(cache) Trump's debut as commander-in-chief - Axios
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Trump's debut as commander-in-chief

Evan Vucci / AP

Last night's strike on Syria, on Day 77 of the Trump presidency, was the first time the nation and the world had seen him act as commander-in-chief. He moved quickly and decisively, but now is a central player in what CNN's Fareed Zakaria last night called "one of the most complicated international crises I've ever seen in my life."

Truth is: Trump, for months, has been telling people in private to expect an unexpectedly harsh response to Syrian aggression.

The attack had the ancillary effect of separating Trump from Putin, who views the the strikes as "aggression against a sovereign state in violation of the norms of international law," and believes the attack was done under a "trumped-up pretext," according to his spokesman.

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Trump aides say they're proud of his decision. A senior administration official gave me this window into the president's thinking:

  • The White House sees this as "leadership week": the decision to order a missile strike on Syria after its deadly nerve-agent attack on its own citizens, including children; a prime-time announcement to the nation from Mar-a-Lago last night, in which Trump said, "God bless America and the entire world"; his assertive stance on North Korea, with the rogue state testing him by firing a ballistic missile; and meetings with the heads of state of Egypt, Jordan and, continuing today, China.
  • Trump had said Wednesday that the chemical attack "crossed a lot of lines for me ... innocent children, innocent babies — babies, little babies." The official said: "Nothing clarifies the mind like seeing those images."
  • The official said that in his response to the grim, moving photos, Trump was acting partly as a father and a grandfather. As he said said on the campaign trail, he consulted his generals. He took the briefings, discussed the options, then acted after "years of dithering" by the United States, the official added.

From Trump's three-minute statement to the nation from Mar-a-Lago at 9:40 p.m.: "Tonight, I call on all civilized nations to join us in seeking to end the slaughter and bloodshed in Syria, and also to end terrorism of all kinds and all types. We ask for God's wisdom as we face the challenge of our very troubled world. We pray for the lives of the wounded and for the souls of those who have passed.

"And we hope that as long as America stands for justice, then peace and harmony will, in the end, prevail. Good night. And God bless America and the entire world. Thank you."

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Trump fires Comey as Russia probe intensifies

Susan Walsh / AP

President Trump fired FBI Director James Comey on Tuesday, saying he'd lost confidence in his ability to manage the bureau. This capped a difficult year for Comey, whose handling of the Hillary Clinton email investigation drew scrutiny from both sides of the aisle.

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Shortly after the news broke, CNN reported that it learned of federal subpoenas seeking business records related to Michael Flynn in the hours before Comey's firing, in an apparent expansion of the FBI's investigation into ties between Trump associates and Russia.

White House officials are denying that Comey's firing had anything to do with the probe — deputy press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders has said it's time to move on from the Russia investigation entirely. Meanwhile, Trump has gone after Chuck Schumer. He will meet Wednesday in the Oval Office with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

Full coverage: How the White House is spinning it, concerns in the Clinton camp, GOP senators raise questions, comparisons to Nixon, full reaction roundup, timeline of how we got here, the pattern of who Trump has fired, GOP congressman wants independent probe, the letters that got Comey fired, news orgs prepare for leaks

Key questions and answers on Comey's firing:

  1. What happened? Trump informed Comey in a letter that he was terminated "effective immediately." CNN reports Trump's private security guard may have delivered the letter to the FBI, but Comey was in Los Angeles. Per NYT's Michael Schmidt, he was addressing FBI employees there when news of his firing flashed on T.V. screens in the background, and he originally thought it was a prank.
  2. What did Trump say? He appreciated Comey informing him "on three separate occasions that I am not under investigation" but "you are not able to effectively lead the bureau."
  3. Was it really so sudden? Per Schmidt, "WH and DOJ had been working on firing Comey since at least last week. Sessions had been working to come up with reasons."
  4. What happens next? Deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe will serve as acting director until a permanent replacement is nominated. The position requires Senate confirmation.
  5. How are Democrats reacting? Many are drawing comparisons to Watergate, and Chuck Schumer is calling for an independent Russia probe
  6. How are Republicans reacting? Most are lining up behind Trump but Senate Intelligence chairman Richard Burr said he was "troubled by the timing and reasoning of Director Comey's termination," and John McCain has renewed his call for an independent Russia investigation.
  7. What did Obama and Clinton say? "No comment," via their spokespeople.
Perspectives and analysis:

Peter Baker, NYT

"The appointment of a successor to Mr. Comey could touch off a furious fight since anyone he would choose would automatically come under suspicion. A confirmation fight could easily distract Mr. Trump's White House at a time when it wants the Senate to focus on passing legislation to repeal former President Barack Obama's health care law."

Evan Osnos, the New Yorker

"Serious question: Where are Comey's files right now? Who controls them? After Nixon fired special prosecutor, office was sealed. Important."

Benjamin Wittes and Susan Hennessey, Lawfare blog

"The FBI Director serves a ten-year term precisely in order to insulate against the whims of a President who does not like what—or whom—the FBI is investigating. While the President has legal authority to fire an FBI director, the fact that Trump has done so under circumstances of an active FBI investigation of the President's own campaign violates profoundly important norms of an independent, non-political FBI."

Amanda Carpenter, former GOP strategist

"If Trump thinks he had problems w/leaks before, just wait. He abruptly fired the leader to whom many FBI folks are loyal. Blowback is coming."

The full statement from the White House:

Today, President Donald J. Trump informed FBI Director James Comey that he has been terminated and removed from office. President Trump acted based on the clear recommendations of both Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and Attorney General Jeff Sessions."The FBI is one of our Nation's most cherished and respected institutions and today will mark a new beginning for our crown jewel of law enforcement," said President Trump.A search for a new permanent FBI Director will begin immediately.
From Trump's letter to Comey:
"... you are hereby terminated and removed from office, effective immediately. While I greatly appreciate you informing me, on three separate occasions, that I am not under investigation, I nevertheless concur with the judgement of the Department of Justice that you are not able to effectively lead the bureau."

From Sessions' recommendation:

"As Attorney General I am committed to a high level of discipline, integrity, and the rule of law to the department of justice- an institution that I deeply respect. Based on my evaluation, and for the reasons expressed by the deputy attorney general in the attached memorandum, I have concluded that a fresh start is needed at the leadership of the FBI."

From Rosenstein's recommendation:

"Over the past year, however, the FBI's reputation and credibility have suffered substantial damage, and it has affected the entire department of justice...."As you and I have discussed, however, I cannot defend the director's handling of the conclusion of the investigation of secretary Clinton's emails, and I do not understand his refusal to accept the nearly-universal judgement that he was mistaken. Almost everyone agrees that the Director made serious mistakes; it is one of the few issues that unites people of diverse perspective."
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Exclusive: Gore presses Trump on climate pact

Carolyn Kaster / AP

Former Vice President Al Gore personally urged President Trump not to abandon the Paris climate accord in a phone conversation on Tuesday morning, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: The chat between Gore, the world's best-known climate activist, and Trump occurred as the divided administration nears a decision about whether to abandon the 2015 international pact that's aimed at preventing runaway global warming.

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What Gore said: "Mr. Gore made the case for why the U.S. should stay in the Agreement and meet our commitments," said a source close to the former Vice President, who has praised the Paris accord while calling for it to be strengthened over time.

The source was not sure who initiated the conversation but noted, "this is not the first time he's been in touch with the President and others in the Administration about this issue."

  • Gore met with Trump in Trump Tower on Dec. 5, and told The Hollywood Reporter in a mid-January piece that they remained in contact. In late March Gore strongly criticized Trump's moves to unwind Obama's domestic climate regulations.

What's next: White House spokesman Sean Spicer announced Tuesday that Trump would not make a decision until after the late May G-7 heads of state meeting in Italy. Spicer had previously said the White House expected to come to a decision ahead of that summit.

