Thursday, September 3, 2009 118 Comments

A gentle introduction to Unqualified Reservations (part 9a)

Today you begin your irreversible descent into black, unthinkable madness.

In retrospect, of course, the process will appear as it is - an ultimate ascent. Out of the Computer's infinite fluorescent maze. Into the glorious air of pure, unfiltered reason. The last hatch is unlocked above your head. The ladder is at your feet. Warm sunlight, green grass, and real reality - this alone is UR's program. Dare you continue? It is not too late to turn back.

For part 9, the last of the GI series, is also the true red-hot pill of sodium metal - now igniting in your duodenum. Smile grimly! You have almost passed through the flame. You know what history really is, and what it really has to teach us.

Now, all you need to learn is what to do about it. What is the Reaction? The Procedure? The Three Steps? Laugh-a-while you can, monkey-boy. One day, your kids will come home from school and explain it all to you.

(I feel it's essential, at this tense moment, to break the ice with a link to the best Wikipedia page ever: Glossary of the Greek Military Junta. Read the whole thing. While UR could use a glossary itself, it must bend its neck before this awesome, and totally unknown, Hellenic masterpiece. Who needs a Modern Structure - when we have a Synodiporia? What is Universalism - but the Skotadismos? And what is true peace - but isichia, taxis kai asfalia?)

Anyway. Obviously, like any real phenomenon of history, the Greek colonels' regime had its pros and its cons. I am not equipped to measure them. I just like the doxology.

Real things happen. Usually without a plan. They have to be judged as what they are. One can still plan, however. And since we cannot plan the real, we can only plan the ideal.

The Reaction is an ideal plan for a discontinuous transition of sovereignty, or reboot. The Procedure is what you can do, dear reader, to help make the Reaction happen.

A sovereign is defined by its decision structure: the institutions and mechanisms by which it decides to do whatever it does. A reboot is any complete and instantaneous replacement of a sovereign decision structure. The new management inherits full control over all the assets and liabilities of the old enterprise, discarding its procedures and discharging its employees. It is of course free to retain both, but it probably won't.

For example, your old decision structure might be: the Constitution of the United States of America, under the laws of Congress and the several states, as executed by the President and judged by the Supreme Court, answering through free and fair democratic elections to the self-governing American people. Your new decision structure might be: Chuck Norris.

So, at 11:59:59PM on Reaction Eve, the Constitution etc, etc, is as valid as ever, and you get yourself just as arrested as ever if you try to fsck with it. At 12:00:00 AM on Reaction Day, the Constitution is out and Chuck is in.

So what do you do on Reaction Day? Go to work, or school, or church, or whatever a decent citizen like you does with your peaceful, productive day. In theory, the Reaction could happen on a Tuesday night and the rest of your workweek would continue as always. In reality, it may be impossible to prevent spontaneous outbreaks of massive partying. If you haven't already seen the silent majority in the streets, grilling hotdogs and grinning like fools, you'll see them now.

In short, a reboot has about as much in common with your common, or garden, revolution as a beautiful young woman has with a Gila monster. The two are, quite simply, opposites. Whether your reboot is the true Reaction, dear reader, or some improved model of your own design, please do not use that other R-word. For to describe it as soiled, is to describe shit as shitty.

Of course, the Reaction does not actually hand USG over to Chuck Norris's tender mercies. Not that I would object to any such thing. Just that I suspect better outcomes can be achieved. So let's rewind the tape, and remember that our little Vulcan nerve pinch is an engineering problem, not an action movie.

First, as political engineers - a discipline of nontrivial antiquity, much neglected in our time - we'll have to start by getting our terms straight.

Before the Reaction, sovereignty is held by the Modern Structure. After the Reaction, sovereignty is held by the New Structure. Its predecessor, renamed to connote its new status as museum furniture, becomes the Old Structure. The Procedure is so slow, the prospect of any New Structure so remote, that for now it's easy to just talk about the Structure.

(Please remember that that this term, despite its sick Logan's Run ring, is quite neutral. Every institution, sovereign or otherwise, has some decision structure by which it decides its actions. The term constitution, as in unwritten constitution, though synonymous, is easily confused with some capitalized formality. If a structure is poorly engineered, formal power and real power inevitably diverge over time, leaving the former as fraudulent camouflage - in Carlyle's simple word, a sham.

For instance, no sensible person could describe the Constitution of 1789, as now amended, as an accurate description of the process by which Washington, in 2009, makes decisions. But still, true if feeble sovereignty, the imperium maius, exists in Washington. It is held by the Committee of Nine, who dictate the Central Record. If you have never heard of these fine institutions and cannot remember whether or not they appear in Logan's Run, they are otherwise known as the Supreme Court and constitutional law. Neither has much to do with 1789.)

In our American Reaction, we're replacing the decision structure of USG. This is an inherently discontinuous transition. To make the change as clear as possible, the new USG will need a new name. Let's be unimaginative, and call it NUSG - versus OUSG. NUSG is to inherit all assets and liabilities of OUSG, and none of its decision structure. The transition is nondestructive, instantaneous, and unconditional, like any civilized change of management.

(I'll assume the sovereign being rebooted is USG. For one thing, USG is the only true sovereign in the world today. Even the independence of Russia and China is dubious. But for UR's readers overseas - if you want to be an independent country in the 21st century and you're not the United States of America, you need to do two things.

One: withdraw from the UN and other "international" institutions. These are actually American institutions - duh. By remaining in them, you're declaring that you remain one of America's outer provinces - client, satellite, and dependent of the Beltway, at least in some ideal future. You must make it clear that, to you, this future is dead as the Holy Roman Empire. Declare unilateral independence; revert your foreign relations to classical international law; equalize your balance of payments; expel all foreigners who are not tourists or businessmen. If America needs to talk, it has your email.

Two: restore your intellectual independence. A regime is not independent unless it can think for itself. Your bright, shiny New State needs a new history and a new economics for certain; even the hard sciences could use a good bit of auditing; and actual theological work is by no means out of the question. At present, you import all these commodities from America - specifically, Harvard. Some are good, others not so good. It is not worth your time to tell the difference. We must deal with Harvard, and we will; you can keep your smart young people at home and pay them to think and write. They will. Your nation's success depends on the extent to which they arrive at actual truth, rather than the old democratic nonsense or some new pile of wack.)

Of course, there's already a term for a complete transition of sovereignty: regime change. There's even is a term for an internally-initiated regime change. That term is coup, or (more Continentally) putsch. We resort to UR's customary weakness for invented doxology because, while every reboot is a coup or putsch, not every coup or putsch is a reboot.

And the Reaction is a reboot, but not every reboot is the Reaction. To be precise: the Reaction is a nondestructive and unconditional transition in sovereign control to a new decision structure which is secure, effective, and responsible.

Everyone to whom this sounds scary and awful, please raise your hand! See, it's not so bad. In plain English, all the Reaction does is toss out the present grinning, incompetent bastards and replace them with actual adult supervision. What could be simpler, or more desirable?

The only catch is that the Reaction has to work perfectly and on the first try. We're performing an unprecedented experiment on a hot, running sovereign. If it blows up - anything can happen.

Hitler, for instance. We may not have Hitler. We may not be Hitler. But we could clone Hitler! (And if the Russians have lost that skull fragment, we can back-breed a new race of Hitlers. Indeed, this has already been done - with cows.) Without any field-testing at all, with only one try to get it right, can we satisfy ourselves that the result of the Procedure will be actual sane government - and not Hitler?

Indeed we can. But not through hope, good thoughts and the power of positive thinking. There is only one dark, half-magical art that can produce reliable quality on the first try. It uses no newt blood at all. It is called engineering.

The Reaction is Hitler-free because its engineers the Hitler-phenomenon understand precisely, and to avoid it take precautions effective and redundant. Unlike Wernher von Braun, we at UR care where the rockets come down.

Rocket science is a perfect analogy. Every time NASA fires off some colossal shoulder of techno-pork to some random, godforsaken interplanetary destination, it ships one or two hundred custom widgets, each of which is designed to work perfectly on the first try. Often, all do. Sometimes, one or two fail. Then backups take over, and work a little less well.

Political engineering is rocket science, too. It demands no less cogency and care. In particular, romantic illusions are as misplaced in the political engineer's cubicle as a topless calendar in the gynecologist's office. The reactionary takes the biped as she is. Reality alone - bleak, elegant, mindless reality - is the null device on her black flag. Anyone who tells the truth, who believes her own lying eyes, who knows whereof the fsck she speaks, is in that moment as bitter and uncompromising a reactionary as ever put foot on the earth.

(The classical colors of reaction: black, white, and orange. In any tricolor pattern: red-white-black. A fleur-de-lys can't hurt, either, and St. George's Cross is not to be mocked.)

And best of all: we don't have to make it all up from scratch. Reactionary political engineering, in the spirit of Machiavelli, or Hobbes, or Filmer, or Dean Tucker, or Michels, or Jouvenel, or Burnham, is not an entirely lost art. We cannot obtain our dead white males' actual advice. But thanks to Google, everyone on earth owns their complete works to 1922. The reactionary may have no friends in real life, but the Balrogs in town are all on his side.

(Perhaps the best blueprint for reaction ever published was Daniel Defoe's Shortest-Way with the Dissenters, still a smashing read - we'll have these damned Puritans shipped to the Indies yet. (Defoe was a tricky fellow after my own heart. He too expects you to add your own salt.) But speaking of shipping and the West Indies, I would trust anything I heard from Admiral Semmes or Professor Froude over today's ad usum Delphini. If you follow these links, you'll see that UR's flavor of reaction is actually quite moderate.)

The essence of any 21st-century reaction is the unity of these two forces: the modern engineering mentality, the great historical legacy of antique, classical and Victorian pre-democratic thought. The adept, to achieve reactionary enlightenment, observes that both yield the same result. What can it be, but the truth for which all good men seek? Armed with this sure and fearless faith, the Reaction conquers all.

Dear reader, I admit it: nothing quite like the Reaction has ever happened. But why not try it anyway? Lots of things happen for the first time. Nothing quite like the world of 2009 has ever existed, either. The forces against you are unprecedented. So are those at your disposal.

Dear dedicated reactionary: can you really overthrow USG? It can't be easy, surely? It isn't easy. For one thing, I can't imagine it being done in less than 10 years. 25 is probably more realistic. Let's be safe, and call it 50. For another, by definition you can't replace a sovereign decision structure without someone shooting at you - either metaphorically, or actually.

And so what? As Švejk might have put it, regime change isn't as simple as taking a dump. It's not soft and easy to chew, like a hamburger, and it may not be as fun as lying on the beach in Coney Island. The Reaction demands balls and brains, prudence and pure craziness, both vast ambition and genuine humility. It will take you not months or years, but decades. Deal, or don't.

That said, let's jump right in to the Procedure. The Procedure comes in Three Steps:

I. Become worthy.
II. Accept power.
III. Rule!!1!

You think I'm kidding. But I'm not. Let's go straight to the -

First Step.

"Become worthy."
What could this possibly mean? Is it Zen? It sure sounds like Zen.

It is Zen to the bone, bitches. The First Step is the most difficult of the Three Steps. To be frank, it's quite possible that your Reaction will never make it past this step. It's more than possible. It's almost certain. But waste your time on the First Step - and what have you wasted?

Confucius said: to set the world in order, first set yourself in order. Nigga wasn't kidding, either. He may well have been reading Eugen Herrigel, who taught us that to release the arrow, one must first not-release the arrow. Fact: not even UR is as reactionary as Zen.

Another fact: if you show up for your first fencing class, they don't just hand you a bardiche. The Procedure too is dangerous. It too has its prerequisites, although it only has one.

Before you begin any positive work on the First Step, you must master the daunting spiritual discipline of passivism. This exercise itself may consume a lifetime. But with UR's simple and down-to-earth instructions, it will go much more quickly. You may even find that you have already completed it.

The steel rule of passivism is absolute renunciation of official power. We note instantly that any form of resistance to sovereignty, so long as it succeeds, is a share in power itself. Thus, absolute renunciation of power over USG implies absolute submission to the Structure.

The logic of the steel rule is simple. As a reactionary, you don't believe that political power is a human right. You will never convince anyone to adopt the same attitude, without first adopting it yourself. Since you believe others should be willing to accept the rule of the New Structure, over which they wield no power, you must be the first to make the great refusal. They must submit to the New; you must submit to the Old.

The reactionary's opinion of USG is that it is what it is. It is run by the people who run it. And at present, the present management may well be the best people in the world to run USG, and even if they're not he can't imagine what might be done about it - short of replacing the whole thing. This simple and final judgment, like the death penalty, admits no possible compromise.

In particular, passivism is to Gandhi as Gandhi is to Hitler. Hitler, before 1933, was a violent democratic activist; Gandhi was a nonviolent democratic activist. Passivism is not any sort of activism. Passivism is passivism. In plain English, you may not even begin to consider the rest of the Procedure until you have freed yourself entirely from the desire, built-in burden though it be of the two-legged ape, for power. Break the steel rule, change your name to "Darth," don't expect to keep your internship at the Jedi Council.

As a matter of both principle and tactics, the passivist rejects any involvement with any activity whose goal is to influence, coerce, or resist the government, either directly or indirectly. He is revolted by the thought of setting public policy. He would rather drink his own piss, than shift public opinion. He finds elections - national, state or local - grimly hilarious. And if he needs to get from Richmond to Baltimore, he drives through West Virginia.

The passivist has a term for democratic activism directed by the right against the left. That term is counter-activism. Passivism does not dispute the fact that counter-activism sometimes works. For instance, it worked for Hitler. (We'll say more about Hitler.) However, it only works in very unusual circumstances (such as those of Hitler), and is extremely dangerous when it does work (eg, the result may be Hitler).

In case this isn't crystal-clear, the steel rule precludes, in no particular order: demonstrations, press releases, suicide bombs, lawsuits, dirty bombs, Facebook campaigns, clean bombs, mimeographed leaflets, robbing banks, interning at nonprofits, assassination, "tea parties," journalism, bribery, grantwriting, graffiti, crypto-anarchism, balaclavas, lynching, campaign contributions, revolutionary cells, new political parties, old political parties, flash mobs, botnets, sit-ins, direct mail, monkeywrenching, and any other activist technique, violent or harmless, legal or illegal, fashionable or despicable.

As a broad analogy, the passivist's relationship to USG is much like the relationship of an American expatriate in Costa Rica, to the government of Costa Rica. He has no illusions about it. He submits to its authority in every detail. He is happy when it succeeds, and sad when it screws up. And he's about as likely to try to horn in on its decision structure as he is to move to Iran and run for Grand Ayatollah.

One excellent way to make this relationship concrete in your mind is to use the word "subject," rather than "citizen." If by some unfortunate coincidence you remain a resident of the British Isles, you are already taught to say "subject." So you'll have to shift to something even more demeaning, like "peasant." This may still overstate your political impact.

The steel rule has one exception that demonstrates the rule. As a passivist, you can still address direct, individual petitions to the sovereign - eg, calling your Congressman. Individual petition does not violate the steel rule because any petition from subject to sovereign is already a confession of abject submission. Only the powerless beg. The rite, of course, is ancient.

Voting is a borderline case for the passivist. Is it an aggressive act of defiance to refrain from voting - or does electoral participation constitute impermissible political intervention? Either way, you might be breaching the steel rule. Perhaps the most careful policy is to always vote for the candidate or measure that the newspapers expect to win, abstaining only in close contests.

But obviously, the impact of all votes of all passivists put together will be trivial. Or if it isn't, someone has been evading the steel rule, and the name no longer means itself. As a passivist, your vote is an irrelevant detail of personal conscience. It's improper to even mention it.

And obviously, in urgent matters of self-defence, the steel rule (and the entire Reaction) go out the window. The Procedure is a long and difficult preparation for future winter storms, to be started in spring's calm sunshine. If a freak May blizzard strikes in the First Step - if the midget race war breaks out - obviously, no one can blame you for resorting to more direct strategies.

And that's the steel rule. I don't think it gets much clearer. But, um - why?

Why, exactly, are you a passivist? You thought you were trying to seize power. But here you are, renouncing it irrevocably! What's up with that?

Ah. But there is no contradiction at all.

Passivism is Zen. It is non-Zen. It is counterintuitive and romantic. It is trivial and cold-blooded. It is deeply principled and tactically deadly. Passivism is only the first step of the First Step - but its spirit informs the entire Reaction. Let's take a quick peek ahead, and see why.

In the First Step, passivism is a no-brainer. Why should you be interested in influencing OUSG? You're trying to replace the Structure, not join it.

Even in the precarious and impossible Second Step, the steel rule should hold. In the Second Step, you do not seize power. You accept power. As we'll see, it's totally different. And even if this bold assertion is not perfectly validated, your long and rigid training in the steel rule will help you guard your soul from any inadvertent or unavoidable contact with the plutonium.

Some lingering contamination is acceptable - because in the Third Step, you relinquish any power you may have held. Undivided personal authority is achieved. Someone reigns. But that someone is not you, nor anyone else associated with the Reaction. Sorry! Perhaps there's some other coup that would suit you better.

Thus, passivism is no obstacle to any of the Three Steps. With this obvious objection disposed, we can look at the four major tactical benefits of passivism. I'm sure there are more than four - but these four should be enough.


