(cache) WH plans for last-ditch effort to save health care - Axios
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WH plans for last-ditch effort to save health care

Susan Walsh / AP

Hail Mary, or Hindenburg? Either way, the White House recognizes it faces long odds to rescue the health-care bill as senators head home for the Fourth.

Axios' Jonathan Swan ferreted out the intriguing news that the White House has reached out to former Trump campaign officials in hopes of ginning up repeal-and-replace rallies in Maine to pressure Sen. Susan Collins, and Nevada to try to retrieve Sen. Dean Heller.

Both are long shots. Three Republican defections kill the bill, and Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky also looks firmly opposed.

The White House has engaged its political office — led by former Christie aide Bill Stepien — to put localized pressure on Collins and Heller, including appeals from Republican mayors and legislators, and perhaps the rallies.

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Sources inside the administration are deeply skeptical that this will work.

  • Behind the curtain: Stepien and HHS Secretary Tom Price joined a Thursday strategy meeting at the White House, led by congressional liaison Marc Short. The mood was bleak. Swan is told Price was the most optimistic person in the room.
  • The meeting's message: They weren't making much progress. Heller, Collins and Paul are the three biggest problems.
  • The day after: Both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue are looking at fallback options. Trump tweeted yesterday: "If Republican Senators are unable to pass what they are working on now, they should immediately REPEAL, and then REPLACE at a later date!"

Sound smart: Momentum matters — in sports, in love and in politics. Momentum is all against the GOP.

  • Maybe Rs are lucky ... Paul Krugman column in N.Y. Times: "Losing health coverage is a nightmare, especially if you're older, have health problems and/or lack the financial resources to cope if illness strikes. And since Americans with those characteristics are precisely the people this legislation effectively targets, tens of millions would soon find themselves living this nightmare."
  • Steve Brill's "9 ways to really fix Obamacare": "Tort reform should be included."
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Bannon’s back: Happiest person in Trump West Wing

Andrew Harnik / AP

Not a lot of people in the White House are having fun these days. But one top official is having a blast — inviting friends over for lunch, joking about good times from the campaign, plotting 2018 and even 2020. He was recently spotted in the West Wing carrying the New York Post cover mocking CNN as "THE MOST BUSTED NAME IN NEWS."

Steve Bannon, the proud culture warrior who was briefly and very publicly in the Trump doghouse, is ascendant after what friends call a period of "hibernation."

"He's not cocky -- he's comfortable," said a longtime friend. "And he understands the game."

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His ideas are being taken seriously, and his worldview is clearly in Trump's head:

  • Bannon loves, enables, encourages the smackdowns with the media.
  • Bannon loves, enables, encourages the middle finger to NATO, and Germany in particular.
  • Bannon loves, enables and encourages the instincts that led Trump to withdraw from the Paris climate deal.
  • Bannon loves, enables, encourages tougher tone and trade action against China.
  • Bannon loves, enables encourages a hard line on immigration.
  • Bannon loves, enables, encourages a base-first and often base-only strategy.

"Trump loves the fight, and Bannon loves the fight," another friend said.

In many ways, being cornered and lashing out is Trump's comfort emotion; and his chief strategist is always there to feed it.

Events in this madcap West Wing have conspired to give Bannon back much of his mojo: He's clearly going to stay, after being long rumored to be on the outs. He's no longer in a hot war with Jared Kushner. He played a key role in developing the Russia response. And he's back to pushing ideas the GOP establishment hates, including a tax hike on the rich and trade wars.

Bannon's insurance policy is that he's the keeper of the base. Trump understands he's never going to be broadly popular, so he absolutely has to preserve his 46%.

Axios' Jonathan Swan says that behind closed doors, Trump talks constantly about the base as "my people" and "our people": "What does this mean for my people?"

Be smart: The biggest reason that Bannon is back is that his worldview is Trump's worldview. For the all the ups and downs, in-and-out-of-favor drama, Trump is more Bannon than he is Jared or Ivanka.

