(cache) Trump overrules cabinet, plots global trade war - Axios
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Trump overrules cabinet, plots global trade war

Susan Walsh / AP

With the political world distracted by President Trump's media wars, one of the most consequential and contentious internal debates of his presidency unfolded during a tense meeting Monday in the Roosevelt Room of the White House, administration sources tell Axios.

  • The outcome, with a potentially profound effect on U.S. economic and foreign policy, will be decided in coming days.
  • With more than 20 top officials present, including Trump and Vice President Pence, the president and a small band of America First advisers made it clear they're hell-bent on imposing tariffs — potentially in the 20% range — on steel, and likely other imports.
  • The penalties could eventually extend to other imports. Among those that may be considered: aluminum, semiconductors, paper, and appliances like washing machines.
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One official estimated the sentiment in the room as 22 against and 3 in favor — but since one of the three is named Donald Trump, it was case closed.

No decision has been made, but the President is leaning towards imposing tariffs, despite opposition from nearly all his Cabinet.

In a plan pushed by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, and backed by chief strategist Steve Bannon (not present at the meeting), trade policy director Peter Navarro and senior policy adviser Stephen Miller, the United States would impose tariffs on China and other big exporters of steel. Neither Mike Pence nor Jared Kushner weighed in either way.

Everyone else in the room, more than 75% of those present, were adamantly opposed, arguing it was bad economics and bad global politics. At one point, Trump was told his almost entire cabinet thought this was a bad idea. But everyone left the room believing the country is headed toward a major trade confrontation.

The reason, we're told: Trump's base — which drives more and more decisions, as his popularity sinks — likes the idea, and will love the fight.

The problem, according to top officials who argued strenuously that the move is ill-advised: The trade war wouldn't just affect China. The collateral damage would include a slew of allies, including Canada, Mexico, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom.

Watch for: Trump was warned — and White House officials anticipate — that an affected industry like automakers is likely to seek a court injunction within hours of any tariffs on steel.

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Sorry Mac: Windows-loving Trump voters swayed election

SurveyMonkey, which nailed the recent U.K. election, has started randomly putting political questions to some of the 3 million people who take their surveys each day. Adjusted for demographic data, here's a unique look at the 2016 U.S. election: How the election would have shaped up if the only voters were Mac users; or only PC, iPhone or Android users.

Why it matters: We've written before about the explosion of personalized data and how campaigns crunch information to find the right voters. Device-usage is one more data-point that can be used to categorize the electorate. Plus, the maps are cool.

Data: SurveyMonkey; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon / Axios

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The White House strategy for Trump’s Putin meeting

Alexei Druzhinin / Sputnik via AP

I'm told that to make things less awkward, the U.S. plans to have many aides in the room with President Trump next week when he and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold their first meeting, on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit in Hamburg, Germany.

  • Everyone will be watching the body language. Heather Conley, a former State Department official in the George W. Bush White House, tells Reuters: "If there are big grins on both of their faces, that will be the picture on the front pages of every Western newspaper, as the investigation continues here."
  • AP: "Trump will kick off his second foreign trip in Warsaw, Poland, where he plans to deliver a major speech at Krasinski Square, the site of the memorial to the 1944 Warsaw Uprising against the Germans during World War II."
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Women in tech share advice for solving Silicon Valley's sexism

Courtesy of Y Combinator

After a week of upsetting headlines about sexual harassment in Silicon Valley, there's an undeniable theme as woman after woman took the stage at Y Combinator's Female Founders Conference in San Francisco. Being a woman in tech is hard — but there's some hope.

Why it matters: As a minority in the tech industry, women often shy away from speaking up for fear of losing out on opportunities to get a job, raise funding, or thrive in the Silicon Valley. But in recent months, after former Uber engineer Susan Fowler (who was in attendance at the conference) and several female entrepreneurs went public with their accounts of harassment and discrimination, there's a sense of small progress in the tech industry.

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Some speakers addressed the recent news about Binary Capital's treatment of women and Uber's workplace issues directly on stage.

"I'm pretty pissed off but I think we have to use it — we can't just be mad — we have to use it as an opportunity to be constructive," said Cowboy Ventures founder Aileen Lee. "And i don't think that this story is over. I think more sad stories will come out over the coming weeks about behavior in the industry that's unprofessional and unacceptable that will piss us off even more," she added.

Others took the time to thank the women who went public with their stories that triggered an entire industry to pay attention. "I cannot thank them enough, they're my heroes," said Y Combinator co-founder Jessica Livingston in her opening remarks.

The hard truth: Many shared their own stories and lessons about being a minority in a male-dominated industry.