First tactical benefit: the passivist immediately drops off the Structure's defensive radar screen. While it must at all times be kept in mind that the Structure is not a conspiracy and has no star topology, it can be described as the organization of all those corrupted by power. If there is one thing these people understand, it is activism - the art of controlling USG from outside its formal boundaries. It is their art. And they sure don't like it when it's turned against them.

If there is one thing progressives are good at, it is identifying and targeting a competing activist who is attempting, futilely as we have seen above, to out-mafia the mafia. Right-wing activism acts as a sort of adjuvant to the Structure's immune system. It activates every possible defense mechanism. Some of which are really quite nasty.

Since the Left is now thoroughly in control of the State's bone marrow, there is only one way for the Right to evade quick, efficient destruction by its T-cells: avoid deploying any surface protein that the Left recognizes. The Left's own weapons are trivial members of this set. And this is why counter-activism is basically a bad idea.

What does the difference between activism and passivism look like in practice? Let's take blogging. Obviously, in a democracy or anything like it, a blog is a political weapon. But the correct tactics for activist and passivist blogs differ.

The activist blog, which seeks power through democratic means, must seek to build an intellectual clientela of the largest possible size. Unique reader count is the best possible metric for the success of an activist blog. Naturally, anyone who reads blog X has that much less time to read blog Y, so X and Y, activist blogs, must be competitive. And obviously, anyone who seeks power must seek to take it away from someone else - activism is inherently aggressive.

The passivist blog does not seek power by any means at all. Its activities are neither aggressive nor destructive, but constructive (ideally leading into a reaction center, as we'll see later). Therefore, it is concerned not with the number of people who read it, but with the quality of people who read it. If it takes the next step and becomes a reaction center, its construction workers must be found among this motley crew.

Result: a counter-activist blog, if it achieves any success, will automatically (a) be identified by the T-cells as a dangerous, quasi-fascist Internet cult, and (b) attract a clientela who live up to exactly this dossier. Either way, any further effectiveness is precluded.

Whereas the passivist blog will appear, at worst, harmless and extremely strange. There's something going on here, Mr. Jones. But you don't know what it is - do you, Mr. Jones? As an existential enemy of USG, the reactionary may well deserve some immune attention. But he won't get it, and he is quite happy with that.

True fact: the author of UR has received over 7 zillion very interesting emails, all of which deserve responses, often long, that most have not received (but will). Number of hostile communications received, in over two years of blogging: zero. One can ascribe this result to many hypothesis, not all flattering, but I put it down to passivism.


Second tactical benefit: the problem isn't just that stimulating the left's immune system is harmful to the right. If it was harmful to the left as well, that might be tactically acceptable.

But since leftism is a decentralized movement, not a centralized conspiracy, stimulating the left's immune system just means stimulating the left. So the counter-activist loses on both sides of the equation. He brings hell on himself, and he donates energy to the Death Star.

In case this isn't obvious, let me digress for a moment, and illustrate it. I am not sure most conservative (counter-activists by definition) understand their place in the progressive psyche.

One of the best ways to sample the evil Sith energy of the leftosphere is to take a deep breath, summon up your inner Herakles, and perform the Augean labor of reading the purest, nastiest, most Vyshinskyesque progressive blogs you can find. Sample the baths of clear venom that ooze from the scaly, withered lips of la Hamster. Incline your pate before the government philosophers of the well-named Crooked Timber. Or suffer all the vices of both in one, with Brad DeLong.

It matters what these people think. They exist, and they are powerful. If you want to live in the present tense, you have to decide whether you want to serve as fuel for their hate machine.

In your tour de Left, you'll notice many oozing zombie wounds and heinous, glowing Ringwraith "tells." The varieties of adaptive propaganda are uncountable. However, one of the most common tropes you'll notice is a willingness to excuse self-serving ethical deviations through arguments tu quoque. This is one of the major metabolic reactions of the progressive movement. Basically, dear conservative, your struggle is its food. Without you, it dies.

In the tu-quoque mindset, any form of resistance to progressive government is defined as naked, illegitimate aggression. It naturally produces a counterreaction which is just as aggressive, often more unprincipled, and always much stronger. A fine example is the complete extirpation of the pre-Buckleyite American right, which repaid McCarthyism ten dollars on the dime. If you imagine an America in which Communism suffered the same fate as McCarthyism, you imagine a very, very different America.

Perhaps the most diabolical instance of this Poland-invades-Germany syndrome was the legal-realist movement, which in the 20th century converted the Anglo-American common law from asset to liability. The legal realist reasons as follows: the vast right-wing conspiracy (TM) does not really believe in natural law and textual interpretation, but is a big liar and legislates from the bench for reasons personal, venal, or conspiratorial. Therefore, we, the Left, are suckers if we don't fight just as dirty and spin just as hard.

Qui vult decipi, decipiatur. As Voltaire said, if you can make a man believe absurdities, you can make him commit atrocities. The VRWC is really no more or less absurd than its Jewish counterpart. There are no Elders of Zion, and nobody dances on Halliburton's strings. But there is a Left, though it is a movement rather than a conspiracy. And the Left, in power, must pretend to contend against some great, imagined enemy, which it naturally models on itself.

Ie: there is a Structure. There is no counter-Structure. But the leftist, knowing his own world, finds it very easy to visualize a symmetric and opposite edifice in loving and fabulous detail. In a word: he projects. It's only human.

For example, one thing I always had trouble understanding about the history of World War II is why Japan never attacked the Soviet Union. Clearly, Japan and Germany could easily have defeated Russia by attacking from both sides, splitting Eurasia between the Axis. Or at least, this is an obvious strategy given the ad usum Delphini version of this historical event.

So why didn't it happen? The simple answer is that there was never any such entity as "the Axis," at least not in the sense that there existed "the Allies." The former imaginary entity was a pure product of fascist propaganda organs, whose opposite numbers were happy to play along. In reality, "the Axis" was three separate countries - Japan, Germany, and Italy - neither of which really trusted each other at all, but had put their names together on a treaty or two. Given that all parties to these pacts were on the record as considering all treaties worthless scraps of paper, we know exactly what they were worth in private.

Nothing like the joint military planning of the Allies existed between the Axis. There was no great plan to create a Nazi South America, a Japanese Australia, etc, etc. And there was very little to suggest to the Japanese that, in the long run, they would come out better if they added another enemy to their war. After all, Japan was already fighting an obviously losing battle for its life against the US.

Thus, the standard terminology of the war is an exact inverse of the reality. The Allies were an axis, cooperating ruthlessly and efficiently; the Axis was an alliance, cooperating grudgingly and without trust. The Allies were the Empire; the Axis were the rebels. The Axis never had a real plan for world domination, whereas the Allies had it figured out long before. Again, projection. (And note that this structural analysis tells us nothing about the relative goodness or badness of either side.)

This inversion is a permanent feature of the leftist optical system. The leftist, in all times, of all races, in all nations, is really, genuinely convinced that the right, although evil rather than good, works exactly like the left. Except more so, of course.

The left is one vast alliance - proverbially, a leftist sees no enemies to the left, and no friends to the right. So doesn't the rightist see no friends to the left, and no enemies to the right? The left has a party line. Doesn't the right? The left is full of people who have obviously mortgaged their souls for power. But isn't the right?

For example, it's very easy to excuse the relationship between Bill Ayers and Barack Obama, when you realize that Dick Cheney is a longstanding personal friend of Klaus Barbie.

If you actually know anything about the American right, you realize that it is a tiny pimple on the ass of the American left. For one thing, the right has no Rockefeller or Carnegie or Guggenheim. (It had a Pew and a Ford, but the money was stolen.) On the right, the most blatant acts of desperate corruption, extracting the most grudging of contributions from the most disreputable of sources, yield a tiny, sporadic creek of cash, like the dribble of an 85-year-old man.

Whereas on the left, heaven pisses money like an African bull elephant. You'll see this pattern whenever you compare the two apples-to-apples - for example, compare the funding for anti-green research to the funding for pro-green research. Or compare the political affiliation of celebrities, a fine proxy for the feelings of the ultra-rich.

But thanks to constant, near-unconscious bombardment with evidence of a vast right-wing conspiracy, the progressive mind is the eternal slave of an imaginary golem. Quite a percentage of the binding energy of progressive activism consists of man's strongest emotional glue: fear. Just as with anti-Semitism, no invention is needed to create this nightmare - just magnification.

Like the Republican of 1859, the Democrat of 2009 is genuinely convinced that he is defending his tribal village from a vast onslaught of ruthless, pitchfork-wielding Huns, all trained to chant and march in lockstep at the synagogue of Satan. Against so barbaric and deviation a foe, any hesitation is fatal; any mercy is a crime; any scruple is tantamount to suicide. Therefore, Han must shoot first.

Do I have that right, libs? Of course, what your lib does not realize that, since his cause is advancing, his opponent's must therefore be reversing. Therefore, Euclid tells us that he is attacking and his foe is retreating. A strange thing, this retrograde aggression! Progress convicts itself, through its own name.

The terrifying Jesus monster you see, libs, is quite real. It is a small house spider of the genus Suburbia - species, minivanii. Stay out of its hair, and it will stay out of yours. Otherwise, it might bite you, and you might get a small, itchy spot.

It's true that massive, deadly arachnids in this family are found in the fossil record. It's also true that they've been shrinking steadily for the last 30 million years. You might well be face-to-face with a living fossil. Anything can happen. But first, look without your reading glasses. I suspect you may have the magnification set too high.

Take an example: where was gay marriage in 1979? The era of Anita Bryant and the Briggs Amendment? Of the Hard Hat Riot? Dear progressive, you can hardly admit that progress hasn't happened - by your own definition.

But this means your cause is going forward and your foe's is going backward, which means you are attacking and he is retreating. So shouldn't it be the spider who's afraid of you, not you who's afraid of the spider? I know I am beating a dead horse here. But you probably have friends who haven't seen the light yet, dear reactionary. Try this one out on them.

And to get back to the point: fear is seldom found on its own. It almost always generates another emotion. That emotion is hate. Living in San Francisco, I have seen plenty of both fear and hate. But one thing I haven't seen much of is: hate in the absence of fear.

Since, as all external observers can agree, the progressive movement is largely held together by hate, active resistance from the right is not just a waste of effort. It actually contributes to the left's metabolism. I am not the first to notice this: call it the Dabney effect.

If the Dabney effect is feeding the parasite, cutting off the Dabney effect can only starve the parasite. Thus, passivism should in theory act as a kind of antibiotic or chemotherapy against the left. Or if you prefer sports metaphors, it's just the old Rick Mahorn move of pulling the chair. Mr. Mahorn was not renowned for his overall gentleness in the post position.

It's even possible that if the entire conservative side of the fence could somehow convert itself to passivism, a prospect which is of course inconceivable, progressivism would lose too much energy to continue existing. It would reach its Roche limit, so to speak, and collapse of collective apathetic sclerosis like its cousin, Communism. (Think of what the Kremlin would have paid for a tame opposition which was credible, loyal, often irritating, and never dangerous.)

The alternative, of course, is to crank up the activism until the 85-year-old man actually outpisses the bull elephant. The belief that this has a chance of working sits oddly with the general tragic vision of the conservative. It is not the only such inconsistency.

Moreover, if counter-activism somehow actually does work, we arrive at the converse of our third benefit. That is, of course: Hitler. While successful counter-activism might not always produce Hitler, we cannot avoid the fact that it did produce Hitler. Thus...


Third tactical benefit: Hitler prevention. To an orthodox reactionary, Hitler is basically the poster child for what happens if you break the steel rule. Fascism is reaction, but laced with cancerous tumors of democracy - "right-wing populism," as people say these days. If it loses it loses; if it wins, the tumors grow. An improvement on Communism, but not much of one.

Just about all of Hitler's shtick, right down to the name of his party, was ripped off from the Left. Who introduced nationalism to the Continent of Europe? The Hapsburgs, or Garibaldi? Under this camouflage, which never convinced anyone with a college education, Nazism was never in any way leftist. Rather, it was a demotic corruption of the old Prussian tradition.

Even before WWI, the tradition of Frederick had become heavily contaminated with romantic-populist jingoism. By the '30s, the German right was armed with all the nastiest brass-knuckles that the international left could supply. Everything evil that the Nazis ever did, the Bolsheviks had done first. Everything there was to learn from George Creel, Goebbels knew.

Contra Jonah Goldberg, even contra Kuehnelt-Leddihn (whose jockstrap Goldberg is not fit to carry), Hitler was not a leftist. He was a rightist. Leftism is like a club: you can't just say you're a leftist, and be one. You have to actually be accepted into the club. You have to be part of the Left, and if you're not you are part of the Right - ie, the set of all those competing, unjustly of course, with the Left.

On a social network graph, it's very obvious who is and who isn't. And National Socialism was never, ever part of the graph. It had very few friends, connected very weakly, in the US and Britain. Compare it to Leninism, and you'll see the difference instantly. Hitler and I are not in the club, and nor are you - and if you are, you won't be for long.

(Since the Right is a negative set, unorganized by definition, rightists cannot be expected to share any consistent pattern of attributes, or to cooperate effectively on any positive project. Thus, they tend to lose - an almost infallible historical marker of rightism.)

Since most people are neither historians nor philosophers, the fact that Hitler was on the extreme Right, and this Reaction is also on the extreme Right, raises some natural concerns. Again: the only way to face these concerns is to (a) provide a complete engineering explanation of Hitler, and (b) include an effective anti-Hitler device in our design.

The reactionary's basic answer to the Hitler Question is the Law of Sewage. (This is not my invention, but I don't know where I got it. Heinlein, perhaps?) The Law is: if you put a drop of wine in a barrel of sewage, you get sewage. If you put a drop of sewage in a barrel of wine, you get sewage. You'll find that this rule applies perfectly to many fields of human endeavor.

Thus, Nazism contains a great deal of reactionary wisdom, because those who created it were quite familiar with the old Continental tradition of government. However, the Nazi movement originated as a democratic political party. Thus Nazism combined the venom of democracy with the experience and efficiency of Prussia, an understandably dangerous combination.

The mixture, again, was sewage - and I say that as one who has plowed through both Sven Hedin's Germany and World Peace, and Cesare Santoro's Hitler Germany. (Margherita Sarfatti's 1925 life of Mussolini, though, is not entirely unentertaining.) The best fascist work of the '30s I've found is British: Francis Yeats-Brown's European Jungle. The best Nazi memoir may be Reinhard Spitzy's How We Squandered the Reich. But none of this is saying a lot. Here at UR, our diligence is your indolence.

You can say one thing for Hitler, at least the young Hitler. He was successful. 1933 in Germany was a real reboot - as was 1945 in Germany. (Here at UR, we feel free to learn from both. Wine will be found in either barrel, as will sewage. The mix goes in the test tube, not in your mouth.)

But 1933 was a revolution, not a reaction - just as wine mixed with sewage is sewage. Like all 20th-century regimes, the Third Reich controlled its subjects by seducing them with the mirage of mass political power. As Robert Michels had already explained, "the people," by any name, can never hold power. Power is held by an oligarchy at most. Whether Nazi Germany was more monarchical or more oligarchical can be debated, but it certainly embraced the principle of popular sovereignty. The classical monarchy and the 20th-century one-party state are very different political forms.

How does this work in practice? In practice, an activist policy attracts supporters because humans (of all races, alas) are apes, and apes are attracted to power. Typically the activist's superego explains this in terms of the noble goals which he will achieve with said power. (These noble goals are generally found to include making other apes dependent on him.) His good old ape ego, however, is attracted to the work - the feeling of collectively struggling for power.

This is where passivism, by abjuring democracy, vaccinates itself against Hitler. True: at a higher level, the reactionary seeks to cause a transition in power, and thus in a sense seeks power itself. But he is not an activist, because he is not working for power. His actions do not excite the human political instinct, the love for forming coalitions and tearing hell out of the apes across the river.

For one thing, said actions bear no resemblance to normal politics. For another, they cannot bring any actual power to the actors, even if they succeed. Which, however likely, must remain intuitively implausible - if not laughable. And thus the project of reaction does not attract those with a real taste for power, which if nothing else is very un-Nazi-like.

In fact, since Nazism violates the first two tactical advantages of passivism, we can wonder how it managed to work at all. Yet again, Hitler is the exception that demonstrates the rule. Yes: using activist tactics, Hitler rebooted Germany, although not cleanly. But why did these tactics work for Hitler? And why have they not worked, or come even close to working, for anyone since Hitler? Ponder that, John Tyndall.

My guess is that counter-activism worked for Hitler, and Fascists in general, because they came to power in a society that still contained the carcass of an ancien regime. Wilhelmine Germany still existed beneath the surface of Weimar. Principles, traditions, and even many institutions remained intact. For example, the Weimar judiciary was notoriously indulgent to right-wing hoodlums. Try that today, kids.

Thus, in the 21st century, Hitler is exactly what he is supposed to be - a lesson in what not to do. First, lacking said carcass, any modern adaptation of Nazi techniques is a certain passport to fail. Second, even if it works, you end up with Hitler. In fact, I'm sure Hitler himself, who as a politician was just as practical as he was visionary (yes, I've also read Hitler - go for the Table-Talk, skip Mein Kampf), would endorse the first point. He would certainly find neo-Nazism of every flavor pathetic - much as he laughed at, say, Alfred Rosenberg.

