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american politics is the best reality show, diane duane, god bothering, history side of tumblr, lingua latina, ozy blog post, rape tw, rationality, science side of tumblr, sex work, there is no justice and there is no judge
Eros and Thanatos: A pair of philosophical dialogues about love and sex, starring a family of Roman reconstructionist pagans. If this sounds like your sort of thing, it probably is. In the first, Catullus (a closeted gay man who believes that Love Conquers All) debates homosexuality with Germanicus (a Stoic who believes sex is only for procreation), Lydia (a Catholic), Sheila (a basically normal person), Ali (a postmodernist feminist) and Juvenal (the sort of edgelord who goes about saying that everything is violence and power). In the second, Juvenal, Germanicus, and Catullus debate whether murder is ever morally acceptable, along with Caligula (an atheist) and Brutus (a Buddhist).
Motel of the Mysteries: From the Body Ritual Among The Nacirema school of parody, the premise is that two thousand years from now an archaeologist finds a buried motel and concludes that this was a place of sacred mysteries. The book discusses The Great Altar (a television), the ceremonial burial cap (a shower cap), and the sacred collar (a toilet seat). Funny and pointed.
Sexual Authenticity: An Intimate Reflection on Homosexuality and Catholicism: This is a very frustrating book. I thought I would really enjoy it because I love her blog– even when I disagree she’s always insightful– but this book occasionally veered towards something I agree with and then felt like it came from Cloudcuckooland. People who have casual sex are all sex addicts! You can tell, because they deny that they’re sex addicts, and addicts always deny their addiction. Obviously. Nevertheless, Selmys’s conversion story is really interesting. She gets catechized early on by a Druid.
Sexual Authenticity: More Reflections: I find this book much less frustrating than the former book, and even agree with it in some places.
Selmys uses the Roman emperors as a framing to talk about the etiology of homosexuality. Of the first fifteen Roman emperors, only one was completely heterosexual. Even assuming that some were slandered by their detractors, at least half the emperors had some level of same-sex attraction. This seems strange from a perspective in which only three percent of the population is LGB, and startling even if you assume Roman emperors carried the gay gene, since many early Emperors were not related. She uses it as a framework to talk about different causes of homosexuality: for instance, Julius Caesar might have been an opportunistic bisexual, Tiberius a sex addict, Caligula a sexual assault victim, Nero a very feminine man forced into an ultra-masculine role in an ultra-masculine society by an overbearing mother, Hadrian a normal well-balanced person who happened to be in love with a man, Elegabalus a trans woman. Even given the many similarities between Roman emperors, there’s a lot of diversity in sexual behavior and motivation and what it means to call someone gay or bisexual.
Selmys’s observations on ex-gays seem to match up with my own observations of bihacking. Some people experience a sudden change in sexuality, but it’s not common and there’s no way to cause it; most people can, with a lot of hard work, transform themselves from Kinsey 0s and 6s to Kinsey 1s and 5s, but this does not actually offer a realistic hope of a relationship. Selmys claims that sudden orientation shifts are often caused by falling in love, which isn’t true in my experience, and I am curious what the difference is.
Selmys had a really interesting perspective on how having a lot of kids affects the experience of a parent of a disabled child. If you have one kid, all your hopes and dreams are on that kid. When your child is diagnosed with a disability, you have to grieve all the experiences you won’t have: if your child uses a wheelchair, it’s going to be a lot harder for them to play football; if your child is intellectually disabled, it’s harder to share the pleasures of science with them. But if you have more than one kid, then you can still have those experiences with your other kids, and it’s easier to recognize how good your disabled child is as themselves. I am not sure if I agree, but I think it’s interesting to think about.
Interim Errantry: Three Tales of the Young Wizards: An excellent three-novella collection. It’s nice to get a little breather and see what Kit and Nita are up to when they aren’t saving Earth. Interim Errantry is as weird as any other Young Wizards book: my attempts to explain the plots to Topher involved a lot of “Jack O’Lanterns are apparently sapient”, “and then the tree alien decides to become a Christmas tree”, and “and then through a series of misunderstandings an alien concludes that Nita and Kit are going to engage in the Impregnation Ritual on Valentine’s Day and the prelude to this involves eating one candy heart each day.”
Science fantasy is a genre close to my heart. I love urban fantasy that takes full advantage of the fact that it takes place in our reality and therefore has moons and aliens.
Also, I’m not sure if this is just me, but there were definitely more references to boners and porn than I’m used to in the Young Wizards series. The freedom of self-publishing? Changing standards in YA books?
Borderline (The Arcadia Project Book 1): The fey exist. All genius artwork comes from collaborations between humans and their fey soulmates, called “Echoes”. (The soulmate does not have to be a romantic soulmate.) The Arcadia Project, which employs solely crazy people, manages the fey/human interactions.
Our protagonist has borderline personality disorder and it’s amazing. Nothing I love more than a book about a borderline who totally has insight into the awful things she does and keeps doing them anyway. I liked how it realistically wrote her both as sympathetic and as kind of an awful person, but not as some kind of chaotic evil monster– just someone who has the same empathy and compassion as anyone else, but who sometimes does bad things on impulse. I really liked how the protagonist had recovered from suicidality but was still obviously mentally ill and had a life that sucked because, yeah, not being suicidal anymore doesn’t necessarily mean your life is great. And there was DBT in the book! The protagonist talks about her reason mind and her emotion mind, and one of the other characters is someone who literally severed her reason mind from her emotion mind with magic! I would have appreciated more use of skills, but then the protagonist is (canonically) not very cooperative with therapy. So I guess it makes sense.
