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<THREAD> Even if one defines US vital interests in Syria narrowly as counter-terrorism (CT), Trump’s decision to leave is incredibly short-sighted. 1/7
By “CT,” most in the US Gov mean disrupting & defeating networks that directly threaten the US homeland. In Syria, this applies to ISIS & potentially Al Qaeda’s affiliate (HTS). The former has inspired & carried out external ops; the latter has flirted with the idea. 2/7
ISIS remnants cont. to operate in the mid-Euphrates River Valley & a failure to stabilize liberated areas means they’ll bounce back. AQ/HTS also has a big presence in NW Syria. US CT ops won’t remain effective without some presence to sustain partnerships & quality intel. 3/7
Abandoning the US presence in eastern Syria also means giving up the most significant source of US leverage in the civil war—i.e., the inability of Assad-Russia-Iran to re-unify the entire country & reclaim vital strategic resources without US consent. 4/7
This leverage isn’t enough to get Assad out—but it *could* make the US a *potentially* relevant actor in talks to de-escalate the war, perhaps by devolving more governance to the local level in various “zones of control” overseen by foreign powers. 5/7
However, Trump’s decision to simultaneously abandon stabilization efforts (another potential leverage point), delegate all diplomacy to Moscow, Tehran, & Ankara, & leave eastern Syria means the war will continue in ways that exacerbate jihadism. 6/7
It is also true that leaving Syria makes it harder to compete with Iran—something Trump claims to care about, but doesn’t really. But even if one defines US objectives solely in terms of countering the terror threat Trump says is his top priority, his policy is a disaster. 7/7
Please remind me again on what legal grounds America is occupying parts of Syria? Or perhaps what congressional decision? Declaration of war? No? Okay then I'll actually go with orange tangerine Trumpet on this one.
Do you think Putin's interests might be the reason?
Trump has a severe diplomatic astigmatism
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