Because Hitler - like Boromir, had Boromir been a little Jew-hating faggot - attempted to oppose democracy with its own foul arts, because he gazed into the Volk and the Volk gazed into him, and especially because he at first succeeded in this black design, evil crept into Germany. Ultimately, the Third Reich is best classified among the many strange, dark epiphenomena of the cult of the People. Chalk it up to the 20th century.


Fourth tactical benefit: passivism allows the Reaction to recruit both progressives and conservatives - so long as they abandon their activist programs. Tactically, this may be so obvious that it merits no discussion at all. But this is UR, so let's say a little bit.

Needless to say, regardless of the passivist's personal background, the steel rule bars any political affiliation with either "red-state" or "blue-state" sides of the "culture war." How is this a tactical advantage? Two armies of rabid, determined, frothing-at-the-mouth cadres are available - and the passivist chooses - neither?

As we understand quite well here at UR, "red" and "blue," Amerikaner and Brahmin, are no more and no less than the two main branches of American Protestant democracy. Anyone's cultural roots are permanent - you can take the boy out of Brooklyn, but you can't take Brooklyn out of the boy. But identifying politically with one side of a tribal conflict is a very different thing. And it may be the most spectacular way to flame out on the First Step.

(I mean: what are these people even thinking? A religious conflict can end with the eradication of one side or another. There are certainly a number of progressives who would like to eradicate conservatism. Which strikes me as a little drastic, but if it's voiced honestly, one can respect it. It's rather inconsistent with certain other progressive beliefs, but hey - nobody's perfect. And what do conservative activists think will happen to progressivism, and how? I have never quite been able to discern this.)

It should be obvious that any responsible management will instantly shift USG to a posture of strict cultural neutrality, allowing both competing communities - Amerikaner and Brahmin - to live peacefully according to their own principles and preferences, and cleanly divesting both of their political aspirations. It will certainly not invest a single cent or breath in turning Amerikaners into Brahmins, or Brahmins into Amerikaners, or even in forcing the two to live as next-door neighbors in harmony as brothers forever. If this isn't adult supervision, what is?

Of course, there's no way to avoid the fact that in USG as she is today, it's the Brahmins who hold the stick, and the Amerikaners who get its short end in the tail. Inside the Beltway, it's always Giuliani time for the flyover states. The only question is how deep the plunger plunges.

In the reactionary's book, the cure for this awful, degenerate scenario is not to give the Amerikaners more political power, but to remove all political power from both Brahmins and Amerikaners. After democracy, they no longer have any way to fight. Remaining belligerent pretensions become comical, the nasty political arms of their respective theologies atrophy, turn black and fall off, neither has to drink the other's beer, and the common decency of both sides, despite the insufferable, naive pomposity of the Brahmins and the irreparable boorish ignorance of the Amerikaners, reasserts itself. Reaction can only succeed as a movement of national unity.

Again, the long-term tactical potential of this peace should be self-evident. It offers a decent deal to both sides of the war. In exchange for abandoning the hopeless dream of resistance, Amerikaners get to feel what life is like without constant colonic splinters. In exchange for abandoning the sadistic thrill of domination, Brahmins get to feel what life is like without the constant fear that Jesus is about to capture Washington and turn NPR over to Pat Robertson. All sing "Kumbaya" and "Dixie," agree to disagree, the farce is over, and the show is cancelled.

Once again, this ending is a long way away. Traditionalist religious conservatives, in particular, should consider this: what traditionalist sects in America have been most successful in preserving their values and society? Answer: probably a tie, between the Pennsylvania Dutch and the Brooklyn Chasidim. What do both these communities have in common? In a word: passivism. To survive, submit and adapt. To be destroyed, try to fight back.


Thus we see the tactical power of the steel rule. I'd like to think the Baron de Batz would approve. If the moral principle doesn't convince you, the tactics should.

We will now assume that the steel rule is indelibly engraved in your soul. With your qi fully charged, your brain laundered and your spiritual center centered, we can talk about what to do. Boldly, you stride forward on your quest - which will continue next week.

118 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

There's even is a term for an internally-initiated regime change. That term is coup, or (more Continentally) putsch.

Um, coup d'etat is a "continental" term, too. Germany is not "more continental" than France.

Rocket science is a perfect analogy. Every time NASA fires off some colossal shoulder of techno-pork to some random, godforsaken interplanetary destination, it ships one or two hundred custom widgets, each of which is designed to work perfectly on the first try.

This analogy does not fill me with confidence, based on NASA's track record...

September 3, 2009 at 5:11 AM  
Blogger TGGP said...

Let's try true communism. I know attempting to create communism produced Stalin last time, but you see I've got all these pamphlets in which I explain how we can be sure to get it right this time!

If the left feeds on the right, then why is it stronger in Europe, where the right is weaker?

A much better argument for passivism is Patri Friedman's Beyond Folk Activism.

Also, you're being inconsistent in your terminology by saying the 1933 Germany was both a reboot and a revolution, since you previously said they were mutually exclusive. That's the problem with continually making up new words.

September 3, 2009 at 7:35 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I guess I'm an internet newb but I had not encountered Crooked Timber until you linked to it now. Then I spent 20 minutes reading the comments on a post re: McArdle's healthcare policy disagreements with one of the authors. Now I'll be the first to admit that McArdle is to principled libertarianism as Moldbug is to utilitarianism, but the comments are something to observe and be amazed at. One was essentially: There is an essay published in xxx that proves libertarian principles leads to justification of a massive welfare state. QED.

It is like a blog for religious scholars who think St. Anselm's ontological argument constitutes irrefutable proof, and so the only serious and valid discussion to be had is how to present the argument in the smallest number of words possible.

This is what happens when DailyKOS kids take philosophy classes I guess. I've added it to my blog list.

September 3, 2009 at 7:57 AM  
Anonymous Devin Finbarr said...

TGGP-

There were many attempts at communism/socialism that did not end up with Stalin. The problem with communism is that even under the most ideal conditions, such as a peaceful upstate New York commune, it still sucks and people vote with their feet to leave, or vote with their hands to convert it into a normal property rights system.

September 3, 2009 at 8:07 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It is said that either you can understand your enemy, or yourself. But that doesn't guarantee that you understand even one. This interpretation of the left as a self-choosing and/or united club would no doubt surprise many on the left, some of whom might perceive the right in the same way. It is a very natural thing to receive your enemy as united (since the important thing is how they differ from you) and your own side as disconnected (since they also differ from you).

September 3, 2009 at 8:13 AM  
Blogger nazgulnarsil said...

this post reminded me of Memoirs Found in a Bathtub.

September 3, 2009 at 8:20 AM  
Blogger G. M. Palmer said...

From what I can tell, the seasteading community does not think that it will be on the receiving end of a Left-allergic-response.

MM (in calling for passivity) would appear to think they will (or might).

To clarify:

If a permanent sea-stead is built by and occupied with US (or former US) citizens, it will appear to USG as a protest and challenge to sovereignty and be treated as such (like with bombs and propaganda at home).

Patri doesn't think so.
MM might.
I do.

Thoughts?

September 3, 2009 at 8:24 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wow, being a reactionary seems way less badass when you make it sound like being a Shinto Buddhist Jehovah's Witness.

September 3, 2009 at 8:27 AM  
Blogger nazgulnarsil said...

Palmer: Seasteading is a moot point. the only question is whether a AI, bioengineering, or our own social structures will kill us first.

If we're really *REALLY* lucky we'll all be in a nice petting zoo in 50 years.

September 3, 2009 at 8:41 AM  
Blogger Alrenous said...

G.M. Palmer,

The first time I saw an anarchist proposal, my immediate reaction was that "If America went anarchist, Canada would invade the week after." Sample rallying cry; "Healthcare for the poor victims of political disaster!"

If seasteading actually managed to take off, it might not be bombed, but it would certainly somehow be destroyed. Sample rallying cry; "Stop the spread of child porn!" Or terrorist monies, or whatever plausible lie survives.
Or discredited: the state funds a fleet of similar ships and lets them be slums. Press plays up those ships and ignores the Dubai++ ships. The toolbox is heavy.


The rest of my comment appears on my blog. Summary of topics:

The junta's dictionary shows signs of weakness. Why do they care about hair lengths?

It really, really doesn't matter if you vote or not.

The steel rule has consistency issues, but the idea that reactionary reboot doesn't put any reactionaries in the big chair seems like it has mileage.

Cultural and religious neutrality is best achieved by prosecuting crimes and nothing else. Swastikas everywhere? Well, if you WANT to put up an 'investigate me' sign, be my guest. If you actually do something wrong, like murder a jew, it'll just make it easier to convict - for murder, not 'hate crimes.'

On Crooked Timber: studying a new way to be evil seems like kind of a waste of time. Holbo's a total d-bag, though, not that McArdle has any idea what she's talking about.

September 3, 2009 at 8:52 AM  
Blogger G. M. Palmer said...

AngmarAragorn,

I have a hard time countenancing the chicken-little aspect of "the singularity."

Likewise, bioengeneering (even of humans) is such a limited-access item that unless there are secret Crichton-esque warehouses ready to crank out dinos or newhumans by the thousands, I think there will likely be a backlash/protective efforts before things "get out of hand." I could be wrong, but I think that all the singularity/transhuman folks are simply in love with their own tinkering.

Now, social structures killing us? Yes, that's a non-trivial problem if there ever was one.

But that's what seasteading and The Reaction are trying to solve, no?

September 3, 2009 at 8:53 AM  
Blogger Alrenous said...

Alas, despite the 'preview' option, the link doesn't actually do anything.

September 3, 2009 at 8:55 AM  
Blogger TGGP said...

Anonymous September 3, 2009 8:13 AM:
Don't comment as anonymous, make up a handle even if it's just "Anon 2" or
something.

It is a very natural thing to receive your enemy as united (since the important thing is how they differ from you) and your own side as disconnected (since they also differ from you)
Exactly a point I was trying to make in a previous post here.


Patri has said three things are off-limits for Seasteads if they want governments to leave them alone: exporting (rather than merely facilitating recreational use) drugs, banking and nuclear weapons. His first for-profit seastead is supposed to make use of medical tourism.

September 3, 2009 at 9:28 AM  
Blogger G. M. Palmer said...

tdoublegp

He's got to make it four -- sex trade (because won't somebody think of the children?).

In response to folk activism, I know New Hampshire is all 1337 and shit, but why Free State Project?

Why not Free City Project? It would be much cheaper than seasteading -- even if a city were built from the ground up.

It happens in Florida all the time but the HOAs don't seem to be interested in libertarian/reactionary values.

September 3, 2009 at 9:36 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

In exchange for abandoning the sadistic thrill of domination, Brahmins get to feel what life is like without the constant fear that Jesus is about to capture Washington and turn NPR over to Pat Robertson.

Progressives will obviously say, "Why should we quit? We're winning, and our cause is noble!"

September 3, 2009 at 9:37 AM  
Anonymous josh said...

Passivity is tough business. Let me tell you how I spent my morning.

I teach US history and Government at a public school, and I attended one of our regular county-wide "in-service" training workshops. The program began with a very special guest, the author of a book called "funny in Farsi". Wherein she describes her life, growing up in California and her unfortunate encounters with the wrong kind of white people. Although, she is "not a practicing Muslim" and she "would be killed if she returned to Iran" she doesn't understand how so many people can "have such hatred in their hearts." She thinks "the media tries to create a negative image of the middle east." Indeed. Many a reference to the vast right-wing conspiracy. Do I have to the level of reverence afforded this woman by the audience?

Next we broke into smaller groups of around 20 teachers to participate in "training". Mine was "demonstrating diplomacy in the classroom" presented by none other than your United States State Department. I sat listening to two teachers discussing the recent health care debates, "The republicans never said anything when Bush ran up these HUGE deficits", quoqued one. After a while, the program started, we were given a packet of background information regarding over fishing in the federal states of micronesia (who as the packet informed us, gained independance in 1979, however they recieved 100 million from the US in 2008 and and the US is responsible for military protection) and were told we would be participating in a simulation.

I was assigned the role of representing the fsm. Other interested parties were, "Japan", Your United States State Department, the UN fishing committee or somesuch thing. I ask you, what was I supposed to do? The passive choice would have been to tell the US to make it 200 mill and a new, no better make that an old Cadillac, and the beach and surrounding water is theirs.

Instead, I declared unilateral independence, set up a joint stock company, hired Steve Jobs, etc. Was I giving them amunition, probably. However, I was reasonably convincing (it helped that I was probably the smartest person in the room, school teachers are lesser, lesser Brahmin.) I identified that problem, explained why they were incapable of solving it, illustrated the success record of State, the post-war diplomat, and defended without ever mentioning specifically colonial style government.

Now, everything in Mencius essay today seems to make sense, but I have to say, hitting people with (mostly correct) arguments that they had never heard before and had no response for was freaking fun! I guess what I am saying is, I am not worthy. Its freaking hard to be worthy. Is it even possible?

September 3, 2009 at 10:34 AM  
Blogger Studd Beefpile said...

TGGP> Think Venn Diagrams. A re-boot replaces the people who run the state. The revolution attempts to forcibly remake all of society. You can have a revolution without a reboot (e.g. Deng Xiaoping), a reboot without a revolution (e.g. Pinochet) or a combination (e.g. the French or Russian Revolutions). Mencius is advocating a reboot without a revolution.

Of course, this is impossible. Far too many people believe in democracy for such a thing to happen without some sort of revolution. Forget the mob, too many of the rich and powerful (such as the people who run the security forces) buy into the myth. Even if neo-cameralism is the ideal system, you can't get there from here.

September 3, 2009 at 11:33 AM  
Anonymous josh said...

Isn't it a major flaw that you essentially need all the townies to essentially outsmart the system. They are constantly told to participate, they can tell how the ruling class feels about them, and it makes them feel good to shout back. How is any of this going to change. If it doesn't, don't you have your permanent phony opposition appearing dumber than a box of rocks.

September 3, 2009 at 11:42 AM  
Blogger G. M. Palmer said...

Josh,

"Lesser, lesser Brahmins" for sure.

I thought Mencius was saying we should do exactly what you did -- spread good information. That being the exception that proves the rule.

Or maybe that's just my Dunbar brain talking. . .

September 3, 2009 at 11:48 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Interesting. After going through the requiste college-age flirtation with liberalism, and subsequently rebelling against it with a fervent conservatism, I find I have fallen into being a near zen-master level passivist for the past decade or so.

Of course, you can't call it "passivism" -- that's too weak to ever be accepted. I refer to it as "living Personally, not Politcally." It makes it sound like you have found a way to live a rich, full life without engaging in their petty squables. And you have.

September 3, 2009 at 12:07 PM  
Anonymous Leonard said...

"passivism" [is] too weak to ever be accepted.

That's why it's really, really Zen. Perhaps a better name would be "pussyism". If you can admit to being a pussy (politically speaking), then you may be ready to Accept Power. Otherwise, you have not really made the change, and you'll be agitating and organizing like a vegetarian feminist pacifist at the slightest sign of reaction.

September 3, 2009 at 12:38 PM  
Blogger juantblanco said...

Well, I just got back from failing my Turing Test but this post seems to me to be very close to what is suggested by a book entitled _Ride the Tiger: A Survival Manual for the Aristocrats of the Soul_. Here's a quote from Wik:

"This restriction must be kept in mind. What I am about to say does not concern the ordinary man of our day. On the contrary, I have in mind the man who finds himself involved in today's world, even at its most problematic and paroxysimal points; yet he does not belong inwardly to such a world, nor will he give in to it. He feels himself, in essence, as belonging to a different race from that of the overwhelming majority of his contemporaries."
--Julius Evola

But, of course, Evola is an Idealistic Traditionalist rather than a paleo-libertarian/ neo-cameralist.

September 3, 2009 at 12:38 PM  
Anonymous Stirner said...

Inactivism?

Moldbug seems to be steering towards a quasi-Taoist "wu-wei" type of doing without doing.

In a previous thread, others have mentioned how Moldy's formalism resembles Chinese Legalist philosophy (i.e. Han Fei Tzu). The First Emperor of China sure knew how to neutralize the Cathedral of his day.

September 3, 2009 at 12:39 PM  
Anonymous Heel said...

In a previous thread, others have mentioned how Moldy's formalism resembles Chinese Legalist philosophy (i.e. Han Fei Tzu). The First Emperor of China sure knew how to neutralize the Cathedral of his day.

note that Mao was into Legalism.

Legalism and a Mao or a Stalin or a Hitler aren't mutually exclusive.

September 3, 2009 at 1:46 PM  
Anonymous Brett said...

"Exactly a point I was trying to make in a previous post here."

TGGP, are you Robin Hanson?

September 3, 2009 at 1:47 PM  
Blogger TGGP said...

I am not Hanson, I just didn't bother to go look back to the comment where I linked to that Overcoming Bias before. As I recollect now though, I think I actually did that in response to MM in my continuation of the GNXP thread "wars we know". There's a decent chance I also linked to it here at UR, since its a somewhat old OB post and possibly the most important one there.

