(cache) Trump's new campaign: stoke the base, sully the investigators - Axios
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Trump's new campaign: stoke the base, sully the investigators

Michael Snyder / AP

A milestone, on Day 148 of the Trump presidency: Amid all the bluster and bellyaching, President Trump is acknowledging for the first time — with both public and private actions — that he's fighting to save his presidency.

It's his next campaign — triggered by his own pique and carelessness, long before he would have to formally gear up for 2020. This is a big reason nearly every action — and reaction — is aimed at shoring up his base.

In moments of clarity amid his fits of rage, Trump knows he boxed himself in politically and legally by firing FBI Director Jim Comey, triggering what he though he could avoid: an all-consuming investigation focusing on him.

Pause for a moment to soak in that the President of United States confirmed on the record via Twitter that Mueller is gunning for him. And attacked his own deputy attorney general, Rod Rosenstein (who now might resign or recuse himself).

The arsenal: Facing special counsel Robert Mueller's still-growing team of 13 prosecutorial killers, Trump is building his own arsenal. The president's personal legal team added the intimidating John Dowd, who represented Sen. John McCain in the Keating Five banking scandal, and whose Dowd Report for Major League Baseball got Pete Rose banished for life for gambling.

Dowd, 76, joins longtime Trump lawyer Marc Kasowitz; Jay Sekulow, the TV face of the team, who's doing a "full Ginsburg" blitz oftomorrow's Sunday shows; and Mark Corallo, a Justice Department alumnus who was Rep. Bob Livingston's press secretary during the Clinton impeachment.

Reuters reports: "Another well-known white-collar Washington lawyer will likely join the team shortly."

Be smart: Trump, notorious for his litigiousness in New York, is playing an inside-outside game: stockpiling talent to protect him legally, while publicly trying to discredit the investigators and whatever they might eventually say or do.

A problem for Trump: Those things are at odds. Everything Trump says now, Bob Mueller will use against him.

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Big payday awaits first Trump insider to tell all

Pablo Martinez Monsivais / AP

A source from a Fortune 100 company tells me his business was ready to pay an eye-popping price to have Kellyanne Conway speak to them shortly after the election. Her going rate in December: $75,000 for a "local" speech and $100,000 for outside the New York area. That's not far from Clinton money.

Conway and others who joined the White House gave up that immediate earning capacity, but a well-known book agent tells me she and other top officials could expect "high seven figures" if they publish the first "insider" book on life inside the Trump campaign or White House. The agent told me he's heard from a number of officials currently inside the White House who want to know how much money they could expect to make from writing books when they leave.

Corey Lewandowski is reportedly one step ahead of them. CNN's Oliver Darcy reports that the sacked campaign manager is shopping a book through his agent. I'm told he can expect more than $1 million if he goes through with it.

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McConnell wants to force health care vote by July 4th

Pablo Martinez Monsivais / AP

Sources close to Mitch McConnell tell me the Majority Leader is dead serious about forcing a Senate vote on the Obamacare repeal-and-replace bill before the July 4 holiday.

Some senators want to delay the vote but McConnell views that as delaying the inevitable. There are no mysteries about what the toughest disagreements are over — Medicaid funding and insurance market regulations.

  • This week is crucial: the Senate won't vote without a CBO score, which means they need to finalize negotiations this week.
  • Behind-the-scenes: McConnell and Senate leaders have been at this for all of May and now first couple weeks of June, turning their weekly lunches into working sessions on various aspects of the healthcare legislation. They've whittled down the stack of items that people don't agree on. I've spoken to a number of people who know McConnell well who speculate that he'll force a vote regardless of whether he knows he has 50 votes. They say he's desperate to move on to tax reform and can't have healthcare hanging around like a bad smell through the summer.

On the House side:

  • Following the White House's "Workforce Development Week," House GOP leadership will vote on two workforce bills. The big one: a bipartisan bill to reauthorize the "Perkins Act" for six years — providing more than $1 billion per year in federal support for career and technical education programs.
  • Wednesday's conference meeting is expected to be more policy-focused than usual. (They had to cancel Friday's meeting due to the fallout from last week's shooting.) A senior House aide tells me the Wednesday conference will focus on the budget caps and appropriations.
  • Paul Ryan and Kevin McCarthy will both address the National Association of Manufacturers. Ryan pushing tax reform and McCarthy on reg reform and workforce development.
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What Apple's Tim Cook will tell Trump

Evan Vucci / AP

Apple CEO Tim Cook will be at the White House Monday for tech meetings organized by Jared Kushner's Office of American Innovation. It's the first of two heavy-hitter meetings in what the White House is calling "Technology Week."

