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lymanstoneky's profile
Lyman Stone
Lyman Stone
Lyman Stone
@lymanstoneky

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Lyman Stone

@lymanstoneky

Lutheran. Husband. Kentuckian. Advisor @DemographicNTEL . Regularly write for @FDRLST @FamStudies @Voxdotcom. Tweets solely my own. lymanrstone at gmail dot com

Washington, DC
migrationpodcast.com
Joined July 2012

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    1. Lyman Stone‏ @lymanstoneky 22h22 hours ago

      Yesterday I circulated a chart showing the estimate share of the population that was never-married, had not had sex in a year, and was aged 22-35. Unfortunately it had a data error that @toad_spotted was helpful enough to aid me in sorting out.

      2 replies 11 retweets 59 likes
      Show this thread
      Lyman Stone‏ @lymanstoneky 21h21 hours ago

      Luckily, the fix was quick and easy! So here it is, the celibate Millennial population, answering @mattyglesias ' question about just how many of these people are out there! The answer? A lot, and it's rising.pic.twitter.com/kgoAfC1AKL

      11:16 AM - 3 May 2018
      • 65 Retweets
      • 167 Likes
      • David Kinney Eight Eyed Eel 🌲 Гарри ПоттерБол Tequehead Emmett Choi Spotted Toad Tom McKinney Chip Myers Alice's Logic Jack 🅱️uchanan 🇸🇾🌹
      20 replies 65 retweets 167 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Lyman Stone‏ @lymanstoneky 21h21 hours ago

          The rise, however, is not nearly as steep, and not nearly as sex-specific, as my prior data showed, because my prior data included an error on my part. Mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa. On the plus side, this is why you tweet findings early in the research process!

          4 replies 2 retweets 33 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Lyman Stone‏ @lymanstoneky 21h21 hours ago

          I should add here that @Noahpinion suggests porn drives these trends. I am inclined to agree somewhat! Porn may enable men to be more comfortable not having a sexual partner. Lacking a partner means they don't benefit from the civilizing effect of woman.

          12 replies 3 retweets 32 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Lyman Stone‏ @lymanstoneky 21h21 hours ago

          Broadly speaking, human society has developed such that the opposite sex is an important part of a given person's development. You learn a lot by having human relationships with different types of people, whether those relationships are romantic or otherwise.

          1 reply 2 retweets 24 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Lyman Stone‏ @lymanstoneky 21h21 hours ago

          But I want to jump back here: I had some people give me flak for sharing results that were off-the-cuff, and which got picked up by some incel groups. That response is silly. *the point* of going to twitter with this stuff is to get feedback. And I got very good critique!

          1 reply 0 retweets 29 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Lyman Stone‏ @lymanstoneky 21h21 hours ago

          "But won't somebody believe something wrong from your erroneous first result?" Oh no someone will be wrong on the internet. What will we ever do.

          3 replies 1 retweet 41 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Lyman Stone‏ @lymanstoneky 21h21 hours ago

          At the end of the day, sharing with twitter gets 10x as much feedback as you can get any other way.

          1 reply 0 retweets 13 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Lyman Stone‏ @lymanstoneky 13h13 hours ago

          I'm getting flak about the "civilizing effect of woman" line. The flak perplexes me. Is it a surprise to anyone that a committed relationship with a woman tends to make men better? This is a pretty solid empirical fact: marriage reduces numerous high risk behaviors.

          5 replies 1 retweet 27 likes
          Show this thread
        9. Lyman Stone‏ @lymanstoneky 13h13 hours ago

          I don't think there's a serious empirical debate about the positive effect of these relationships on men. There may be some debate about effects on women.... But I think the revealed preference of most of womankind is that they believe committed relationships benefit them too?

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
          Show this thread
        10. Lyman Stone‏ @lymanstoneky 13h13 hours ago

          I just don't see what's controversial about saying the sexes are better off together, and in particular that the male tendency toward risky behavior and aggression is GREATLY reduced by having a stable female partner (and children).

          2 replies 2 retweets 8 likes
          Show this thread
        11. Lyman Stone‏ @lymanstoneky 13h13 hours ago

          Single men have a tendency to do risky, unusual, and often very bad stuff. Single men have very high crime rates. Single men are also extremely economically productive in many cases! They're a crazy bunch! And yeah they benefit from stable female partnership!

