics are messy and uninspiring (save some brave independents). Sadly, this does not matter much in the bigger scheme of things.https://twitter.com/LCPSLebanon/status/992809889767612417 …

8/ All this leaves Lebanon very exposed: to Israeli onslaught, to Hezb unilateralism, to Gulf displeasure, to US pressure. Add to that bad, corrupt governance, mounting debt and a million other ills (garbage anyone?), so yes, let me go back to Lebanese food and arak to forget...

7/ What will matter is the composition of the future gvt and its statement. Will the ostensibly weird yet mutually beneficial arrangement btw Hariri and Aoun, with the acquiescence of and to the benefit of Hezbollah, continue? Very probably.