An Inaudible Cheer, at Best, for Trump's Attack on Syria

One should have serious misgivings, with at best an inaudible cheer, for Donald Trump’s precipitous decision -- made without any attempt to go through Congress (let alone the U.N.) -- to launch an air attack on a Syrian military base in retaliation for Bashar Assad's chemical warfare attack on enemy strongholds. If it restrains Assad from doing this again, that's good, because chemical weapons are despicable. But, it will also slow Trump's popularity free-fall and divert attention from the damage he has already done or will be trying to do regarding healthcare, the environment, police-community relations, and regulation of the most anti-social consequences of unfettered capitalism. Moreover, a spike in approval ratings -- a short-term near certainty when any President attacks a designated enemy abroad -- will undoubtedly embolden him, with his new Tomahawk toys, to engage elsewhere with no justification (e.g., Iran, Yemen). It can even increase the likelihood of a limited attack on North Korea, which will strengthen its dictator and make South Koreans tremble or worse.

The reality on the ground in Syria is that the military "opposition" now consists almost entirely of Jihadists who are fully in control of Idlib province where the chemical attacks took place. There are no simple responses to Assad's behavior that do not simultaneously strengthen ISIS and Al-Qaeda in Syria. This does not justify in any way the use of those kinds of weapons, but we are bombing Mosul non-stop, causing large numbers of civilian casualties as well, which could in some cases have been avoided. Patrick Cockburn, one of the Mideast's leading war correspondents, who often writes on the wars in Syrian and Iraq for the British publication, The Independent, is worth reading in this regard. Western media has also typically given the US and allied forces a pass by accepting at face value declarations that civilian casualties in our military actions were accidental when evidence suggests otherwise. Still, no one is foolishly claiming a chemical weapon attack could ever be an accident.

I also would not entirely rule out the possibility, though it is small, that Putin signed off on this and was not merely given advanced warning, as it appears now---after initial denials. Putin is not a fan of Assad, according to many reports, but feels there is no alternative to his regime other than ISIS or al-Qaeda. This is also the view of the leading academic specialist on Syria. Putin also initiated the deal in which Syria destroyed its chemical weapons stocks, although apparently not all. He might be angry at Assad because the violation of an international agreement he sponsored undermines Putin’s own already shaky credibility. Iran, which suffered from gas attacks by Iraq, has a visceral reaction against chemical weapons and, whatever they say publicly, may have also been very displeased with Assad in private. (It should be noted that the US was complicit in Saddam’s use of poison gas).

Both Trump and Putin also have a mutual short-term interest in not appearing too cozy with each other. Trump's motives are obvious in this regard, given the investigation into his collusion with Russian intelligence before the election. But, Putin may also feel that it is in his long-term interest to accept some short-term “punishment” for a larger payoff down the road, i.e. ending sanctions.

It is also possible Trump was just being himself, acting impulsively on the basis of his emotion du jour. Or, if more calculating, he was fully aware that nothing brings the mainstream media (including those outlets which have questioned whether he suffers from various psychological disorders which should disqualify anyone from being President) into a frenzy of uncritical support more than military action. Apparently, the measure taken was the least aggressive of those his advisors put before him---a one-shot deal. But a man so much in need of admiration might be excused for imagining next time he should choose a more belligerent course to reap more enduring love.