"In the last year my attitude has changed — it's naive to think that if you work so hard you won't be discriminated against," said Shippo co-founder and CEO Laura Behrens Wu. "If you just look at that, nothing has changed," said Nio CEO Padmasree Warrior, who was previously Cisco's CTO. "The fact that we're speaking up is a change — that, I'm very proud of."
"It's happened to most women in this room and we just eat it," said Lee.

And of course, there was great advice.

"Dont ask for permission," advised Blavity founder and CEO Morgan DeBaun. "There's all this data and all these numbers that say that we shouldn't exist. If you looked at the data you literally wouldn't go outside."
"Why should we be making money for assholes?" asked Lee, adding that hopefully entrepreneurs and other investors can steer founders towards firms that are inclusive and don't misbehave.
Lee's advice: "Be confident but don't stretch -- if you're a little too arrogant they will ding you for being an exaggerator. Know your numbers -- women will get dinged for not being quantitative enough. Be good at following up."

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The battle behind making machines more human-like

Creative Commons

Leading artificial intelligence researchers are debating whether machines — once they achieve super-human smarts — should be expected to explain themselves in robust discussion, or if spitting out an exceptional, if mysterious, answer is good enough.

The debate is part of the raging global discussion over a perceived challenge posed by machine intelligence to jobs, the human role in society, geopolitical power — to us.

Battle lines: Peter Norvig, head of research at AI powerhouse Google, has attracted attention with a June 22 speech in Sydney arguing that future intelligent computers shouldn't be expected to explain why they think what they think, since, after all, humans themselves don't do a very good job at explaining the true reasons for their decisions. Others argue that neural networks are simply a different way of thinking, and that even if we should be able to plumb the machine mind, there is no way for us to get at it.

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But David Ferrucci, who ran IBM's Watson project for the 2011 Jeopardy challenge and now runs an AI company called Elemental Cognition, asserts that machines have to defend themselves. "I need an explanation. I wanted to be able to critique it," he tells Axios.

Why it matters: Machines that don't explain themselves scare people who worry about godlike computer overlords. But researchers like Ferrucci are posing a more fundamental question: Are we ourselves willing to be held accountable for decisions we base on those of a computer? Unless he knows the computer's rationale, Ferrucci doesn't want to gamble. And others agree: Darpa, the Pentagon's radical research lab, is studying what it calls "Explainable Artificial Intelligence," giving it the acronym XAI.

Let's talk about it: The debate played out on stage at the O'Reilly Artificial Intelligence Conference this week in New York. Ferrucci argued that the best way to get to the kind of AI he is thinking of — the kind you can have a normal exchange of opinions with — is to study and develop a computer that thinks like a human. "[But] there is a level to those dialogues that we are nowhere close to having," he said.

The future: Josh Tennenbaum, a professor at MIT, said the answer is to study young children and develop machine intelligence that learns and thinks like them. He played a video of an 18-month-old child who, confronted with an adult having trouble putting books into a closed cabinet, spontaneously opens its doors and watches to make sure the troubled man succeeds. "That's the heart of intelligence right there. And I think that's the grand challenge for AI," he said. "...If we could reverse engineer what's going on in that kid's mind, just think what we can do with robots and other machines that could really help us out."

The Amazon effect: At this stage commercially, many of us are using Alexa or technology like it at home, but Kris Hammond, chief scientist at Narrative Science, said, "Alexa understands words. It doesn't understand language." Alexa can hold only one idea at a time. If you ask a followup, it does not remember what was just said. "You need to be able to challenge," Hammond said. "Otherwise, we would only be listening."

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Mike and Joe rebut Trump's "false" and "laughable" tweets

Andy Kropa, Evan Vucci / AP

"Morning Joe" hosts Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzenzski blast President Trump in an op-ed at the Washington Post this morning, saying Trumpworld previously threatened them with a National Enquirer story, calling the president not "mentally equipped" to watch their show, and encouraging him to stick to "Fox & Friends" instead.

Top quotes from their rebuttals about his Twitter claims from yesterday:

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  • "Mr. Trump claims that we asked to join him at Mar-a-Lago three nights in a row. That is false. He also claimed that he refused to see us. That is laughable.
  • "The president-elect invited us both to dinner on Dec. 30. Joe attended because Mika did not want to go. ... Joe was asked by a disappointed Mr. Trump the next day if Mika could also visit Mar-a-Lago that night... After we arrived, the president-elect pulled us into his family's living quarters with his wife, Melania, where we had a pleasant conversation. We politely declined his repeated invitations to attend a New Year's Eve party..."
  • "Mr. Trump also claims that Mika was 'bleeding badly from a face-lift.' That is also a lie."
  • "And though it is no one's business, the president's petulant personal attack against yet another woman's looks compels us to report that Mika has never had a face-lift. If she had, it would be evident to anyone watching "Morning Joe" on their high-definition TV. She did have a little skin under her chin tweaked, but this was hardly a state secret. Her mother suggested she do so, and all those around her were aware of this mundane fact."
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Being Trump: the moment before he sent his sexist tweet

