Dear crystal ball: what will 2017 bring?
We have left behind a turbulent year full of unexpected events and terrible predictions. The year to come will be equally uncertain. What will happen in 2017? I decided to make some predictions. On January 2, 2018, I will score these predictions and see how well I did.
Do you have predictions of your own? Please make your own list and share! If you’re curious about other prediction experiments, check out Slate Star Codex (my inspiration for this post) and John Battelle’s technology focused blog. Also check out 2016 predictions by me and two of my friends, along with an evaluation of how well we did.
1. A far right party will win either a Parliamentary plurality or a presidency in at least one European country (70%)
2. No new fundamental physics is discovered and accepted as such by scientific consensus. Examples of fundamental physics include: detection of dark matter particles, unexplainable anomalies at the LHC, evidence of inflation from the CMB, proton decay, supersymmetry, faster than light communication. (80%)
3. At least 15,000 people will die from terrorism worldwide (80%)
4. At least 100 people will die in terrorist attacks in the Western world (which includes Europe, US, Canada, Australia, but not Turkey) (70%)
5. In Canada, no significant progress on electoral reform — no referendum, announcement of referendum, or government bill (80%)
6. Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will launch successfully and be mostly functional (80%)
7. UK will invoke Article 50 and begin leaving the EU (80%)
8. EM Drive will not be shown to work (99%)
9. Obamacare will be substantially modified (70%)
10. Obamacare will not be repealed without being replaced (80%)
11. DAPA will not go into effect (90%)
12. DACA will be repealed (80%)
13. The Fed will hike rates fewer than 3 times, contrary to its own guidance (60%)
14. The Fed interest rate will be 0.5–1.5% at year’s end (85%)
15. Canada GDP growth (defined as Q3 GDP divided by previous Q3 GDP) is higher in 2017 than in 2016 (60%)
16. S&P 500 will have positive annual return in 2016 (80%)
17. American race relations as perceived by both blacks and whites will improve, as measured by Gallup (60%)
18. US will pursue more expansionary fiscal policy, increasing the deficit in 2017 (in real dollar terms) above 2016 levels (70%)
19. The Trans Pacific Partnership agreement will not come into effect (90%)
20. Polio will come closer to eradication, but without being eradicated (70%)
21. Trump will successfully fill the empty Supreme Court seat with a conservative (70%)