1. Profile of Clayton Christensen.
2. Is Roger Federer more loss averse than Serena Williams?
3. Venice (Italy) bans kebab shops.
4. “Russian website shows unsecured video streams from across Canada.”
5. New and even more shocking results on income stagnation.: “…economists should search for explanations for households’ current financial woes in the youth and childhood of today’s workers. “We are maybe looking at the wrong place for the solution to stagnation in wages and rising inequalities,” Guvenen said. “To understand higher inequality, we should turn and take a closer look at youth.””
6. Fewer than one in one thousand teachers in Colorado is “ineffective” — what a state!
7. With proper calibration, the Comey effect is much smaller than you might think (NYT).
5. Matter of time until they find similar results to the ROI of going to college.
That highlights the problem with this “take a closer look at youth” thing.
It probably isn’t the workers, or any lack of education, it’s the jobs.
No, it’s the cost cutting.
Since the inflection point they suggest, circa 1970 or so, conservatives have been teaching everyone that you put more money in your pockets by cutting costs than by earning more money, increasing (labor) costs.
I learned in civics in the 50s and 60s in the subsection about how the nation produces what we the people need, vs those dirty commies, that my cost was your income, and my income was your cost, and thus we had a common interest is our costs rising together, and that’s what markets do. Ie, you can’t charge me more for food without me demanding higher wages, organizing fellow workers to go on strike, or going to a higher wage employer.
But then conservative economists convinced people to never see cost as someone’s income, and if anyone thought it was someone’s income, it would never be their own.
Further, these economists convinced businesses that their customers were not workers, so cutting labor costs would purely increase profits which would motivate selling more, and cutting labor costs would never decrease consumer spending.
So, when fewer 21 year olds have fewer driver licenses and even fewer cars, the reason is they are spending all their time playing games or going places with Uber. It can’t possibly be the result of cutting costs by not hiking the gas tax to increase the costs of transportation infrastructure with the crushing burden of a million more kids standing around with flags or shovels at road construction projects, causing scarcity of workers at fast food, causing fast food wages to rise, causing burger and pizza prices to rise. And what would high school kids earning $10 an hour, instead of playing games because college drop outs are doing the job for $8, do with the money? Maybe get a drivers license, pay the insurance and gas for the old family car, and letting dad justify buying a new car to drive to work to his wife.
Milton Friedman argued, circa 1970, that government policy in the 60s was promoting too much work and too high wages which caused too much consumption which required too much costly investment in production assets, paying too many workers,…
In his views, the nation needed to cut costs to keep wages and incomes down so demand would fall keeping consumer prices down.
His lesson has been learned.
Young people today cost society less by consuming less and earning less. It’s all the circle of life, of money.
Of course. The answer to our failing economy is paying $300 for a cheeseburger.
I’d rather believe that increasing productivity would increase incomes while *reducing* costs.
I think we talked about this at MR. One of the past links was about superstar firms increasing their productivity (including by automation and outsourcing). But the zinger was that median productivity could lag even so, because the median worker is not at a superstar firm.
When everyone uses a hand full of firms for most discretionary spending, where does everyone else work?
>When everyone uses a hand full of firms for most discretionary spending, where does everyone else work?
A few firms become gigantic and people work at those firms or in the supply chains for those firms.
Isn’t the trend for superstar (nominally) US firms to employ very few (in the US)?
The old Apple vs GM comparison.
It doesn’t take 30 hours to make a cheeseburger.
It doesn’t take 20 hours to make a cheeseburger.
It doesn’t take 10 hours to make a cheeseburger.
It doesn’t take 5 hours to make a cheeseburger.
It doesn’t take 1 hour to make a cheeseburger.
If the minimum wage were to double to $20 an hour, a cheeseburger would increase by perhaps 50c a unit, or maybe $1 in a less industrialized kitchen.
Pro tip: the world is not linear, and therefore the stupidity of increasing minimum wages to $300 an hour does not constitute any sort of counterargument against proposals to increase it to $12 or $15.
“To understand higher inequality, we should turn and take a closer look at youth.”
As Swift famously pointed out, the youth of a country is an important resource and should not be wasted.
