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  1. Pinned Tweet
    Apr 9

    NEW - My latest on escalating dynamics between & in : - "The days of ‘rolling back’ in are gone. Containment & deterrence may be all that's left. And the situation is too dangerous for to kick down the road.”

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  2. Great work by : - " war: The online activists pushing conspiracy theories” *They call themselves “anti-war,” but in fact they’re pro-’s war. *They call themselves “independent,” but in fact evidence shows clear links.

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  3. If we’re talking about a serious terrorist/external attack threat emanating from NW , it’s AQ Core & Tanzim Huras al-Din that we should be looking at, with a *very* firm eye. It’s "AQ Core" through-and-through - including members of AQ’s Central Shura under .

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  4. The challenge/threat that poses from NW is an entirely different one to true/core/loyalist “Al-Qaeda." HTS seeks to establish a populist jihadi territorial entity with local roots - but this is now a fantasy given its spectacular loss of credibility on the ground.

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  5. - has no firm/reliable allies in NW anymore. - has lost c.30-40% of its territorial holdings in the last 4 months. - If you want to talk about the “AQ” threat (which *is* real), don’t look at HTS (which has effectively been expelled), look at Huras al-Din.

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  6. If this was written 6 months ago, it’d make some sense, but written today, it stands out for being totally lacking of crucial nuance that brings serious strategic implications. It’s amazing just how facile U.S.-based work on NW has become - details don’t matter anymore.

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  7. Great reporting from , on how "the greatest threat to ’s hold on power [in ] could still come from his own community.”

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  8. fired 40 SAMs at U.S.// missiles. Only 2/40 SAMs were launched during the attack - they both hit nothing. 38 more were fired after the strike was done.

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  9. Question at - “Should we continue to give support to given its pro- proclivities? - Jim Jeffrey: “No.” - Chuck Freilich: “To cut off the aid completely, no… but existing support is arguably supporting Hezbollah…"

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  10. .’s Amb. Jim Jeffrey: - "I don’t think all the Iron Domes in the world are a deterrent to or defense against 10,000s of ever more precise, ever more powerful and ever more long-range missiles… the offense here beats the defense."

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  11. .’s Amb. Jim Jeffrey: - "Now we have enabled by Russia [in ]… this is happening on [’s] watch, they’re directly enabling the creation of a major threat…"

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  12. .’s Amb. Jim Jeffrey: - "I think you [Israel] are facing existential threats… from this [-led] coalition that is coalescing to your north and the inability of the American system to act effectively against it."

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  13. ICYMI - my cover story, from Feb 2018: - "How al-Qaeda Lost Control of its Affiliate: The Inside Story”

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  14. After 2 months of continued - clashes in NW , casualty estimates have been released publicly: - c.750 dead - c.250 & Suqor al-Sham dead + 3,000 wounded

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  15. ’s former deputy national security adviser, Chuck Freilich, at : - "Could Israel survive without the support of the U.S.? I don’t really have an answer for that question… Has our relationship peaked? Maybe…"

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  16. ’s former deputy national security adviser, Chuck Freilich, at : - “ is becoming a regional superpower… 1st time Israel faces an adversary that cannot be defeated… by the way, a war could break out on the northern front any day now, 5mins from now."

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  17. ’s former dep. national security adviser, Chuck Freilich, at : - “ is the most sophisticated & dangerous adversary has ever faced… together w. & … they’ve come to the same conclusion: Israel's achilles heel is the homefront."

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  18. ’s former deputy national security adviser, Chuck Freilich, at : - “’s stature in the world and especially in the is not what is used to be, it’s fundamentally weakened… diplomatic isolation."

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  19. ’s former deputy national security adviser, Chuck Freilich, at : - "Today, Israel cannot be wiped out anymore… we are here to stay, that is not in question anymore."

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  20. Retweeted

    In addition to the Syria books list below, highly recommend ’s excellent and comprehensive compendium The Syrian Jihad, which I’ve used as a reference countless times.

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  21. Apr 18

    - is holding c.20,000 -linked suspects. - 10,000+ have been referred to court. - 2,900 trials are complete, with a 98% conviction rate. - The death penalty is a “one-size-fits-all punishment.”

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