63
64

Europe will face 'severe consequences' from hard Brexit, EU's chief negotiator admits (telegraph.co.uk)

EdwinChadwick が 投稿

全 147 件のコメント
並べ替え:
ベスト
トップ新着論争中古い順Q&A

[–]bored-data 67 ポイント68 ポイント  (35子コメント)

absolutely nobody is surprised at this. it has been evident from the start that nobody's going to 'win' if there's no deal at the end of 2 years.

[–]94percentstraight [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

Spreading the cost over 27 countries is going to be a lot less of a financial hit than the UK will face. It's the difference between an inconvenience and a major problem.

[–]wotadSupport UKIP - Hate Nuttall [スコア非表示]  (5子コメント)

I thought that the UK has no power or bargaining chips.

[–]I_miss_Chris_HughtonFiscal conservative, socially liberal and quite miffed off [スコア非表示]  (4子コメント)

when your bargaining chip is 'you'll hurt, but we'll hurt more' its still a pretty shit position tbh

[–]wotadSupport UKIP - Hate Nuttall [スコア非表示]  (3子コメント)

but everyone keeps saying we have nothing and they will just give us a shit deal

[–]pheasant-plucker [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

We have plenty to offer and could get a good deal. However we have three problems that limit what can be achieved in practice.

It's imperative for the EU that the deal we get is not add good add the deal we had while we were in the EU.

We have other demands over regulation and immigrate that limit what can be achieved.

We don't have enough time do work out a proper deal.

[–]I_miss_Chris_HughtonFiscal conservative, socially liberal and quite miffed off [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

its effectively not a bargaining position so they're not totally wrong

[–]TheBestIsaac [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

We have a few cards. But when we've played all our trumps Europe has a full hand left.

[–]G_Morgan [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

It is a bit of a contrast. It'll almost certainly hurt us more yet Europe is willing to just state the truth rather than waffle on about negotiation strategies requiring us to deny the sky is blue.

This is precisely why this kind of negotiating tactic is a terrible idea. The most likely result of all this is Europe will lose interest in trading with us as a premier partner. Negotiations are not about tricking your opponent, they are fundamentally about trust in the intent and capability of the other party. Nations make defensive and limited deals with nations that act like Del Boy Trotter and extensive and more beneficial ones with nations who aren't looking for a back stab at every turn.

[–]dublinclontarf -3 ポイント-2 ポイント  (5子コメント)

As far as the UK government is concerned (and Brexit voters) no deal is better than the current deal.

[–]redpossumGermans out, death to the Angle 4 ポイント5 ポイント  (1子コメント)

no deal is better than the current deal.

Well yes, but the current deal isn't the only option, hopefully. And if it is, that just shows they aren't the sort of group we want to be in a union with.

[–]AJaume_2Very sure not a Briton [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

If fools prefer no deal to the best deal possible, and you think what you written, then you are not the kind of people that anyone would want in their group.

[–]WhoAmI__NobodyKnows -1 ポイント0 ポイント  (2子コメント)

Yes, what's your point?

[–]dublinclontarf [スコア非表示]  (1子コメント)

It's a win if there is no deal, because that is better than our current situation.

i.e. our situation will improve if we have no deal compared to now.

[–]narynLeaning Right 24 ポイント25 ポイント  (2子コメント)

No shit, losing the 2nd largest economy, biggest military and most important country in international affairs is going to harm the Union.

[–]baspeyspfilthy centrist blairite 1 ポイント2 ポイント  (0子コメント)

In a recent report published by an EU group (found on this week's subreddit), it was calculated that our combined exports and imports were roughly in line with projected American exports and imports had TTIP been passed.

Basically- it was reported losing Britain would be like if TTIP had gone through, but obviously on the opposite.

[–]GeoffGBiz [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

More important than all that. The financial capital. Being cut off from London would be catastrophic for the EuroZone.

[–]deerkiller201 30 ポイント31 ポイント  (22子コメント)

No shit. Trade is a two way street. If France and Germany can't trade with Britain it will hit their export industries massively

[–]pheasant-plucker 10 ポイント11 ポイント  (6子コメント)

Proportionately it will be less of course. It's the same amount of trade, but the UK GDP is smaller. So as a proportion of UK GDP the hit will be greater (around 4 times greater).