Crucial Conversations: Tools for Talking When Stakes are High: Wow, it’s like the book Nonviolent Communication, but without the weird and creepy implication that if you do everything right then people will do what you want.
The key piece of advice is that you should focus on what you actually want and doing things that will achieve the goal you actually want, instead of giving into the temptation to instead achieve the goals “no one ever criticizes me” or “the person I’m talking to is punished” or “my sense of self-righteousness is justified” or similar. Do not assume that it’s impossible to get a deal both sides will be okay with: this is often possible!
Before you can succeed at a crucial conversation, you have to separate out what’s actually going on from the story you’re telling yourself is going on about how you are an innocent victim, or the other person is a horrible monster, or you are completely incapable of improving the situation. Try looking at the objective facts of the situation and separating them from your interpretations of what’s going on. Ask yourself about your role in the problem, why a reasonable and rational person would do what the other person is doing, and what you should do to move towards what you want.
The first step in a crucial conversation is to notice when people feel unsafe. When people feel unsafe, they will usually turn to silence or violence: on one hand, selectively showing your true opinions, avoiding important issues, or even withdrawing from the conversation altogether; on the other hand, forcing your views on others, labeling and stereotyping people, or insulting and threatening people. When these happen, the conversation has gone off the rails. Even noticing unsafe conversations can be a huge step towards improving conversations, but you can also work on making it safer. You do that through: apologizing when appropriate; using a contrast statement which addresses others’ concerns that you don’t respect them or have a malicious intent and then clarifies your respectfulness and intent; and finding a mutual purpose, a goal both sides share. You do that through CRIB (this book is as fond of acronyms as DBT is): committing to find a mutual purpose; recognizing why the person you’re talking to wants the things they want; inventing a mutual purpose, perhaps by agreeing that everyone wants the relationship to be strong or the business to succeed; and brainstorming new strategies that serve everyone.
Once everyone is safe, you want to find out other people’s perspectives and share your own. To share your own perspectives, use STATE: share a factual description of the situation from your perspective; tell the story you’ve told yourself about those facts; and ask for the other person’s perspective. While doing this, talk tentatively, saying things softly and in a way that implies you want other people to correct you, and encourage other people to share their own views, no matter how controversial. To encourage other people to share their perspectives, use AMPP: ask to hear people’s concerns; mirror other people’s feelings; paraphrase what you’re hearing; and if they really won’t share their opinions with you at all, prime by saying tentatively what you think the other person’s perspective might be. If it turns out you and the other person disagree, start with an area of agreement; build on what the other person is saying by suggesting that they might have overlooked something; and compare positions, suggesting that you differ and not that one of you is wrong, when you really can’t reach consensus.
When it comes time to make the decision, you should follow an appropriate decision-making procedure: for instance, the boss has the final say in a corporation, but in most marriages decisions are made by consensus. When decisions are made, you should always be clear about who is responsible, what exactly they’re supposed to do, when they’re supposed to do it by, and what the followup will be.
The Myth of the Rational Voter: Voters are systematically biased: for instance, compared to the consensus of economists, they tend to underestimate the usefulness of markets and the economic benefits of trade with foreigners. Voters are wrong even about obvious empirical issues: for instance, voters tend to vastly overestimate the percentage of the budget devoted to foreign aid. Voters care about trivia about politicians (Dan Quayle’s feud with a television character) at the expense of practical issues (who is their senator); while voters swiftly punish transgressions they hear about, these transgressions are generally things like “said a racist slur” or “cheated on his dying wife” rather than things like “caused the incarceration of millions of people for relatively small crimes” or “destroyed the entire economy”. The worst part is that voters are altruistic, so instead of voting based on their pocketbooks (which, presumably, would incentivize politicians to have a good economy for most of their voters) they vote based on what they think is good for the country (which incentivizes politicians to give voters things the voters think are a good idea, whether it is or not). All this means that voters vote for and receive terrible policy.
Honestly, it’s kind of remarkable to me how democratic governments wind up with their current level of low-variance mediocrity. This happens every time I read something about society. Like, it’s really remarkable how well our society works given that every individual element of it is a constantly-falling-apart shitshow. I have no explanation for this state of affairs.
Weirdly, Caplan models the situation as “there are benefits to having biased opinions (less effort researching right opinions, signalling group membership, not having to admit you’re wrong), there are costs to having biased opinions (you are wrong about things and that hurts you), since any voter has an astronomically small chance of flipping the election it is rational for them to buy way more bias than they would for things affecting their personal life.” While I think that’s correct for some situations, other biases, such as the availability heuristic, clearly don’t seem to fit this model. Like, I really don’t think parents are hysterical about children playing outside because they’re obtaining a certain amount of signalling that they’re good parents at the cost of a certain amount of parenting effort, I think they’re legitimately just mistaken about the chance their children will be kidnapped. And I suspect similar arguments apply to voters as well.
Intelligence: A Very Short Introduction: I am impressed by the consistent high quality of the “very short introduction” series and wish I could subscribe to a program where they mail me a random one each month and then I get to learn about mathematics or nothingness or logic or something each month.
