United States Congress elections, 2018
Heading into the election, the Republican Party holds a 52 seat majority in the Senate. Democrats hold 46 seats, and the remaining two are held by independents who caucus with the Democratic Party. The Democratic Party is on the defensive in 2018, as they are left defending 25 seats (two of which are held by independents), while only eight seats up for election in 2018 are held by Republican incumbents. The Democratic Party is further weakened by having to defend seats in a number of states which supported Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Heading into the election, the Republican Party holds a majority of 241 seats to Democrats' 194 seats in the House. Due to the general lack of competition, it is unlikely that the Democratic Party will be able to flip control of the chamber in 2018. Democratic gains are predicted though, as the party of a newly elected president has historically lost seats in Congress in the following midterm election.
Since 1934, the party of a newly elected president has suffered an average loss of 23 seats in the House in the following midterm. The party of a newly elected president has gained seats in the House in the following midterm only twice since then; Democrats gained nine seats in 1934 following Franklin D. Roosevelt's first presidential election in 1932, and Republicans gained eight seats in 2002 following George W. Bush's election to the presidency in 2000. Due to this trend, more House seats that are currently held by Republican incumbents are expected to be in play than in a normal congressional election.[1]
Special elections
Special elections will make up the bulk of Ballotpedia's congressional election coverage in 2017. Special elections to Congress occur when a legislator resigns or is removed from office. Depending on the specific state laws governing vacancies, a state can either hold an election within the same calendar year, or wait until the next regularly scheduled election. Since 2016 was a presidential year, there will be more special elections than normal for members of Congress chosen for cabinet positions.
Expected special elections
The table below displays a running list of the expected special elections to the 115th United States Congress.
| District | Prior Incumbent | General Election Candidates | Election Date | Winner | Partisan Switch? |
| Kansas' 4th | Mike Pompeo | April 11, 2017 | Pending | Pending | |
| Montana's At-Large | Ryan Zinke | May 25, 2017 | Pending | Pending | |
| California's 34th | Xavier Becerra | Pending | June 6, 2017 | Pending | Pending |
| Georgia's 6th | Tom Price | Pending | April 18, 2017 | Pending | Pending |
| South Carolina's 5th | Mick Mulvaney | Pending | June 20, 2017 | Pending | Pending |
| US Senator from Alabama | Jeff Sessions | Pending | November 6, 2018 | Pending | Pending |
Presidential data
Senate
The following section compares data from recent presidential and gubernatorial elections with the party of the incumbent in each 2018 Senate race. These trends can be used as an early indicator of expected competitive Senate races in the 2018 elections. All of these statistics predict that the Democratic Party will be far more vulnerable than the Republican Party in the 2018 Senate elections.
- There are 10 states with a Democratic incumbent that Donald Trump won in 2016: Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Wisconsin, Florida, West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, and Pennsylvania and only one state with a Republican incumbent that was won by Hillary Clinton in 2016: Nevada.
- There are 13 states with a Democratic incumbent that have a Republican governor: New Mexico, North Dakota, Missouri, Wisconsin, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Maryland, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Maine but no states with a Republican incumbent and a Democratic governor.
- There are four states that Barack Obama won in 2008 and 2012 that were won by Donald Trump in 2016: Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin but no states that were won by the Republican nominee in 2008 and 2012 (McCain and Romney) which were won by Hillary Clinton in 2016:
House
The following statistics were compiled using the Daily Kos' presidential results by congressional district data. They can be used to predict which districts are expected to be competitive in the 2018 elections.[2]
- There are 23 House seats held by a Republican incumbent that Hillary Clinton won in 2016: AZ-02, CA-10, CA-21, CA-25, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, CA-49, CO-06, FL-26, FL-27, IL-06, KS-03, MN-03, NJ-07, NY-24, PA-06, PA-07, TX-07, TX-23, TX-32, VA-10, and WA-08
- There are 12 House seats held by a Democratic incumbent that Donald Trump won in 2016: AZ-01, IA-02, IL-17, MN-01, MN-07, MN-08, NH-01, NJ-05, NV-03, NY-18, PA-17, and WI-03
- There are 20 House seats that Barack Obama won in 2008 and 2012 which were won by Donald Trump in 2016: IA-01, IA-02, IA-03, IL-12, IL-17, ME-02, MN-01, MN-02, MN-08, NH-01, NJ-02, NJ-03, NV-03, NY-01, NY-02, NY-18, NY-19, NY-21, PA-17, and WI-03
- There are eight House seats that supported the Republican nominee in 2008 and 2012 (McCain and Romney) which were won by Hillary Clinton in 2016: AZ-02, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, KS-03, NJ-07, TX-07, and TX-32
U.S. Senate
Heading into the election, the Republican Party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate. Republicans have 52 Senate seats while Democrats have 46 Senate seats. Two seats are held by independents, who caucus with the Democratic Party. The Republican Party maintained its Senate majority in the 2016 elections when it only lost two seats.
| U.S. Senate Partisan Breakdown | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of March 2017 | After the 2018 Election | |
| Democratic Party | 46 | Pending | |
| Republican Party | 52 | Pending | |
| Independent | 2 | Pending | |
| Total | 100 | 100 | |
There are 23 Democratic seats, eight Republican seats, and two seats held by independents up for election in 2018. In 2018, the Democratic Party will need to pick up three seats in the Senate in order to regain the majority they lost in 2014. This is unlikely as there are so few Republican seats up for election.[3]
U.S. House
Following the 2016 general election, the Democratic Party gained a total of six seats. They picked up seven seats while only losing one in Nebraska. The Democratic Party fell far short of the 30 seats required to retake the chamber. As a result, the Democratic Party would need to pick up 24 seats in 2018 to win the chamber.[4]
| U.S. House Partisan Breakdown | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of March 2017 | After the 2018 Election | |
| Democratic Party | 193 | Pending | |
| Republican Party | 237 | Pending | |
| Vacancies | 5 | 0 | |
| Total | 435 | 435 | |
Election issues
Click below to read about what members of the 115th Congress have said about the following issues.
See also
- United States Senate elections, 2018
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
- United States Congress elections, 2016
Footnotes
- ↑ The American Presidency Project, "Seats in Congress Gained/Lost by the President's Party in Mid-Term Elections," accessed February 6, 2017
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for the 2016 and 2012 elections," accessed February 8, 2017
- ↑ Slate, "Are You Dreaming of Democrats Taking the Senate in 2018? Time to Wake Up." November 14, 2016
- ↑ The New York Times, "House Election Results: G.O.P. Keeps Control," accessed November 15, 2016
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