8. Why do we need to defile everything? Please stop.
+1
8. This is going to be awful, isn’t it? Hollywood does not deserve the amazing visual art talent that it squanders.
+1
6. Not at all a surprise to me. Who did these eduformers think they were putting in charge of the evaluations? Most of this is just giving more power to the school administrators, who in terms of doing actual work make the teachers look Herculean in comparison.
#6: “The .09 percent ineffective number is a little more complicated than it seems at first glance. Because of how districts report all ratings to the state, explained Bivens, the numbers only include teachers who remain the following school year. Left out are those who leave the district voluntarily or are fired. If more low-performing teachers are among those departing, which seems likely, this would understate the true proportion of educators rated ineffective.”
The 0.09% is not about the teachers fired for being “ineffective”, it’s something else. The whole piece is dishonest by hiding this key information until the end.
Next, you’ll be telling us all of the children are not really above average.
5. Increasing inequality results from a combination of those at the upper end of the income scale capturing a greater percentage of total income and those at the upper end of the income scale capturing a greater percentage of overall increases in total income. It’s no secret that corporate America has been paying a higher percentage of total compensation to those in upper management, and a higher percentage of increases in compensation to those in upper management. I suppose one could argue that this phenomenon is attributable to youth, to their lack of ambition and work ethic and their overall laziness and lack of self-motivation, and has little or nothing to do with those in upper management who make the compensation decisions.
Well, by giving all the money to the rich, the masses cost the economy less in demand for goods that drives up costs building new capital assets, ensuring demand does not cause costly price increases and costly hiring of workers.
In free lunch economics, cutting costs does not mean cutting profits, or prices. Further cutting costs never means consumption spending is ever cut, because consumers are not workers, and workers are not consumers.
If there’s free competition then of course cutting costs means cutting prices, otherwise a business goes out of business.
5) So if stagnation started much earlier, can we then conclude that Trump’s election is UNRELATED to stangation?
The assumption was that this is a recent phenomenon that lead to a populist candidate.
Do we need to revisit that theory?
I starting drinking soda I twenty years ago, it’s unrelated to my recent diabities!
Though I agree that the stagnation was a necessary but not sufficient explanation for Trumps victory.
Trump beat Republicans promising free lunches by promising to pay his backer to eat lunch.
Republicans beat Democrats because Democrats required workers pay for lunch in order to provide the money to pay the workers to prepare lunch. Ie, tax and spend. Republicans promised they would cut the prices while hiking wages.
TANSTAAFL.
I loved reading Tea Partiers figuring this out in reaction of Obama’s support for PPPs. If hiking the gas tax was not allowed, then turning the bridge project over to a public private partnership that would pay to build the new bridge and then privately charge a toll so their would be no hike in taxes and fees by wasteful government, suddenly because just another trick by Obama to steal their money. But they they looked at all the tax revenues and figured out that even slashing wages would not build the bridge, and they were not getting paid enough to live on doing construction anyway.
Trump argued convincingly enough he could pay workers good wages using borrowed money to build bridges without charging the workers the entire amount to use the bridges, just like Trump did on his casinos, etc.
3. Preserving ‘decorum and traditions’ of a city or region is always an interesting and fraught question. I suspect much of the dining experience in the acceptable establishments–representing those same decorum and traditions–will include dishes featuring corn (maize), potato, and (of course!) tomato. All of which are historically recent culinary developments being brought over from the Americas. One would expect that the kebob, given the historical standing of Venice as a trading centre, is more ‘local’ than perceived ‘traditional’ fare. Although there is the catch-all ‘fast food’ as a part of this ban, it is in the context of other regions citing a kebob ban that impugns this action, if not at least a little, as anti-muslim or xenophobic or a slant to that direction … (or something like that).
Fast food is strongly correlated with litter…….can’t blame them if they want less litter in a place that depends entirely on the looks. There are littering minimization strategies but humans are humans and takeaway food packaging ends in the streets. In Venice’s case, imagine picking up wet carton and napkins from canals.
ps. taking into account the Ottoman-Venetian wars, kebap is not local 😉
It’s really bizarre because there is almost no authentic Venetian food in Venice itself anyway. The kebab is a way better option than the multitude of crappy restaurants that serve microwaved ‘lasagna’ and other garbage that has nothing to do with Venice. There is a great thread in the flyertalk forums by a guy named Perche that is a fantastic deep dive of Venetian cuisine. Really helped me out on my trip there a few months ago.