The most interesting thing I learned from this book is that some people, including Flynn himself, believe the Flynn effect is due to increased familiarity with standardized tests in general and intelligence tests in specific. For instance, in the 1930s, an IQ test was probably the first standardized test a person had ever taken, while I took about two standardized tests a year for twelve years while attending a school system which was widely criticized for primarily teaching me how to be good at taking tests. It’s no wonder that I’d have a higher IQ score. In this case, the Flynn effect means that changing IQ scores provide us little to no information about whether and how people’s IQ scores are changing over time.
The Rent Is Too Damn High: What To Do About It, And Why It Matters More Than You Think: This is a pretty good introduction to the YIMBY position on housing. Various regulations– including rent control and zoning– make it more difficult and less profitable to build more homes, so we have fewer homes than we need. The idea that homes are an “investment” which always increases in price also increases the price of housing for people who don’t own their own homes. As a result, people live further from work (leading to unpleasant commutes and lots of pollution) or move to cities with cheaper housing but fewer jobs. This is bad, because dense locations provide a lot of benefits to people– ranging from higher productivity to a cleaner environment to better restaurants.
With Liberty and Justice for Some: How The Law Is Used To Destroy Equality and Protect the Powerful: I originally thought I was a ooey-gooey soft-on-crime liberal, and then I read this book, and discovered I was an ooey-gooey soft-on-crime liberal except for crimes committed by presidents. When Glenn Greenwald remarked that under international law torture is punished with the death penalty, I thought “yep, actually, I totally support executing George W Bush.”
Unfortunately, my tough-on-crime stance is not shared by most people. In fact, under the name of “unifying the country” and “looking forward not backward”, presidents have managed to get away with absurd violations of national and international law: from Nixon’s multiple felonies to Bush’s surveillance and torture. Of course, this is not actually how the rule of law ought to work: the most basic principle of our government is that it is a government of laws not men, which is to say that if you commit a crime you should be punished, even if you are the president. (Especially if you are the president!) Claims that “public policy takes precedence over the rule of law”. Of course, there are many incentives for any given president to pull this shit: if they punish their predecessors for felonies and war crimes, maybe they’ll be punished for their own felonies and war crimes! All this is combined with a massive expansion of incarceration, meaning a poor black person gets more time in jail for smoking pot than a president does for violating international law.
Sex Workers Unite: A History of the Movement from Stonewall to SlutWalk: The real lesson of this book is that Margo St. James, the founder of COYOTE and the St. James Infirmary, is a stone-cold badass. Margo St. James became a sex worker after she was accused of doing sex work because she was a beatnik and hosted lots of different men in her apartment, and obviously the only reason one would have men stay over is doing sex work. Her conviction meant that she couldn’t find a job other than doing sex work. She founded COYOTE, one of the first sex workers’ rights organizations, a year after J Edgar Hoover died “because we wanted to make sure he was really dead”. COYOTE’s shenanigans included awarding a giant keyhole to the Vice Cop of the Year and holding loiter-ins at the Democratic and Republican National Conventions. Their largest victory was when Judge Marie-Victoire dismissed almost forty sex workers’ cases on the grounds of sex discrimination, since the police had not arrested the clients. (The assistant district attorney for vice crimes said there was no reason to arrest men because “the customer is not involved with the commercial exploitation of sex, at least not on an ongoing basis.”) St. James also climbed Pike’s Peak to prove that sex workers aren’t diseased. Today, he St. James Infirmary commits to doing research that sex workers feel matters to them: for instance, it performed the first medical research on the foot problems caused by working all night in hooker heels.
I also appreciated the following slogans from a protest of Playboy Bunny clubs which only paid their workers in tips, without any salary: “don’t be a bunny, work for money” and “women should be obscene and not heard.”
In 34 states, doing full service sex work while being HIV positive is a felony, regardless of whether transmission occurred or what the actual risk profile of the sex act is. No HIV-positive client has ever been prosecuted.
The unsung heroes of this book are public health workers and activists, many of whom regularly break laws to help their sex worker clients: from giving out clean needles and crack kits, breaking trafficking laws to help underage sex workers find shelter and necessities, giving out birth control and post-exposure prophylaxis for HIV without prescriptions, or letting people know when the police are a few blocks away.
[content warning: rape]
Bang: The advice in this book is mostly reasonable. The author, however, is a goddamn misogynist.
As an example: Roosh says that you should do things because you want to do them, not in a desperate attempt to please a particular woman. This is great advice; I agree that if you’re buying someone a drink, it should be because you like them and want them to be happy, not because you’re desperately seeking their approval. His next sentence says that if he buys women drinks, it’s not a form of supplication, it’s to loosen them up so they’ll fuck him.
This is merely one example of a larger problem. Roosh seems to view sex not as something that people do together because it’s fun but as a competition between men and women in which men try to obtain sex and women try to deny it. He views a woman saying no to sex as an ordinary, normal part of the process of having sex with her; his writing clearly seems to imply that he expects a woman to say “no” to sex three or four times the first time he has sex with her. It is nice that he does not suggest physically forcing a woman into sex. He does, however, suggest ignoring her nos (for instance, responding to “we’re going too fast” with “yeah, I agree” but continuing to do whatever you’re doing) and responding to an outright “no” by stopping for a few minutes and then doing the thing again.