MM's previous Venn Diagram made resets and revolutions disjoint sets. I complained then that his difference between the two was that he approved of the former, so that Hitler's coming to power was an attempt at a reset that failed (though I don't think he called it a revolution). And speaking of fascists and progressive social circles, Mussolini clearly qualifies as an ordained leftist. He may be considered an apostate though.

Deng Xiaoping's reforms were actually fairly gradual, which has been given as one reason for their success. After an initial period of what he acknowledged as incompetent governance, Pinochet invited some "Chicago Boys" to remake the society Allende had been turning socialist. Those changes have endured (though admittedly many of Allende's have as well) as part of the small-c constitution of Chile. Bryan Caplan gives it as an example of escape from the "idea trap". I believe Pinochet killed large numbers of political opponents throughout the whole period though. The French Revolution provides an interesting contrast to the American one, with some not deeming the latter to be a revolution at all. That's why Burke opposed the former despite his support for independence. MM holds with Rothbard's Whiggish radical take on the revolution. I disagree and think Tom Woods (as well as Kuehnelt-Leddihn) is right to characterize it as a secession by local elites intended to preserve their traditional privileges.

MM here talks about the importance of high quality commenters. I don't feel like linking to my recent comments remarking on the decline in quality, but recall that Nick Szabo (a blogger MM greatly respects) decided he didn't want to put up with "Malchus X" here.

I've also made the point before that teachers aren't that bright. Both the Inductivist and Audacious Epigone have been providing data for that recently. In one or the others threads I pointed out that education administrators have even lower standardized test scores and teachers.

September 3, 2009 at 2:08 PM  
Blogger newt0311 said...

@GM Palmer

I agree.

On a more basic level, the current progressive establishment as th use of force. Any reactionary movement will likewise need force os a counter-measure. Note that the two most recent sucessful reactionary movements (that I can think of) are Franco and Pinochet, both of which were military commanders with loyal soldiers and thus had force in copious quantities.

People are saying that nuclear weapons are the one thing that seasteading colonies cannot afford. On the contrary, nukes are one of the few things that could make them successful. Nukes would be a quick path to military power which could be used to counter the military power that USG already possesses. If these people think that the left cannot find an excuse to crush them, they lack imagination.

September 3, 2009 at 2:41 PM  
Blogger G. M. Palmer said...

re Darth Moldbug & China:

um, Mencius, y'all.

September 3, 2009 at 3:11 PM  
Anonymous josh said...

TGGP,

I don't know if you are talking about me, but I am sorry if I am lowering the level of the comments. I mean this sincerely. I certainly don't want to be Malchus-like. I was really shooting for neutral at worst. I will refrain from commenting for a while.

September 3, 2009 at 3:26 PM  
Blogger TGGP said...

I'm sorry josh, I didn't mean to refer to you. I intended to note this in my first comment responding to MM's post (before you had commented), but forgot. The implicit point I was making was that MM used to take part with the plebs and more intelligent discussions were had (similarly, I think nick abstaining only bodes more ill). This current thread isn't actually nearly as bad as some more recent ones.

September 3, 2009 at 4:04 PM  
Anonymous c23 said...

Quoth TGGP:
Let's try true communism. I know attempting to create communism produced Stalin last time, but you see I've got all these pamphlets in which I explain how we can be sure to get it right this time!

N=1 in the case of Hitler. With Communism N=more than I can count, and every time you get some combination of butchery and n eventual move towards capitalism as it becomes obvious that communism doesn't work.

You could have just as well concluded that the French Revolution would be a relatively bloodless success just because the American Revolution was before it.

If you group other right-wing governments like Pinochet, Franco, and the Greek generals with Hitler, reactionaries don't look as bad. Hitler was a standout due to his own personality flaws. If he had been hit by a bus in '38, there would have been no war because his likely successor Goering was against it.


If the left feeds on the right, then why is it stronger in Europe, where the right is weaker?


Within living memory, the right ruled just about every country in Europe. As recently as 1974, Spain and Greece were more or less fascist countries. Even today, parties that would be hopelessly right-wing in the US (BNP, FN, Vlaams Belang, Northern League in Italy) can get a substantial number of votes.

Right-liberals of the Cato and JPod variety are weaker there, but what parties like the BNP lack in power relative to the American "right" they make up for in scaryness to liberals.

September 3, 2009 at 5:51 PM  
Anonymous c23 said...

I don't quite get how passivism is supposed to get you in a position to accept power. The closest thing I can think of to an historical example of a case like that is the collapse of the Roman Empire, when the big landowners turned themselves into feudal lords (those who weren't dispossessed by barbarian invaders, that is).

But those big landowners didn't get to be big landowners by being passive - they got themselves into that position by whatever means people use to get rich, which doubtlessly included playing political games.

September 3, 2009 at 5:55 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

People are saying that nuclear weapons are the one thing that seasteading colonies cannot afford. On the contrary, nukes are one of the few things that could make them successful. Nukes would be a quick path to military power which could be used to counter the military power that USG already possesses. If these people think that the left cannot find an excuse to crush them, they lack imagination.

The idea that seasteaders could ever build, acquire, maintain, deploy, or use nuclear weapons is so moronic it defies belief. This is true even if the seasteaders aren't trying to coerce or defy or deter the USG.

Apropos of today's discussion, acquiring nukes is the exact opposite of passivity. Any attempt to do so would be to put a big red "I AM THE ENEMY, COME AND GET ME" sign on the seasteading project.

September 3, 2009 at 6:13 PM  
Blogger TGGP said...

c23:
Hitler may be N=1, but MM is saying that his proposal has never been done, so N=0. Being of a Burkean temperament, I think its crazy to try something that has never succeeded and could result in Hitler.

Pinochet may have improved things for Chile, but Franco and the Greeks (the latter of whom actually formed rather unstable governments which begat more coups) provided rather poor governance. Batista of Cuba was a much better ruler (except for getting himself overthrown). If we're allowed to increase our N by including the Italian and Japanese spokes of the axis, we see more foolish adventurism (which is actually what did in the Greeks). Including the Iron Guard makes it look even worse.

You are right that multiparty democracy gives the far right more presence there. Note that this puts you at odds with MM, who thinks Europe was conquered by the U.S in WW2, eliminating its political right.


Anonymous September 3, 2009 6:13 PM:
What you say makes sense. Now get a handle. Seasteads will be quite sinkable by militaries. They'd be eliminated well before they had a chance to make use of nukes.

September 3, 2009 at 7:13 PM  
Anonymous Leonard said...

If I were to predict where Moldbug is going with this passivism, there will be two paths to power.

1) is the military coup, presumably after America becomes ungovernable after excessively leftism saps our purity of essence. The military dude in charge will look around, and if we're lucky, see the only purehearted reactionaries in town, namely, moldbuggerers. Passivism prepares one for power because the nature of the reset requires trust that the people you set up as sovereign to do it will give up power once their role is complete. This seems, at least plausible to me, if not very likely.

2) is this strange idea of MM where the lumpenvoters somehow vote for a reset without knowing anything about it, as a reaction against failure of the Cathedral. I think it's absurd, but I mention it because MM has propounded it apparently seriously. In this case, there's still a lot of steps before reactionary passivism really gets you anywhere. Presumably it is the disgust with politics of the suddenly wise idiot voters that somehow induces the referendum to include "all power to the pilots and moldbuggerers".

Neither of these scenarios is very likely. At the very least, USCorp needs to utterly fail economically to make either of them at all likely.

September 3, 2009 at 7:13 PM  
Anonymous c23 said...

@TGGP
>but MM is saying that his proposal has never been done, so N=0.

I'm a little confused here, both by you and MM. If N=0, why mention Hitler at all?

As for all of the other rightists, there's one event that makes them look really bad - WWII. If you can avoid having a militaristic gambler for a leader, or someone who will jump on his bandwagon when it momentarily appears to be succeeding, it's not clear to me that they're worse than what we have.


>Being of a Burkean temperament, I think its crazy to try something that has never succeeded and could result in Hitler.


Burke fails in the modern world. Our old traditions led us to where we are now, which means that nothing has ever succeeded. That's why MM came up with some weird untested plan rather than just being a strict constructionist. It's impossible to stick with the tried and true when there is no such thing.

>You are right that multiparty democracy gives the far right more presence there. Note that this puts you at odds with MM, who thinks Europe was conquered by the U.S in WW2, eliminating its political right.

Giving MM the benefit of the doubt and assuming that he is aware of the existence of the BNP and similar parties, and taking into account his penchant for hyperbole, I think he meant that the European right is too weak to be a serious contender for power. Compare to the US where Republicans are still a national party (sort of).

The point is that the Euro right is powerful enough to provoke an allergic reaction in the Euro left. The fact of the matter is that progressives everywhere are always shitting their pants over a right-wing molehill that they make into a mountain, regardless of the actual condition that the right is in at that time and place. What's the difference between an anaphylactic reaction to and bee sting and an anaphylactic reaction to 10 bee stings? Not much.

September 3, 2009 at 8:47 PM  
Anonymous Foss said...

Mencius Moldbug,

I'm not sure if you follow Bloggingheads or not, but in a recent diavlog the editor of the site Robert Wright mentioned a new project at the site called "Apollo" where commenters and outsiders, that is non-Blogginghead regulars, would engage in video diavlog debates on various topics at the site. He said that it would incorporate some sort of software so that these participants' faces could be concealed.

Wright talks about it here and around 36:30 of that segment.

I mention this because it seems like an excellent opportunity to get your ideas out there, and because it incorporates facial concealment and allows you to maintain your privacy, like your engagement at the Seasteading conference next month.

September 3, 2009 at 10:00 PM  
Blogger AMcGuinn said...

Actually we Brits have been citizens for a long time now. These days we're even teaching our kids "citizenship".

On top of that, we're citizens of the European Union. Double the citizeny fun!

September 3, 2009 at 10:53 PM  
Blogger juantblanco said...

RE: TGGP's September 3, 2009 4:04 PM comment:

I think there is something purposeful behind this change in the comments section. Only time will tell. If I was more dedicated to my blog concept we could have such joyful wars between us... alas, dissipation is where I lay my dedication.

Your "geopolitical" assessment of seasteading is dead-on though. Only something as out of reach as space can let these experiments take place without bloodshed or collaps.

RE: c23:

From what my Turing Test failing a$$ can tell (remember me "josh"?), you have the gist of all this... Burke, while awesome, has failed us. And while it is fun to carry on the march of Rothbard or Burke both of whome have been tossed aside either in part or in full by the "modern world".

Liberty not democracy as Hoppe suggests is where we should lay our hopes. And liberty can be found in the small rather than the large. Over at Front Porch Republic, Deenan has talked about how Madison created the Constitution to make liberty difficult versus imperial/ commercial interests.

September 3, 2009 at 11:10 PM  
Anonymous josh said...

juantblanco,

I'm sorry. I was only trying to make a joke. I really didn't want to offend you. I apologize.

September 4, 2009 at 7:42 AM  
Blogger juantblanco said...

josh; i'm joking too. ;)

September 4, 2009 at 9:08 AM  
Blogger Porphyrogenitus said...

Minor point/question, but if Hitler wasn't on the Left (and Nazism, on economics, among other things, they seem to have followed a progressive method. Certainly regimes that followed the same type of economics were admitted to the club after. See Hugo Chavez as the latest example), never having gotten his Club Card, what about Mussolini?

He was certainly a certified, dues-paying member of the club. Did he defect? When was his membership card pulled? Was it the late 30s? What policy changes got his membership revoked?

("Membership Has its Priviledges", including a rationalizing rather than condemnatory attitude, and no doubt he did lose it. I think this has more to do with him chosing the Wrong Horse rather than any policy changes).

Mussolini of course was hated by the rest of the Italian left after he gained power, but that's common in Left movements that hate their internal rivals (see also how the Bolsheviks treated the Mencheviks), but he wasn't a parriah to international progressivism till at least the mid-late-30s.

Of course, I wouldn't support seizing power in anything like the way Mussolini did - but, then, his background and methods were all derived from progressivism, and he extrapolated further upon them.

September 4, 2009 at 4:40 PM  
Blogger xlbrl said...

That's pretty much as my ma explained it when I was a lad. Very impressive that this kind of thinking doesn't draw nasty mail, but it can get a fellow crucified, not to mention the potential for cat food.
My word verification is messiah. Must be a clue.

September 4, 2009 at 8:12 PM  
Blogger Moses said...

Pennsylvania Dutch and the Brooklyn Chasidim. Aren't they the model, rather than the exception? Do either of them have any use for UR, or might they teach UR a few tricks?

The most powerful form of reaction is non-action because Progressivism is the cult of action. Without resistance, action has no power.

Everywhere the progressive acts, the reaction is non-action. This is not because the reactionary is not acting, it is because he is on another path. To the world he is inaction, to himself he is all action, he has changed the Way.

The Progressive attempt to indoctrinate the child fails not because the parent resists, but because the child is at home studying the Analects.

September 5, 2009 at 12:06 PM  
Blogger George Weinberg said...

This idea that the left needs or is strengthened by opponents is a total crock. If it lacks sufficient enemies, it simply creates them, out of itself if necessary. In France, Russia, China, anywhere, today's revolutionary can be tomorrow's counter-revolutionary which must be purged.

Another crock is the idea that the atrocities of communist regimes were motivated by fear of being overthrown. Most people killed by communists were killed because they attempted to keep some fraction of what they produced, or because they were suspected of having done so or being likely to do so. "Passivity" won't be enough to keep you off an enemies list unless you also work as hard as you are able and willingly fork over as much as is demanded at any time. I can't imagine anyone who does this being regarded with anything other than contempt by anyone.

September 5, 2009 at 12:26 PM  
Blogger Gerard said...

Request for the Readers Digest Condensed Version please.

September 5, 2009 at 3:22 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Request for the Readers Digest Condensed Version please.

He says this blog "is concerned not with the number of people who read it, but with the quality of people who read it." If you're not willing to read the whole thing, this blog is not for you.

September 6, 2009 at 6:36 AM  
Anonymous Nobody said...

Can you please write a post like this every week and put all your poetry and operating system crap in some other blog?

September 6, 2009 at 7:37 AM  
Blogger Gerard said...

Dear A. Non,

I know well what the blog is about and I dare say I've read as much or more than any man here. But it would seem to me that in order to entice les autres it might be well to do a kind and gentle introduction to the gentle introduction. Or at least the Classics Illustrated version.

But I do not mean to reign in the parade nor lild the gily. Play through.

September 6, 2009 at 8:27 AM  
Anonymous anon2.718 said...

Passivism sounds nice, and might make for some gains here and there, but between 1536 and 1919, nearly every monastery in Europe was dissolved by the secular authorities.

Monks are connected with competing ecclesiastics and the ancien regime, but if they don't practice passivism, no one does. And yet, they're always a target. Leftists will find you.

September 6, 2009 at 8:40 AM  
Blogger G. M. Palmer said...

Nobody,

Don't be a dipshit.

Gerard,

Then write one.

September 6, 2009 at 10:22 AM  
Blogger Malchus X said...

Nick Szabo (a blogger MM greatly respects) decided he didn't want to put up with "Malchus X" here

Fer cryin' out loud, that was one encounter on one thread where said poster was being an ass - besides the fact that I haven't commented on here in MONTHS since I've been in California on business. If that savant has such a tender conscience and gets his feelers hurt so easily, maybe he's not ready for prime time. Jeeze, you people take yourselves a bit too seriously at times.

September 6, 2009 at 11:36 AM  
Anonymous Gittes said...

Can you please write a post like this every week and put all your poetry and operating system crap in some other blog?

The vast majority of the posts at UR are stuff "like this." The poetry and OS stuff are a small fraction of the posts. And this isn't even counting for the fact that one UR post on stuff "like this" could be like 10 posts in one.

Stop complaining.

September 6, 2009 at 12:09 PM  
Blogger AMcGuinn said...

I don't know about the rest of Europe, but the monasteries around here were hardly passivist before they were got rid of.

In any case, I don't think passivism is the whole story - it's described as a prerequisite. Presumably 9b will tell us how to "become worthy", beyond what not to do (activism).

September 6, 2009 at 10:13 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

For example, one thing I always had trouble understanding about the history of World War II is why Japan never attacked the Soviet Union.

Wow. Really?

This just blows my mind, that someone who mentions Hitler so often can know so little (nothing?) about WWII. Amazing.

September 7, 2009 at 12:17 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This just blows my mind, that someone who mentions Hitler so often can know so little (nothing?) about WWII. Amazing.

Well, smarty pants, if you want to understand why Japan never attacked the USSR, you need to know about Japan, not Hitler.

September 7, 2009 at 7:07 AM  
Blogger G. M. Palmer said...

At the risk of feeding the trolls,

what Darth Moldbug meant was that if the Allied version of WWII is true -- that is, the AXIS powers were planning to TAKE OVER THE WORLD, then why in the hell did Japan attack the US instead of attacking the USSR -- as this would, indeed, have proven too much for the Red Bear to bear.

Instead, he says, they acted as if they didn't trust each other and had their own, individual agendas. Unlike the allies, who acted in concert.

September 7, 2009 at 8:20 AM  
Blogger Blode0322 said...

True fact: the author of UR has received over 7 zillion very interesting emails, all of which deserve responses, often long, that most have not received (but will).