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Canada's play for immigrant tech talent

Rebecca Zisser / Axios

When it comes to high-skilled immigration, the U.S.'s loss could be Canada's gain. Canada recently launched a Global Skills Strategy visa program to make it easier for its companies to bring in foreign workers with specific technology or business skills. The program allows firms to have a position pre-approved and get visas within two weeks — a stark contrast to the months-long U.S. visa process.

Why it matters: The Trump administration has moved to restrict the number of immigrants coming into the U.S. on work visas, which worries big tech and consulting firms that use the H-1B visa program to fill technical and specialized jobs. Canada's government is seizing the moment to provide an option for engineers, executives and other tech talent who may no longer qualify for an H-1B visa or who simply don't feel comfortable staying in the U.S.

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Open for business: Navdeep Bains, Canada's Minister of Innovation, told Axios that Canada wants to be open to ideas, open to trade, and "more importantly, we want to be open to people" in order for companies to grow. Bains stopped short of framing the program as a way to poach talent from Silicon Valley, instead saying that the government is "open to whatever region has talent."

"Diversity is a point of pride for us. It's a competitive advantage."

"Go North": Canada has tried to lure Silicon Valley talent through its Go North program that launched late last year, which touts the country's 71,000 tech companies that account for 5.6% of total employment — more than the U.S. The program is largely aimed at Canadian ex-pats, many of which have settled in the San Francisco Bay area, Seattle and London.

A number of ex-pats left Canada's nascent tech scene 15 years ago and are surprised at how much the startup ecosystem has grown since then, said Chris Plunkett of Communitech, a public-private organization that runs a startup accelerator in Waterloo that has helped match workers with companies. "With the political situation with Trump and Brexit, you are seeing people really miss Canada," said in a phone interview between meetings in London. "You are seeing our Prime Minister (Justin Trudeau) be more of a symbol."

Not just tech talent: In addition to finding coveted tech workers like software engineers, Canada's new Global Skills visa is hoping to attract people with specific business experience to help pre-IPO companies scale. While the Toronto-Waterloo corridor is home to many startups, there are few big corporations to sell into and to hire expertise from. Blackberry was the primary tech anchor for years, and though a recent burst of startup activity has attracted some attention, for these companies need to move to the next level the region needs more high-growth business expertise, Plunkett said.

Go deeper: TechCrunch has a detailed look at the Canadian tech scene.

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What to expect during Trump's foreign trip

Evan Vucci / AP

President Trump jetted off on his second foreign trip today. He'll start in Warsaw, Poland, before making his way to Hamburg, Germany for the G20 summit, where he'll end it with a highly-anticipated sit-down meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Here's a quick look at the biggest items on the itinerary:

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Day 1 (Thursday, July 6): Poland

President Trump will give a speech at Krasinski Square, the site of the memorial to the 1944 Warsaw Uprising against the Germans during World War II. The country's foreign minister, Witold Waszczykowski, said Monday that during his speech, the Polish government wants Trump to make assurances that the presence of U.S. and NATO deployments in Poland will remain in place as long as Russia continues to threaten security in the region, per ABC. Following his speech, Trump will meet with the leaders of Poland and Croatia and hold a joint press conference with Polish President Andrzej Duda.

The president will also hold separate meetings with the leaders of several countries located between the Baltic, Adriatic and Black seas at the Three Seas Initiative summit, which "aims to expand and modernize energy and trade," per AP. One of the initiative's priorities is to make the region less dependent on Russian energy.

Crowd pleaser: The Polish government has reportedly promised the White House that there would be a massive crowd upon Trump's arrival. To follow through on their pledge, the country's lawmakers and pro-government activists have planned to bus in supporters to hear Trump's speech, and has encouraged them to take part in the "great patriotic picnic," per The Guardian.

Days 2-3 (Friday, July 7 to Saturday, July 8): Germany

Trump will travel to Hamburg, Germany, for the G20 summit, where he's expected to discuss international counter-terrorism efforts, global trade, and the civil war in Syria, among other issues, with his European counterparts. Meanwhile, other nations, especially Germany, are eager to discuss the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Climate agreement.

Eyes on Russia: On the sidelines of the summit, Trump will meet with Putin for the first time as president. To make things less awkward, the U.S. plans to have several aides in the room, where they'll be carefully watching their body language to avoid any potential scandal.