Of course, perhaps some women are saying “no” in the hopes that Roosh will override her “no”. (As I’ve always said, I think such ridiculous behavior should be punished by those women not getting to have sex until they learn better.) And of course some people say no to sex and then change their mind and say yes, although early on in a relationship you should probably check in and see if they’re sure. But a lot of the women he’d be using that strategy on are people who are scared, inexperienced, unsure, not good at setting boundaries. They might be frightened that if they don’t comply he will hurt them; he’s given them no reason to think otherwise. It is scary to be alone and naked, often in a house that isn’t your own, with a person who is larger and stronger than you. Is this the sort of thing you’re comfortable doing with a sexual partner?
Even from a purely selfish level, I can’t imagine that this is a great way to obtain sex. Like… surely you want to have sex with someone who wants to have sex with you? What benefit does having sex with a reluctant person have over masturbation? They make very good Fleshlights these days, you know. And it certainly makes the rest of Roosh’s pickup advice questionable. If he’s so good at seducing women, how come he has to pressure people who don’t want sex with him into sex? Surely they should be throwing their dripping panties at his head?
I think a lot of pickup stuff can be really useful for shy men. It can be hard to think of something to say to strangers, so knowing basically what you’re going to say can make it easier to break the ice and come off as charming and fun. A lot of pickup stuff isn’t the Magic Secret To Obtaining Sex, it’s just a basically reasonable thing to say while flirting, and that can serve as a magic feather to build confidence so you actually hit on people. And by relying on other people’s lines for a while you can develop a sense of what works and what doesn’t and eventually learn to flirt without the lines. But there has got to be a book written by a man with less awful and disgusting views about sexuality.
[content warning: rape, suicide]
The Myth of Persecution: How Early Christians Invented A Story of Martyrdom: A depressing amount of this book is based on word games about the meaning of the word “persecution”. You see, it only counts as persecution if the government intended to oppress Christians. The actual state of affairs was that Christians were widely thought of as very strange and rumored to be incestuous and cannibals, were occasionally oppressed by local governors, and sometimes were executed because the Emperor passed a law that said that everyone had to sacrifice to him or be executed, intended to figure out who his political enemies were, but that accidentally harmed Christians. I found this sort of argument-by-definition extremely pedantic. I also found the tie-ins to current culture war stuff really annoying: I can figure out for myself the connections between Christian ideals of martyrdom and Rick Santorum’s idea that Christians are persecuted today, thank you.
That said, it’s still an interesting read for the historical facts. Many so-called martyrdom stories are, in fact, fiction: there are historical inaccuracies and lurid plotlines that make the most sense if they were popular novels intended to amuse the reader. Many bear a striking similarity to Greek romance novels popular at the time. They have plots like “a Christian who has taken a vow of celibacy is forced to marry a vestal virgin, whom he converts to Christianity; they are arrested for trying to convert people, where the vestal virgin is sentenced to work at a brothel; an escaped lion does not harm her but instead kills the men attempting to rape her.” This is salacious enough that it is probably fiction and not a thing that actually happened.
Voluntary martyrdom was apparently quite common in the early church. We have several early Christian writers condemning it as heresy and the sin of suicide; this was probably political, because the Christians we would today consider non-heretical often escaped or recanted their Christianity, and there was a group of heretics, the Donatists, who had confessed to being Christian but were not executed for one reason or another. The non-Donatists have an obvious reason to condemn voluntary martyrdom. One of the stories we have about early Christians is that they went to a regional governor to try to be martyred, except the governor refused and instead told them that if they wanted to die there were cliffs to throw themselves off and ropes to hang themselves on.
The Christians were really confusing to the Romans. Roman polytheism was syncretic; it literally did not make sense to them that worshipping one god meant not being allowed to worship the emperor either. Many Christians were deliberately stubborn and difficult: for instance, one Christian responded to all questions, including his name, with “I am a Christian.” Many Christians said they respected God alone, which was both incomprehensible and probably seditious from a Roman perspective, since Roman society was based on hierarchies of respect.
(1) Can someone explain to me why the usage of phrases like “reached out” and “shared” became common instead of “I got in contact with/phoned them up and asked them because my job as a report is to ask people questions” and “they told me/informed me/offered without being asked the following information” or just plain “Mary Smith said that she was taking a sexual harassment case against Joe Brown because he grabbed her breast while they were both taking the lift up to the fourth floor of the office”, not “Mary Smith shared that etc.”
Is this the effect of psycho-therapeutic culture that apparently Americans no longer talk to people, they “reach out” and “share”? I find the “reaching out” language particularly hilarious when it’s used in a news story about “As a journalist for Mainstream News Organisation, I reached out to Big Corp for comment on the story that they’re poisoning Indian villagers with their new overseas factory, and their PR firm shared with me that if we printed that, they’d sue the pants off us for libel”.
(2) Re: stories of the martyrs, yeah a lot of them have been – let’s say “embellished”, and not to put a tooth in it, made up wholesale. But the Romans were weird about virginity; being a pragmatic and practical people, if the gods disapproved of (say) executing a virgin, the Roman solution was not “Better not execute this senator’s virgin daughter who is collateral damage in the political plot against him”, it was “rape her first so she’s no longer a virgin, then the gods won’t be mad when we kill her”. So stories of sending women to brothels if they wouldn’t comply probably aren’t too far off the actuality; seeing as how the Romans thought it was fun to re-create mythological scenes in the arena when executing criminals, the story of Ss. Perpetua and Felicity having a wild cow set upon them probably was their version of re-enacting the myth of Dirce and seems perfectly credible.