Is it something you would have found in Venice 50 years ago? Then keep it. Otherwise the kabob stands turn it into the same as old city street food scene you get anywhere in Europe. I wish this homogenization of cultures- especially in Europe – would go away. The fun of traveling is seeing something new and unique. It’s why the appearance of a Starbucks in a foreign land can feel so depressing even if it can be reassuring at the same time.
The Mediterranean region has been a cultural melting pot for millenia. It is pretty arbitrary to insist on a 50-year cut-off in defining what is “authentic.” Coffee came from Ethiopia by way of Turkey and pizza almost certainly has Eastern Mediterranean or Middle Eastern origins as well. Etc.
I am happy to defer to Venetians and other Italians the decision as to what constitutes “Italian” food. Just as it would be foolish to say that pizza is Japanese just because tempura was derived from Europeans.
Good thing nobody said that “pizza is Japanese.” 100 years from now, however, exposure to foreign-origin food will have driven a process through which they adopted and modified by the Japanese, just as tempura was.
+1 on this. I was in Venice a few years ago, and the food there was noticeably worse (but more expensive) than other great cities in Italy.
There’s also the question of atmosphere. I’ve never been to Venice so I don’t know what the street life is like: if it’s already rife with t-shirt and trinket stores and food carts, then kebabs aren’t going to detract from the atmosphere. But if they represent a change in the nature of restaurants there, e.g. fast food vs slow food, then banning them could serve a purpose.
Mackinac Island in MI banned most automobiles over a century ago. A kebab place would probably fit in fine, but they’d be right to prevent someone from opening a car rental place on the island.
J.S. Sebastian: I MAKE friends. They’re toys. My friends are toys. I make them. It’s a hobby.
2 (kind of)… would someone explain to me why professional sports do not get slapped with gender discrimination when they setup leagues/tournaments whereby in one group it is all men and in another group there are all women?
Kind of hard to slap the GOAT label on Roger Federer or Serena Williams when their head-to-head singles grand slam record is 0-0.
2. My suspicion is that the marginal benefit for men to serve faster will result in more aces than for women relative to the increased probability of faulting on a first serve. Also, women’s second serves are much easier to take advantage of than men’s (less spin and depth) so the women have to be a little more sensitive to giving up the first serve going for an ace.
Didn’t this already happen in 1998 when Karsten Braasch played the Williams sisters?
Many people are unaware or pretend to be unaware.
But….. but…. but….. women = men!
I believe most professional men’s sports aren’t all men de jure. They’re technically open to everyone. For example, every so often we get stories of a female hockey player trying out for the NHL or lower-level league. I believe female golfers occasionally jump to the PGA circuit from the LPGA.
It’s only the women’s leagues which are explicitly one gender. And no one is going to hit them for gender discrimination. (Well, at least until transgender athletes become more common).
The whole women can’t discriminate against men, but men can discriminate against women? Got it.
7. Cohn has an excellent track record, so I agree with Cowen that his assessment of the Comey letter is significant. Here is Cohn’s conclusion in the article at Cowen’s link:
“It’s hard to rule out the possibility that Mr. Comey was decisive in such a close election. Mr. Trump won Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by less than a percentage point. Even if there were no evidence to support a shift after Mr. Comey’s letter, there would still be reason to wonder whether his actions were decisive. The story dominated the news for much of the week before the election. One could imagine how Mr. Comey’s letter might have swayed voters who remained undecided heading into Election Day.”
I believe it’s a mistake to place too much emphasis on one news story. Rather, the drumbeat of negative publicity surrounding Ms. Clinton took its toll over the course of the campaign, Trump’s repeated charges that she was crooked (“crooked Hillary”) and calls for jailing her giving Republican leaning voters reason for backing Trump. The lesson of the 2016 campaign is that slander works. At least it worked in 2016 for Trump. But now that Trump is president, we all know that Trump lies, about things large and small, lying about his opponent just one of so many lies they are too numerous to count. Will anyone believe a presidential candidate in the future who is so loose with the truth? Let’s hope not.
It may also have persuaded some voters not to vote at all.
https://pjmedia.com/video/obama-communications-director-doubts-hillary-would-have-won-before-comey/
“Obama Communications Director Doubts Hillary Would Have Won Before Comey”
6. Because of these Obama policies and “stimulus” funding, many states have switched from a salary schedule model contract to these “evaluation based” ones. No longer does a teacher get more money just for being there another year (or worse, for having attained a masters degree in education). Now, they are “evaluated”, and given “points” based on that evaluation. Raises are tied to points.