[–]deerkiller201 6 ポイント7 ポイント  (4子コメント)

True but it's in everyones interest to continue trade after brexit

[–]pheasant-plucker 1 ポイント2 ポイント  (2子コメント)

Defintely. But it's one of several considerations. For the EU, it's vital that the benefits of membership are not extended willy nilly to non-members. For the UK, it's vital that free movement is restricted.

So the question is, does the economic impact outweigh the other considerations? If the economic impact is proportionately smaller, it's less likely to.

[–]wotadSupport UKIP - Hate Nuttall [スコア非表示]  (1子コメント)

i mean Turkey has a decent deal and we should be able to get way better.

[–]Statustxt [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

May has ruled out the customs union already so it can't be as good as Turkey's deal.

[–]taboo__time 0 ポイント1 ポイント  (0子コメント)

But there will be less trade.

You can't end free trade and not expect less trade.

[–]EchoChambers4All [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

Proportionately for the whole EU it will be less, for Germany and France it most definitely will not.

[–]EdwinChadwick[S] 4 ポイント5 ポイント  (1子コメント)

The European Union and the UK will face "severe consequences" if Britain leaves without a deal, Europe's chief Brexit negotiator has admitted.

Theresa May, the Prime Minister, has said repeatedly that "no deal" is better than a "bad deal" and said that the UK is prepared to walk away from the EU if necessary. On Wednesday she will trigger Article 50 and begin the formal process of leaving the European Union.

Michel Barnier, writing in the Financial Times, said he wants an "orderly withdrawal" and hopes for an "ambitious free trade agreement" after Brexit.

He said: "It goes without saying that a no-deal scenario, while a distinct possibility, would have severe consequences for our people and our economies. It would undoubtedly leave the UK worse off.

"Severe disruption to air transport and long queues at the Channel Port of Dover are just some of the many examples of the negative consequences of failing to reach a deal. Others include the disruption of supply chains, including the suspension of the delivery of nuclear material to the UK.

"While the 27 member states will find it easier to adjust - as they will still benefit from the Single Market, the customs union and more than 60 trade deals with their international partners - we believe it is in the best interests of both sides to reach a deal on the UK's orderly withdrawal from the EU."

He said that the EU has "nothing to hide" and favours "transparency and public debate". He said that he wants to "immediately address" a series of issues including the rights of EU citizens living in the UK and British citizens living abroad.

Theresa May repeatedly tried to settle the issue before triggering Article 50 but Germany refused to discuss the issue until negotiations had formally begun.

Mr Barnier said: "We must protect the rights of the 4.5m citizens who have found themselves faced with an uncertain future in the place they call home.

"The 27 member states, and the European Commission, will work tirelessly to preserve the rights of European citizens across out continent. We are ready to discuss this issue from day one."

He said that while there is "no price to pay" for leaving the European Union "we must settle our accounts", a suggestion that he wants to present the UK with a Brexit divorce bill. He also said that the UK must "assume responsibility" for the Northern Ireland peace process.

He said: "If we cannot resolve these three significant uncertainties at an early stage, we run the risk of failure. Putting things in the right order maximises the chances of reaching an agreement.

"This means agreeing on the orderly withdrawal of the UK before negotiating any future trade deal. The sooner we agree on those principles, the more time we have to discuss our future partnership".

He said that the UK and EU should continue to co-operate on security and defence. "The attacks in London last week tragically remind us of our common interest in the fight against terrorism.

"My personal conviction has always been that the UK and the EU share common values and interests. This will not change."

[–]lawrencecgn [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

Reading this it seems the consequences he mentiones actually hit the UK mainly. BTW, Europe includes the UK even after Brexit.

[–]tecraMan 7 ポイント8 ポイント  (17子コメント)

The EU sells £60Billion more worth of goods to the UK every year. So I guess that's what he means by 'severe consequences'.

[–]NotALeftist -5 ポイント-4 ポイント  (16子コメント)

Divided amongst the various member states, it's not that big of a deal. Germany can sell cars elsewhere. It's Britain that will be astronomically fucked.