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I don’t know why “reach out to” is now a normal way to say “get in contact with”, but it’s so very normal to me that none of your examples sound the least bit noteworthy.
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‘I can figure out for myself the connections between’
?
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Another bit where something seems to have gone missing: “Claims that ‘public policy takes precedence over the rule of law’.”
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Also, I am laughing at the Crucial Conversations book because I’m imagining trying to do that in a real-life setting:
“Wait a minute, are we CRIBbing, STATEing or AMPPing here?”
“Hang on, I thought I was CRIBbing, which one are you doing?”
“Um, what’s the one where you talk softly?”
“Get the book, I can’t remember which acronym that was”
“Okay – ah yeah, here it is on page sixty-seven!”
“Great – uh, what was it we were discussing in the first place?”
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I’m autistic, I like it when books lay out social interaction for me with lots of acronyms so I will remember.
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Personal preference thing I guess, I prefer them not to use acronyms because I 1) aesthetically object to the thing where you compromise on using the best wording to describe a thing because you’re trying to turn it into a pronounceable acronym 2) will entirely forget what it’s supposed to stand for anyway.
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> Honestly, it’s kind of remarkable to me how democratic governments wind up with their current level of low-variance mediocrity. This happens every time I read something about society. Like, it’s really remarkable how well our society works given that every individual element of it is a constantly-falling-apart shitshow. I have no explanation for this state of affairs.
I’m out of the software industry now, thanks the gods. But my 15-year stint as a programmer and sysadmin left me amazed at how software infrastructure and the Internet, like, still work at all.
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Yup, that might be somewhat related to Gell-Mann-Amnesia. In your own field, you know all the things that are broken and basically held together by duct tape and hope, and forget that everything else probably looks the same, but nobody lets you get close enough to tell. Except politics, occasionally, when a journalist happens to do their job.
The programming thing reminds me of a piece of satire that’s way too true for comfort:
http://www.stilldrinking.org/programming-sucks
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>In 34 states, doing full service sex work while being HIV positive is a felony, regardless of whether transmission occurred or what the actual risk profile of the sex act is.
And…you don’t agree with that? Why? I don’t think being HIV+ makes you a bad person or anything, but it does mean you should not be a sex worker.
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I can think of many situations where it would be acceptable, for instance: you only do handjobs and give people oral sex, you only have sex with HIV-positive clients, you disclose ahead of time, or you have an undetectable viral load. It also seems to me that if getting tested for HIV means you’re committing a felony while working the only job you’re currently capable of working, this is a big incentive against being tested for HIV, which is… not what we want?
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Plus:
1) it’s hypocritical for this to be a requirement for sex work given that the exchange of money doesn’t have an effect on the transmission rate
2) a libertarian would say the customer should be able to determine their own risk tolerance
3) given how many people don’t know their HIV status, clients (and anyone else doing sex things with people they don’t know well) should assume HIV+ status is a possibility and risk-manage accordingly.
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For me it seems of a piece of DUI being based on BAC. Purportedly, the problem with driving drunk is that it increases the risk of harm to others, but the crime is defined by a testable (if completely arbitrary) standard instead of any risky behavior. Lawheads gonna law.
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“Ali (a postmodernist feminist) and Juvenal (the sort of edgelord who goes about saying that everything is violence and power)”
Wait, so those are different viewpoints here? 😉
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I think most people here will have heard the joke about the “sociopath test” where you meet a girl at your dad’s funeral but don’t get her name, and have to figure out how to find her. The “sociopath” answers that you might be able to find her by killing your mom, since she might show up at that funeral too. A non-sociopath would never think of that. They wouldn’t consider the idea and then reject it, it would simply never occur to them as an option.
NIMBYism is my version of the sociopath test. Left to my own mental devices, it would never even occur to me to try to increase the value of my home by lobbying for legislation to make it harder for other people to build homes. It doesn’t even occur to me that that’s something I can do. I’m entitled to my property, not the value of it. Why do people act like “destroying property values” is a bad thing? Generally when valuable things become cheaper that’s a good thing, not a bad thing.
Why do people even care about the value of their homes that much? How frequently do people move that they need to always be on the lookout to make sure they can get a good deal for their home? I suppose that maybe they could get a bigger mortgage with a more valuable home, but who needs that big a mortgage?
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I’m quite confused right now. On this blog, everyone seems to believe that YIMBY will lead to cheaper housing, and that NIMBY, which leads to high rents, can only be explained as some sort of inscrutable sociopathy. But on this blog it’s YIMBY which leads to high rents and doesn’t make sense except as a deliberate attempt to hurt others.
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Sorry, incomplete link. I meant to post this → http://andrewgelman.com/2017/05/14/whats-deal-yimbys/
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I think it is a mistake to conclude from “one person on the blog says this” to “everyone agrees.” For instance, I don’t agree that NIMBYism is inscrutable sociopathy; I think it is a very reasonable preference to live in a place full of single-family homes combined with a very reasonable preference to live in the San Francisco Bay Area, combined with people’s tendency to rationalize away sacrificing their own interests to help others.
