Zvi Mowshowitz @TheZvi
Survey question: Randomly selected 12yo American decides to devote next 5 years to getting into Harvard. Tries for real. Chance of success?
This was after asking Michael Vassar as a similar question, although there I worded it “What do you think is the chance that, given a kid at age 12 (let's say) who decides to dedicate their life to getting into Harvard, that they get in?”
[You may want to think about your own answer before looking at his.]His response was: VERY high, assuming any creativity, decent information, and an IQ of 120+, but them getting in would both demonstrate and create lots of human capital.
That got me curious enough to ask on Twitter.
Here were their answers:
Brendan M @ImNotTheWorst
@TheZvi "80 to 90 percent of Harvard applicants are qualified to be here." --argument for admission lotteryhttp://www.thecrimson.com/column/b
David Siegel @davidhsiegel
@TheZvi I peg it at 5%
David Siegel @davidhsiegel
@TheZvi lesee: Have to be above average aptitude to have chance. Socioeconomic ditto. Harvard has 10% admit rate, ~1/2 apps good candidates
Michael Caffrey @mchainmail
@TheZvi depends what his chance of making 200,000 in 5 years is...
Seth Burn @SethBurn
@Dustyg013 @thepchapin @armlx @meddlingmage @TheZviLikely? No. Has a chance, sure.
Dustin Gilliland @Dustyg013
@SethBurn @thepchapin @armlx @meddlingmage @thezvi do that for a random 12 year old and he is likely to get into Harvard
Dustin Gilliland @Dustyg013
@SethBurn @thepchapin @armlx @meddlingmage @thezvi but, he raised his measured IQ by 40 points between 18-21 years old.
Dustin Gilliland @Dustyg013
@TheZvi what % of 12yo have a significant learning disability? I'll take the inverse of that minus an adjustment for mortality rate
Seth Burn @SethBurn
@Dustyg013 @thepchapin @armlx @meddlingmage @TheZvi Also, no football scholarships at Harvard. :(
Seth Burn @SethBurn
@Dustyg013 @thepchapin @armlx @meddlingmage @TheZvi He is a stunning statistical oddity. It is very hard to play football that well.
Dustin Gilliland @Dustyg013
@thepchapin @sethburn @armlx @meddlingmage @thezvi how many people in this conversation are familiar with Michael Oher?
Bradley A. Davis @BradDavis711
@meddlingmage @samuelhblack @armlx @thezvi certainly < 2%.. Aptitude is significant.
Craig Hong @CraigHong
@TheZvi especially difficult to define when nobody really knows what trying means to anyone else.
Chris Pikula @meddlingmage
@SamuelHBlack @armlx @thezvi agree with Sam. Just not clear on what try means.
Erek @melink14
@thepchapin @SethBurn @armlx @meddlingmage @TheZvi Want to seal the deal? Arrange for a tragic death of a close family member. 90% easy.
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Erek @melink14
@thepchapin @SethBurn @armlx @meddlingmage @TheZvi Guys, it's easy starting at 12 you should have all perfect stats and several intl prizes.
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Kenyon Colloran @Azcz
@mixedknuts @famousPJ @TheZvi Same with almost all of my Stanford friends. Outside of athletes I think none were deadset on Stanford.
Kenyon Colloran @Azcz
@mixedknuts @famousPJ @TheZvi They're smart and work hard, but they weren't devoted to it and would've been ok elsewhere.
Kenyon Colloran @Azcz
@mixedknuts @famousPJ @TheZvi Yes I think that. Most people didn't set their minds on going to Harvard.
Sam Black @SamuelHBlack
@armlx @meddlingmage @TheZvi I don't understand the definition of "try" well enough to attempt to answer this.
Theodore Knutson @mixedknuts
@thepchapin @SethBurn @armlx @meddlingmage @TheZvi Pretty sure you have a red flag, chief.
Alicorn @luminousalicorn
@luminousalicorn @TheZvi Because most 12 year olds don't have the "try for real for five years" power.
Patrick Chapin @thepchapin
@thepchapin @SethBurn @armlx @meddlingmage @TheZvi Bets on me getting accepted into Harvard in the next two years?
Alicorn @luminousalicorn
@TheZvi Tries-for-real modulo 12 year olds, or tries-for-real like we're postulating super trying powers?
Patrick Chapin @thepchapin
@SethBurn @armlx @meddlingmage @TheZvi See, I am a little more in the "you can do anything you put your mind to" camp.
Theodore Knutson @mixedknuts
@Azcz @famousPJ @TheZvi You think people were just like, oh Harvard, okay cool? Huge majority of those people busted ass to get in.