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North Korea used a previously unknown missile in its latest launch

Eugene Hoshiko / AP

North Korea's Tuesday missile launch used a new variant not seen previously by the United States intelligence community, per CNN.

The confusion: Satellite imagery showed North Korea prepping for a KN-17 missile test, a shorter-range type well-known to the U.S., but the missile also included a second stage that allowed it to reach ICBM classification.

Why it matters: While Tuesday's test launch would not have reached the U.S. mainland, the lack of knowledge about this new missile variant raises concerns that North Korea's weapons technology might be more advanced than previously thought.

Go deeper: Axios Expert Voices charts five courses of action for the U.S. confrontation with North Korea.

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Alibaba latest to launch a smart speaker as competition heats up

Alibaba

China's Alibaba on Wednesday launched the Tmall Genie, its take on a smart speaker along the lines of Amazon's Echo. The speaker is launching in beta form for roughly $75 (499 Chinese Yuan).

Alibaba joins Google and Apple in entering the category, though Apple's HomePod isn't due out until the end of this year. Samsung is also said to be working on its own device, though it has struggled to get its Bixby voice assistant working well enough for English-speaking users.

Why it matters: A lot of tech giants are betting that voice assistants and the devices they can control are one of the next frontiers of computing.

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Well-paying blue collar jobs are going unfilled

Building supply company 84 Lumber pays entry level manager trainees $40,000 per year, with those managing top-grossing stores earning $200,000 to $1 million. But the firm is struggling to fill such positions, even as millions of college students take on debt for liberal arts degrees that won't create such opportunities, Bloomberg Businessweek reports. "The forgotten half of the high school class is suddenly valuable," Georgetown labor scholar Anthony Carnevale tells Bloomberg, "but not until they've trained up."

Why it matters: Companies like 84 Lumber are ratcheting up spending on training and workforce development as the skilled-worker shortage gets worse. College graduates make more money on average than high school graduates, but there are more opportunities today than in a generation for young workers to strategically avoid a traditional 4-year degree in favor of prospects in industries like construction.

Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon / Axios

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Ukraine says it thwarted another cyber attack

Vadim Ghirda / AP

Ukraine's Interior Minister reports that authorities have avoided a second cyberattack, which was intended to hit Tuesday on the heels of last week's GoldenEye malware attack, per the AP. Ukraine's SBU security service also says it has evidence suggesting Russian security services were involved in the first attack, per CNET.

About round two: The Interior Minister claims the second attack, like the first, originated from the Ukrainian tax company M.E. Doc, whose servers were seized by Ukrainian police Tuesday. The second attack was supposed to be the second stage of the first and was set to peak 4pm Ukraine time Tuesday.

Why it matters: Ukraine sustained major network outages that officials called "unprecedented" in last week's attack, which also hit 64 other countries. Catch up on the first stage of the GoldenEye attack here. Such attacks are becoming more common around the globe.

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The science behind therapy dogs isn't there

Richard Drew / AP

The efficacy of therapy animals — a mental health trend seen everywhere from airplanes to college campuses — isn't totally backed up by scientific research, per The Washington Post.

The problem: The research around the topic is relatively scarce and prone to cherry-picking, thanks to small sample sizes or poor, if any, control groups. It's particularly difficult to isolate if a person's lower anxiety levels are due to proximity to an animal or any number of other reasons associated with caring for it.

Why it matters ... words

An explanation: The biophilia hypothesis states that humans evolved a need to enjoy the company of other creatures. That might be difficult to quantify with scientific research but that may not matter:

"Throughout history, animals gave us some comfort. So if it works for you and me in a relatively normal environment, maybe it has a special role for someone who has a depression and stress disorder — that just makes sense," Purdue's Alan Beck said. "The literature does show it's not bad. And that's just as important."

Why the science matters: Medical applications. WaPo cites the VA refusing to fund service dogs for veterans with PTSD in 2012, which led the department to embark on a multiyear study to determine the efficacy of therapy dogs.