That said, does the author of this post really believe that if I waved a magic wand and eliminated six hundred thousand units of housing from Manhattan, the price of living in Manhattan would stay the same?
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@ozzy: Properly, he doesn’t discuss what happens when housing is removed. I think what he’s saying is that, if you gave your wand to property developers, they’d promptly create 600k apartments and definitely price them every bit as expensively as they are right now, because it’s guaranteed that 600k families of rich people will move in. These 600k families would need a lot of people to serve them, but these non-rich workers can’t afford the so-called “market rate” rents, so they’ll have to settle for commuting from the outskirts. This raises demand in the outskirts, where the rent isn’t so artificially inflated, so the poorest layer of the outskirts now cannot afford rent and has to move further outskit-er—but they still have to commute to Manhattan where the jobs are.
So if you add more buildings you end up getting higher rents, more gentrification, more suburbs and worse commuting.
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That seems to assume that the supply of rich people is infinite. I find that assumption implausible.
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Infinite is certainly impossible, but large enough to supply practical urban densities is plausible. The original author concedes that at some point the prices would go down, but that’s the reason why he cited Manhattan in the first place; it’s already super-high-density and so far we see no cheap rent. So if you build and build on your backyard until it’s as dense as Manhattan, you still wouldn’t see fall in prices in your high-rent city (you’d see a fall in prices in the remote suburbs, but that’s exactly the problem).
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We are definitely seeing cheaper rent than we would if Manhattan were not so dense. Unless you think that the correct way to solve housing problems in New York City is to bulldoze all the skyscrapers and replace them with single-family homes in order to get that cheap rent?
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@ozzy: We seem to be talking about different things, which is compounded by the fact that I’m talking by proxy. I”m really trying to understand two contradictory positions, which we may call YIMBY and anti-YIMBY, because I’m amused by the fact that both charge one another of raising the already outrageous, ridiculously high rents; and, more generally, I’m amused by the market’s never-ending capacity to settle precisely on what everyone in the community doesn’t want; but, in trying to bounce ideas, I find myself arguing for the anti-YIMBY side here, when I have no particular investment on either. (I’m 100% sure the apartments will be every bit as unreachable as they already are for someone in my class, indeed in my corner of the world, no matter whether they build more or not.) As far as what the other guy is saying in the statistics blog, he’s not talking about what would happen if it had not, but what will happen when—specifically, that increasing density will not lower rents. Having lived in São Paulo and seen my share of property developments in nice neighborhoods, I’m inclined to agree in this point; more fancy buildings for the higher classes will result in precisely zilch reasonable rents within the premium areas; on the contrary, they’ll only get ever premium-er (you will see a bigger crop of
favelasaffordable housing, but only at an appropriate distance. Wouldn’t want your brand-new market-rate investment in a high-value zone to lose value by proximity with some cheapo condo!)That the other guy thinks that “increasing density will not lower rents” does not imply he believes “decreasing density will lower rents”. He’s pointing that building yet more “market” rate apartments isn’t a solution; he’s not proposing an alternative solution:
As for my proposed solution (as opposed to the other blogger’s), of course I don’t want to bulldoze the skyscrapers! That would be way too drastic and unrealistic! I’m in favor of a reasonable, moderate, rational solution, like appropriating all of them for the working classes, preferably with the means of production while you’re at it, and forever forbidding the pigs from owning half the world on paper and gorging on literal rent-seeking behavior.
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Phil’s argument makes no sense even if we grant him large parts of it.
That is to say, Phil argues:
1. Building new housing will not affect pricing of existing housing;
2. Therefore, building new housing that’s more expensive than existing housing will therefore increase (or at least, not decrease) the median rent;
3. Therefore, building new housing makes housing less available/affordable.
Obviously, many people would dispute claim #1 — but let’s say we grant him that. Claim #2 then immediately follows. But claim #3 is in error! Phil has made the mistake of using a proxy that doesn’t actually measure what’s relevant here. The fact that the median rent has gone up does *not* mean that housing is less affordable.
Consider — if you’re trying to rent an apartment, what’s relevant is not the median rent; what’s relevant is the rent of your particular apartment. Building new housing, under Phil’s assumptions, does not raise the rent of any particular apartment; it just makes new apartments available. Let’s say you are trying to rent an apartment, there are 10,000 of them, they all cost $500/month and are all full. Then someone builds 20,000 new apartments that cost $1000/month. Even if prices of existing apartments stay exactly the same, you now potentially have the ability to get an apartment (depending on your willingness to pay) where you did not before. Sure, the median price has doubled — but the median price just doesn’t play any role in your decision making or the outcomes. It’s irrelevant.
Indeed we can go further: Suppose we make the additional assumption that these higher-priced apartments are somehow better in quality than the lower-priced ones. Likely then once they are built, there will be a number of people moving from the lower-priced ones to the higher-priced ones, because they want the higher quality they weren’t able to get before. So now the lower-priced ones aren’t all full and you can get one, assuming you’re willing to pay! So you’d still only pay $500/month! Sure, the median rent has doubled, but once again that just isn’t relevant to any step here.
Now, I’ve seen people argue that building new housing actually causes prices of existing housing to *increase*, which could indeed potentially be pretty bad — but Phil isn’t arguing that. He’s arguing that existing prices will stay the same and that the *median* will increase — and that just has no relevance to the question.