This is how Indiana now does it as well. Evaluations have been left in the hands of local administrators, many of whom have far less that adversarial relationships with the unions they ostensibly bargain with. After all, it’s not their money that they are squandering.
Who evaluates the administrators?
rayward, I told you to sell UBS
1. Wow, that one is up Tyler’s alley in several ways.
“5. New and even more shocking results on income stagnation.: ”
I always do a text string search on these kind of articles for “migra,” as in immigration or migration. As usual, this latest Washington Post article comes up with no hits for that text string.
“I always do a text string search on these kind of articles for ‘migra,’ as in immigration or migration.”
Legal or ilegal.
A political distinction mostly irrelevant to economic theory. Increased labor supply decreases labor price. (Only mostly because illegal has less bargaining power, which also reduces the price of labor).
I doubt illegals deppress the wages of the same people legals
Re: 5, here is the abstract from the underlying paper:
“Using panel data on individual labor income histories from 1957 to 2013, we document two empirical facts about the distribution of lifetime income in the United States. First, from the cohort that entered the labor market in 1967 to the cohort that entered in 1983, median lifetime income of men declined by 10%–19%. We find little-to-no rise in the lower three-quarters of the percentiles of the male lifetime income distribution during this period. Accounting for rising employer-provided health and pension benefits partly mitigates these findings but does not alter the substantive conclusions. For women, median lifetime income increased by 22%–33% from the 1957 to the 1983 cohort, but these gains were relative to very low lifetime income for the earliest cohort. Much of the difference between newer and older cohorts is attributed to differences in income during the early years in the labor market. Partial life-cycle profiles of income observed for cohorts that are currently in the labor market indicate that the stagnation of lifetime incomes is unlikely to reverse. Second, we find that inequality in lifetime incomes has increased significantly within each gender group. However, the closing lifetime gender gap has kept overall lifetime inequality virtually flat. The increase within gender groups is largely attributed to an increase in inequality at young ages, and partial life-cycle income data for younger cohorts indicate that the increase in inequality is likely to continue. Overall, our findings point to the substantial changes in labor market outcomes for younger workers as a critical driver of trends in both the level and inequality of lifetime income over the past 50 years.”
They mention that accounting for the rise in value of benefits mitigates the findings, but doesn’t alter the substantive conclusion. Is there any information about the actual amount of mitigation there? One would think it would be substantial, given how much the cost of providing nonmonetary benefits – particularly healthcare – has increased.
Another question: Given that the authors say that the driver is lower incomes during early years in the labor market, how much of the effect is driven by the collapse in wages for unskilled/uneducated labor? Assuming they are using “median” on the population and not on the income, the majority in the U.S. is not college educated (only about a 1/4 of adults had attained at least a bachelor’s in 2003 – not sure about more recent numbers, but doubt it’s a majority).
7. We really should rename this the Huma Abedine effect rather than after Comey. After all, it was her stupidity in forwarding emails to her then husband Anthony Weiner that cause the “October Surprise.” Let’s place the blame where it should reside!!
Came to the comments to make a similar point. Why are people worried about the FBI director revealing accurate information, rather than about someone forwarding classified emails to a sex offender? Isn’t the actual crime more to blame than merely revealing the crime to the public?
Either way, you’d need to find some people who actually changed their vote based on the Comey letter before you start speculating what-ifs and might-have-beens. Was it NBC’s fault the election was a close as it was, with their release of the Trump tape costing him so much support? It’s pretty silly to blame Comey here, when there are so many much larger targets for responsibility, starting with the candidates themselves….
Either way, you’d need to find some people who actually changed their vote based on the Comey letter before you start speculating what-ifs and might-have-beens.
At the time, the media did have some interviews people who said they switched to vote for Trump because of Comey’s latest letter. Whether they were telling the truth is another story.
“Let’s place the blame where it should reside!!” That’d be a hell of a change in strategy.
What this is, is really rather banal:
“His then-spouse Huma Abedin appears to have a regular practice of forwarding emails to him for him, I think, to print out for her so she could then deliver them to the secretary of state,” he said.