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What to expect from Snap's first earnings report

Rebecca Zisser / Axios

Just over two months since it went public, Snap is gearing up to release its first quarterly earnings report at market close today.

The stakes: Snap's earnings will be under heavy scrutiny. It commanded a massive valuation at IPO despite being unprofitable and having far fewer users than Facebook, so it will have to show improved financials and continued growth. It also must fight growing perceptions that Instagram's cloning of its most popular features is a serious threat.

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Here's what we're watching:

  • Users: Wall Street will expect to see continued user growth and increased engagement despite Snap's arguments that it's prioritizing quality over quantity. It won't have to match Facebook's size yet, but it'll have to show the ability to grow, especially in the face of Instagram's copy of its Stories features, which some believe has cut into Snap's gains. It also could appease investors if it shows it can increasingly monetize user loyalty by growing its ARPU (average revenue per user).
  • Profit: Per Snap's IPO documents, it had a $514 million net loss on around $404 million in revenue during 2016, so expect the losses to continue. However, as a long-time Snap investor told Axios in January, unprofitable companies need to show discipline and a path to profitability once they're public.
  • Advertising: A large pitch of Snap's IPO pitch was its ability to continue to drum up ad dollars, going from $0 to ~$400 million in ad revenue from 2014-2016. The company has made huge strides in beefing up its ad program over the past several months, including launching a self-serve ad platform last Thursday that will allow Snap to compete with Facebook and Instagram for small business dollars. Analysts estimate that these investments will help Snap continue to significantly grow its ad revenue, which is by far its largest revenue stream. eMarketer's latest estimate predicts Snap will growing its ad revenue by 158% this year, and will continue to grow by 66% and 73% in 2018 and 2019.
  • Content: Snapchat has been inking original content deals and partnerships with publishers, but it will have to stay on its toes as its competitors like Twitter, Facebook, and YouTube roll out deals of their own.
  • Stock: Snap's stock has had a rocky two months since debuting on the NYSE. Just two weeks later, its price briefly dipped below $20 and has since zig-zagged.
Flashback: Even if Snap's results meet expectations, investor reaction may not match. When Facebook (in 2012) and Twitter (in 2014) released their first earnings reports, they both beat expectations and saw revenue increases — but shares still took a tumble.
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Now what? Hurdles for CBO and the governors

Steve Cannon / AP

Now that the House has acted (and left town), the Congressional Budget Office has to find a useful way to estimate what will happen with the state waivers in the health care bill — more useful than the way it has tried to predict state decisions in the past. And we need a better sense of what the governors are planning to do.
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Here's what we ought to be looking for:

CBO has a different job: It can't be useful if it does its usual scoring, because the number of people likely to lose what it defines as comprehensive insurance depends wholly on which states, if any, opt to seek waivers to allow insurers to underwrite for pre-existing conditions and/or cut back on essential benefits. (The waivers were created by Rep. Tom MacArthur's changes to the first bill.)

Instead, it should provide a series of scores based on hypothetical scenarios of which states seek the waiver. For example, one score would guess that Texas, Florida, and other southern states would seek a waiver, perhaps by assuming that all those that opted not to expand Medicaid would allow the waiver.

Then it could project how many more people nationally would lose comprehensive insurance because they cannot afford the rates to be charged in the high risk pools, versus how many more healthy people would opt to get insurance because the rates in the regular pool get lower as a result of the sick being kicked out.

That would then also allow CBO to project how much lower those non-high-risk rates would be.

A second score would assume that no state opts to allow waivers (because the political pressure on governors not to pull the trigger — both from voters and the state's hospitals and doctors — is likely to be so strong).

A third score might assume that just the most conservative governors — perhaps Greg Abbott in Texas and Rick Scott in Florida — seek waivers.

The CBO faced a similar dilemma in July 2012, after the Supreme Court ruled that states could opt out of expanding Medicaid. In reissuing an estimate of how many people would now be covered by Medicaid and what it could cost, CBO declined to sketch multiple scenarios, or to predict which states would do what.