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Ivanka Trump pushes back for paid family leave

Carolyn Kaster / AP

In a detailed and pointed op-ed in the WSJ, Ivanka Trump called out The Journal for its contradictory article, "The Ivanka Entitlement." She argued the publication uses a supportive response from Blackstone CEO Steven Schwarzman as a platform to "make a policy distinction, to recognize the inherent value of paid leave while opposing the government's role in administering it."

Then Trump makes her case, using statistics to bolster her point. Key quote:

"The reality is that in 63% of American homes with children, all parents work. Providing a national guaranteed paid-leave program—with a reasonable time limit and benefit cap—isn't an entitlement, it's an investment in America's working families."

Why it matters: Trump, an outspoken proponent of expanding paid family leave throughout her father's administration, reveals in this letter that she is dedicated to making this plan a reality.

More from Ivanka's piece ... words

Excerpts from her letter:

  • "Currently, only 6% of workers in the bottom income quartile have access to paid family leave. Studies show that these individuals—particularly women without a college degree—are far more likely to lose or quit their jobs in the event of childbirth, resulting in a far greater cost to society over the long term."
  • "A 2012 study found that women who took paid family leave were more likely to be working a year after their child's birth than those who didn't take leave, and that women who took leave and returned to work were 39% less likely to report receiving public assistance than those who didn't."
  • "As the Journal also so aptly points out, "a growing economy is the best antidote to inequality." I agree. Women's increased participation in the workforce in recent decades has been an important driver of middle-class incomes; in fact, research by the Council of Economic Advisers suggests that the vast majority of middle-income growth since 1970 is the result of increased female labor-force participation and education."
  • "A recent poll by the National Partnership for Women and Families found that 82% of voters think it is important for Congress to consider a paid-leave program."
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U.S. asks to get involved in Europe's Apple tax case

Alex Brandon / AP

American authorities have asked to get involved in a case that pits Apple against the European Union over the bloc's decision to order the company to pay more than $14 billion in back taxes.

A source familiar with the issue confirmed that the U.S. filed an application with the E.U. General Court to "intervene in the case involving the retroactive application of state aid rules to Apple." MLex was the first to report the request.

The bigger picture: European regulators are skeptical of the growing power of American tech companies. Most recently, the antitrust regulator who levied the tax order issued a multibillion dollar fine against Google.

The backstory: The U.S. needs permission to intervene in the case, which stems from an E.U. order last year that Apple pay $14.5 billion in taxes to Ireland. Ireland gave tax breaks to the company that European officials say were illegal. Then-Treasury Secretary Jack Lew slammed the ruling, which Apple has appealed.

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Tech execs launch "WTF" group to help Democrats

Branden Camp / AP

"Mark Pincus and Reid Hoffman are launching a new group to rethink the Democratic Party: It's called Win the Future, and Pincus is even courting potential WTF candidates like the frontman of '90s rock band Third Eye Blind," by Recode's Tony Romm:

  • "Pincus, the co-founder of Zynga, and Hoffman, the brains behind LinkedIn, want to force Democrats to rewire their philosophical core, from their agenda to the way they choose candidates."
  • "WTF for short ... aims to be a new movement and force within the Democratic Party, which can act like its own virtual party," said Pincus, its lead architect."
  • "Its new website will put political topics up for a vote — and the most resonant ideas will form the basis of the organization's orthodoxy."
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Danger signs for GOP

Patrick Whittle / AP

CNN yesterday had live coverage of the health-care debate back home, with the headline: "PARADES UNDERWAY AS LAWMAKERS FACE HEAT OVER BILL."

"Popular as sunburn" ... The N.Y. Times front-page's similar ominous findings for the GOP, "With Voters Riled, G.O.P. Senators Lie Low: Health Care Concerns Intrude on July 4 Festivities," by Campbell Robertson, Dave Philipps, Jess Bidgood and Emily Cochrane:

"It is a tough summer for Senate Republicans ... Protesters have held sit-ins at Senate offices, phone lines have been jammed and editorial writers have blasted their states' congressional delegations....
"Many lawmakers seem to have given up on town hall-style meetings and parades. Others are still braving them, knowing they may get an earful on the health care bills."
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