Comey said that he doesn’t think Weiner read the emails.
I say banal, because I caught today’s testimony. It’s not like then-husband Weiner was on Moscow’s freaking payroll.
No, but he’d sure be a target. Given his reputation, send him the right kind of email and they’d have his computer. Goldmine, unexpected to be sure. They’d be trying to access his network at home to get to Huma’s laptop.
1) Illegal
2) He saved them all under “insurance policy.”
3) He’s a total honey pot or blackmail risk. You wouldn’t give him a secret clearance.
Do you have a shred of intellectual integrity? Max Boot asks that and more ..
http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/05/08/russiagate-trump-is-trying-to-put-out-a-fire-with-more-smoke/
According to two sources familiar with the matter — including one in law enforcement — Abedin forwarded only a handful of Clinton emails to her husband for printing — not the “hundreds and thousands” cited by Comey. It does not appear Abedin made “a regular practice” of doing so. Other officials said it was likely that most of the emails got onto the computer as a result of backups of her Blackberry.
It was not clear how many, if any, of the forwarded emails were among the 12 “classified” emails Comey said had been found on Weiner’s laptop. None of the messages carried classified markings at the time they were sent.
So that is the new talking point? Weiner is trustworthy so what is the big deal?
I’m actually pleased at this. The Democrats have serious problems and with Clinton continuing to suck resources out of the party will pretty much guarantee a continued decline and radicalization of her internal opponents. We might even see the Democrat machines start to be threatened.
Someone might actually start to figure out that the important center left policies cannot be trusted to such a disgusting group of people.
It is a matter of scale, derek. Huma asked her then husband to print a few things not marked as classified. Compare that in SCALE to this:
“The outgoing White House also became concerned about the Trump team’s handling of classified information. After learning that highly sensitive documents from a secure room at the transition’s Washington headquarters were being copied and removed from the facility, Obama’s national security team decided to only allow the transition officials to view some information at the White House, including documents on the government’s contingency plans for crises.”
You guys are hilarious. If you cared one ounce about actual security issues, that is where your eyes, and complaints, would be.
Well, if the Italians don’t want Kebab shops, maybe they shouldn’t have conquered Jerusalem and Judea and brought back slaves!
One does not need to conquer other peoples to gather what the world’s culture have to offer. Brazil NEVER invaded a country, yet Brazil’s Arab cuisine is the world’s best. You’ve never eaten real kibbeh until you ate kibbeh… at any Brazilian little bar or supermarket. Some Arab acquaintances of mine mentioned that Brazil’s kibbeh is the world’s best.
Judea was conquered over 2000 years ago and was inhabited continuous by non-white non-Europeans for that entire period.
Use of the word indicates support for colonist activity under military occupation with forced population movements, which nearly every nation on the planet condemns.
Because it’s wrong to colonize under military occupation with forced population movements. Not because in some ancient era it was held by people who later continued their traditions elsewhere.
8. This trailer and movie are a perfect example of the color grading virus metastisizing:
Sunday, March 14, 2010
Teal and Orange – Hollywood, Please Stop the Madness
Those of you who watch a lot of Hollywood movies may have noticed a certain trend that has consumed the industry in the last few years. It is one of the most insidious and heinous practices that has ever overwhelmed the industry. Am I talking about the lack of good scripts? Do I speak of the dependency of a few mega-blockbuster hits to save the studios each year, or of the endless sequels and television retreads? No, I am talking about something much more dangerous, much deadlier to the health of cinema.
I speak of course, of THE COLOR GRADING VIRUS THAT IS TEAL & ORANGE!!!
This is the insidious practice of color-grading every movie with a simplified, distilled palette of teal and orange….
http://theabyssgazes.blogspot.com/2010/03/teal-and-orange-hollywood-please-stop.html
Well, I for one, like teal. Most of my shirts are gray.
Fascinating. Ty. And you are right!
Well, O brother, where are thou was color graded in sepia
Well, O brother, where are thou was color graded in sepia, which is a fish so i’m not sure how that’s done exactly
“We’re proud to be collaborating again with UBS, a partner that shares our dedication to providing greater access to the world’s most influential artists and exhibitions,” said Sebastian Cwilich, Artsy’s President and COO. “The Venice Biennale is a uniquely important cultural moment and we’re excited to share it with Artsy’s millions of monthly visitors in this cutting-edge new format.”
