What's the probability you give an interview in:...

Anonymous asked:

What's the probability you give an interview in: 1) the next year 2) the next 5 years?

What do you mean by “interview”? You’re asking me questions right now. I’m answering them.

If you want me on a podcast, or (G-d forbid) TV, dream on.

Anonymous

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Anonymous asked:

I've been logging every dose that I take of Fast Acting Symptom Reliever. The doctor thought I took it too often so prescribed Daily Preventative That Might Take Several Weeks To Start Working, which I started taking several weeks ago. I still log my doses of Fast Acting Symptom Reliever. What statistic do you suggest calculating for testing the hypothesis that the daily medicine reduces the number of doses I take of the symptom-reliever?

I can’t do anything fancy, so I vote for just seeing if you took Fast Acting Symptom Reliever less in the three month period after you started Daily Preventative than the three month period before.

Anonymous

Anonymous asked:

If you were Bruce Willis, would you go back for the watch? (This is one of my favourite allegories for Judaism ever)

Man, I don’t know. I think during that scene I was thinking that I would leave without the watch, then have a friend get it a few weeks later and mail it to me. I know that’s a cop-out answer, but cop-out answers are all I’ve got.

But if I did, I definitely wouldn’t stay around to make Pop-Tarts.

Anonymous

Anonymous asked:

Is there a sense in which importing immigrants from low-income nations will lower the average wealth of a country? It's true that the huddled masses yearning to breathe free are what made New York the greatest city in the world, but at the same time, I suspect many New Yorkers would trade all that for life in one of the high-income European cities that can afford to renovate its subways and keep its streets from smelling like garbage.

I think you’re right to ask “Is there a sense?”

That is, the naive answer is like the story of the economists in the bar. Bill Gates walks in, and the economists start dancing and cheering, shouting “Hooray! On average, everyone in this bar is really rich right now!”

A lot of worries about immigration sound kind of like economists in a bar, and then a homeless guy walks in, and then they start crying and sobbing because now on average the people in the bar are poorer.

I think there are some people kind of developing the intellectual work it would take to be more sophisticated than this - like Garett Jones - but I’m not convinced that actual immigration opponents have read them or are familiar with them.

Anonymous

Anonymous asked:

is it cool if i start posting on Less Wrong and expounding on UNSONG like it's a religious text? (sort of like what you did to 'There's a Hole in My Bucket' in Interlude ו). i kind of don't want to accidentally make you into a religious figure without your consent.

I don’t think Less Wrong would be an appropriate place for this. If you really want to do it, maybe /r/unsong or /r/slatestarcodex.

Anonymous

Anonymous asked:

ADD doesn't exist. I'm sure it's more than 20% of people misdiagnosed with it. You're incentivized to pretend it does exist though so =\ just know that my medication ruined my childhood and I have no doubts it ruined others.

Request fewer of these “you are wrong and bad but I will not explain why” asks.

Anonymous

Anonymous asked:

Thoughts on the Princeton Election Consortium's "Is 99% a reasonable probability?" article?

Sorry I took so long to answer this, but I feel like the intervening time really clarified my opinion on the matter.

Anonymous

Anonymous asked:

Have recent world events affected in any way the confidence you expressed on the efficacy of kindness in "In Favor of Niceness, Community, and Civilization"?

I don’t think so, though I haven’t thought about this a lot and if you explain why they might then I might have a better answer.

Anonymous

Anonymous asked:

Why can't we cut out that thing in the corner of our eye that always itches?

I’m not sure I have this thing. Or, I mean, my eye has a corner, and it itches sometimes, but it doesn’t seem like there’s a specific thing there that can be cut out. Am I missing something?

Anonymous

Anonymous asked:

Could the "holiday death spike" thing be related to it being the few days right after the solstice, IE some of the coldest, darkest, most depressing days of the year?

The studies show that the death spike is the same in northerly cold latitudes vs. southerly warm latitudes, so probably not.