Instead the auditors vaguely cited "many factors that states are likely to take into account," and projected that only one third of the Medicaid-eligible population would end up being fully covered, half would end up being partially covered, and only a sixth would not get coverage at all.

This time, a state-by-state projection seems doable because the "factors" and the decision are so binary.

Besides, the CBO's post-Supreme Court estimate was simply an update to a law already passed, not guidance for how Congress should vote. They need to do better this time. If CBO doesn't do that multi-tiered estimate, the Kaiser Family Foundation or some other non-partisan group ought to.

Which reminds me: Why aren't reporters going state by state to see which governors, if any, will touch the new third rail of politics — eliminating the pre-existing condition restriction?

Which, in turn, demonstrates the illogic of the explanation some Republicans gave for switching their positions and voting for the bill because, they said, they were now satisfied that it would lower premiums and deductibles for most by putting those with pre-existing conditions into the high risk pools.

Does Republican John Faso of New York really think Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo is going to seek a waiver? If not, how does the new bill lower premiums and deductibles? Same question for New Jersey's Rodney Frelinghuysen. Did he switch his position because he thinks Chris Christie, who expanded Medicaid, is going to seek a waiver?

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News orgs solicit anonymous tips amid Comey firing

In response to the unexpected firing of FBI Director James Comey Tuesday, major news organizations tweeted out links to secure hotlines where anyone with knowledge of information around the controversy could anonymously submit tips. They include the New Yorker, Washington Post, USA Today, Wired, Vice and more.

Here's why: The abrupt firing of Comey is likely to raise concerns with many officials, perhaps even some in the White House, and could prompt them to leak information to the press. A plethora of leaks since Trump's election shows the administration is not united behind many of the president's decisions.

The trend: News organizations have been promoting anonymous tip hotlines since Trump took office and leaks from his Administration started to become more frequent. Gizmodo bought ads earlier this year, targeted at government employees, to get them to submit anonymous tips.

Here are a list of all news organizations with Secure Drop accounts: https://securedrop.org/directory

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GOP senators question Comey firing

Alex Brandon / AP

Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska:

"Regardless of how you think Director Comey handled the unprecedented complexities of the 2016 election cycle, the timing of this firing is very troubling.... I have reached out to the Deputy Attorney General for clarity on his rationale for recommending this action."

Senator Jeff Flake of Arizona:

"I've spent the last several hours trying to find an acceptable rationale for the timing of Comey's firing. I just can't do it."

Senator Richard Burr of North Carolina:

"I am troubled by the timing and reasoning of Director Comey's termination."

Senator John McCain of Arizona:

"I am disappointed in the President's decision to remove James Comey from office.... I have long called for a special congressional committee to investigate Russia's interference in the 2016 election. The president's decision... only confirms the need and the urgency of such a committee."

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How the White House is spinning Comey's firing

Carolyn Kaster, Evan Vucci, Andrew Harnik / AP

Here's what the White House is saying about Trump's decision to fire Comey Tuesday:

1. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, on the Russia investigation: "My gosh Tucker, when are they gonna let that go? … Frankly it's kind of getting absurd. There's nothing there."

2. Sean Spicer: "The goal today was to act on the recommendation…to restore confidence in the FBI."

3. Kellyanne Conway: "It's not a coverup."


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Clinton staffers alarmed by Comey firing

Patrick Semansky / AP

Hillary Clinton's former aides aren't known for their affection toward James Comey. In fact many of them blamed him for Clinton's election loss, but tonight they were quick to criticize President Trump's decision to fire Comey:

  • Senator Tim Kaine, Clinton's former running mate: "Trump firing Comey shows how frightened the Admin is over Russia investigation... Comey firing part of a growing pattern by White House to cover-up the truth."
  • John Podesta, former chairman of the Clinton campaign, in reference to former President Richard Nixon's 1973 "Saturday Night Massacre": "@realDonaldTrump Didn't you know you're supposed to wait til Saturday night to massacre people investigating you?"
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  • Robby Mook, Clinton's former campaign manager who has been outwardly critical of Comey since the election: "Twilight zone. I was as disappointed and frustrated as anyone at how the email investigation was handled. But this terrifies me... Surprised I'm saying this, but I don't see how this bodes well for the Russia investigation."
  • Brian Fallon, Clinton's former press secretary: "I'm not shedding any tears for Comey personally -he hurt FBI's reputation- but I do worry whether we ever get to the bottom of Russia now."
  • Glen Caplin, former Clinton spokesman who now works as a senior adviser for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand: "I am no Comey fan, but POTUS firing FBI Director conducting investigation into campaign is indefensible. Need independent investigation ASAP... Flynn out, Sessions had to recuse himself, Nunes had to step aside, Epshteyn shipped out of the WH, Comey fired...notice any similarities?"
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3 people fired by Trump were all investigating Trumpworld

AP

Among the most prominent officials President Trump has fired since taking office are Sally Yates, Preet Bharara, and James Comey.

What they have in common: They all were investigating Trump when they got fired, and there's a Russia thread in each of their cases.

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Sally Yates, fired Jan. 30, 2017:

  • Former acting Attorney General
  • Ordered the DOJ not to defend Trump's travel ban, which he issued within days of taking office.
  • As acting AG, Yates was key to the investigation into Trump's aides and their potential connections to Russia — she was collecting intelligence on the Russian ambassador to the U.S. and which members of the Trump team he had been in contact with. (That includes Mike Flynn, who was fired due to his communications with the ambassador.)

Preet Bharara, fired March 11, 2017:

  • Former U.S. Attorney
  • Put up a fight to continue his job even after Trump announced he would seek the resignation from all U.S. attorneys.
  • Bharara was investigating Trump's HHS Secretary Tom Price for his financial investments.
  • Bharara was also investigating corrupt Russian businessmen and officials (and a witness for the case was pushed or fell from a window the day before he was set to testify in another court case).

James Comey, fired May 9, 2017:

  • Former FBI Director
  • Announced the DOJ would not prosecute Hillary Clinton over her emails, but then announced a new revelation about her emails right before the presidential election.
  • Comey was, like Yates, investigating Trump's Russia ties, which he revealed on March 20.
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GOP congressman wants independent Russia probe after "bizarre" Trump quote

Carly Geraci / AP

This is Rep. Justin Amash, a libertarian Republican from Michigan. He wants an independent Russia probe, and he's pointing to a Trump paragraph in the letter firing Comey:

"While I greatly appreciate you informing me, on three separate occassions, that I am not under investigation, I nevertheless concur with the judgment of the Department of Justice that you are not able to effectively lead the Bureau."

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All the people comparing Trump to Nixon

AP

In a surprise move, President Trump fired FBI Director James Comey Tuesday night. Almost immediately after several people began comparing the move to former President Richard Nixon's controversial firing of Special Prosecutor Archibald Cox and Attorney General Elliot Richardson and Deputy AG William D. Ruckelshaus in 1973:

  • Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), ranking member on House Oversight committee: The firing "harkens back to a similarly tainted decision by President Nixon."
  • Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV): "I'm old enough to remember... and it didn't come out so well for President Nixon."
  • Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT): "This is nothing less than Nixonian."
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  • Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA): "This is Nixonian. Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein must immediately appoint a special prosecutor to continue the Trump/Russia investigation."
  • Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT): It certainly is "Nixonian" in tone to fire someone of this stature in the midst of an investigation.
  • Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA): Comey firing "disturbingly reminiscent of the Saturday Night Massacre during the Watergate scandal &the natl turmoil that it caused."
  • Rep. Anthony Brown (D-MD): "Termination of FBI Director Comey is highly troubling at best, or Nixonian at worst given he was leading Russia-Trump investigation. I renew my call for a special counsel & independent commission to fully and impartially investigate Russian interference in our elections..."
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