          2 replies 3 retweets 10 likes
          Show this thread
        12. Lyman Stone‏ @lymanstoneky 13h13 hours ago

          I believe it's likely women benefit too, but being a male I am uniquely cognizant of the benefits to men of female partnership, and I'll be honest I do think men are more changed by marriage than women: and again, I think the data bears that out.

          4 replies 1 retweet 7 likes
          Show this thread
        13. Lyman Stone‏ @lymanstoneky 13h13 hours ago

          The big change for women that has effects comparable to marriage for men is, of course, childbearing. But for men, it's companionship. So if you find the idea that men lacking female partnership might tend towards anti-social behavior to be offensive.... Uh, okay?

          3 replies 2 retweets 6 likes
          Show this thread
        14. Lyman Stone‏ @lymanstoneky 13h13 hours ago

          If you think "toxic masculinity" is a problem, then *by definition* you are making a formally similar argument that what men need in their life is the influence of the feminine. Now, there are some differences in these arguments.... But in the externals, they're very similar.

          3 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
          Show this thread
        15. Lyman Stone‏ @lymanstoneky 13h13 hours ago

          So, yeah, women do have a civilizing influence on men. That's good. Lacking stable female partnership, many men do tend towards risky and aggressive behavior. I'm not blaming women for this of course; its the individual person's responsibility to account for their own actions!

          1 reply 2 retweets 6 likes
          Show this thread
        16. Lyman Stone‏ @lymanstoneky 13h13 hours ago

          I'm not arguing that women have some duty or job to civilize men. I'm arguing that the natural interaction of the sexes tends to ameliorate many male vices.

          4 replies 2 retweets 12 likes
          Show this thread
        17. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Spotted Toad‏ @toad_spotted 21h21 hours ago
          Replying to @lymanstoneky @mattyglesias

          Is the denominator here all respondents, or only never married respondents? That is, is this (never married&no sex)/(never or ever married) or (never married & no sex)/(never married)? I assume it's the former?pic.twitter.com/3uz0Vd3eza

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Lyman Stone‏ @lymanstoneky 21h21 hours ago
          Replying to @toad_spotted @mattyglesias

          This is: never married, 22-35 year old men/women who report not having had sex in the last year, divided by total never married 22/35 year olds who report any sexual frequency, multiplied by the ACS/Census measured share of the 22-35 M/F population which is never married.

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        4. Spotted Toad‏ @toad_spotted 21h21 hours ago
          Replying to @lymanstoneky @mattyglesias

          Good! That means our graphs agree now, even if they're not showing the exact same thing. Incidentally, the race story here is somewhat interesting and not necessarily what people expect.pic.twitter.com/0eaFpX9Nb4

          4 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
        5. Matthew Yglesias‏Verified account @mattyglesias 21h21 hours ago
          Replying to @toad_spotted @lymanstoneky

          Is the sample size big enough on this for that to be reliable? It’s certainly a striking result.

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        6. Nathaniel Bechhofer  🌐‏ @bechhof 21h21 hours ago
          Replying to @mattyglesias @toad_spotted @lymanstoneky

          Nope, not for a 3 way interaction. You should update by approximately 0 as a result of this graph.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        7. Lyman Stone‏ @lymanstoneky 21h21 hours ago
          Replying to @bechhof @mattyglesias @toad_spotted

          "We should ignore the largest long-running social survey in existence because the sample size isn't huge."

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
        8. Nathaniel Bechhofer  🌐‏ @bechhof 21h21 hours ago
          Replying to @lymanstoneky @mattyglesias @toad_spotted

          No. For big questions, the GSS is awesome. Understanding that when you’re restricting analysis to a small subgroup and fitting a rich model you shouldn’t trust those results is important. (This is part of why tables with SEs are less misleading than graphs with no error bars.)

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        9. Lyman Stone‏ @lymanstoneky 21h21 hours ago
          Replying to @bechhof @mattyglesias @toad_spotted

          I'm not fitting a "rich model." I've got a wide error band, covering a category (unmarried) that is large within that age band, broken out across just two covars (sex), looking at a single outcome (had sex/did not have sex)

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        10. 26 more replies

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