A source tells me Cook, who doesn't belong to any of the President's councils, plans to proactively raise four issues:

  1. Immigration: Cook will participate in the session titled "H-1B/immigration." He's got a long history of arguing for the importance of immigration to the American economy and doesn't agree with the Trump-Bannon-Sessions view that unchecked immigration has been driving down wages and stealing jobs from Americans.
  2. Encryption: Cook will "fly the flag" for strong encryption. This has been a controversial issue within the administration and it remains unsettled. Shortly after the San Bernardino shootings, Trump called for a boycott of Apple products because Cook refused to cooperate with the FBI after it requested that Apple create a special version of its operating software that would have given the government a backdoor into the iPhone used by the terrorists. Cook took a lot of incoming after saying it'd compromise customers' privacy and security. Some argue Cook has been vindicated given subsequent leaks from federal agencies.
  3. Veterans' affairs: How to better serve vets both in the provision of medical care and in hiring policies.
  4. How the administration talks about human rights: Ensuring it remains a priority for the U.S., both domestically and internationally.

Other points on Tech Week:

  • I'm told the White House won't be rolling out any new policies or signing any executive orders related to technology.
  • Tomorrow: Attendees are expected to include Alphabet Chairman Eric Schmidt, Amazon's Jeff Bezos, Microsoft's Satya Nadella, IBM's Ginni Rometty, Oracle's Safra Catz, and venture capitalist John Doerr, among others. Cabinet secretaries will attend and the President will drop by, too.
  • Wednesday: Per a White House official: "We're taking the tech conversation to rural America ... [W]e'll be in Iowa talking about agriculture and technology and showcasing the latest technology that is changing the way farmers produce, harvest, and market food." The event will double as a send-off for Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad, who's heading to China to be the U.S. ambassador.
  • Thursday: Breakout sessions focusing on 5G and the Internet of Things, the commercial use of drones, and what the administration can do to spur innovation. The attendees are expected to come together after their more specialized sessions for a meeting with Trump. C-suite level executives and general partners from venture capital firms have been invited. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross will play a key role.

What's next: "Energy Week." (These branded weeks are part of the White House's framing of June as "Jobs Month" — focused on public-private partnerships.)

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Trump's hands-off approach to looming debt ceiling fight

Jim Lo Scalzo / AP

President Trump is likely to play a much smaller role than previous presidents have played in the looming debt ceiling crisis.

Marc Short, the director of the White House's Office of Legislative Affairs, has told associates his recommendation to the President is that the House and Senate should initiate the debt limit negotiations within their own conferences rather than leaning on Trump to do the heavy lifting. (During the previous debt ceiling crises, Obama took the opposite strategy — aggressively lobbying Congress both publicly and privately.)

  • Short's reasoning, according to sources familiar with his private conversations, is that congressional spending habits got America into this mess and the President has enough on his plate with healthcare, tax reform — not to mention the escalating Russia investigation — and would gain nothing from spending his political capital on the debt ceiling fight.
  • Trump will ultimately have to play some role in the debt ceiling debate, but the White House won't have him out there providing cover for congressional leadership to negotiate an unpopular (read: Democratic/moderate-led ) bill.
  • The current White House thinking is that Congress should first present solid options to them while the administration focuses on health care, tax reform, and infrastructure.

Why this matters: Presidents have traditionally used the weight of the presidency — in various ways public and private — to push Congress to raise the ceiling. Some in Republican leadership circles are frustrated that the White House has no unified position on the debt ceiling strategy and appears willing to make GOP leadership do the thankless work.

"This is the full faith and credit of the United States of America. It needs presidential leadership," said a source briefed on Short's recommendation. "It is not in a single member's best interest to vote for [a debt ceiling raise] and it has always taken the weight of the presidency behind it."

Current status of the debt ceiling debate:

Nobody agrees on anything. Congressional leadership has done little serious work so far and is nowhere near settled on a strategy.