Theodore Knutson @mixedknuts
@Azcz @TheZvi As I mentioned to Seth, closer to 75%. Too many things involved in the Harvard process you can't fake/overcome with hard work
Kenyon Colloran @Azcz
@SethBurn @thepchapin @armlx @meddlingmage @TheZvi The odds are quite low if the efforts of the students don't change.
Kenyon Colloran @Azcz
@SethBurn @armlx @meddlingmage @TheZvi We're working on the assumption they're uber-dedicated right?
Seth Burn @SethBurn
@thepchapin @armlx @meddlingmage @TheZvi As for the lower bound, I'd say between 15-20% is true dead money, as in trace elements % chance.
Kenyon Colloran @Azcz
@famousPJ @TheZvi @mixedknuts I doubt very many of them were particularly dedicated to getting in. Even those who actually got in.
Seth Burn @SethBurn
@thepchapin @armlx @meddlingmage @TheZvi If you have 4 moderately bright non-legacies you are still more than a 3.5-1 dog to get any in.
Kenyon Colloran @Azcz
@mixedknuts @TheZvi What percent of population would you say has no chance to get into Harvard? 90%?
Seth Burn @SethBurn
@thepchapin @armlx @meddlingmage @TheZvi The issue isn't the lower bound (although it is an issue) as much as the upper bound.
Patrick Chapin @thepchapin
@SethBurn @armlx @meddlingmage @TheZvi What percentage of random 12 year-olds do you believe have almost no possible chance? Whats your bar?
Ian @Kirblar024
@thepchapin @SethBurn @armlx @meddlingmage @TheZvi Mill on the line, or a Mill needed to "donate" to charitable foundations?
Seth Burn @SethBurn
@thepchapin @armlx @meddlingmage @TheZvi That's the "Hacking Harvard" scenario. If they were truly random, you'd likely need to cheat.
Patrick Chapin @thepchapin
@SethBurn @armlx @meddlingmage @TheZvi Give me 4 at random & I'll get at least 1 of them in, as long as we have at least a mill on the line.
Joshua J. @JoshJMTG
@mixedknuts @TheZvi I went to Georgia Tech in the end. Only school I sent an actual application to.
Seth Burn @SethBurn
@armlx @meddlingmage @TheZvi The key being the selection process of the 12-year old.
Alex Ullman @nerdtothecore
@SethBurn @armlx @meddlingmage @TheZvi % is probably higher than 2. Given random sample, greater likelihood being someone university wants
Seth Burn @SethBurn
@armlx @meddlingmage @TheZvi Finally, if you allow the student more outs (Yale, MIT, CMC), then your odds should reach acceptable levels.
Seth Burn @SethBurn
@armlx @meddlingmage @TheZvi However, as soon as you create some criteria for your 12-year old, the odds increase significantly.
Seth Burn @SethBurn
@armlx @meddlingmage @TheZvi That means for a random 12-year old that % has to be significantly lower. Anything above 2% would surprise me.
Theodore Knutson @mixedknuts
@Azcz @TheZvi but I'll tell you up front your guess of "reasonable portion of the population" is insane.
Seth Burn @SethBurn
@armlx @meddlingmage @TheZvi The acceptance rate among mostly self selected students who DID bust their ass is around 5.9%.
paul jordan @famousPJ
@TheZvi Harvard acceptance rate was 5.9% in 2012. Presumably all of those kids were pretty dedicated to getting in.
Theodore Knutson @mixedknuts
@Azcz @TheZvi I tell you what. Look at the stats and do the math and get back to me. I ballparked-didn't look directly at the data
Theodore Knutson @mixedknuts
@JoshJMTG @TheZvi Funnily enough, I took the latter
Kenyon Colloran @Azcz
@mixedknuts @TheZvi I think a reasonable portion of population could get in if they made it their mission.
Joshua J. @JoshJMTG
@mixedknuts @TheZvi (Or if I'd taken the full ride offer from Oklahoma. That was a weird one.)
Joshua J. @JoshJMTG
@mixedknuts @TheZvi But yeah, I kind of wonder what would have happened had I gone that route. Major life changer for sure.
Joshua J. @JoshJMTG
@mixedknuts @TheZvi I didn't want to go to Harvard. If I were going to one of the "big money" schools it'd have been MIT.
GiantSquidOverdrive @GiSqOd
@TheZvi Finally, I think a lot of people overestimate how hard it is to get into Harvard in 2012.
Kenyon Colloran @Azcz
@mixedknuts @TheZvi I suppose Zvi means by tries for real. At Stanford most people were somewhat smart and somewhat hardworking.
GiantSquidOverdrive @GiSqOd
@TheZvi But if s/he spends 5 years in rigorous prep, odds are very very good. 12yo’s are highly malleable, both cognitively & behaviorally.
