Zvi Mowshowitz (thezvi) の書き込み:
Zvi Mowshowitz
thezvi

...because scope insensitivity doesn't cancel out

There is the problem of people pushing downside risks, especially unlikely but large ones, onto taxpayers, shareholders or others. If you win, great, you've won, and if you lose big, whoops, oh well, sorry guys.

There is the problem of people not capturing their own upside, since they don't own the business they are working for, and since people can't really properly exploit true big wins, but facing a big loss when being blamed for things.

Most people in large groups, in fact, face both at the same time, and they very much don't cancel out. This is scope insensitivity at its most pernicious, and prospect theory having its revenge on us all. Gains are capped in perception of others, and capped for real somewhat higher than that, thus they are capped in reality. Small losses can lead to the largest possible loss, so any loss isn't that different from the largest one.

These are people's actual incentives. It's not you having a "bias" when you're properly predicting your payoffs! The system is biased, and the people are adjusting to that, which is exactly what they should be doing.

We can't fix the downside risk problem because our society has decided it's unethical to inflict large downside risks on people. We don't boil the cheaters in oil these days, let alone boil their children along with them, because that would be wrong. We can't grant the upside risks either, because that would be increasingly inefficient, and even when we try to do it anyway, all it usually means is that a bunch of money is being spent to accomplish very little other than victories in status competitions.

I keep updating towards this being a bigger and bigger problem and have very little idea what to do about it.
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