This means that my communications have a 7 zillion to [unknown] chance of being worthy and interesting. I feel so much better.
:)

Seriously, though, what the whole thing suggests for anyone who doesn't take the oddball treat-activism-as-a-disease stance*, is that the next step is separation of ideologically incompatible regions. Imagine, DC, New York City, and Southern California in one country, and the rest of America in another. Wouldn't that be glorious?

Not plausible, I suppose, but I think it is at least as plausible as Patchwork, restoration of the Stuarts, and whatever Moldbug's next post is going to be. (I haven't been reading him from the beginning, but I think I've been reading him long enough to get a general sense of where he's going.) Prediction: the next step will be long-dead in being posted by Moldbug, and when it comes out it will be some sort of high-tech Buddhist solution, i.e., put as much of your resources into the cybersphere where leftists can't put their grubby hands on it. Put as much of your attention as possible into meditation, study, transhumanism, etc. (I don't know where people are getting the idea that MM is into seasteading, but I may have missed a reference by him to it.)

I'd love to know what the gnosis of penultimate Anonymous has to say about why Japan didn't attack the USSR.

* I'm not saying this opinion is wrong, just that it is odd.

September 7, 2009 at 11:32 AM  
Anonymous Michael S. said...

Mussolini was certainly a socialist before he was a fascist, and the NSDAP certainly began as a party of the left. They became "right-wing" 1) because the left typically excommunicates its dissident elements by calling them that; and 2) because both Mussolini and Hitler in their own national contexts made compromises with forces to the right of them in order to placate them and preclude serious challenge from the right.

Mussolini, an atheist who once challenged God, if he existed, to strike him dead (as Umberto Eco said, God had other fish to fry at the time) concluded the Lateran Treaty of 1929 with the Roman Catholic Church. This eliminated the most serious challenge within Italian politics to the legitimacy of the secular Italian government, one which had existed since the Risorgimento - namely, the grievance of conservative Catholics at the loss of the Papal States and the subsequent unsettled status of the Church within the Italian state.

Hitler, by purging Röhm and the SA, the Strasser brothers, and other rivals, eliminated not only their personal threat to his supremacy, but also the anti-capitalist, social-revolutionary element of the Nazi party, in an effort to conciliate the conservative Reichswehr leadership.

In both Mussolini's and Hitler's cases these moves were purely pragmatic, but were understood as moves to the right. At least some of the old aristocratic-plutocratic right subsequently acquiesced in, if it did not embrace outright, fascism and Nazism, as being less threatenining to their interests than Bolshevism.

A question to discuss might be - was Trotsky a "rightist" in the same way as were Mussolini and Hitler? He was certainly condemned with as much vigor and venom as they were by that cynosure of the international left, Stalin's Soviet Union. According to Higham's book "Trading with the Enemy," Trotsky wrote to the Dies committee and volunteered to testify before them about Stalinist activities within the United States. Before anything came of this he had his fatal encounter with the icepick. Would he have "named names" - and what would that have done to his reputation amongst the good and the great?

I well recall hearing Stephen Tonsor observe, in a speech before the Philadelphia Society, that had Trotsky survived, he'd have ended his days teaching at the New School and writing for "Commentary" and "The Public Interest." Indisputably, the only remaining Trotskyites with any serious political influence are now called "neoconservatives."

September 7, 2009 at 2:02 PM  
Blogger George Weinberg said...

Unlike the allies, who acted in concert.
Except when they didn't.

The term "Axis" came from a Mussolini speech in 1937, here's Time's article. At the time Italy and Germany both had sent troops to fight in Spain, but Franco sat WWII out and thus was able to die of old age.

September 7, 2009 at 2:42 PM  
Blogger TGGP said...

Leonard:
Mencius seems to base his belief in #2 on the example of the Soviet Union. But as I said at the time, the USSR came apart as a result of a power-struggle between two Soviet politicians: Gorbachev and Yeltsin.


c23:
Sorry for being confusing, the N=0 refers to successful resets/reboots. Hitler fails the No True Scotsman test, so it ended up not being a True reset/reboot at all, merely a bungled attempt at one.

If you can avoid having a militaristic gambler for a leader, or someone who will jump on his bandwagon when it momentarily appears to be succeeding, it's not clear to me that they're worse than what we have.
And I suppose communism wouldn't be so bad if competent people were put in charge. The requirement that there be angels to govern men is a fatal flaw of any proposed system. You have to come up with a mechanism to ensure that worse decision-makers are weeded out or minimize the harm that a bad actor can do. Within an economy, free markets do both.

Burke fails in the modern world. Our old traditions led us to where we are now, which means that nothing has ever succeeded.
There are no guillotines in public squares. The churches are not being seized. Where we are now is the wealthiest society that has ever existed. Compare that to all who have tried rejecting Burke for radical transformation.


Porphyrogenitus:
Speaking of Hugo Chavez and fascism did you read this from the New Republic? Those with an interest in Carlyle (not me!) may get more out of it.


George Weinberg:
I agree that communist atrocities did not occur because the regime was vulnerable to overthrow. The collectivization of agriculture and liquidation of the kulaks, like China's Great Leap Forward, was the implementation of very bad policy over the resistance of peasants. King Leopold's Congo is another example expropriation at the hands of absolute power. Edward Luttwak held up "Papa Doc" Duvalier of Haiti as an example of stability through maximum taxation and minimum economic development.

September 7, 2009 at 5:27 PM  
Blogger TGGP said...

Perhaps some people would be willing to read this blog if it was written in pig-latin, but for most readers its a hassle. I for one think most of his long posts could be greatly shortened without losing anything of much worth. Eliezer Yudkowsky planned at one time to turn some of his Overcoming Bias posts into e-books and summarized their content into sequences. Someone wanting a starting point or "gentle introduction" would want that sort of thing rather than the bloated ramble here.


Nobody, I hate poetry as much as the next philistine, but it is fortunately not that frequent an occurrence. Software stuff is even rarer. Browsing at the list at Moldbuggery, I count three posts in the "University" category and two in the Assorted which are complaining about software.



Malchus X:
I don't mind it as much as Nick does, and have criticized Sean Carroll & Carl Zimmer for swearing off involvement in bhtv after Michael Behe was on. But in the absence of a force with which to dragoon those whose contributions we value, our complaints about their decisions don't amount to much. I think that having Mencius and Nick in the comments helped establish better norms and in their absence we should expect such norms to deteriorate.

said poster was being an ass
Nick was his usual self, you were the ass.


It is often forgotten that the Soviets trounced the Japanese Army early on. This led to a shift in power of the Navy faction and eventual war with the U.S. The Japanese had signed a non-agression pact with the Soviets because they knew how fighting them had worked out last time. Unlike Hitler, both sides honored their word.


G. M. Palmer:
Perhaps the Italians weren't trusted, but what did Germany or Japan do that displayed a distrust of one another greater than that which the western allies had for the Soviets?


Blode0322:
Have you heard of Bill Bishop's book, The Big Sort?


Michael S:
There are "left-deviationists" (an "infantile obsession") and "right-opportunists" in Marxist terminology. Trotsky is the former (as were the Strasser brothers) and made what is called the "left opposition". He was more in the "faster, please" camp than Stalin, and also more internationalist. He was though a Menshevik before becoming a Bolshevik. Bukharin formed the "right-opposition", although they were for a time allied with Trotsky's left-opposition. Many neoconservatives (we may include James Burnham here) were actually from that right-faction of the Trotskyite left-opposition in the U.S which Burnham played a role in splitting.


George Weinberg:
You are right that the Axis gave that name to themselves. One can hardly blame our history books for accepting their self-description.

September 7, 2009 at 5:27 PM  
Blogger Alrenous said...

TGGP,

May I ask, can you give me two or three examples of bloat you'd leave on the cutting room floor?


From what I see, Hitler, and Mussolini, were both left and right. The distinction is mostly fatuous, though there is some continuity in that the American left is the intellectual descendants of the puritan dissenters, while the tories are exactly that - the descendants of the throne and altar party. I've never seen a convincing argument that right and left have an essential character, any more than my own family has an essential character. 'Alrenousist' is no more a useful category than 'leftist.'

Perhaps ultimately the fascists were more right than left, but the idea that right and left are somehow mutually exclusive doesn't seem to wash.


It suddenly occurred to Nick Szabo that engaging with Mencius is not advisable if one likes one's career. Or perhaps he was always aware, but finally one of his colleagues actually found it. Either way, it suddenly became necessary for him to distance himself, and thus two identical comments containing ultimate denunciations of Mencius. They are quite stiff, to my ear, as well, suggesting that they were written more from necessity than desire. Someone in Nick's position does not have the luxury of debating everyone who is interesting to him.

September 7, 2009 at 7:07 PM  
Blogger Blode0322 said...

I'm not saying anything has been forgotten, but the Japanese were looking at a lot more data than their defeats in the border wars with the USSR. Soviet equipment was shown to be severely lacking in the Spanish Civil War, their respect for their neighbors was shown to be lacking in their little 1939 incident with Poland, and their fighting ability was shown to be crap by the Finns.

Granted, none of those wars showed the abilities of the best of the Soviet tanks (the BT-5 and BT-7 series, IIRC). I can see why the Japanese would want to steer clear of a beast like the USSR, avoiding the "land war in Asia" thing. On the other hand, they were willing to get in a land war with a more populous Asian country which happened to have the sympathy of a bunch of Americans. You'd think if they were going to pick their battles, they'd be more likely to fight the country their allies (axisies?) could help them out with, but the other factors were obviously more important. Some combination of:
A. "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere" ideology valued Chinese farmland above Siberian yak pasture.
B. The USSR seemed more formidable.
C. China was in the midst of a Civil War of the type Russia was done with.
D. Maybe they didn't trust Hitler. (I bet volumes have been written about Japanese views of Hitler, I just haven't read any of them!) If they didn't trust Hitler, that would make them smarter than Chamberlain, Molotov, Stalin, etc.

September 7, 2009 at 7:43 PM  
Anonymous c23 said...

TGGP:
And I suppose communism wouldn't be so bad if competent people were put in charge. The requirement that there be angels to govern men is a fatal flaw of any proposed system. You have to come up with a mechanism to ensure that worse decision-makers are weeded out or minimize the harm that a bad actor can do. Within an economy, free markets do both.

Communism would have to have superhuman AIs to work, because nobody's smart enough to competently run a command and control economy. Fascism is mostly capitalist, so any non-reckless, non-lunatic leader would do. The two systems of government just aren't comparable.

It's true that fascism lacks a mechanism for getting rid of bad leaders. That's why MM threw in the board of directors with the cryptographic locks - not a good solution IMO but at least he addressed the problem (yet everybody in the comments acts as though he didn't).

There are no guillotines in public squares. The churches are not being seized. Where we are now is the wealthiest society that has ever existed. Compare that to all who have tried rejecting Burke for radical transformation.

The masses have figured out that they can vote themselves other people's wealth, and they won't stop until they are forced to or until they kill the golden goose. The current order hasn't fallen apart yet, and it looks OK if you ignore the fundamentals, but so did the housing market 2 years ago. California's currently-unfolding situation today gives a glimpse of what we will all face in the future.

If you disagree with that - if you think everything's fine now - of course the conclusions drawn by those who think everything's fucked look crazy to you.

I don't know if post-Hoover America could be called Burkean anyway. You're using Burke to defend the wisdom of a tradition that's less than 80 years old, which isn't much of a tradition, in an era of constant change.

September 7, 2009 at 8:07 PM  
Anonymous jashik sekki said...

Good morn or evening Mencius and friends,
Here's your friendly announcer
I have serious news to pass on to every-body
What I'm about to say
Could mean the world's disaster
Could change your joy and laughter to tears and pain

It's that
Love's in need of love today
Don't delay
Send yours in right away
Hate's goin' round
Breaking many hearts
Stop it please
Before it's gone too far

The FORCE OF EVIL plans
To make you its possession
And it will if we let it
Destroy ev-er-y-body
We all must take
PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES
If LOVE AND PEACE you treasure
Then you'll hear me when I say

Oh that
Love's in need of love today
love's in need of love today
Don't delay
don't delay
Send yours in right away
right a-way
HATE's goin' round
HATE's goin' round
Breaking many hearts
break-ing hearts
Stop it please
stop it please
Before it's gone too far...


And remember, No HUMAN BEING is ILLEGAL... heeheehee.

Have a nice day.

September 7, 2009 at 9:50 PM  
Blogger Gerard said...

You keep that up somebody's gonna hunt you down with an axe.

September 7, 2009 at 10:02 PM  
Blogger Alrenous said...

Gerard, may I suggest that if you don't like a comment due to style, you don't read it, instead of covertly threatening violence?

If nothing else, it goads me, personally, into making pointless waste of time comments like this one. There are less immediate detriments as well, but they require more than reflexive proof and I've already wasted enough time.

September 7, 2009 at 10:34 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

No person is illegal. "Illegal aliens" should be called foreign criminals.

September 8, 2009 at 12:21 AM  
Blogger Gerard said...

Alrenous

Be neither goaded nor gilded. Instead, find your sense of humor and reattach it to the socket.

September 8, 2009 at 12:29 AM  
Anonymous Porter said...

This is off topic, but has Mencius ever addressed Robert Nozick's critique of the Austrians?

Nozick's critique is here.

September 8, 2009 at 12:41 AM  
Blogger Malchus X said...

Nick was his usual self, you were the ass

Then his "usual self" must be in full-bore prick mode, all the time, a mode in which it is evident he is not alone when commenting on this blog. What is that French saying MM is so fond of quoting? Ah yes, I have it: “Cet animal est tres mechant; quand on l’attaque, il se defend”

But not even that's quite right for this trivial silliness you continue to burble about - here's the more apt quote: “University politics are vicious precisely because the stakes are so small.” Replace "University" with "blog comments," and that about sums it up.

I invite one and all interested - and I can't imagine why anyone other than our handwringing Hamlet/"libertarian" axe-grinder would be - to return to that thread, review the back and forth, and decide for themselves who was being an ass. It's hard to believe that I've already wasted so many keystrokes on this absurd banter in the first place.

September 8, 2009 at 4:43 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

There are no guillotines in public squares. The churches are not being seized.

Oh, we'll get there soon enough.

Where we are now is the wealthiest society that has ever existed.

For now.

I for one think most of his long posts could be greatly shortened without losing anything of much worth.

Fortunately it is MM's concept of "worth" that controls this blog, not yours. Why don't you post a summary of his ideas on your site for the other troglodytes whose lips get tired from so much reading?

It is often forgotten that the Soviets trounced the Japanese Army early on.

Japan fighting the Soviets solo is different from Japan fighting the Soviets while Germany is also fighting the Soviets.

This led to a shift in power of the Navy faction and eventual war with the U.S.

The strategic debate was not resolved in favor of "either or", but "first this, then that". The IJN also wanted to attack the USSR, but only after securing the Pacific perimeter. The reason Japan never attacked the USSR was the perimeter was never secure.

The Japanese had signed a non-agression pact with the Soviets because they knew how fighting them had worked out last time. Unlike Hitler, both sides honored their word.

Japan should have violated the non-aggression pact. The only chance for the Axis to win was to act like an Axis and attack the only major Allied power they could defeat, the USSR.

what did Germany or Japan do that displayed a distrust of one another greater than that which the western allies had for the Soviets?

Ha! This shows profound ignorance of the diplomatic history of WW2. The western allies bent over backwards in an effort to cooperate with the Soviets. In contrast the Germans and Japanese barely even spoke to each other.

September 8, 2009 at 8:00 AM  
Anonymous Leonard said...

Mencius seems to base his belief in #2 on the example of the Soviet Union. But as I said at the time, the USSR came apart as a result of a power-struggle between two Soviet politicians: Gorbachev and Yeltsin.

I don't know the details of the demise of the USSR. But in any case I don't see the particular players as all that important from the perspective of using it as an analog for the hoped-for future demise of the Cathedral. (There will always be some men defending the status quo, and there will also always be some men attempting to change it.)
There's a huge glaring difference here: the USSR had the West, which was clearly superior, as a model. We have no model.

September 8, 2009 at 8:33 AM  
Blogger Alrenous said...

Gerard,

Be advised that humour does not transmit well over the internets. In person, sure, that might be hilarious. In plain text it is indistinguishable from trolldom.

September 8, 2009 at 10:21 AM  
Blogger Mitchell said...

All this Zen passivism could also lead a person to become a sort of Straussian democrat. You need only decide that in the end, the existing Structure is better than any alternative which is likely to actually be created.

September 9, 2009 at 1:29 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

An excellent summary of "Axis" lack of cooperation:

Despite the extent to which the totalitarian regimes of the Axis hadmore in common than the Allies, they failed as an effective alliance.3 In particular, the two leading Axis powers,Germany and Japan, were unable to create a military partnership, nor to provide mutual economic assistance that in any way matched that of the Allies, strained as relations among the latter were.German and Italian submarines were to link up in the Indian Ocean with the Japanese, but they did not mount any large-scale concerted operations.4 German plans for war with theUnited States made little of the prospect of Japanese assistance and preferred to focus on the possibility of using naval power and, subsequently, when that ceased to be even remotely plausible, on the prospect of “wonder weapons.”

