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  1. Pinned Tweet

    New | On a remarkable situation in which the United States now has to deal with ISIS in tricky regime-held areas through the Iraqis who would coordinate with the camp to bypass - deconfliction arrangements A delicate security triangle:

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  2. The security architecture in the region is already showing serious cracks, like 1) using the river as deconfliction 2) having too many competing parties involved in border security. My early warning, in this week's column:

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  3. Good thread about inability of US, SAA and Iran to coordinate on destroying ISIS - provides lots of loop holes for Jihadists. Which is - in part - how they got there in the first place. Each power more interested in destroying each other than Jihadists.

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  5. Would the Gulf States fall within a week without American protection, as Trump said?

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  6. Can Iraq Get U.S. To Join Russia and Iran's War Against ISIS in Syria? with my commentary

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  7. Holy cow this piece: “Since the US was not allowed to strike against ISIS in supposedly regime-held areas, the situation allowed the militants to operate with impunity in that area.”

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  8. 16 hours ago

    “... an awkward situation along the w side of the river, specifically in the villages situated between the regime-held city of Abu Kamal &the Iraqi city of Al Qaim. The Syrian regime claimed to have liberated those small villages in Nov with the help of Iranian-backed militias..”

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  10. Time to stop predicting, and start documenting the re-emergence: Phase 1 of the post-caliphate ISIS resurgence is already here, along with signs of lethargy, confusion and blunders from the other side

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  11. ISIS publicized a video yesterday from the last pocket it still controls in the Euphrates Basin near the Syrian-Iraqi border, on its continuing implantation of sharia. Now a similar theme from the Yarmouk Basin — ISIS members distributing “livestock zakat” to poor families:

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  14. Apr 24

    Read TIMEP's updated press statement for a chronology of sentencing for Ahmed Naji in light of recent developments in his case:

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  15. ISIS spokesman — quite rightly, to be honest — said on Sunday that the US doesn’t have the gut to stand up to its adversaries and instead take it out on its allies. Art of the Deal appears to be really about negotiating with the family, not in the market.

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  16. The Yemen war gives the US incredible leverage to insult, demand & not expect a blowback from the Gulf states. Another complication of the conundrum. Their hands are tied, and need the US to be fully in support. The Qatar crisis is also making Doha similarly in need of Washington

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  17. 24 hours ago

    These profoundly humiliating remarks by Trump are creating a storm in the region, already prompted the Saudi FM to lash at ... Qatar:

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  18. Apr 25

    is finding space to operate between the U.S. and Asad/Iran zones in eastern , and efforts to plug that gap by indirectly coordinating through the Iraqi government are not going to be enough to keep the jihadists down, writes .

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  19. The last time we saw a similar (if not identical) situation was during the battle of in Dec. 2016, as the Syrian regime was similarly busy fighting on other fronts (Aleppo at the time, in Damascus this time). Except this time the situation will likely continue long term.

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  20. As the situation gets worse, the US will have to either allow pro-Iran forces to play a security role in its area of operation, formalize the three-way cooperation, or just abandon the whole thing.

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  21. Deconfliction along the Euphrates never made much sense, and the US is just now realizing how much of a headache that is. It will continue to get worse, trust you me.

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