(cache) GNOSIS

Top Layer

Application

(optional app fees)

Insurance

Gnosis can be used to create novel and more efficient forms of insurance. Markets will be created to estimate various insurance event risks. For example, “will this house flood?” This, in effect, crowdsources actuarial work. Analysts may use complex models to automate participation in many markets. A smart contract which buys YES positions in the corresponding markets would be used by the insuree. These contracts would pay out in the case of an insurance event. Our oracle market would be used by claims inspectors to settle such markets. This method of disintermediation could drastically lower costs for insurees.

Insurance

Information Sales

Prediction market applications for information sales can be broken into two major categories — sales of insider information, and sales of device data. The former is of incredibly high utility, but of questionable morality and legality. The latter example of device data sales may result in more efficient IoT optimizations. An example of this application is smart cars participating in a market asking “what is the current speed of traffic at this location?” Such a market resembles a Waze for machine to machine interactions and could provide a profit opportunity for sensor devices and probability estimates usable to directly optimize IoT operations. We envision an exciting future of prediction markets used for machine to machine interactions, and AI participation in information economies.

Information Sales

Financial Markets

This financial markets questionnaire is the result of an ongoing collaboration with Wedbush Securities. The initial application is a non-monetized prediction market based feedback application for securities research firms to get outside feedback on expected stock fundamentals. We hope that later iterations of this application will open the door to a new generation of financial markets, allowing for trading on a wide variety of stock fundamentals. We believe that this is a development that could be truly transformational for financial markets in general: Having a continuous stream of information on fundamentals and more accurate models using conditional markets will hopefully result in more efficient markets and less volatility.

Financial Markets

Middle Layer

Gnosis Services

(Fees payed by WIZ tokens)

Oracle Platform

Our oracle platform allows everyone to easily integrate new oracles into Gnosis and offer their oracles to the Gnosis community. Since every Ethereum account holder can become an oracle for every event, it becomes very easy to bootstrap prediction markets for every need.

Oracle Platform

Futarchy

Futarchy is a method of governance that uses markets to effectively make decisions. With Futarchy, markets are created asking the effect of a decision on a welfare metric. Decisions are made according to which market shows a better outcome in this metric. For example, a corporation may use futarchy to decide whether or not to fire their CEO. Two markets would be created, one for the future stock price if the CEO is kept, and one for the future stock price if they are fired. Upon market closure, the CEO is either kept or fired, depending on which market shows a higher future stock price. Market participants in the market for the enacted decision then either profit or incur a loss depending on the accuracy of their prediction. This method can be used for any type of governance, including nation states, corporations, DAOs, or nonprofit entities.

Futarchy

State Channels

Raiden Network is a proposed extension to Ethereum which scales-out asset transfer capacity. It's inspired by the Lightning Network which leverages off-chain asset transfers to carry out the vast majority of transactions. Our development team works closely together with the Raiden team to make Gnosis the first decentralized prediction market to scale to thousands of markets.

State Channels

Base Layer

Gnosis Core

(no fees)

Oracles

Gnosis offers a wide range of different oracle solutions to resolve markets. The ultimate oracle offers a secure decentralized oracle as a backstop solution for centralized oracles. Most events are covered with 3rd party integrations to other oracle providers like RealityKeys and Oraclize.

Oracles

Market Makers

Automated market makers calculate prices for event outcome tokens based on demand using a logarithmic market scoring rule. Gnosis is implementing the LMSR market maker designed by Robin Hanson.

Market Makers

Automated market makers calculate prices for event outcome tokens based on demand using a logarithmic market scoring rule. Gnosis is implementing the LMSR market maker designed by Robin Hanson.

Outcome Tokens

An outcome token is created for every possible outcome of an event. The price of the outcome token represents the market’s probability estimate for this particular outcome. An outcome token pays out 1 if the corresponding outcome occurs and 0 otherwise.

Outcome Tokens

Built on

Crowd Sourced Wisdom

Token Auction

GNOSIS Apps

THE HUNCH GAME

Price Discovery

Financial Markets

Insurance

Futarchy/Governance

Platform Layers

Application

Gnosis Services

Gnosis Core

Ethereum Blockchain

Ethereum

Forums

Partners

Advisors

Vitalik Buterin

Joe Lubin

Jeremy Millar

Jason Trost

James Slazas

Robin Hanson

Paolo Rebuffo

Team

Martin Köppelmann

Stefan George

Matt Liston

Denís Granha

Milad Mostavi

Vlad Todirut

Giacomo Licari

Alan Lu

Dr. Friederike Ernst

Rami Khalil