“Our latest collaboration with Artsy—the ‘Inside the Biennale,’ VR documentary series—reflects our shared commitment to making the dynamic world of contemporary art more accessible to a broader public by using state-of-the-art technology,” stated Johan Jervøe, Group Chief Marketing Officer, UBS. “These films help advance a deeper understanding of the art world in much the same way as we help our clients navigate complex challenges and opportunities in the financial world.”
#3: If people want to buy “foreign” food, why not? On the reverse, I hate to see various government/academic types pressure Italian school children and families to adopt a less-Italian food diet:
http://isteve.blogspot.com/2008/06/nyt-italy-lagging-lamentably-behind-on.html
The idea that anyone living in Venice would seriously write, “Tourists go away!!!” is ridiculous. Venice has been a completely tourist-centric city for decades. I bet there are very few residents that aren’t involved in the tourism industry. The whole existence of Venice is a tourist spot.
It is possible to have some standards while continuing to welcome tourists. Without picking on kebabs specifically, the fast food industry can stay out of Venice.
Sure, that’s totally reasonable and quite common in many cities.
#7 is obviously true for non Marxists.
Er, umm, I mean #6. If this was twitter I’d embed a gif of [youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V3FnpaWQJO0&w=854&h=480%5D
Er, umm, I mean #6. If this was twitter I’d embed a gif of Roseanne Roseannadanna.
#3: so Venice begins to Remove Kebab?
212 683 7000
Enewyork@pentagram.com
“Pentagram’s Natasha Jen and team have created a new brand identity system for Van Leeuwen that position it as the ice cream of choice. Stripping off all the visual noise typically seen in ice cream branding, the new identity deploys minimal graphic elements—the logo and a decisive color palette—that reflects the purity of the ingredients, and colorful pints that stand out in stores and look great on social media. Since the introduction of the new packaging in the fall, retail sales have increased 50 percent.”
6. What a state !
On the other hand,
http://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/who-lives-longer-study-finds-colorado-wins-20-years-n756471
#6 “The .09 percent ineffective number is a little more complicated than it seems at first glance. Because of how districts report all ratings to the state, explained Bivens, the numbers only include teachers who remain the following school year. Left out are those who leave the district voluntarily or are fired. If more low-performing teachers are among those departing, which seems likely, this would understate the true proportion of educators rated ineffective.”
1. Amazing story. Thank you Tyler. Clayton is an inspiration.
#6 Reverse School Choice
Instead of parent selecting schools for their children, in Shanghai the schools select the parents, by giving them IQ tests. Local regulation has restriction on IQ testing on student selection but has nothing on the parents. Try some of the test items. A parent with a PhD in finance considered them to be very tough.
http://www.top-news.top/news-12910161.html
I suspect the selection officers are collecting data for their post-grad research projects. Such data will settle the question of the heritability of IQ.
The question has already been answered by strutting twin pairs at the population level. IQ is .60-.70 of the variation in IQ scores determined by genetic variation. Additional studies have confirmed that the extent of this expression is strongly influenced by the SES of the home environment.
If a) there are two variables on the planet and b) every other thing on the planet is stuffed into the “genetic component” variable, then you might find a result like this. Due to such methodological failures, the field tends to be easily disparaged among real scientists, for example those who believe that three, or perhaps even four, variables, might be relevant for consideration at the same time. And that stuffing the rest of the universe into “genetic effect” is basically fraudulent.
But maybe you have some better information which does not rely on such methods that would rightfully lead to a failing grade on a second year stats project?
Tyler, I’m still surprised you haven’t tried to get Clay Christensen on your podcast / conversations with Tyler.
He has one of the best books on how new companies emerge and win ground against established companies (talks a lot about Coase Theorem), how new technology actually gets deployed to increase productivity in an economy (addressing your stagnation concerns), talks about how ineffective business teachings have been since the late 70’s and he is a Morman! Please get him on
2. Not sure you can apply utility and prospect theory to points in sports. It’s a theory of utility of wealth (money). The channel from points in a game to expected money is not defined, so it doesn’t really apply. As Tyler would say, speculative…
Nate Silver responds to Nate Cohn’s column in a series of tweets that seem to refute Nate Cohn’s case:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861630917504376835