[–]tecraMan [スコア非表示]  (9子コメント)

Germany, France, Italy are the main exporters to the UK. They make up 65% of the EU exports to the UK. If they have to face tariffs on the border selling into the UK, all of a sudden their companies will be making less bottom line. Less revenue = staff laid off.

If the EU want to hurt us, they'll hurt themselves in the process. Most of the UK's exports go outside the EU, and growing every year. Chemicals, shipping, technology, tools, services, are increasingly going to new growing territories. The EU as a market share of the world GDP is getting smaller and smaller.

The future lies in global trading with emerging economies.

The UK is the biggest buyer of German cars, French wine and Italian fashion. None of these industries want to penalize their biggest customer.

[–]eeeking [スコア非表示]  (7子コメント)

Most of the UK's exports go to the EU.

http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore/tree_map/export/gbr/show/all/2014/

In no realistic scenario will trade stop between the UK and the EU, it will just be a little bit less profitable.

[–]tecraMan [スコア非表示]  (6子コメント)

No they don't. Exports to the Rest of the World overtook EU in 2009.

[https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/ (https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/)

EDIT: The link you posted, included Russia, Norway, Switzerland, Albania in the 'Europe' category, so that's why it looks bigger than the rest of the world. When you add those to the rest of the world, you'll get the true answer ;)

[–]eeeking [スコア非表示]  (5子コメント)

The link I provided is data from 2014.

[–]tecraMan [スコア非表示]  (4子コメント)

Still shows more exports go to non-EU countries.

[–]eeeking [スコア非表示]  (3子コメント)

There's a discrepancy between the sources. The Harvard source shows ~60% of UK exports going to EU destinations in 2014.

[–]tecraMan [スコア非表示]  (2子コメント)

HM Revenue & Customs put 45% for January 2017.

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatistics/Pages/EU_and_Non-EU_Data.aspx

[–]eeeking [スコア非表示]  (1子コメント)

Interesting. What made exports to the EU plummet below 50% of total after Sept 2016?

Ninja edit: it looks as if they may always go down in the latter part of the year...?

[–]LABAW [スコア非表示]  (4子コメント)

Cars aren't textiles. They don't scale easily.

[–]NotALeftist [スコア非表示]  (3子コメント)

What?

[–]LABAW [スコア非表示]  (2子コメント)

You can't change target markets and production for vehicles. Light industries can be changed in a quarter.

The auto industry doesn't have that luxury.

[–]heeeeeepsnep [スコア非表示]  (1子コメント)

Germany sells a tonne of cars in the USA already. They will be fine.

[–]LABAW [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

Companies leverage their growth. Small things effect large company initiatives. It's a genuine fear and luckily there's plenty of time to prepare and soften the change.

[–]wotadSupport UKIP - Hate Nuttall [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

various states.. but let me guess france and germany are the top countries.

[–]Iamstheoneandonly 0 ポイント1 ポイント  (1子コメント)

Didn't take a genius to work it out but hopefully it will shut up the idiots here and in /r/Europe who keep pretending otherwise

[–]AJaume_2Very sure not a Briton 0 ポイント1 ポイント  (0子コメント)

That just indicate that you never enter in a deal with the UK if you know what is good.

[–]Couldnt_think_of_a 0 ポイント1 ポイント  (0子コメント)

Consequences will never be the same.

[–]simcar01 -1 ポイント0 ポイント  (8子コメント)

I reckon it is time we worked out what the hell the different terms mean in this whole process.

The European Union and the UK will face "severe consequences" if Britain leaves without a deal, Europe's chief Brexit negotiator has admitted.

That isn't "hard Brexit" at all. That is leaving at the end of 2 years without agreeing a deal on Art 50.

Hard Brexit refers to the relationship the UK has with the EU after Art 50 has been completed, not the separation agreement itself.

The "deal or no deal" refers to Art 50, not the ongoing relationship.

[–]chrisporter 3 ポイント4 ポイント  (7子コメント)

yeah, the dropping out without a deal is more "ultra" or "nuclear" brexit

[–]simcar01 -2 ポイント-1 ポイント  (6子コメント)

dropping out without a deal on Art 50 is equivalent to a Scottish UDI.