Remember: Know what the statistics you use actually do! This is the sort of mistake you make when you just throw around summary numbers without checking whether they actually bear on the question under consideration.
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(Note by the way that it’s possible in my scenario above that *nobody* is willing to pay for the new apartments. But that doesn’t mean anyone is paying *more*; it doesn’t make things *worse*. If you think of building 20,000 $1000/month apartments as lowering the rent on 20,000 apartments to $1000/month from $infinity/month, it should be obvious why this can’t make housing less affordable… unless, of course, it causes rent on existing apartments to go up, but that’s not the argument that Phil made.)
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@Ghatanathoah
I think that it is very uncharitable and absurd to equate NIMBYism merely to a desire to increase property values, as if property values weren’t generally causally related to how pleasant it is to live somewhere. The ‘other people’s preferences don’t count’ mindset that you display is in itself a rather sociopathic position.
In 2015 around 26% of homeowners in my country had a mortgage loan that was higher than the value of their property. Around 30% of this group had ambitions to move (and people don’t always have a choice, like if their live-in partner wants to divorce/separate).
Nominal GNP was 752 billion dollars in 2015, while the total mortgage debt was 696 billion dollars. So there are places where property values and huge mortgages are a pretty big deal, both from a macro and micro perspective.
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I think it’s a mistake to prioritise the rights of existing house owners over absolutely everything else, but I also think it’s a mistake to think they should have *no* rights.
If I large part of the value of living somewhere is the transport links, or the view, or “not having combined 24h sewage/blasting plant next door”, forcing people to gamble whether that will be yanked away is not very efficient– it leads to people hedging, being reluctant to buy houses. You have to accept *some* risk, but assuming people absorb ALL the risk of having their new house be screwed over later has various downsides.
But that often goes too far.
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@Jack V
I get why someone would want to avoid having a sewage plant or something similar that makes their home less pleasant to live in built nearby. But if they’re concerned about that they should say that, instead of asserting a right to be able to sell their home for the same or greater price forever. I don’t see how that’s any different from the stockholders of a company claiming they have a right to ban people from starting competing businesses because it decreases stock value. Or a plumber asserting that they have a right to stop other people from becoming plumbers because it decreases the amount plumbers might get paid. (I know that corporations and trade associations lobby for all kinds of regulations to that effect, but they at least pretend that the regulations are about consumer protection. Homeowners are one of the only groups brazen enough to say what they’re really about)
And a lot of current NIMBYism isn’t about stuff that’s literally in their back yard. It’s about development that’s miles away, but that indirectly affects them by decreasing the value of your home. And it doesn’t decrease the value because of pollution, eyesores, or noise, it does it by giving homebuyers other place to buy homes.
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@Jack V: I don’t get this claim about efficiency. How is it inefficient for the people buying a house to price in the risk of losing the view or having a sewage plant next door or losing transport links? You already manage a lot of risks – eg “this house has an upper floor, what’s the risk someone will break a leg and fail to take the stairs? This house is subject to bushfires, that house to landslides, this house has a great view but is far away from the train line.”
If keeping the view is that important to you, get together with your neighbours and buy that land and agree to never build on it.
I mean, what’s the alternative? The higher house prices are the higher other risks are. What if your partner becomes abusive (say after a brain injury) and you can’t afford to move out? What if that transport link becomes congested from people commuting longer and longer distances so it may as well be useless? And seriously, do you want untreated sewage around?
The other side is that lower house prices lower the risks of a decision. If your home only cost you a year’s salary, and you have to walk away from it because the combined sewage/blast furnace opened up next door that’s a whole different situation to if it costed five years salary. Particularly as the smaller amount you borrow relative to your income the quicker you can pay it back , so the less time you’re at risk of being in negative equity.
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“Honestly, it’s kind of remarkable to me how democratic governments wind up with their current level of low-variance mediocrity. This happens every time I read something about society. Like, it’s really remarkable how well our society works given that every individual element of it is a constantly-falling-apart shitshow. I have no explanation for this state of affairs.”
My take on this is that democracy is not really about chosing the best leaders/policies. It’s merely about having a stable and consensual succession process for the leaders, so that your country doesn’t fall into civil war every time there’s the tiniest problem with the succession.
It also prevents the ruling classes of different countries to be too incestuous with each other, so that if a serious succession dispute does break out, it is much less likely to turn into a world war (this happened twice in the 18th century).
The resulting long term stability leads to higher confidence society, to higher rule of law, to quicker improvement in economy, science, technology, life conditions, and so on. And this is enough to offset the generally useless and often detrimental laws voted by the politicians chosen in this process.
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“The Christians were really confusing to the Romans. Roman polytheism was syncretic; it literally did not make sense to them that worshipping one god meant not being allowed to worship the emperor either.”
The Jewish population in the empire was pretty large – lots of converts – and the Romans didn’t have much trouble understanding their monotheism. What was troubling about Christianity was that it spread even faster, very easily in fact among non-Jews even though the original community was almost all Jewish. That was troubling enough – the Romans – thought all these Eastern religions were effete and fanatical and unmanly – but what was even worse was that elite members of society like Laurence, the one who reportedly was grilled to death, started converting. This threatened the fiber of society.
