"At some point the rocket industry needs a Henry Ford, and maybe Elon will be that guy," said Mike Griffin, an aerospace veteran who consulted for SpaceX early last year and now is president of In-Q-Tel, the Arlington, Va.-based investment firm funded by the CIA.
One thing almost everyone in the aerospace industry agrees on, according to Griffin, is that space launching is "an overpriced commodity."
But Strategic Insight's Kaplan said that "probably a couple dozen entrepreneurs have tried this in the last 10 years, and they've all gone out of business. It's easy to say you're building a cheap, simple rocket, but that and $2 will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks."
Licensing requirements and unexpected mechanical setbacks can turn a rocket project into a money pit not unlike a home-remodeling undertaking, except for the scale, Kaplan said. "One thing builds on another and before you know it, your cheap little rocket is really expensive."