  • The Trump Administration wants Congress to raise the nation's borrowing limit before the August recess.
  • But the administration hasn't agreed on how it should be done. Budget Director Mick Mulvaney wants to use the debt limit bill to cut spending. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin just wants the debt ceiling raised without fuss — to avoid a last-minute standoff in September that could crash markets.

Three broad options being informally discussed:

  1. The conservative route: the House Freedom Caucus and conservatives in the administration, like Mulvaney, want to attach the debt ceiling raise to reforms that would seriously address the nation's debt crisis. An example would be attaching the debt limit to a balanced-budget amendment. A source close to leadership described this option as a "fantasy" with no hope of passing the Senate.
  2. The "clean" option: The conventional wisdom until recently has been that Democrats would support a clean debt ceiling bill, but sources in the White House and in leadership circles have told me they're no longer confident. "Now they're saying we have all the leverage, we should be asking for [progressive] stuff," one source said.
  3. The moderate Republican/Democrat option: attaching the debt limit raise to "must-pass" priorities for moderates like reauthorizing CHIP [the Children's Health Insurance Program] or lifting discretionary spending caps. A source close to leadership summarized this option as: "let's look at all the hard stuff that we have to do before the end of the year, and put it all together into one governing package."

Between the lines: Some in the White House believe Republican leadership has already given up on the Freedom Caucus / Mulvaney approach to the debt limit and already concluded the only workable path is to collaborate with Democrats and moderate Republicans. They believe leadership wants cover from the President for this unpopular strategy, which would enrage true-believer grassroots conservatives and figures at right-wing media outlets like Breitbart. Sources familiar with leadership's thinking, however, tell me they're not close to having made such decisions. (That said, a good number have admitted to me privately that they think working with the Freedom Caucus on the debt ceiling is a lost cause.)

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Macron's party wins majority in French parliamentary elections

Bertrand Guay / AP

Emmanuel Macron's newly-formed Republique en Marche party is projected to have won at least 355 seats in Sunday's parliamentary election, meaning France's new president will have a parliamentary majority. Other takeaways:

  • Turnout was historically low, in a sign of disillusionment with the state of French politics.
  • Frederic Dabi of the IFOP polling firm told the AP that another factor could be the considerable confusion in France surrounding Macron's party, which recruited first-time candidates from both right and left of center, and has shaken up the traditional partisan divide.
  • Marine Le Pen of the far right Front National won a parliamentary seat for the first time, though results were mixed for her party.
What's next: Macron, 39, has won landslides in the presidential and parliamentary elections in a stunning political rise. Now all the power is in his hands, and expectations will weigh heavy on his shoulders as he sets out to govern.
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Health care is a jobs bonanza, except when it isn't

The U.S. economy has had one, big, reliable source of increased employment over the last decade — health care, which has added jobs all the way through, including during the 2008-09 recession, which ripped through other sectors. But this growth hasn't been evenly distributed — health jobs have been a bonanza for Californians and New Mexicans; but east of the Rockies, not so much.


*Industry-specific employment numbers are often suppressed at the county level in order to avoid disclosing the identities of individual employers. Note: Health care employment figures are taken from the Census Bureau's County Business Patterns dataset and include employed persons under the "Health care and social assistance" NAICS classification.
Data: Census Bureau; Graphic: Chris Canipe / Axios

In fact in many counties, the number of health care jobs actually fell between 2013 and 2015, after implementation of the Affordable Care Act (in the map below, brown indicates up to 20% added employment between 2013 and 2015. Blue is up to minus 20%.). Nationally, health jobs rose to 19.2 million in 2015, up from 18.6 million two years earlier. (We reported last week on the relationship, by state, between increased jobs and health care coverage.)

Why it matters: If the Republican-controlled Congress cuts coverage, that could slow down job growth. But this map shows winners and losers in terms of health care employment, and suggests that some places could lose more, and others gain, should a new law be enacted.

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How AI is taking over the global economy in one chart

For decades, corporate America has spurned big-lab research-and-development spending, the type that delivered the dizzying and broad tech and economic progress of the last century. But a belief that artificial intelligence is going to drive the next big economic wave has led today's largest companies — like Google, IBM and Microsoft — to revert to the old, ambitious R&D model. And their Chinese competitors — Baidu and Alibaba — aren't far behind.