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They may have been able to understand ethnoreligions but not religions of conversion? Islam and Christianity are unusual. (Judaism is also unusual in terms of being an ethnoreligion with a conversion method beyond total acculturation).
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“I am impressed by the consistent high quality of the “very short introduction” series and wish I could subscribe to a program where they mail me a random one each month and then I get to learn about mathematics or nothingness or logic or something each month.”
You couldn’t just buy one every month on Amazon?
Or, if that doesn’t work for whatever reason, ask someone close to you to buy a dozen of them and give them to you once a month?
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Ozy, I’d say you and Caplan both probably have useful pieces of the voter bias problem. It’s true that people don’t seem very rational about extremely small probabilities (your parent example), but it’s also true that people seem to use their beliefs as expression in cases where they don’t matter.
A lot of people who say Bush knew about 9/11 or Obama was born in Kenya would change their mind if they had to bet a mortgage payment on the true state of affairs, but since they don’t, they seem to honestly believe the more pleasant state of affairs.
I think Trump (and to a lesser extent, Obama’s) free pass on breaking his campaign promises is instructive in this regard. Many of his voters honestly believed during the campaign that (1) he would have Hillary investigated and imprisoned and (2) that was important, but they don’t particularly care when he announced that he wasn’t going to try. Why? Because ultimately, they wanted their side to win and the other side to lose, and the beliefs around that were pleasant but not actually important.
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Do you think The Rent Is Too Damn High is worth reading for a European, who is primarily interested in either European cities or generally-applicable ideas? I find a lot of US liberal urbanism becomes ‘be more like Amsterdam’, which is not so useful when your cities already have lots of what they’re calling for.
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I have not read the Greenwald book, so I don’t know if he addresses this, but there is something a dilemma for democracies. If you set a precedent of prosecuting a former leader for crimes committed in office, you might deter future leaders from committing crimes. But you also change the incentive structure for peaceably relinquishing power for any future leader who might conceivably be accused of crimes. Notice that in a lot of autocracies, one of the big things that seems to keep the dictator from leaving even when things are getting ugly is fear of accountability.
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Seconded.
Also, there’s a big problem with punishing politicians for crimes iff they actually committed them. Letting leaders escape without punishment is probably the best option, simply because it makes politics be about something other than whether Those Bastards martyred Our Heroic President.
Most voters don’t want to believe that they voted for a terrible criminal. It would mean admitting that they made a poor choice and that their team wasn’t The Good Guys. Also, other politicians don’t want to admit the sins of their leaders because voters vote for the side they feel good about, not the side with good policies, so being honest damages their legislative agenda and their chances of reelection. And the journalists and other news distributors don’t want to say bad things about their favoured side because it doesn’t sell.
You also have a lot of people on the other side who have beliefs as attire, or who don’t understand the cock-up theory of human affairs, or who are willing to tell any outrageous lie if it will improve turnout or move the swing voters or sell newspapers.
And the big factor everyone always forgets: despite how ridiculously politicised everything is, most people aren’t very engaged with politics. They don’t know the issues, they don’t know the positions, they don’t know the candidates’ histories… (See footnote.)
When most voters aren’t paying much attention, get their information from biased sources and are largely uninterested in the facts, it’s very hard to get everyone to agree that a leader is guilty of a crime, and it’s very hard to pick out the truly guilty from the witch-hunts. (“Lock her up!”)
So I say again: in this situation, it’s probably better to let leaders escape without punishment, simply because it makes politics be about something other than whether Those Bastards martyred Our Heroic President. Democracy isn’t about good policies, it’s about peaceful transfers of power, and punishing leaders is very bad for the legitimacy of the successor regime.
Footnote:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_by_popular_vote_margin
As an example of how important low interest is, I used the figures from the link above (for the 10th through 58th elections) to work out how many elections would *not* have been won by the runner-up if they got full turn-out from their supporters. I assumed that candidate’s vote shares represent their support amongst all eligible voters and that both sides had the same turnout rate.
The answer? Three. Buchanan (1856), Lincoln (1860) and FDR (1936) would all have won even with perfect turn-out from the runner-up. 31 out of the 48 elections would have been won by a wider margin than the true winner achieved, including every election since Reagan (1984).
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> I think such ridiculous behavior should be punished by those women not getting to have sex until they learn better
To be fair, pickup artist types often advocate exactly that. If you get a no, stop, start putting your pants on, be prepared to leave, but expect her to eventually protest and stop you from leaving.
I am all for better courtship norms, but most people don’t work that way, at least, yet. When having sexual relations with these people, you have to work within the existing system, so to speak. I also have doubts that affirmative consent will ever be widespread. I suspect a partner’s demonstration of the skill of knowing when they have consent might be too important a factor in people’s attraction to each other.
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Interesting how closely your opinion on PUA aligns with mine: Mostly useful advice given by horrible people, and often true for completely different reasons than stated. Sadly, they seem to be the only ones in this mess who focus on getting results, and actually bother to test the advice they give.
What most limits their usefulness to me is that their metric for success is a bit skewed. Getting the most sex is not what I (or most people, I think) optimize for, it’s just easier to measure and allows for quicker iteration of tests than, say, the goal of having a happy and stable long-term relationship.
From my perspective, they’re still searching for their keys under the streetlight – but in a world where most other people just claim that the keys must be somewhere without even looking at the floor, that’s already a huge step ahead.
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