Anonymous

Anonymous asked:

If I've previously taken prescription drugs without a prescription for a long time (ones that are psychoactive but not drugs of abuse, e.g. modafinil or antidepressants), what's likely to happen if I mention this to a doctor when it's relevant? Sometimes it seems useful for explaining what has and hasn't worked for me, but I get nervous that if I mention it it'll brand me as Irresponsible or Potentially Drug-Seeking or something else that gets me something between "yelled at" and "not treated".

Hard to say and depends on variability among doctors. If you’re trying to get them to prescribe you that same drug, maybe not the best idea.

I have had a lot of patients ask for Adderall on the grounds that “I took one of my brother’s Adderalls and it really helped”, and I don’t hold it against them, but I can’t promise nobody will.

Anonymous

worldlypositions

Up and down In-N-Out outing

May 27th, Irvine CA

(Post delayed from last bit of traveling)

This evening S and I went to the Irvine SSC meetup. We got dinner on the way at In-N-Out Burger (which I largely chose because there were two In-N-Out Burger places within a couple of blocks, and I have heard that humans tend to prefer the better of two similar options over a different option, and I am a human, and I am otherwise unsure what to eat, but I do know that I mildly prefer doing things for which I have silly made up explanations).

S’s recent interest in Hungarian Martians got us to the topic of Leo Szilard. I have a problem with Leo Szilard: if I start talking about him, then I become embarrassingly interested in continuing to talk about him. My alliance with my friends feels strained as they continue to strive for happy and virtuous lives filled with meaning and moderation and such, while I am gripped and led away by the unholy urge to say more Leo Szilard facts.

I decided to just tell S this, in not so many words. He said it was ok, there would be someone at the meetup who wanted to talk about battleships and worked on this particular battleship that was involved in the Japanese surrender at the end of WWII, and if you can’t segue that into a conversation about Leo Szilard, what can you segue into a conversation about Leo Szilard?

When we got to the meetup, I found myself pretty near someone who was evidently a battleship expert. And in a few minutes the six-or-so-person conversation around me had somehow moved to the history of nuclear weapons production. And if you can’t segue that into a conversation about Leo Szilard, it’s probably just because it doesn’t even count as a segue, or because you have fallen over at the astonishing coincidence. But I totally failed! We briefly discussed definitive authors on the nontechnical side of nuclear weapons development history, and moved on to other topics.

The main other topic was airplane safety. In honor of going on a plane tomorrow, here are some interesting things I was told (that I haven’t checked at all):

The safety stuff at the start of plane flights is a mixture of ‘things that have helped literally nobody ever’ and ‘things that might genuinely matter a lot if your plane crashes’.
Oxygen masks haven’t saved anyone, and they have killed some people one time when transporting such systems caused a lot of oxygen to be in a place whose not being on fire was based on not being full of oxygen.
Something else—maybe underseat floatation devices?—aren’t dangerous, but also don’t actually ever help anyone.
Wearing seat belts on a plane is actually super useful in a lot of bad situations. Often the plane doesn’t plough into the ground, but merely lands kind of badly and is on fire or something. In these cases, it is very useful to be able to get out of the plane. Most people who die in such cases do so from smoke inhalation, and would have been ok if they had moved to somewhere that wasn’t a burning plane, which they often could have done if they hadn’t broken their bones being thrown around the cabin. And seatbelts are pretty helpful for that.
Knowing how to get out of the plane is also useful, for the same reason. This means for instance knowing where the doors are, and does not mean having some kind of Houdini-level plane escape skills.
Planes always have lots of cracks in them, but everything is ok and under control.
Pilots are very not allowed to be that drunk. In particular, they may not be more drunk than they manage to be after some specific number of hours of not drinking.
Some places have a giant community of piloting enthusiasts, and others don’t. Companies that hire from the former have better pilots.
Different plane makers and plane-related authorities produce perceptibly different levels of plane safety, though it probably varies by less than a factor of two between airlines in the US, say. The most dangerous airline according to someone who rates these things is one that flies into North Korea.

The battleship discussion was also interesting, though I couldn’t hear it well. Apparently the guy is writing a battleship blog in the comments of SSC.

california actual travel boyfriend

See, that’s what the app is perfect for.

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Up and down In-N-Out outing