These five companies — plus Amazon, Facebook and Google — combined are investing more in research and development than many entire economies. In 2015, for instance, the entire U.K. economy — companies and the government — invested $53.8 billion in R&D, less than the $58.2 billion posted by the big eight. Take a look at the chart below.

Data: OECD, Company disclosures; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon / Axios

Why it matters: In an economy in which corporate R&D spending has been conspicuously absent, these companies are investing big on the future. This dynamic underscores the growing advantage that a company like Amazon has over incumbent rivals: Investors bid up Amazon stock to sky-high multiples, lowering its cost of capital and enabling more robust investment and low prices.

A level deeper — more economic inequality: That these companies are investing in the long term is great for the U.S. and Chinese economies. It helps to power economic growth and makes workers more productive. But, at least in the U.S, it's also a sign of growing economic inequality, which underpins income inequality among workers, one reason for the election of President Donald Trump.

One more level down: The outsized spend is also buttressing these companies' market heft and risks a pushback to their monopoly power.

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Amazon has scared grocers — and others — the world over

In the 1970s, oil behemoths, then kings of the corporate world, bought up department stores, beef canners and even the Barnum and Bailey Circus. But is it now the turn of the big five U.S. tech companies to snap up some economic prizes?

What was most surprising about Amazon's stunning $13 billion acquisition of Whole Foods last week was its juxtaposition with CEO Jeff Bezos' years of denunciations — and destruction — of brick-and-mortar retail chains. And people sense it may signal the front end of a wave of legacy sector acquisitions:

  • We already have Silicon Valley moving in on Detroit's turf, creating a tense contest for who will dominate self-driving transportation.
  • But to the degree the Whole Foods acquisition is not an anomaly, don't look for the tech giants to mimic the oil companies of yore, and venture far from their core businesses.
  • Amazon is also unlikely to conduct a massive firing of workers, which would undermine the Whole Foods brand.

What seems informative is Bezos's 2013 acquisition of the Washington Post, which met immediate consternation that he would strip the paper to make it more profitable. Instead, he poured cash in, and the paper is turning out some of its best journalism in years.

Be smart: That's why it seems best to ignore forecasts that Amazon will dramatically change Whole Foods culture, its fare, and operating style. Instead, he will want to embrace Whole Foods high-end quality brand, and hope it washes over onto cut-rate Amazon reputation.

Capgemini's Shannon Warner, a retail consultant, tells Axios that Bezos will likely use Whole Foods to figure out how to make grocery shopping feel like less of a chore. If he can crack that problem, she said, "people will embrace it overnight." And that will be a critical moment for other grocery chains, which "waited too long and no longer have the capital to invest and survive."

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Six members of HIV/AIDS council quit, saying Trump "doesn't care"

NIAID via Flickr CC

The Presidential Advisory Council on HIV/AIDS has lost six of its 18 members, and the ones who quit have issued a blistering statement via Newsweek about why they left. They're mad at him for not appointing anyone to lead the White House Office of National AIDS Policy, taking down its website and not replacing it, and appearing to have "no plan at all." They say the Affordable Care Act repeal bill would be especially damaging, since the ACA has helped people living with HIV.

The bottom line: "We have dedicated our lives to combating this disease and no longer feel we can do so effectively within the confines of an advisory body to a president who simply does not care."

Update: A White House official responds that Trump's top health care policy adviser, Katy Talento, a former associate director of the Whitman-Walker Clinic, is an expert on infectious diseases and her hiring was praised by AIDS advocacy groups. The official said the council members never reached out to Talento or Andrew Bremberg, the director of the White House Domestic Policy Council, about their concerns.

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This robot chef is learning to make pizza

Bruno Siciliano and Prisma Lab

Robotic Dynamic Manipulation, known as RoDyMan, could soon become the first robot chef to make a pizza, Scientific American reports. Currently, the robot is learning to toss and knead the dough.

To teach the robot, master pizza chef Enzo Coccia wore a suit of movement-tracking sensors to analyze movements that RoDyMan tries to mimic. The robot is equipped with visual sensors to follow the dough in real time, and map its position as it's tossed in the air. Engineer Bruno Siciliano, who has been working in the robot for five years, hopes that with practice it will be able to hold and handle the pizza as a chef would.

The main goal for RoDyMan is eventually "to emulate a chef's agility and dexterity with the best performing mobile bimanual robot system," Siciliano told Axios. RoDyMan will debut at the Naples pizza festival in May 2018.