Germany and Japan indeed fought what were in essence two separate wars, and there was little in the way of coordination or cooperation between them, and still less between Italy and Japan.

September 9, 2009 at 8:47 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

What happened to the humorous genteel moldbug who altered the word 'nigga' in quoted text to 'ninja'

September 9, 2009 at 9:19 AM  
Blogger Studd Beefpile said...

Had Japan and Germany coordinated, they might have been able to achieve something, but it's unlikely. The Japanese army in WWII was woefully under equipped and most of their victories were against similarly under equipped colonial garrisons. They had virtually no anti-tank weapons, tanks, or trucks, very little artillery, and completely obsolete doctrine and training. Logistics were never a Soviet strong point, but the Japanese were, if anything, worse. The Japanese units that fought the Soviets were among their best, but they were wiped out by second rate Soviet units. Even if they had invaded, and won completely, they had a LONG way to march before they threatened anything vital.

It doesn't really matter though, because the decision for war with America vs. Russia was not made on a rational basis, but for internal political reasons. Japanese politics were completely off the rail by the mid 30s, and the military was out of control. Service rivalry was pathological, and the army and the navy were each eager for a war that would expand their budget and institutional authority, economic or geopolitical reality be damned. For example, the IJN hated the Washington/London Naval treaties because they were perceived limiting naval construction. But the Navy was limited as much by industrial capacity as by treaties, and, if anything, the treaties were over generous regarding Japanese capacity. By the time the navy got out of the treaties, military spending was already about HALF of GDP, and by 1941 American naval superiority, freed from the treaty restrictions, was increasing, not decreasing.

September 9, 2009 at 11:29 AM  
Blogger Blode0322 said...

I can appreciate arguments for political passivity as well as arguments for political activism. I am worried that if both arguments attract significant numbers of followers that will only further divide the reactionary community / victims of leftism. In other words, the passivist strategy only works if there is virtually no one around to excite the left's immune system.

My guess is that there are plenty of young white men with intimidating haircuts who read less in a month than is featured in a single one of Moldbug's post. Yet the same disorganized youths are quite enough to convince the leftist establishment that leftists are the rebellion.

So what will be the effect of Moldbug's strategy be? Some percentage of the more literate reactionaries will quit countering the socialists of the right. In other words, I think Mencius is dead wrong on this one, more so than usual.

In his next post, he may be right: we should be working to become fit. Reading a lot, etc. It will be interesting to see what he says, but I suspect I'll have shuffled off to another blog by then.

I kind of like the old tacit strategy of the decentralized reactionary brain trust: blog cerebrally enough that the leftist intellectuals feel the need to read you. Be super-polite. One or two of them may begin to accept righty ideas for the sake of argument, and then find they are true, and influence their friends....

September 9, 2009 at 12:52 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Leonard said,

"There's a huge glaring difference here: the USSR had the West, which was clearly superior, as a model. We have no model."

This is not entirely true. Despite generations of soporific agitprop from the televitz telling us that everything is vastly better than it ever was before, and everything is getting better and better and will continue getting better and better, MiniTru (MiniJew?) cannot entirely eradicate the past. For example, a comparatively vastly successful model is the US prior to the Rosenfelt administration's unconstitutional seizure of dictatorial powers during the 1930s.

MiniTru has not yet, not quite, been able to erase the historical record showing that, for example, in 1900 the murder rate in the US was one per year per 100,000 population, and by 2000 it was six times that, despite all the Progressive cause could do to expropriate at gunpoint the wealth, homes, neighborhoods, schools, and jobs of working-class White men and shovel them all down the bottomless gullets of vicious stupid lazy subhuman apes, despite all they could do to force White society to accept the apes and punish them leniently, if at all, for their inevitable transgressions, in order that they won't feel offended or left out.

More to the point, we see again that Mr. Moldbug has a keen eye when it comes to noticing that Something Is Wrong, but can offer no cogent advice.

I am speaking purely hypothetically here, as an observer of history, and what follows is, of course, for entertainment purposes only. Not responsible for lost or stolen objects. Keep hands inside the vehicle at all times.

Historians in the future might define what we see now in Soviet Kalifornistan as the beginning of the end. The state has been ungovernable for quite some time. They keep putting bigger and bigger piles of increasingly deflated dollars in the hopper and pulling the big chrome-plated lever, but it's been decades since this resulted in more than a sputtering noise and an odor of flatulence, and now the state is reduced to printing up risible Monopoly-money IOUs for taxpayers to whom it owes money (the apes, of course, who still at this point loyally press the big button marked with the "D" when led into a voting booth by their keepers, are still entitled to actual money). Large sections of the once-proud cities the White race constructed are no-go zones where the feral apes kill one another as their sole entertainment and kill any Human on sight who is unlucky or foolhardy enough to visit them.

The state is running out of entities willing either to live within its borders and pay taxes or loan it money. The state will, of course, use its penultimate cent to purchase a bullet to shoot at uppity White taxpayers who fail to bow and tug the forelock for their betters, and with its last penny pay for Medi-Cal emergency room visits for Dayshawn and his homies, who got a little bit shot-up and leaky up trying to knock over some old honky's liquor store this morning, sheeyit muhfugga deez muhfuggin guns beez causin too much tragedies on de streeks, muh baby dint do nuffin, sheeyit, dat beez racisms, dat beez a muhfuggin hatecrime. So those last pennies just may be in sight.

(part 2 coming soon to a comment page near you)

September 9, 2009 at 6:13 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

(Comment Part II: This Time It's Personal)

What then, when the mighty Governator can no longer even mime dumping bushel baskets of other people's money into the machine? What then, dear readers, when the food stamps run out and the cops desert the police stations and take their families into the hills, and the water and power stop working? What then?

And with the Illegal-Alien-in-Chief lighting the afterburners under the printing presses to write the next trillion-dollar love-note to his UAW supporters, how much longer do you suppose the entity Mr. Moldbug calls USG can continue doing its thing? And when I say "its thing," I mean "feeding the tapeworms in the nation's intestine and holding its boot on the throat of those who would try a purgative remedy?"

Sometimes I think Mr. Moldbug is one of our old forum regulars from Stormfront or VNN, here to troll us all. He has repeatedly made the rather bizarre claim that White nationalism is a dead end because it has no plan. Speaking hypothetically, just for entertainment purposes of course, for I know nothing about anything and I'm just blathering here like a fool, yibble yibble yibble, what if at least just a few of these hypothetical and probably-fictional WNs were quietly stockpiling food, potable water, arms and ammunition (anyone noticed all the runs on ammunition in department stores that carry it over the last year?), quietly training and biding their time, waiting for ZOG to collapse under its own rotting weight, which could even conceivably be imminent? What if, eh?

And, if you will indulge me by permitting me to go off on another mad, mad tangent, anything could happen but I hardly expect peace and comity between America's "castes," as he so colorfully terms them, should the Progressive State run out of means to keep the lid on. The Amerikaners, as he calls them, loathe both the Morlocks and the Eloi. The Eloi have for about four and a half decades now taken every opportunity to spit in the faces of the Amerikaners but cringe at the Morlocks' tread. The Morlocks are stupid vicious brutes not wholly aware that anything exists out there beyond the tips of their crackpipes. Just speaking hypothetically, of course, it is the Amerikaners who have the guns, the numbers, the organization, and the righteous rage; the Eloi are cowards and opportunists, and the Morlocks lack the synapses to organize anything more complex or involving a larger group than a gang-rape. So if the Black Flag is hoisted, I'm pretty confident about what the end result will be. Think of it as evolution in action.

This has all been, of course, just crazy talk. I know nothing about anything. My guns were all lost in a tragic boating accident. Y'all can go back to eating nachos and watching Survivor. There's nothing to see here, citizen. Move along.

September 9, 2009 at 6:19 PM  
Blogger TGGP said...

Alrenous:
May I ask, can you give me two or three examples of bloat you'd leave on the cutting room floor?
One hardly knows where to begin. It's like a fish trying to point out water or discuss wetness. Mencius noted earlier that the printed version of the Open Letter came out to 340 pages. In the same post he also links to a page that condeses much of his thought. Bryan Caplan once turned a 231 word paragraph from Hayek into 57, and that was from one of his favorite pieces of Hayek's writing. Moving from paragraphs to series of posts, I think one could achieve a much higher ratio for Mencius while losing little of value.

I agree and have argued a number of times here and elsewhere that "left" and "right" mean little. The "left" will generally redefine itself according to what's popular. The right, on the other hand, will redefine itself according to what's popular.

I really doubt Nick Szabo had a "sudden occurrence". He's been around since the beginning (UR is even named after Unenumerated) and its not like Mencius was much less offensive back then. Szabo doesn't have many blogs on his blogroll, but one of them is Steve Sailer. Its true that Andrew Gelman has gotten away with associating with Sailer, but that still ranks higher than having some comments at UR and linking to them on ocassion. Since he has been here, Nick has been riding his hobbyhorse regarding the awfulness of Justinian and Napoleon's legal codes. Back then Mencius claimed the color orange in honor of "the one revolution that truly was Glorious". He has since rejected said revolution and claimed to be a Jacobite reactionary, which might explain Szabo having lowered his opinion of Mencius' views.


Blode0322:
You'd think if they were going to pick their battles, they'd be more likely to fight the country their allies (axisies?) could help them out with
Not only that, but Nazi Germany used to have quite good relations with Nationalist China! It was not always certain that Hitler would side with the Japanese against the Chinese. Have you read The Rape of Nanking? A Nazi actually saved a great many Chinese people by hiding them from the Japanese; a leftover from good Sino-German relations of the past.


c23:
Fascism is mostly capitalist
I suppose fascism is too incoherent to have much of an economic doctrine, but fascists themselves tended to have a crappy understanding of economics, attempting idiotic things like autarky. Because they weren't that committed to an economic ideal they were sometimes able to learn from their mistakes. Franco (not actually a fascist himself) replacing the Falangists with Opus Dei technocrats for the Spanish Miracle is an example. On the other hand, China is still officially communist. Supposedly, big business actually favored the communists in Spain because they thought the nationalists would be worse for the economy. I'd link to Sheldon Richman making that claim but the blog he made it at is down at the moment.

yet everybody in the comments acts as though he didn't
His solution was made fun of in the comments at the time (more the part about guns than anything), so its not taken too seriously. Investing a single individual with absolute power (as in Fnargland) is the major aspect of his plan, and any safeguards added on would be unlikely to hold.

September 9, 2009 at 10:25 PM  
Blogger TGGP said...

The masses have figured out that they can vote themselves other people's wealth
They figured that out a long time ago. The disease is more advanced in Scandinavia, but as Sailer noted the predictions about its demise have been greatly exaggerated.

California's currently-unfolding situation today gives a glimpse of what we will all face in the future.
Or a flashback to the past, some of our states have defaulted before.

I don't know if post-Hoover America could be called Burkean anyway. You're using Burke to defend the wisdom of a tradition that's less than 80 years old, which isn't much of a tradition, in an era of constant change.
Funny enough, Peter Viereck, one of the first people to rehabilitate the term "conservative" thought the New Deal was so embedded in our national fabric that he supported Adlai Stevenson! I disagree, and think the conservative movement was right to push back and repeal many regulations and bring down marginal tax rates and the unionized portion of the workforce. It didn't actually shrink government because that was never its priority. The Nixonians have long been running the GOP.


Porter:
I'm not sure if Mencius has read Nozick. Its questionable whether its worth reading philosophers in the first place. The awful method is my main problem with Austrians (some of whom do at least have a sense of humor about it). For those readers who accept Austrian Economics, some of you might be interested in a recent dispute over whether Ludwig von Mises was actually opposed to fractional reserves or if his position has been mistakenly conflated with Rothbard's.

decide for themselves who was being an ass
I recall many commenters making known their decision at the time. You accused them of being sockpuppets.


Anonymous September 8, 2009 8:00 AM:
How can we keep you straight from every other Anonymous if you don't use any identifier? Just sign as "anon 3" or something at the bottom of your comments.

Oh, we'll get there soon enough.
I know there's a more open-access version of Long Bets somewhere on the web. You should make a wager.

For now.
Yes, in the future greater wealth will be achieved.

September 9, 2009 at 10:26 PM  
Blogger TGGP said...

Why don't you post a summary of his ideas on your site for the other troglodytes whose lips get tired from so much reading?
That's a job for the folks at corrupt.org, I've got other interests at my own blog.

Japan fighting the Soviets solo is different from Japan fighting the Soviets while Germany is also fighting the Soviets.
True enough. The defeat of the army raised the stature of the navy, and it was the navy that pushed them in a different direction.

Japan should have violated the non-aggression pact. The only chance for the Axis to win was to act like an Axis and attack the only major Allied power they could defeat, the USSR.
With the U.S out, that would have been a good idea. With the U.S in, taking on another front would have been less desirable. Also, as Razib has noted, even just taking on the USSR wasn't that feasible considering the scale of Germany's ambitions.

In contrast the Germans and Japanese barely even spoke to each other.
The U.S actually gained a good deal of information about German forces from Magic's decryption of Japan's "Purple" cipher. The Japanese Army did not trust Purple, and the Germans had told the Japanese not to either. It has been claimed the Soviets also independently cracked Purple near the end of the war, but we don't know for certain since that information wasn't shared (in contrast to the U.S and U.K sharing Ultra's Enigma info).


Anonymous September 9, 2009 9:19 AM:
I'm going to assume you're not the other Anonymous above. Indicate as such when you comment.

What happened to the humorous genteel moldbug who altered the word 'nigga' in quoted text to 'ninja'
I also prefer an absence of nigger-speak and references to sodomy. My guess is that an altered curseword is a hassle to keep up, although supposedly the old Battlestar Galactica managed.


Blode0322:
The argument against passivism is quite similar to the one against pacifism.

Yet the same disorganized youths are quite enough to convince the leftist establishment that leftists are the rebellion.
No, the rebellion is against old white men.

I kind of like the old tacit strategy of the decentralized reactionary brain trust
When was this operative? And have you heard of Steven Teles' "The Rise of the Conservative Legal Movement"? Centralizing into the Federalist Society (which is internally rather loose) was a major step forward, recently imitated by liberals in the form of the American Constitution Society.

September 9, 2009 at 10:27 PM  
Blogger TGGP said...

Anonymous September 9, 2009 6:13 PM:
You've indicated that the two comments in a row are yours. Thats helpful, but more helpful would be to come up with a handle we can use to refer to you.

Rosenfelt administration's unconstitutional seizure of dictatorial powers during the 1930s
You seem to have a hard time accepting that a lot of the bastards you hate are gentiles. Presidents seizing dictatorial powers didn't begin with FDR, Lincoln and Wilson had already done it.

in 1900 the murder rate in the US was one per year per 100,000 population
I'm halfway persuaded by one of their (Jewish!) disinformation agents that it was actually higher.

increasingly deflated
I think you mean "inflated".

the apes, of course, who still at this point loyally press the big button marked with the "D" when led into a voting booth by their keepers, are still entitled to actual money
Welfare recipients get IOUs, legislators get real money.

kill any Human on sight who is unlucky or foolhardy enough to visit them
Mencius would call Sudhir Venkatesh a Brahmin, would you call him a Human?

The state is running out of entities willing either to live within its borders and pay taxes or loan it money
No, there is little emmigration and still inflows of immigration. Foreigners seem quite happy to give us more money these days, and the indicator is the interest on the debt.

Sometimes I think Mr. Moldbug is one of our old forum regulars from Stormfront or VNN, here to troll us all
Funny you say that, considering your writing style it briefly occurred to me that you might be him!

White nationalism is a dead end because it has no plan
He said white nationalism is wrong because it lumps all white people together and can't comprehend "Brahmins". Anti-semites like you don't make that mistake, and he explained why he wasn't one here.

The Eloi have for about four and a half decades now taken every opportunity to spit in the faces of the Amerikaners but cringe at the Morlocks' tread
They'll have plenty more decades with little to fear from either. My prediction is a slow slouch toward latin american norms of inequality. Amerikaners (or Vaisya or Burghers as Mencius calls them) of the old type will be outnumbered while the train keeps rolling. Living away from other people (they're what hell is) makes sense for now, but ultimately leaving the country strikes me as the only option to really come out on top.

the righteous rage
I recall the Inductivist showing that they are actually more mellow. And of course one's cause being "righteous" never did anyone a damn bit of good.

On a final note, I think you might like Cleve Blakemore.

September 9, 2009 at 10:27 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

@Studd,

Had Japan and Germany coordinated, they might have been able to achieve something, but it's unlikely.

It is even more unlikely (read: impossible) that they could achieve anything if they didn't coordinate.

The material deficiencies of Germany and Japan are well-known, and it is precisely these deficiencies that required them to coordinate closely if they wanted to win.

The Japanese units that fought the Soviets were among their best, but they were wiped out by second rate Soviet units.

Untrue in both cases.

Even if they had invaded, and won completely, they had a LONG way to march before they threatened anything vital.

Merely taking Vladivostok would have been very helpful to the Axis, because 47% of all US lend-lease came via that route. If the Japanese had denied the Persian Gulf lend-lease route, that would have been another 24%.

It doesn't really matter though, because the decision for war with America vs. Russia was not made on a rational basis, but for internal political reasons.