Kenyon Colloran @Azcz
@mixedknuts @TheZvi Based on personal experiences I don't think that many people at Harvard are actually that hard working.
GiantSquidOverdrive @GiSqOd
@TheZvi Maybe we mean different things by “devote”. If you mean the kid “really hopes super hard”, then yeah… not much better than baseline.
Pip griffiths @PhdPip
@PhdPip @thezvi sorry, thought it said girl?
Theodore Knutson @mixedknuts
@JoshJMTG @TheZvi huh... thought you'd be smarter. (sorry, couldn't resist)
Pip griffiths @PhdPip
@TheZvi my landlords a professor at Harvard, tho she's back here in Bath atm. She researches gender and education. Why a girl and not a boy?
Joshua J. @JoshJMTG
@mixedknuts @TheZvi Probably would have gotten accepted but no scholarship, couldn't afford it, so that factors in here too I think.
Joshua J. @JoshJMTG
@mixedknuts @TheZvi I literally got a *phone call* from Harvard asking me to apply while I was in high school. (I did not.)
Owen Landgren @olandgren
@TheZvi 0.04% chance. ~2000 new Harvard students enrolled annually, ~5.2M new college students in the US each year.
Theodore Knutson @mixedknuts
@Azcz @TheZvi it's not a random population of smart people, it's a random pop of 12yo kids
Theodore Knutson @mixedknuts
@Azcz @TheZvi Most people who want to get in to Harvard work their asses off+smart. What percent of _applicants_ does Harvard accept?
Ari Lax @armlx
@meddlingmage @TheZvi I think there's a very high end on what can be done given 100% devotion of time.
Kenyon Colloran @Azcz
@mixedknuts @TheZvi Really? I'd guess it's a good deal higher than that. Hardwork gets you a fair bit of the way into the door.
Chris Pikula @meddlingmage
@armlx @thezvi wtf 35%?!?!
Paul Rietzl @paulrietzl
@TheZvi a truly "random" kid? very very low. i'd guess 8-10%
Ari Lax @armlx
@TheZvi My guess is probably 35%, but then again depends a lot on starting conditions.
Mats Volberg @VolbergOnNohik
@TheZvi does he get extra resources for this preparation?
brian benns @spence0016
@TheZvi 2%? It has to be low
Kyle Ryc @KyleRyc
@TheZvi 1 in 1000 if they aren't gifted or rich.
Joshua J. @JoshJMTG
@TheZvi What percentage of US 12-year-olds can claim Harvard legacy status? That, plus 1%.
GiantSquidOverdrive @GiSqOd
@TheZvi Almost certain. Plenty of time to become smart, get good test scores, and develop talent(s). Kid’s devotion is the prime requisite.
Lee Sharpe @Leebertarian
@TheZvi I feel like how high your answer is proportional to how much you favor the use use of markets to in public policy. :)
Fakey Fakeson @admittedlyhuman
@TheZvi I doubt the capacity of a randomly selected 12yo American to "try for real" over the course of five years
Joe Miller @spuuky_
@TheZvi Really, truly tries? I'm not sure of the percent, but much higher than whatever most people predict.
Erek @melink14
@TheZvi 80-90%
Theodore Knutson @mixedknuts
@TheZvi Jesus, I read your replies and now I'm afraid to answer. My guess is 1/10 of 1% with variance out to 1%
Mark Young @mm_young
@TheZvi I would guess 10%. I knew kids who were rich and trying for at least that long who got wait-listed.
Kenneth Fortson @kenfortson
@TheZvi 18%. Most don't have the baseline smarts to make it even with substantial effort.
Misha Gurevich @drethelin
@TheZvi epsilon
Josh Milliken @joshuamilliken
@TheZvi depends on how smart he actually is, and how much publicity Harvard could get out of it.
Jacob Marek @anonymosnuke
@TheZvi Depends on socioeconomic status and other things. Blind shot on caucasian male from middle class, about 10%
Josh R @therealdesh
@TheZvi Quite similar to chances you pick someone with certain socioeconomic backgrounds. Effort just won't matter for many.
Sean McClay @seanmcclay
@TheZvi race/socioeconomic status/gender/location/family at the school?
Black Spartacus @browndr
@TheZvi around 32%, maybe
[Summary]There were answers of 0.1% that thought sure, maybe it’s 1%, then there were a bunch of people at 75%+, even one at 90%, plus a few who think that the meaning of try is too ambiguous in context to answer the question.
It’s great fun when the range of answers is so wide, and both sides stick to their guns with high confidence.
It might also be telling me to stick to Twitter. Hard to say.