It really isn't going to happen and it would appear to be the easiest most straight-forward part of the whole process.

[–]NotALeftist -1 ポイント0 ポイント  (5子コメント)

Playing fast and loose with the lives of 65 million people there.

"It won't happen because I say so, so there. The 27 other members will all bend to our will because we are exceptional"

[–]Molywop [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

You're an exceptional moron.

[–]simcar01 -1 ポイント0 ポイント  (3子コメント)

Grow up.

How likely is it that we don't sign an agreement on Art 50?

Can you think of any reasonable stumbling blocks? Do you even know what it will cover?

[–]NotALeftist [スコア非表示]  (2子コメント)

Can you think of any reasonable stumbling blocks?

Is this for real? Seriously, are you not joking?

[–]simcar01 [スコア非表示]  (1子コメント)

Of course it was a real question...

What do you think are the most likely (or even slightly plausible) stumbling blocks to agreeing an Art 50 deal? So what will be the irreconcilable differences?

[–]NotALeftist [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

... The UK's legal and trade relationship with the EU...

[–]Eureferendumwatch [スコア非表示]  (6子コメント)

1) I never said Leave wouldn't win the referendum

2) I never said it wouldn't be a Hard Brexit

3) I never said there'd be a mass banking exodus from London to the EU

4) I never said hard Brexit wouldn't bring "sever consequences" to the EU.

I love being right and watching ignoramuses who throw abuse at any dissenting view, rowing back and pretending they never said what they actually did say.

[–]Kross_B [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

I love being right

So when is Bercow being removed?

[–]Mygore [スコア非表示]  (2子コメント)

Pretty sure most people thought it would be damaging for the EU. Unfortunately, the EU has one motivator greater than economic affects and that's maintaining its political unity. Therefore a lot of us believe (and I guess we will find out) that the EU will sacrifice economic wealth to ensure Britain doesn't perform as well outside the EU.

[–]TomPWD [スコア非表示]  (1子コメント)

Which is exactly why the eu will eventually fail. Once it stops serving the countries in the union for its own self interest instead, then thats the first domino falling

[–]Mygore [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

What are you talking about? The union are the countries, it serves them. The reason it will fail is if people try and get the good without contributing or taking the bad, which is literally what Britain is now trying do with leaving as it has tried for last few decades.

Its already tried to happen by nations refusing to take immigrants but are more than happy to take the funding and financial benefits associated with the Union. Populist parties promising the world and no side affects are cropping up all over.

[–]tecraMan [スコア非表示]  (1子コメント)

Like Alastair Campbell on Sunday "I never said we should join the Euro".

Back peddling liars.

[–]AJaume_2Very sure not a Briton -5 ポイント-4 ポイント  (6子コメント)

So what? That just points to the fact that trusting the UK is never a good idea. If you never enter in a deal with the UK, the breaching of the deal by the UK will be impossible, and you will no face 'severe consequences'.

[–]intergalacticspy [スコア非表示]  (1子コメント)

The UK has historically been extremely compliant with its EU obligations . It may make a big fight about agreeing anything, but when it does it generally complies with its treaty obligations, unlike other countries who will often agree and then ignore them. For instance, the UK and Ireland both joined the EU at the same time, but the Commission has had to bring 3 times as many infringement proceedings against Ireland. France has about 2.5 times as many infringement proceedings.

The reason a deal has to be reached now is because the EU Treaty is silent on the details of what happens when a member leaves the EU. Once a deal is reached there is no question of the UK not abiding by its treaty obligations.

[–]AJaume_2Very sure not a Briton [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

Well, now the UK is breaching all of them old deals.

[–]BaritBrit"Don't Know" for PM 1 ポイント2 ポイント  (1子コメント)

The French have been saying not to trust us for centuries.

[–]AJaume_2Very sure not a Briton [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

It is not that you did not attack them for centuries.

[–]APyritesApatite [スコア非表示]  (1子コメント)

That would apply if the deal stayed the same. The UK entered the EEC and it got turned into the EU. You should study some history, it just makes you look like a buffoon saying stuff like that.

[–]AJaume_2Very sure not a Briton [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

The UK has a say in how the EEC evolved. Of course I've no delusion about any love for democracy from the UK.