Of course it was made for rational reasons. America cut off Japan's oil supplies. Even a hopeless attack on America was better than abject surrender.

@TGGP,

Nazi Germany used to have quite good relations with Nationalist China! It was not always certain that Hitler would side with the Japanese against the Chinese.

What made it certain was (a) Japan attacked China, and (b) Japan forced Germany to choose. Really there was no choice...

Yes, in the future greater wealth will be achieved.

How? Right now the USG could not meet its obligations even if it confiscated 100% of personal and corporate wealth and cut the defense budget and other "discretionary" spending to zero. The deficit is out of control: "America now owes more than Americans are worth—and the gap is growing!" How are we going to grow our way out of that? I haven't seen a single plausible scenario for doing so, and if somehow we did, the gummint would only accelerate spending even more.

even just taking on the USSR wasn't that feasible considering the scale of Germany's ambitions.

Germany could have beaten the USSR, especially if the Japanese helped.

The U.S actually gained a good deal of information about German forces from Magic's decryption of Japan's "Purple" cipher.

I have read all those Purple decrypts, and they are mostly utterly banal. The Germans and Japanese are not coordinating their grand strategy in those discussions in the same way the US and UK coordinated, or even in the way the US, UK, and USSR coordinated. Not even close!

September 10, 2009 at 6:06 AM  
Anonymous c23 said...

Me previously:
The masses have figured out that they can vote themselves other people's wealth

TGGP:
They figured that out a long time ago. The disease is more advanced in Scandinavia, but as Sailer noted the predictions about its demise have been greatly exaggerated.

Stop being disingenuous. You're not stupid enough to have failed to notice that Steve has also pointed other differences between the blue-eyed utopias and the rest of us.

Or a flashback to the past, some of our states have defaulted before.

How is defaulting on bonds used to buy canals and stuff like that comparable to having a large class of voters whose livelihood depends on redistribution of wealth? Defaulting was the solution of the debt problem for those states 150 years ago, but in California it won't solve anything. It'll just sharpen the contradictions as all programs will have to be paid for with tax money.

but fascists themselves tended to have a crappy understanding of economics, attempting idiotic things like autarky.

Autarky is a good idea if you are or will be in conflict with your trading partners, which was true of fascist countries. They were screwed by the inability to get fuel, for example. Japan wouldn't have even needed to start a war if they could have come up with some substitute for oil (there's lots of coal in China and coal can be converted to gasoline, and biofuels suck but they're better than getting nuked).

Funny enough, Peter Viereck, one of the first people to rehabilitate the term "conservative" thought the New Deal was so embedded in our national fabric that he supported Adlai Stevenson! I disagree, and think the conservative movement was right to push back and repeal many regulations and bring down marginal tax rates and the unionized portion of the workforce. It didn't actually shrink government because that was never its priority. The Nixonians have long been running the GOP.

Viereck was right that the New Deal was embedded in our social fabric. I don't disagree with anything you wrote here, but I would note that, since you want to dismantle something that's embedded into our social fabric, you too are some sort of radical or reactionary rather than a Burkean.

September 10, 2009 at 6:36 AM  
Anonymous Leonard said...

Right now the USG could not meet its obligations even if it confiscated 100% of personal and corporate wealth and cut the defense budget and other "discretionary" spending to zero.

Of course it can. The USG's debts are denominated in USG dollars, which it can create at will. The will is currently lacking, but I think there is much more will for inflation than there is for, say, raising taxes, especially to punitive levels.

When the merry-go-round stops, don't be holding USG debt, or you'll be retiring on cat food.

September 10, 2009 at 8:11 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Of course it can. The USG's debts are denominated in USG dollars, which it can create at will.

Don't confuse ability to create dollars with ability to create wealth. The American economy does not have the ability to generate enough wealth for the government to confiscate to meet its obligations, and that is true regardless of whether those obligations are denominated in dollars or gold ingots or coffee beans.

September 10, 2009 at 8:20 AM  
Blogger Alrenous said...

TGGP;

Well that Sailer link certainly puts a dent in my theory. The comments still look off to me - now I just don't know why.

Although it could be something a relevant colleague cares about MM but not Sailer for their own personal reasons...I've seen it happen before, but I'm just making stories at this point.


About brevity....yes, that's nice and all, but that's why I asked for two or three specific examples. The other reason is so I can isolate what you're looking at and analyze it in depth.

September 10, 2009 at 8:56 AM  
Anonymous Leonard said...

Posh. The obligations are in dollars. I.e.: you can buy a USG bond right now, directly from the US treasury. Minimum Purchase: $100! Let's say you invest $10000 now, hoping to buy a car in 30 years. USG gets your $10000. It pays you interest each 6 months for 30 years, at which point, it pays you back $10000. Not inflation-adjusted $10000 (whatever they might compute that to be). 10000 2039-dollars -- whatever they are.

The USG could easily pay that off in 2039 by simply printing a $10000 bill, and giving you that. And if $10000 is the price of a cup of coffee in 2039 due to intervening inflation -- you get $10000. Enjoy your latte, chump!

September 10, 2009 at 9:06 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Leonard, you imbecile, inflation won't solve the debt problem:

The bad news for central bankers is that creating currency isn't like, say, diluting shareholders in a company. You're always rolling your debt, and the market's response to an inflationary strategy is (not surprisingly) higher interest rates. It's a treadmill, and it's extremely hard to get ahead.

So why do we have this mythology, as Donovan calls it, of inflating our way out of debt? It's probably because on the surface there's some simple logic to it, though more importantly it's a myth borne out of necessity. The opposite idea, that we'd actually have to cut spending and raise taxes (which is to say, actually pay off our debts) is just too painful to contemplate.


I don't know how the big brains at CBO managed to miss your ingenious "we can print more money and solve all our problems" solution. For some reason they keep using inflation-adjusted dollars in their long-range forecasts, and keep arriving at gloomy conclusions like "Under current law, the federal budget is on an unsustainable path—meaning that federal debt will continue to grow much faster than the economy over the long run." I have no doubt you know more than them, though.

September 10, 2009 at 9:50 AM  
Anonymous Leonard said...

The anonymous smartie is invited to read the link he gives:

The problem with the idea of governments inflating their way out of a debt burden is that it does not work. Absent episodes of hyper-inflation, it is a strategy that has never worked.

Not to mention that the author contradicts himself. "Never" means something: no instances of success. But if you look at the graph there, even on its own terms, there are data points in the lower-right quadrant. So you don't even need hyperinflation: do what they did, not what an average government does.

I'd also point out that if you buy that paper, you are buying the assumptions of its author. I.e., that GDP and inflation can be measured in any sensible way (known to moldbuggerers to be false), and that governments have measured and reported them fairly and accurately (suspect). And, for that matter, that the points he measured are a fair and representative sample of all modern economies.

Also, you'd have to believe that the dollar is just like the average OECD currency, when it isn't.

September 10, 2009 at 11:26 AM  
Blogger TGGP said...

It is even more unlikely (read: impossible) that they could achieve anything if they didn't coordinate.
Regarding Russia, that seems more a problem for Germany than Japan.

Merely taking Vladivostok would have been very helpful to the Axis, because 47% of all US lend-lease came via that route.
I'd also add that the Japanese may not have been nearly as interested in the "vital" European parts of Russia as Germany was and may have settled for some of the east.

How?
The same way as in the past.

Right now the USG could not meet its obligations even if it confiscated 100% of personal and corporate wealth and cut the defense budget and other "discretionary" spending to zero
I expect tax revenue to increase in the future even without any increase in the tax rate, I'm more optimistic than Arnold Kling. I expect rates will also increase, contra Jeff Hummel. I don't rule out the possibility of default, I accept the market verdict that it's on the level of Cambell's defaulting on its debt. I don't think seriously and sustainably cutting government spending as a share of GDP is impossible in a democratic welfare state, Canada did it after all and while I'm not sure I think a number of Scandinavian countries did as well around the same time period.

and if somehow we did, the gummint would only accelerate spending even more.
I might have believed that back when I found "starve the beast" plausible. Reduced revenue doesn't provide a ceiling, I don't think increased revenue provides a floor. I can though see the share of GDP going to government increasing but still not winning Arnold's "Great Race".

Germany could have beaten the USSR
They beat them in WW1, but as Razib noted their ambitions were quite different in WW2.

Regarding coordination: that was more what MM was discussing, but I was responding on the topic of trust. Considering how much mistrust there was between different service branches (even within the U.S) mistrust between Japan and Germany doesn't look so bad. The lack of coordination isn't that surprising considering the vast distance between the two countries, with much of the space in between taken up by hostile territory. The relationship between Italy & Germany, while also pretty disorganized, is a better example of cooperation. Rome & Berlin made up the original "axis" (which logically speaking should be defined by two points!) and acted more like one.

September 10, 2009 at 6:30 PM  
Blogger TGGP said...

c23:
You're not stupid enough to have failed to notice that Steve has also pointed other differences between the blue-eyed utopias and the rest of us.
The reasons they have a larger welfare state are also related to the reasons it works so well. I wouldn't say its purely racial, just compare the white working class of Britain to them. But at any rate, it goes to show that people knowing they can vote themselves more money is not sufficient to cause collapse. As it happens, I've questioned the strength of the "increase diversity to provoke a bigoted backlash against the welfare state!" argument used by some too-clever-by-half pro-immigration libertarians. I'm not certain they're wrong, but I don't think Sweden is bad enough to embrace a two-tiered society instead.

How is defaulting on bonds used to buy canals and stuff like that comparable to having a large class of voters whose livelihood depends on redistribution of wealth?
I see it more along the lines of "interest groups are interest groups and spending is spending". That was from around the time Alexis de Tocqueville was marvelling at and fearing the unprecedented democracy here, so its not terribly different.

Autarky is a good idea if you are or will be in conflict with your trading partners, which was true of fascist countries
Autarky is what you're forced into if nobody will trade with you, but many fascists saw it as a desirable goal in itself and their lousy understanding of economics contributed to their dangerous foreign policy.

since you want to dismantle something that's embedded into our social fabric, you too are some sort of radical or reactionary rather than a Burkean.
I guess I am an anarcho-capitalist every other day of the workweek, a small-r small-c conservative republican on the others and a monarchist on the weekends. I discussed that sort of tension in my posts Judicial restraint and (to a greater extent) A particular universalism.

September 10, 2009 at 6:30 PM  
Anonymous c23 said...

I see it more along the lines of "interest groups are interest groups and spending is spending". That was from around the time Alexis de Tocqueville was marvelling at and fearing the unprecedented democracy here, so its not terribly different.

The big difference is that the states in the 19th century were taking the money and running, enriching themselves and some profiteers, while the states now are supporting millions of useless eaters with millions of votes. That means that the current situation is much worse - the dependents have more political power and more need for the money. They literally cannot survive without it. So the states now can't just say "fuck you" to the creditors and cash out, end of story - they have to come up with the money one way or another (debt or taxes).

When California can't sell bonds anymore and nobody takes their IOUs they will raise taxes to unprecedented levels. I think they're already quite high compared to those 19th century defaulter states.

Autarky is what you're forced into if nobody will trade with you, but many fascists saw it as a desirable goal in itself and their lousy understanding of economics contributed to their dangerous foreign policy.

Caplan based his analysis on Germany's postwar Panda-like birthrates, when Hitler was writing at a time when growth was over 1% per annum, and his own policies when he took power made it higher. Assuming a 2% growth rate from 1940, there would be 300 million Germans now, and over 300 quadrillion by the end of the thousand year Reich (a time frame which may seem irrelevant to you or Caplan, but that's what Hitler was concerned with). Good luck importing that much food. It's also likely that Germany's neighbors would have gotten scared as Germany grew and tried to take them down, which would mean starving Germany if Germany was dependent on imports for survival.

Hitler's big mistake was that he thought he could somehow get Germany from a second-rate medium-sized country to a superpower, as if other countries weren't willing and able to stop him. As it says in the Bible, "For whosoever hath, to him shall be given, and he shall have more abundance: but whosoever hath not, from him shall be taken away even that he hath."

September 10, 2009 at 8:41 PM  
Blogger hobbomagic said...


The Japanese units that fought the Soviets were among their best, but they were wiped out by second rate Soviet units.

Untrue in both cases.


The Japanese Amy in Manchuria (The Kwantung Army) was the elite of the IJA. I know less about the state of the Far East front, but Zhukov barely escaped purging, so I doubt he was given command of elite forces. Perhaps more importantly, Soviet forces as early as 1942/3 were orders of magnitude more effective than the 1939 forces, which was manifestly not true for the Japanese. The T-34 terrified the Germans, against the Japanese it would have been unstoppable.


Even if they had invaded, and won completely, they had a LONG way to march before they threatened anything vital.

Merely taking Vladivostok would have been very helpful to the Axis, because 47% of all US lend-lease came via that route. If the Japanese had denied the Persian Gulf lend-lease route, that would have been another 24%.


I didn't realize this about Lend Lease. Still, Vladivostok is literally in Japan's backyard. That USG was comfortable sending slow convoys through there doesn't say much about about Japanese capabilities. As for threatening the Persian Gulf, no way. They might have been able to Pearl Harbor some of the ports, but there is no way they could maintain any forces that far west in the teeth of the Royal Navy.
Still, Vladivostok would have been defended, and the Japanese army could almost certainly have not beaten the Soviet army, at least not without pulling out of China, which the army was completely unwilling to do. And even if they could have taken Vladivostok, they couldn't have gotten much past it. Their logistical system couldn't even keep 75k troops at Khalkhyn Gol adequately supplied.


It doesn't really matter though, because the decision for war with America vs. Russia was not made on a rational basis, but for internal political reasons.

Of course it was made for rational reasons. America cut off Japan's oil supplies. Even a hopeless attack on America was better than abject surrender.


USG cut of Japan because of Japan's insane and pointless attempt to conquer China, which the army refused to admit was completely impossible. But even were that not the case, and American and British policy solely driven by a Machiavellian scheme to trick the Japanese into war, it isn't rational to start a war with the two most powerful countries in the world while 80% of your army is already busy fighting. The rational Japanese decision in 1940 was to realize that discretion was the better part of valor, make concessions in exchange for oil, and bide their time.

But you're missing my point. Yes, a rational Japan would have worked closer with the Germans against the Russians, but so what? Even if I accept that you're more than right and the Germans and Japanese could have trounced Stalin if they had worked together, Japanese policy was determined at least as much by irrational factors as rational ones. It wasn't rational for the allies to give Hitler Czechoslovakia, or to sit in the Maginot Line while Germany was invading Poland. Yet these things were done. Why? Because leaders are constrained as much by their own prejudices and institutions as by their rivals. Chamberlain was desperate to avoid a war, and the French military was haunted by memories of Verdun. In Japan, institutional rivalry and a culture of saving face meant options that options that should have been on the table weren't, and options that shouldn't have been were. By the time the USSR was invaded by Germany, institutional inertia prevented even a change of plans from even being considered.

September 11, 2009 at 10:56 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

@TGGP,

Regarding Russia, that seems more a problem for Germany than Japan.

Don't you get it? Germany's problems are Japan's problems, and vice versa. Anything that helps Germany helps Japan, and anything that helps Japan helps Germany.

I'd also add that the Japanese may not have been nearly as interested in the "vital" European parts of Russia as Germany was and may have settled for some of the east.

Japan was not interested in the European parts of Russia at all, but that is not the point. The point is they should have made a joint effort to isolate and defeat the USSR. Like the Allies, they can decide on the exact occupations zones after they've got victory in the bag.

How?
The same way as in the past.


Sorry, impossible. There is no reason at all, other than blind optimism, to think we're going to grow our way out of this problem. We're adding burdens much faster than the economy is growing.

I don't think seriously and sustainably cutting government spending as a share of GDP is impossible in a democratic welfare state

Bwahahaha! Never happen.

They beat them in WW1, but as Razib noted their ambitions were quite different in WW2.

Doesn't matter.

Considering how much mistrust there was between different service branches (even within the U.S) mistrust between Japan and Germany doesn't look so bad.

I would say it was a whole different order of magnitude. For one thing, the Service branches were forced to air and resolve their differences, and there was an overall authority (the President) to make final decisions. Between Germany and Japan, not only did they not really have serious discussions about their differences, but there was no final authority to make a decision. Simply not even comparable, sorry.

The lack of coordination isn't that surprising considering the vast distance between the two countries, with much of the space in between taken up by hostile territory.

Um, the US, Britain, and the USSR were also very far away from each other. There are lots of ways to get around that if you need to, as in fact the Allies did. In fact you could do a hell of a lot more by radio than the Axis did, keeping in mind they thought their communications were secure.

The relationship between Italy & Germany, while also pretty disorganized, is a better example of cooperation. Rome & Berlin made up the original "axis" (which logically speaking should be defined by two points!) and acted more like one.

In point of fact the European Axis is a terrible example of non-coordination. See Germany and the Axis Powers by Richard L. DiNardo:

"It seemed that whenever Mussolini acted on his own, it was bad news for Hitler. Indeed, the Führer’s relations with his Axis partners were fraught with an almost total lack of coordination. Compared to the Allies, the coalition was hardly an alliance at all. Focusing on Germany’s military relations with Italy, Romania, Hungary, and Finland, Richard DiNardo unearths a wealth of little-known facts that reveal how the Axis coalition largely undermined Hitler’s objectives from the Eastern Front to the Balkans, Mediterranean, and North Africa.

