On 5 November 1915, in Prague, Dr Franz Kafka, a deeply educated lawyer, a fast-track highflyer in the service of his state, co-owner of an asbestos factory and newly announced winner of Berlin’s biggest literary prize, concluded that the Germanic victory he desired was now certain. He therefore rationally and freely chose to enhance his future wealth by putting about £30,000 in today’s money into a rock-solid vehicle: Austrian 5.5 per cent fifteen-year bonds. It was not a prophetic call: three years later, the Habsburg Empire defaulted on its centuries-old sovereign debt by the simple, if drastic, method of ceasing to exist.