AP

At 8:50 a.m. yesterday, the President of the United States confronted a day of tense and definitional decisions. His health-care plan faced life-or-death negotiations with nervous Republicans.
  • Within hours, he'd host his first meeting with the leader of a nation at urgent risk of decimation by North Korea, which is flirting with nuclear war. He was about to give a speech designed as the centerpiece of a week dedicated to national energy policy. The trade war we just mentioned was brewing.
  • But as the president watched TV, one topic consumed his mind and mood: two talk-show hosts who had insulted his psychological stability. Their average audience is just over 1 million — .3% of the nation's population.
  • He banged out those infamous 53 words.
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"I heard poorly rated @Morning_Joe speaks badly of me (don't watch anymore). Then how come low I.Q. Crazy Mika, along with Psycho Joe, came.. ...to Mar-a-Lago 3 nights in a row around New Year's Eve, and insisted on joining me. She was bleeding badly from a face-lift. I said no!"

The tweets would suck up the day's public conversation, pushing aside any of his White House's planned messages. They'd provoke numerous Republicans to rebuke him, and force even some of his closest advisers to admit he wasn't acting presidential.

  • Sound smart: Reread the first paragraph.
  • Sound dumb: Defend the tweet.
P.S. AP's Barbara Ortutay: "If President Donald Trump were anyone else, he'd be fired, or at least reprimanded, for his latest tweets attacking a female TV host, social media and workplace experts say."

N.Y. Times Quotation of the Day ... Senator Susan Collins, a moderate Republican from Maine, in response to Trump's tweet: "People may say things during a campaign, but it's different when you become a public servant. I don't see it as undermining his ability to negotiate legislation, necessarily, but I see it as embarrassing to our country."

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Senate health bill: Mission accomplished?

Alex Brandon / AP

Senate Republicans didn't get a health care deal nailed down before leaving town — but they don't want to lose momentum, so they're going to send the Congressional Budget Office some broad outlines of a new bill to look at over the recess. If that sounds like an anticlimax, and you expected more, you haven't been watching Senate Republicans for the last two months.

Here's where things stand on the Senate's health care bill as we head into the sweet, sweet mercy of a weeklong recess.

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  • GOP leaders plan to send at least an outline of a new version of the health care bill to the Congressional Budget Office by the end of the day, even if a deal hasn't been reached yet.
  • Senators were still all over the map yesterday on a handful of key provisions. The moderates are still worried about Medicaid and the conservatives are still angling for new regulatory carve-outs (more on that in a minute). So, whatever decisions leadership makes today probably won't fill in every detail.
  • But aides told Caitlin Owens they can send the broad strokes over to CBO now, and fill in the gaps later. They have to get the ball rolling today in order to have a score by the middle of July, and a vote before the August recess.
  • Per Jonathan Swan: The mood was somber at a Thursday afternoon meeting between HHS Secretary Tom Price and senior White House officials, and significantly more negative than the day before, per a source familiar with the meeting. In short: the moderate Republican senators aren't buying what Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is selling. At least not yet.

Here's what's on the table as leadership looks for a final deal:

  • As much as $45 billion to help fight the opioid crisis. But, for the most part, the senators clamoring for this funding are the same ones concerned about the bill's Medicaid cuts, and opioid funding alone might not be enough to win them over.
  • A new provision allowing people to use tax-preferred health savings accounts to pay their premiums.
  • A surprising number of Republicans seem totally cool with not repealing the ACA's tax increase on wealthy people's investment income, and using the revenue to fund more generous premium subsidies in the ACA's exchanges. The "repeal" bill looks more like the ACA every day.
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How Trump's 6 energy initiatives will impact the industry

AP

President Trump announced six initiatives as part of his administration's self-described Energy Week. Let's break down these announcements and analyze whether they're a big deal.

These are listed in order of possible broad impact on changing the status quo, with the first one having the most potential to change things.