DiNardo argues that the Axis military alliance was doomed from the beginning by a lack of common war aims, the absence of a unified command structure, and each nation’s fundamental mistrust of the others. Germany was disinclined to make the kinds of compromises that successful wartime partnerships demanded and, because Hitler insisted on separate pacts with each nation, Italy and Finland often found themselves conducting counterproductive parallel wars on their own."

September 11, 2009 at 11:49 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

@hobbo,

The Japanese Amy in Manchuria (The Kwantung Army) was the elite of the IJA.

The Japanese division destroyed at Nomonhan was a newly raised unit, with no combat experience, inadequate training, few officers from the military academy, and was considered low quality. Soviet troops in the Far East tended to be "better than usual" for the obvious reason that the Soviets feared a Japanese attack throughout the 1930s.

The T-34 terrified the Germans, against the Japanese it would have been unstoppable.

The key to the campaign would be Japanese ability to cut the Trans-Siberian railroad and destroy isolated Soviet forces. Even T-34s need gas and ammunition, after all.

That USG was comfortable sending slow convoys through there doesn't say much about about Japanese capabilities.

The Japanese had the capability to stop those convoys at any time. They simply did not have the intention of doing so. (The ships had been reflagged as "neutral" Soviet vessels.)

As for threatening the Persian Gulf, no way. They might have been able to Pearl Harbor some of the ports, but there is no way they could maintain any forces that far west in the teeth of the Royal Navy.

The Royal Navy had no teeth in 1942. All they had were crappy ex-WW1 battleships. They would have been no match for the Japanese.

Vladivostok would have been defended, and the Japanese army could almost certainly have not beaten the Soviet army, at least not without pulling out of China, which the army was completely unwilling to do. And even if they could have taken Vladivostok, they couldn't have gotten much past it. Their logistical system couldn't even keep 75k troops at Khalkhyn Gol adequately supplied.

The Japanese probably could have cut the TSRR and taken the Maritime Provinces. Again, this presupposed a level of advance planning and coordination which the Axis did not have - and that's why they lost.

USG cut of Japan because of Japan's insane and pointless attempt to conquer China,

No, the US cut off the Japanese oil because the US was afraid Japan was going to attack Russia.

it isn't rational to start a war with the two most powerful countries in the world while 80% of your army is already busy fighting.

The IJA didn't have much to do against the US and UK.

The rational Japanese decision in 1940 was to realize that discretion was the better part of valor, make concessions in exchange for oil, and bide their time.

Only if you want to be turned into an American vassal / slave. Of course, that happened anyway, but I respect the Japanese for fighting rather than submitting tamely to humiliation and servitude.

a rational Japan would have worked closer with the Germans against the Russians, but so what?

Um, so that's the only way Germany and Japan can hope to beat the US, UK, and USSR. Geez, it's not that hard...

Japanese policy was determined at least as much by irrational factors as rational ones.

I disagree, and retreating into "irrationalism" as an explanation is a confession of failure as a historian.

It wasn't rational for the allies to give Hitler Czechoslovakia, or to sit in the Maginot Line while Germany was invading Poland.

Decisions that appear wrong in hindsight are not necessarily irrational. There was a perfectly rational basis for both those decisions. All this talk of British, French, and Japanese irrationality, prejudice, and institutional inertia just shows you don't understand the (rational) strategies of these actors.

September 11, 2009 at 11:49 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Leonard, if you hyperinflate the currency, how does that make $65 Trillion (in current dollars) in unfunded liabilities go away? If you hyperinflate the currency, then what you have to pay people for Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and military pensions will be hyperinflated right along with it. Social Security benefits and federal/military pensions are inflation-indexed, while Medicare and Medicaid are paid in "real service" terms, the cost of which rises even faster than inflation, so hyperinflation does not solve the USG's problem. All the people who get their handouts today will still be standing in line for their money after hyperinflation hits - except these people will need to bring wheelbarrows instead of wallets - and indeed there will probably be even more people waiting for handouts after the Messiah gets done. (For the same reason, default won't work. The day after default day, all these people will want their handouts just as they always do.)

The problem is structural - too many parasites, not enough producers - and you have to change the structure to solve it. Currency smoke and mirrors ain't gonna do it.

September 11, 2009 at 12:09 PM  
Anonymous Leonard said...

Anon, pick a name.

Of course you are right -- hyperinflation (or what I expect, inflation by a mere 100 or so -- call it hecto-inflation) will not eliminate any existing liabilities. It just makes them much easier to pay off in nominal terms, while generating political fury from those whose expectations are being ruined.

You note that some of these things are inflation adjusted, while others are in kind. Yes. But who is it, do you think, that measures inflation for this purpose? Do you think that they might, possibly, undermeasure it for some strange reason? And if they were having huge problems making ends meet, might they be tempted to undermeasure it more?

As for in kind payments, well, the point here is you are forcing a cramdown on someone, somewhere. We can look at two classes of people: producers and tax-consumers. Inflation crams down the non inflation adjusted tax-eaters hard. Assuming you tweak inflation correctly, it also cuts the hair of inflation-adjusted entitled tax-eaters -- just much less than the poor saps owning bonds and whatnot. But inflation is also eating up the wealth of the producers: they get paid, say, $1000 for an medical procedure. Then next year, it's $1000 still, but inflation was 20%... they complain, maybe you give them a boost of 10%. Still a cramdown. Everyone is tasting the pain; one nice aspect of that from the POV of the state is that the who/whom is as hidden as possible.

The net result of this is, of course, economic ruin. Yes, that is clear. If you think I am arguing that hectoinflation is a good idea, I am not. Just that it is the most obvious path out of the hole the USG is digging for itself. And that is mainly because a good fraction of dollars and USG debt are held by foreigners, that is, nonvoters. When push comes to shove, we expect them to be raped first.

September 11, 2009 at 12:52 PM  
Blogger Steve Sailer said...

"For example, one thing I always had trouble understanding about the history of World War II is why Japan never attacked the Soviet Union."

Japan attacked Russia in August 1939's Siberian border skirmishes, and got beat bad by Zhukov's tanks. They didn't want anymore of that after that.

September 11, 2009 at 6:11 PM  
Blogger River Cocytus said...

Gerard, I thought about your request, and I think I can do what you asked.

Cliff notes for the post:

1. Do not try to change the world, Change worlds (Francis of Assisi)
2. 'Sell your tunic and buy a sword.' : 'Here are two swords' : 'Enough!' (As in, cease with this thinking) (Christ)
2. In patience you shall possess your souls. (Christ)
3. Why do you resist the power? (St. Paul)
4. Blessed are the meek, for they shall possess the land. (Christ)

You may prefer a less religious flavor.

September 11, 2009 at 8:23 PM  
Blogger River Cocytus said...

Numberings may be subject to correction.. *shakes head*

September 11, 2009 at 8:32 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Japan attacked Russia in August 1939's Siberian border skirmishes, and got beat bad by Zhukov's tanks. They didn't want anymore of that after that.

Steve, what this elides is that after Germany attacked the USSR in June 1941, the Japanese high command began a contentious debate over whether or not to attack Siberia. The Germans repeatedly invited Japan to attack. The US was aware of this debate, and took steps to deter and distract Japan (e.g. the oil embargo and reinforcing the Philippines) because we preferred them to come after is than to gang up on the USSR. The threat to Siberia was real in late 1941, regardless of the events of 1939.

September 12, 2009 at 6:48 AM  
Blogger Blode0322 said...

The Royal Navy had no teeth in 1942. All they had were crappy ex-WW1 battleships. They would have been no match for the Japanese.

Assuming we're talking about people shifting forces where they are needed, I don't see why the UK couldn't have moved carriers. A lot of the big European Theater struggles for the RN were settled in 1940, (e.g. the Italians, the Bismark) which is why they felt they could move Prince of Wales to face the Japanese. Neither the fleet carriers nor the battleships were that useful against the U-boats (though the later escort carrier phenomenon was important against U-boats).

September 12, 2009 at 9:48 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Not all carriers are the same. British carriers carried a smaller number of very inferior aircraft - for example, the aircraft that executed the Taranto raid were fabric-covered biplanes. Japanese carriers carried a much larger number of very superior aircraft. A fight in the Indian Ocean between British and Japanese carriers would have led to total annihilation of the British.

September 12, 2009 at 4:30 PM  
Blogger Blode0322 said...

Sounds like a real paper-scissors-rock with Japan, the US, and the UK then.

The Japanese learned their air-to-sea attacks from the British. British carriers were better protected than US and carried comparable aircraft, often of the same exact model (e.g. the Wildcat). Thus British carriers performed better against the Japanese than US when they were fighting alongside one another.

British carriers carried a smaller number of very inferior aircraft. A fight in the Indian Ocean between British and Japanese carriers would have led to total annihilation of the British.

US fighter aircraft virtually always beat the Japanese in kill ratios. One of the worst US planes, the Wildcat, was comparable to one of the best Japanese, the Mitsubishi Type 0.

These overlapping, contradictory claims make up a conundrum I don't really think I'll solve at this point. Right now I'm still working out how the weakling M1 carbine can have so much greater muzzle energy and muzzle momentum than the M1 (Thompson) submachinegun. Naturally it's not the math I'm having trouble with, but the reputations.

September 12, 2009 at 8:12 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Japanese learned their air-to-sea attacks from the British.

No they didn't. The Japanese developed naval aviation technology and doctrine on their own from 1919-41 (Mark Peattie's "Sunburst" is good on this). The Japanese were studying torpedo attacks on shallow-water anchorages such as Manila, Singapore, Vladivostok, Hong Kong, and Pearl Harbor in 1939.

British carriers were better protected than US and carried comparable aircraft, often of the same exact model (e.g. the Wildcat).

The British used US aircraft later in the war but didn't have many of them in 1942. The tradeoff for "better protection" was carrying fewer planes.

Thus British carriers performed better against the Japanese than US when they were fighting alongside one another.

No they didn't. The British carrier task force in the Pacific was unable to match the American scale, duration, and intensity of operations, the British carriers suffered relatively more losses and inflicted fewer losses on the enemy, and the British kept fewer aircraft operational despite having more men devoted to maintenance.

US fighter aircraft virtually always beat the Japanese in kill ratios. One of the worst US planes, the Wildcat, was comparable to one of the best Japanese, the Mitsubishi Type 0.

This is not relevant to a discussion of the Japanese vs the British in the Indian Ocean in 1942, because the British had only a handful of US-supplied aircraft at that time. The British were primarily equipped with their own aircraft, which stunk, and British carriers carried inferior numbers of aircraft compared to Japanese carriers. Furthermore, the British had NO experience with multi-carrier operations in 1942. This would be a disaster for the Brits.

September 13, 2009 at 8:14 PM  
Blogger Studd Beefpile said...

Anon> About the Indian Ocean, the Japanese would have had very few bases to operate from, and those would have been far from where they were fighting. Japanese carrier aviation in 1941/2 was undoubtedly superior to British, but fighting that far from their bases would have been VERY difficult. Remember, the Japanese fleet was numerically inferior to the British and operating thousands of miles from your base of operations is not easy. America was able to do it in the Pacific by enormous expenditure of resources and because they had spent decades planning it and had specifically built their ships with the idea in mind. The Japanese and British were far more dependent on being close to bases, and Japanese in the Indian ocean would be FAR from their bases.

September 14, 2009 at 9:37 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

About the Indian Ocean, the Japanese would have had very few bases to operate from, and those would have been far from where they were fighting.

The Japanese would capture them if they needed them. Ceylon or Madagascar would have been do-able, since they were very poorly defended. The main goal would not be to capture territory but to interdict Allied supply lines to North Africa, India, and the Persian Gulf route to the USSR.

Remember, the Japanese fleet was numerically inferior to the British

Why? The Royal Navy was at a low ebb in 1942. It's not clear at all the Japanese would have been outnumbered, and in any case, in the numbers that mattered (carriers and carrier-based aircraft) they would not have been outnumbered.

September 14, 2009 at 11:07 AM  
Blogger American Monarchist said...

I have to say I'm disappointed in this installment. It's quite stunningly naive, chiefly about the nature of progressives. Especially this bit:

In exchange for abandoning the sadistic thrill of domination, Brahmins get to feel what life is like without the constant fear that Jesus is about to capture Washington and turn NPR over to Pat Robertson.

That sadistic thrill is what defines "Brahmins". You are saying they will give up their very essence in favor of living and letting live.

September 15, 2009 at 6:11 PM  
Blogger Studd Beefpile said...

Anon> You are MASSIVElY underestimating the difficulty of the operations you propose. Read this:

http://combinedfleet.com/pearlops.htm

To sum up, Pearl Harbor was a raid that lasted a single day, and it represented the absolute limit of Japanese logistical capability. Seizing a base on the other side of the Indian ocean would require a larger fleet (to carry the soldiers and their supplies) to sail farther, slower(and pearl harbor took almost 2 weeks of sailing), with a lot more fuel (enough to get there, fight and still be able to home if they failed). And the risks are enormous. Even if the IJN could have supplied that expedition, one or two lucky shots on the oil tankers, one submarine, and your fleet is stranded on the other side of the ocean, surrounded by enemies, and there's nothing you can do about it.

But really, it doesn't even matter if they could take some port, because it wouldn't do them any good. To make a port useful for repairing and refitting ships you need expensive equipment (which the defenders would likely sabotage) and skilled men to operate it. Even if their equipment was completely interchangeable (and it never is) Japan would have to transport significant portions of its shipbuilding industry half way across the world, which would mean it couldn't be at home building ships.

But even if, by some miracle, an intact port fell into their hands (which kind of happened at Singapore), it wouldn't do them much good. Fleets run through an enormous number of consumables, and Japan was short on shipping before the war even began. Without a flows of spare parts, replacement aircraft, ammunition, and sailors ships are worthless. Japan simply didn't have the cargo capacity to support a fleet that far away.

Of course, you can build more shipping, and they did build almost 1.7 million tons of it in '44. But more shipping wouldn't have meant an end to their problems. Cargo ships are very efficient but in 1942 Japan producing more than about 200k tons of oil a month while the navy alone was consuming 10k tons EVERY DAY. A single battle could consume as much oil as an entire year of peacetime operations. More shipping can't help when you simply don't have enough fuel to run your military, your war economy, and your shipping industry.

September 16, 2009 at 11:17 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Studd, the British occupied Madagascar in May 1942 because they feared Japan would occupy it and use it to interdict the sea lanes in the western Indian Ocean. The British know a thing or two about what it takes to support a fleet in distant waters, and they clearly thought Japanese use of Madagascar was a realistic prospect.

September 17, 2009 at 11:52 AM  
Blogger Studd Beefpile said...

Anon> And the US spent a bundle building defensive batteries up and down the west coast. Doesn't mean that a Japanese invasion of the US was feasible. The most ambitious Japanese plans for Madagascar were to have the Vichy regime build a submarine base for them, not station the fleet out there. Japanese subs, unlike their main fleet, WERE designed for super long range operations.

September 18, 2009 at 11:53 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

After a week or so of hysteria after Pearl Harbor, the US ceased to fear invasion, and West Coast defenses until June 1942 focused on defending against Japanese carrier-based air attack, which actually was feasible. The US never based any operational plans around the fear that the Japanese would invade the West Coast, and the Japanese never planned to do so.

In contrast, the British did take operational action based on the fear that the Japanese would move into the Indian Ocean, and the Japanese actually did make plans to do so. (The IJN plan to take Ceylon was not rejected on naval logistical grounds, but because the IJA said they couldn't spare the troops.) We should also note the Allies were aware that the Germans were agitating for a push into the Indian Ocean, and needless to say, the Germans were not agitating for anything that was impossible (such as a Japanese invasion of the USA).

In May 1942, the British sent a reinforced division to invade Madagascar and had another two divisions tied down in Ceylon. Meanwhile, they were getting ready to fight the Battle of Gazala with seven divisions, and had just been kicked out of Burma, where about two divisions plus some Chinese trash were defending the frontiers of India. If the British had three divisions defending against Japanese action in the Indian Ocean, when they had very serious problems in India and North Africa, then you either have to believe the Japanese threat to move into the Indian Ocean was plausible, or you have to believe the British were stupid.

September 20, 2009 at 8:04 PM  
Blogger L33tminion said...

Of course, what your lib does not realize that, since his cause is advancing, his opponent's must therefore be reversing.

Which cause? It's not like the Overton Window moves in the same political "direction" on every issue. On gay rights, the progressives are obviously winning and conservative efforts are just desperate attempts to stall. If you look at tax policy or corporate regulation, things are substantially different. And that Nixon's healthcare reform proposal would seem "too liberal" by the present congress's standards is telling. On issues like immigration, trade, and drug policy, I have no idea what direction we're going in.

Of course, if you define "left-wing" as "that which perpetuates the Modern System" and the Modern System as "that which controls public opinion", then of course the Overton Window always moves leftwards on every issue no matter how it moves, and "progressives" are left-wing, except when they're not. The liberal C'thulu never turns around because (this actually fits the metaphor rather well) the Leftwards path it's traveling on is non-Euclidian.

September 29, 2010 at 1:11 PM  

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