5 more initiatives ... words
  1. Ease financing restrictions to back overseas coal projects: Trump is reversing a policy President Obama put in place in 2013 that restricted the Treasury Department's financing of overseas coal plants in coordination with international bodies, including the World Bank. This could have a big impact not only directly in terms of what the U.S. government could fund, but also as a trickle-down effect if other countries follow suit.
  2. Open up new offshore oil and gas leasing program: Trump ordered the Interior Department to do this in an executive order earlier this year, so this isn't exactly new. Thursday's move represents the first procedural step in a years-long process, which could have a big impact on oil and gas companies' ability to access offshore reserves in the decades to come. It won't have an immediate impact given the time it takes to bring on big offshore drilling projects and because companies have a low appetite to drill offshore because of low oil prices.
  3. Issuing a study on how to revive nuclear energy: Politicians often call for studies when there aren't more substantive options available or when they want to delay action. A study won't do much for nuclear power, and Trump isn't doing what would help it the most: regulations or a carbon tax making other energy sources more expensive. That said, if it concludes with specific policy measures that the administration acts on, it could move the needle for an industry desperate for any needle-moving.
  4. Approve the sale of more American natural gas to South Korea: Current law gives a near automatic approval for companies to export U.S. natural gas to countries the U.S. has free trade agreements with, which includes South Korea. But Trump speculated earlier this year he may get rid of that deal, which would go against his own goals.
  5. Approve applications to export natural gas from a terminal in Lake Charles, Louisiana: This is continuing the approval policy started under then-President Obama a few years ago, and isn't a departure from the status quo.
  6. Approve construction of new petroleum pipeline to Mexico: The State Department, which has jurisdiction over cross-border petroleum pipelines, approved an application Thursday to send about 108,000 barrels of refined oil products (like gasoline and diesel) about 50 miles from Texas to Mexico. This is not a big deal, relatively speaking. The Keystone XL pipeline was originally proposed to carry nearly eight times that amount across 1,700 miles.
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The 3 ways we might hail self-driving cars in the future

Andy Wong / AP

If tech leaders are correct, someday we'll be getting around by summoning rides in self-driving cars with our smartphones instead of driving ourselves. But who will own the cars and supply the rides?

Why it matters: There's lots of talk about how autonomous vehicles will change jobs and traffic patterns, but less attention is being paid to the logistical details of how these vehicles would be used. Whether self-driving cars take off depends on finding the right model to fit the demand, whatever that may be.

3 possible models ... words

Here are the three possible models:

  1. Ride-hailing companies: Both Uber and Lyft have envisioned a future in which they're shuttling their customers around in self-driving cars. And although both have invested in autonomous driving technology, the cars will most likely be manufactured by someone else while the ride-hailing companies focus on what they're known for: an easy way to hail a ride via an app.
  2. Automakers: Several automakers have teamed up with ride-hailing companies to develop and test self-driving cars, but they could very well offer their own ride-hailing services eventually. General Motors, for example, partnered with Lyft last year to work on self-driving cars, but the U.S. automaker has also been experimenting with new services like car-sharing on its own. BMW is also testing car-sharing and ride-hailing services in a few U.S. cities. In Tesla's Master Plan, Part Deux, CEO Elon Musk mentioned that the company will operate a fleet of self-driving cars in cities with high demand.
  3. Car-sharing: In his Master Plan, Musk wrote that Tesla car owners will be able to add their cars to a Tesla shared fleet and "have it generate income for you while you're at work or on vacation." Other companies could easily set up similar models.
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America's birth rate is at another historic low

Women in the United States continue to have fewer children, and when they do, they are usually in their 30s instead of their 20s. New data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show the U.S. fertility rate in 2016 was a historically low 62 births per 1,000 women, down from the 62.5 rate in 2015.

Telling stat: "Birth rates declined to record lows for women in all age groups under 30 years in 2016."

Why it matters: The CDC did not say why the birth rate is declining. But research and surveys have shown several reasons, including wider availability of birth control, personal economic instability from student loans or other debt, women focused on launching a career before starting a family, and a growing acceptance that not everyone wants to have children.

Data: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon / Axios
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Other interesting data points from the CDC:

  • The CDC estimates the fertility rate in 1960 was about 118 births per 1,000 women, or almost double what it is today.
  • Despite the record low birth rate, more than 3.94 million babies were born in 2016, which was about 37,000 fewer than 2015.
  • The highest birth rate is now among women aged 30-34 at 102.6 births per 1,000 women. Previously, the highest rate had been for women aged 25-29, which fell to 101.9 in 2016.
  • U.S. births by race origin of the mother: 52% white, 23% Hispanic, 14% black, 6% Asian, 1% Native American/native of Alaska, Hawaii or Pacific Islands.
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Hawaii challenges Trump's travel ban enforcement

Evan Vucci / AP

Hawaii is asking a federal judge to rule that President Trump's move to re-introduce parts of his travel ban is at odds with a Supreme Court ruling earlier this week. From the court filing:

"The Government does not have discretion to ignore the Court's injunction as it sees fit. The State of Hawaii is entitled to the enforcement of the injunction that it has successfully defended."

The issue: The ruling stated that citizens of the countries subject to the ban who have "bonafide" relationships with people in the U.S. could not be barred. The Trump administration's interpretation of that ruling excludes grandparents, aunts, uncles, nieces, nephews, in-laws, and other extended family members.

The travel ban protocol went into effect at 8pm ET. More on who Trump's protocols would affect, here.

Update: The State Department website says fiancés now counts as close relationships, per Reuters.

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